Kentucky Derby Preview

All of the hard work is done... now 20 horses will head to the starting gate on Saturday and race for about 2 minutes for the most prestigious race for 3yo's in the US. Here is the field for this year's Kentucky Derby!

Kentucky Oaks Preview

My Oaks preview this year won't be that in depth as in years past. However I really wanted to do a preview on this race. So here is the field for the 2015 Oaks!

Derby and Undercard preview

It's the biggest day of the year for horse racing in North America. For 20 horses it's about two minutes that stand between them and glory. Who will wear this year's Roses and be able to call themselves Kentucky Derby winner. Lets take at this year's stakes for the Derby card.

Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. 4yo+ 5 furlongs (Turf) $125,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Southern Dude Leparoux 5/G/118 Amoss

2 Havelock Gomez 6/G/120 Miller

3 Regally Ready Nakatani 6/G/118 Asmussen

4 Ghost Is Clear Rosario 5/G/118 Maker

5 Cactus Son Albarado 5/G/118 K. Smith

6 Chamberlain Bridge Mena 9/G/118 Calhoun

7 Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ) Goncalves 5/H/118 Caramori

8 Icon Ike Napravnik 4/C/120 Jones

I would love to see the old man Chamberlain Bridge win this, Icon Ike has a chance as well.

Grade 1 Humana Distaff S. 4yo+F/M 7 furlongs $300,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Jamaican Smoke Leparoux 4/F/118 Kenneally

2 Rumor M. Smith 5/M/120 Mandella

3 Same Cross Napravnik 4/F/118 Jones

4 Emma's Encore Rocco Jr. 4/F/118 Jerkens

5 There Is No Limit Krigger 6/M/118 O'Neill

6 Aubby K Prado 4/F/120 Nicks

7 Burban Lezcano 5/M/118 Kenneally

8 Byrama (GB) Rosario 4/F/118 Callaghan

9 Holiday Soiree Castellano 4/F/118 McCauley

Even without the defending champ Groupie Doll, this is a pretty good race. Emma's Encore surprised people last spring before tailing off, Rumor is looking for her first G1 win, and Aubby K could be a potential superstar. I'm going with Rumor in this race with Aubby K in second.

Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. 4yo+F/M 1 mile (Turf) $250,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Drama Drama Torres 4/F/118 V. Oliver

2 Channel Lady Bejarano 4/F/118 Pletcher

3 Daisy Devine Graham 5/M/120 McKeever

4 Frontside Goncalves 5/M/118 Carmori

5 Hungry Island Castellano 5/M/118 McGaughey

6 Stephanie's Kitten Leparoux 4/F/118 Catalano

7 Karlovy Vary Lanerie 4/F/118 Arnold

8 Marketing Mix Gomez 5/M/123 Proctor

9 Class Included Albarado 5/M/118 Romans

10 Stopshoppingmaria Velazquez 4/F/118 Pletcher

Class Included was cross entered into the La Trioanne. Hungry Island, Stephanie's Kitten, Marketing Mix and Daisy Devine in the same race? Sign me up! Marketing Mix is certinally the #1 turf female in the US, but I would love to see Daisy get it after being run down in her defence of the Jenny Wiley. Marketing Mix for second and Hungry Island for third.

Grade 2 Churchill Downs S. 4yo+ 7 furlongs $400,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Night Party Sellers 5/H/118 Huffman

2 Hierro Velazquez 4/C/118 Pletcher

3 Laurie's Rocket Lebron 4/C/118 Lukas

4 Handsome Mike Gutierrez 4/C/120 O'Neill

5 Unbridled's Note Nakatani 4/C/118 Asmussen

6 Pass The Dice Leparoux 5/H/118 Catalano

7 Politicallycorrect Rosario 4/G/118 Ward

8 Trinniberg Martinez 4/C/123 Parbhoo

9 Delaunay Napravnik 6/G/118 Amoss

Trinniberg ran in the Derby last year, Handsome Mike's jockey returns to the site of his greatest win and Hierro won the Derby Trial. I think Dubai took a lot of the Sprint champ, and if it rains Hierro moves up big time. Don't count out Pass the Dice who beat the Hard Spun colt in his last at Gulfstream.

Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. 4yo+ 1 1/8 (Turf) $500,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Middie Torres 5/G/120 P. Oliver

2 Slim Shadey (GB) Stevens 5/G/122 Callaghan

3 Optimizer Rosario 4/C/120 Lukas

4 Silver Max Albarado 4/C/120 Romans

5 Swift Warrior Castellano 5/H/120 Terranova

6 Jeranimo Bejarano 7/H/122 Pender

7 Bim Bam Santana Jr. 6/H/118 Moquett

8 Wise Dan Lezcano 6/G/124 LoPresti

9 Point of Entry Velazquez 5/H/124 McGaughey

This is the race of the day with Wise Dan, a last minute entry instead of going to the Stephen Foster. Point of Entry beat Animal Kingdom in what was that Derby winner's final US start before he won the World Cup. This will be Wise Dan's toughest race to date in the past 2 years, Point of Entry is no horse to mess with. Don't count out Bim Bam, Jeramino or Optimizer. All three have bit chances to upset the applecart as well. 

Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, 3yo 10F $2,000,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Black Onyx Bravo 3/C/126 Breen

2 Oxbow Stevens 3/C/126 Lukas

3 Revolutionary Borel 3/C/126 Pletcher

4 Golden Soul Albarado 3/C/126 Stewart

5 Normandy Invasion Castellano 3/C/126 Brown

6 Mylute Napravnik 3/C/126 Amoss

7 Giant Finish Espinoza 3/C/126 Dutrow

8 Goldencents Krigger 3/C/126 O'Neill

9 Overanalyze Bejarano 3/C/126 Pletcher

10 Palace Malice M. Smith 3/C/126 Pletcher

11 Lines Of Battle Moore 3/C/126 O'Brien

12 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo 3/C/126 Plesa

13 Falling Sky Saez 3/C/126 Terranova

14 Verrazano Velazquez 3/C/126 Pletcher

15 Charming Kitten Prado 3/C/126 Pletcher

16 Orb Rosario 3/C/126 McGaughey

17 Will Take Charge Court 3/C/126 Lukas

18 Frac Daddy Lebron 3/C/126 McPeek

19 Java's War Leparoux 3/C/126 McPeek

20 Vyjack Gomez 3/G/126 Rodriguez

So this is this year's field. Can the resurgance of Wayne, plus the unretirement of Gary be 1988 all over again (when they won with Winning Colors)? Will Kevin or Victor make history for their island of St. Croix? Can the newly announced Hall of Famer Calvin get #4? (the same for Gary) Will the two first time trainers Rudy and Chad able to come out of the shadows of their mentors? Will Eddie and Tony be able to add yet another Derby title to their family? (Eddie is the brother in law to John Servis, Tony's younger brother is Rick Dutrow) Will Todd and Johnny V get their second wins, but the first together? Will Kenny's dyanmic duo get the win? Can Rosie become the female jockey to win the Roses? Will Shug finally win after almost getting it done 24 years earlier? All these questions and more will be answered on Saturday. Here is the pros and cons for each horse.

Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten)

SCRATCHED will not be replaced by Fear the Kitten (Kitten’s Joy) who was the AE as the scratch happened after 9:30.

Oxbow (Awesome Again)

Pros: Same female family as last year's Belmont runner up, jockey and trainer have teamed up for 2 Derby wins together. Won the Lecomte, has been close in many preps for the race. Jockey going for 4th Derby win.

Cons: 5th in the AR Derby, jockey is coming out of retirement.

Revolutionary (War Pass)

Pros: Jockey going for 4th Derby win and was just announced as an inductee into the Hall of Fame, same owner trainer jockey combo that won in 2010, can overcome trouble. 

Cons: Is there too much pressure on him? Can he get thorough traffic fast enough. Jockey change.

Golden Soul (Perfect Soul (IRE))

Pros: Second on this surface in November, second in the Lecomte.

Cons: Had to wait to get into the race, 4th in the LA Derby and 6th in the Risen Star before that.

Normandy Invasion (Tapit)

Pros: 2nd in the Wood Memorial, buzz horse, owner was runner up twice since 2007, trainer's first starter.

Cons: Don't think as good as everyone says he says, ran off in a workout on Thursday, will be chasing the ghost of Eight Belles who has the same owner as he does and broke from this gate when she was second in 2008. 

Mylute (Midnight Lute)

Pros: 2nd in the LA Derby, jockey could make history by becoming the first female jockey to win the race.

Cons: Jockey change, 7th in the Risen Star.

Giant Finish (Frost Giant)

Pros: Ummm.... 3rd in the Sprial. Trainer’s brother won the Derby in 08 with Big Brown.

Cons: Waited till the last minute to enter the race, couldn’t win a NYB stakes race. Forced out Fear the Kitten who might not have a better chance then he did, but possibly belonged more then he did. 

Goldencents (Into Mischief)

Pros: Won the SA Derby, defending trainer, jockey trying to make history in becoming the first Black jockey to win in over 100 years, co-owner (although it’s only 5%) is newly announced Basketball Hall of Famer and National Champion Rick Pitino. 

Cons: Will the distance catch up to him, 1st time jockey has ridden in the Derby.

Overanalyze (Dixie Union)

Pros: Won the AR Derby, sire won the Belmont last year.

Cons: Slow race, his owner (although Mike Repole has been quiet during this week).

Palace Malice (Curlin)

Pros: Second in the Blue Grass, sire was third in this race in 2007.

Cons: 7th in the LA Derby.

Lines of Battle (War Front)

Pros: Won his final prep the UAE Derby, same female family as Dynaformer who has sired a Derby winner.

Cons: Never been on dirt, no European based horse has won the race, rookie jockey, Dubai has not been kind to horses when it comes to the Derby. Last US start was uptrack (abeit on grass).

Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron)

Pros: Won the Holy Bull defeating the 2yo champ, 2nd in the FL Derby, trainer’s brother in law won the race in 2004.

Cons: No horse from last year’s BC Juvenile is in the Derby this year, makes you wonder how good Shanghai Bobby is when healthy. 

Falling Sky (Lion Heart)

Pros: Won the Sam Davis, 3rd in the TB Derby.

Cons: Only 1 start outside of Florida, but that was a fourth place finish in the AR Derby.

Verrazano (More Than Ready)

Pros: Undefeated, won the Wood.

Cons: 1/2 brother ran poorly in last year’s race, unraced at 2.

Charming Kitten (Kitten’s Joy)

Pros: 3rd in the Bluegrass

Cons: Never been on dirt

Orb (Malibu Moon)

Pros: Won the FL Derby, hot jockey, great female family who has produced champions who have won at this distance. 

Cons: Morning line favorites haven’t done fantastic in the past, hopefully the post doesn’t hurt him. Jockey change.

Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song)

Pros: Won the Rebel in his last over his stablemate who is also in this race (Oxbow), has a race over the surface.

Cons: Longer layoff then others, 1/2 brother was second to last in last year’s race.

Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy)

Pros: 2nd in the AR Derby, 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club over this surface last year.

Cons: 7th in the FL Derby, 6th in the Holy Bull in two other starts at 3. Although he was injured in one of those races.

Java’s War (War Pass)

Pros: Won the Bluegrass after a poor start, 2nd in the TB Derby.

Cons: 0 for 2 at Churchill, but one of those starts was on turf. 

Vyjack (Into Mischief)

Pros: Won the Gotham and Jerome, 3rd in the Wood.

Cons: 20 post, first starter for trainer, many question marks onto weather he can get the distance.

This year’s Derby is really a coin toss, if this was a nine furlong race then most of these horses would have big chances. The ten furlongs though adds in some question marks. Even though Black Oynx had no chance, his scratch does change a few things. For one, Oxbow will not move over, so there is less chance for him to run into the rail. Also it means for the first time in several years, there won’t be 20 horses running in the race. The past week or so, I’ve been going back and forth between 4 horses and with the addition of Golden Soul, that went up to six. I have finally decided on four of them. After much consideration my pick for the 2013 Derby is Orb. I just feel he is the right horse for the distance and honestly Shug deserves it after Easy Goer’s duel with Sunday Silence in the 1989 Triple Crown. I also think it will come back to haunt Johnny V that he decided to stay on Verrazano. Revolutionary for second, Goldencents for third and Golden Soul for fourth. 

Hopefully everyone returns safe and sound!

Kentucky Oaks and Undercard preview

All the hard work has payed off, we are just about 24 hours away from the Kentucky Oaks and 72 hours away from the KY Derby! Today and tomorrow's posts will be about the Oaks card and the Derby card. I'm only going to be previewing the stakes races which will be running each day with pedigree notes on the Grade 1 races only (just to save a little time). Lets take a look at tomorrow Oaks day card.

Breeders' Cup Saturday Preview

Day 2 of the BC! Of course lots of great horses going including Havre de Grace, Goldikova, Flat Out, Gio Ponti, Sarafina, and many more!

3rd Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 1 3/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Breeders' Cup Marathon (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 115 lbs.; Older 125 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs.; $5,000 to pre-enter, $10,000 to enter, with guaranteed $500,000 purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (01:20 PM) (11)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Birdrun 5 H LA 126 Velazquez John R. Mott William I.
2 Baryshnikov 5 H LA 126 Smith Mike E. Maker Michael J.
3 Meeznah 4 F L 123 Queally Thomas P. Lanigan David
4 Pleasant Prince 4 C L 126 Rosario Joel Ward Wesley A.
5 Giant Oak 5 H LA 126 Bridgmohan Shaun Block Chris M.
6 Brigantin 4 C 126 Leparoux Julien R. Fabre Andre
7 Harrison's Cave (GB) 3 C LA 122 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
8 Afleet Again 4 C LA 126 Velasquez Cornelio H. Reid, Jr. Robert E.
9 Cease 4 G LA 126 Gomez Garrett K. Stall, Jr. Albert M.
10 Eldaafer 6 G LA 126 Castellano Javier Alvarado Diane
11 A. U. Miner 6 H LA 126 Borel Calvin H. Hanna Clark

Last year, Prince Will I Am had cut off A.U. Miner and Romp which led to Prince Will I Am being DQ'ed. However, it was the firstworks after the race that became the story line, Calvin Borel went off on Javier Castellano which led to fines for the both of them and a suspension for Castellano for careless riding (neither where suspended for the fight). This year, with defending jock Johnny V on Birdrun, defending champ Eldaafer gets a new rider... who happens to be one of the two jockeys involved in last year's fiasco. As for my pick in this race? I gotta go with Giant Oak. He won the Clark (via DQ) last year, and won the Donn earlier this year. The longer they go, the better he is. Birdrun for second, Pleasant Prince for third.

4th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $1,000,000. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1). FOR COLTS AND GELDINGS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight: 122 lbs.; $10,000 to pre-enter, $20,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. run on the main track at One mile.). (02:02 PM) (15)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Gung Ho 2 C LA 122 Smith Mike E. Maker Michael J.
2 Fantastic Song 2 C L 122 Castellano Javier Brown Chad C.
3 Shakspeare Shaliyah 2 C LA 122 Solis Alex O. Shivmangal Doodnauth
4 Farraaj (IRE) 2 C L 122 Callan Neil Varian Roger
5 Wrote (IRE) 2 C L 122 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
6 Coalport 2 C LA 122 Alvarado Junior Catalano Wayne M.
7 Caspar Netscher (GB) 2 C 122 Fallon Kieren McCabe Alan
8 Majestic City 2 C LA 122 Gomez Garrett K. Miller Peter
9 Daddy Nose Best 2 C LA 122 Leparoux Julien R. Asmussen Steven M.
10 Animal Spirits 2 C LA 122 Albarado Robby Stall, Jr. Albert M.
11 Excaper 2 C L b 122 Wilson Emma-Jayne Black Ian
12 Lucky Chappy (IRE) 2 C LA 122 Rosario Joel Motion H. Graham
13 Finale 2 C LA 122 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
14 State Of Play 2 C LA 122 Dominguez Ramon A. Motion H. Graham
15 Tequila Factor 2 C LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Catalano Wayne M.

Majestic City will be the first of the 3 Cal horses to keep an eye on. Shakspeare Shaliyah's has been tearing up New York, since he's switched to turf, Finale has been a monster. I think this is a race where you really need a jockey who knows the Churchill surface well. I'm sticking with Animal Spirts in here.

5th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $1,500,000. Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 124 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs. $15,000 to pre-enter, $30,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1.5 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (02:37 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Euroears 7 H LA 126 Bejarano Rafael Baffert Bob
2 Giant Ryan 5 H L 126 Velasquez Cornelio H. Parboo Bisnath
3 Aikenite 4 C LA 126 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
4 Hamazing Destiny 5 H L 126 Albarado Robby Lukas D. Wayne
5 Jackson Bend 4 C LA 126 Nakatani Corey S. Zito Nicholas P.
6 Force Freeze 6 G LA 126 Velazquez John R. Walder Peter R.
7 Amazombie 5 G L 126 Smith Mike E. Spawr William
8 Big Drama 5 H LA 126 Dominguez Ramon A. Fawkes David
9 Apriority 4 C LA 126 Rosario Joel Fawkes David

Honestly, Jackson Bend should be in the Dirt Mile. Although Big Drama is the defending champ, he hasn't made that many appearances in races. Amazombie, Apriority, Euroears and Giant Ryan have picked up the slack though. This is not going to be an easy race for BD, but he showed that an inside post didn't hurt him last year, I would not be surprised if an outside post doesn't hurt him either. He's my pick, Giant Ryan for second and Aikenite for third.

6th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 5 Furlongs Turf. Purse $1,000,000. Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 124 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs.; $10,000 to pre-enter, $20,000 to enter, with guaranteed$1 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awardsof 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (03:21 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Grand Adventure 5 H LA 126 Castellano Javier Frostad Mark R.
2 Holiday For Kitten 3 F L 121 Rosario Joel Ward Wesley A.
3 Broken Dreams 5 M LA 123 Gomez Garrett K. Proctor Thomas F.
4 Perfect Officer 5 G LA 126 Carmouche Kendrick Pino Michael V.
5 Great Attack 4 C L 126 Sanchez Jeffrey Ward Wesley A.
6 California Flag 7 G L 126 Valenzuela Patrick A. Koriner Brian J.
7 Hoofit (NZ) 4 G LA 126 Prado Edgar S. Motion H. Graham
8 Regally Ready 4 G LA 126 Nakatani Corey S. Asmussen Steven M.
9 Rapport 4 F LA 123 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph Werner Ronny W.
10 Havelock 4 G L 126 Albarado Robby Miller Darrin
11 Country Day 5 H LA 126 Graham James Margolis Steve
12 Camp Victory 4 G LA 126 Leparoux Julien R. Mitchell Mike R.
13 Caracortado 4 G LA 126 Talamo Joseph Machowsky Michael
14 Chamberlain Bridge 7 G LA 126 Theriot Jamie Calhoun W. Bret

The wierd thing is... the most logical winner Ben's Cat was not eligible for the race since he's not BC nominated (he won last weekend's Laurel Dash). Hoofit won on poly, but he wasn't the greatest runner in New Zealand, this is too short for Caracortado, but I don't think his connections wanted to face Goldikova. California Flag and Chamberlain Bridge have won the past two editions of this race, but haven't been the same horses this year. I'm going with Havelock who won the Woodbine Mile prep, Play the King and then followed up that win with a win at Keeneland. Regally Ready for second and Chamberlain Bridge for third.

7th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 123 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs. $10,000 to pre-enter, $20,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (04:01 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 The Factor 3 C LA 123 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
2 Shackleford 3 C LA 123 Castanon Jesus Lopez Romans Dale L.
3 Tapizar 3 C LA 123 Gomez Garrett K. Asmussen Steven M.
4 Tres Borrachos 6 G LA 126 Rosario Joel Jones Martin F.
5 Wilburn 3 C LA 123 Leparoux Julien R. Asmussen Steven M.
6 Irrefutable 5 H LA 126 Bejarano Rafael Baffert Bob
7 Jersey Town 5 H LA 126 Velasquez Cornelio H. Tagg Barclay
8 Caleb's Posse 3 C L 123 Maragh Rajiv Von Hemel Donnie K.
9 Trappe Shot 4 C LA 126 Velazquez John R. McLaughlin Kiaran P.

A very good field of horses here. Caleb's Posse and Shackleford could lock up 3yo honors here should Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo fail to hit the board in the Classic. However, the three year old with the most upside is Wilburn. He's already defeated those two in the Indiana Derby, and will have help with his stablemate Tapizar who won an allowance defeating Boys at Toscanova and Uptowncharlybrown in the race. Keep an eye on Jersey Town, he's hasn't won yet this year, but he did win the Cigar Mile last year and he's better at a mile then he is at seven furlongs. The Factor did defeat older in his first try, but lost to Amazombie in his next race. Goes here after a good work out by Euroears. I gotta stick with Jersey Town, he could be coming in the race just right. Wilburn for second and Tres Borrachos for third.


8th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/2 Mile Turf. Purse $3,000,000. Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 117 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs. $30,000 to pre-enter, $60,000 to enter, with guaranteed $3million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (04:45 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) 4 C L 126 O'Brien Joseph Patrick O'Brien Aidan P.
2 Sarafina (FR) 4 F 123 Lemaire Christophe P. De Royer-Dupre Alain
3 Dean's Kitten 4 C LA 126 Dominguez Ramon A. Maker Michael J.
4 Stately Victor 4 C LA 126 Smith Mike E. Maker Michael J.
5 Teaks North 4 G LA 126 Castellano Javier Sallusto Justin
6 Await The Dawn 4 C L 126 Leparoux Julien R. O'Brien Aidan P.
7 Sea Moon (GB) 3 C L 122 Moore Ryan L. Stoute Sir Michael R.
8 Brilliant Speed 3 C LA 122 Velazquez John R. Albertrani Thomas
9 Midday (GB) 5 M L 123 Queally Thomas P. Cecil Henry

Traditionally, this race is the race before the Classic. However, because of Goldikova it has been moved up to earlier on in the day. This is Europe's best chance to take home a race since the Americans are not the best group. Sarafina was the beaten favorite in the Arc, but her jockey is riding a high from his big win in the Melbourne Cup. Midday makes her first start in this race after running the past two times in the BC F/M Turf, she will try to become the second horse to win two different races (Zenyatta being the other). I'm going with a 1-2 girl power here with Sarafina on top, Midday a good second and Stately Victor to be the top rep for the home team.

9th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $2,000,000. Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1). FOR COLTS AND GELDINGS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight: 122 lbs.; $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (05:25 PM) (13)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Take Charge Indy 2 C L 122 Graham James Byrne Patrick B.
2 Dullahan 2 C LA 122 Desormeaux Kent J. Romans Dale L.
3 Crusade 2 C L 122 Leparoux Julien R. O'Brien Aidan P.
4 Drill 2 C LA o 122 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
5 Hansen 2 C LA 122 Dominguez Ramon A. Maker Michael J.
6 Prospective 2 C LA 122 Contreras Luis Casse Mark E.
7 Creative Cause 2 C L 122 Rosario Joel Harrington Mike
8 Speightscity 2 R L 122 Nakatani Corey S. Contessa Gary C.
9 Alpha 2 C 122 Gomez Garrett K. McLaughlin Kiaran P.
10 Union Rags 2 C LA 122 Castellano Javier Matz Michael R.
11 Daddy Long Legs 2 C L 122 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
12 Fort Loudon 2 C L 122 Jurado Luis Gold Stanley I.
13 Optimizer 2 C L b 122 Albarado Robby Lukas D. Wayne

The first major step to the Run to the Roses begins here. The last two times Michael Matz has run in major races at Churchill, he's won them both (06 Derby with Barbaro, 06 BC Distaff with one of my favorites Round Pond). He could have his best horse since Round Pond running in Union Rags. There are two Euros in the race, Daddy Long Legs whose a Group 2 winner, and Crusade whose a Group 1 win was a sprint, but should take to the dirt fine as his dam is La Trivata. Fort Loudon swept the male version of the Florida Stallion Stakes, the past two horses to do that? Big Drama and Jackson Bend who meet in the Sprint. Hansen is the unknown, yes he won his first two races by large margins, but those where at Turfway on poly. Take Charge Indy is a darkhorse in this race, his dam Take Charge Lady was a good stakes winner. Dullahan at this point of his career is ahead of his Derby winning brother, Mine That Bird. I'm going with Creative Cause, he was able to turn the tables on Drill last time out, and his style of running suits Churchill to a T. This might be a little bit long for Union Rags' taste, it wouldn't be shocking if he does get the win though. Take Charge Indy for second and Dullahan for third.

10th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $2,000,000. TVG Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 123 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs. $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (06:07 PM) (13)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Goldikova (IRE) 6 M L 123 Peslier Olivier Head Frederic
2 Zoffany (IRE) 3 C LA 123 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
3 Courageous Cat 5 H LA 126 Valenzuela Patrick A. Mott William I.
4 Mr. Commons 3 C LA 123 Smith Mike E. Shirreffs John A.
5 Gio Ponti 6 H L 126 Dominguez Ramon A. Clement Christophe
6 Get Stormy 5 H LA 126 Gomez Garrett K. Bush Thomas M.
7 Jeranimo 5 H L 126 Garcia Martin Pender Michael
8 Byword (GB) 5 H 126 Guyon Maxime H. Fabre Andre
9 Court Vision 6 H LA 126 Albarado Robby Romans Dale L.
10 Sidney's Candy 4 C LA 126 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
11 Strong Suit 3 C L 123 Hughes Richard Hannon Richard M.
12 Compliance Officer 5 G LA 126 Solis Alex O. Brown Bruce R.
13 Turallure 4 C L 126 Leparoux Julien R. Lopresti Charles

I was all ready to say that I think Goldikova would lose the Mile this year to Strong Suit... until his asst. trainer wined about not being able to work on the turf today (it's a lose/lose situation for both the Euro trainers who did complain and the BC IMO that's all I've got to say about it). This will be the last hurrahs for Goldi, Sidney, CC, CV, and Gio (possibly, he might have one more race in him). Turallaure won the Woodbine Mile last time out and could the US' best chance to defeat the Queen of the Mile. I've got to go with Gio in this. He's been second both times he's been in the BC and he got off the shined to get back in the winners circle. Also while her connections are okay with the rail, in a race like this you really never want to be there. Goldi because of her class for second and Sidney's Candy for third.

Last, but not least the Classic!

11th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, November 5th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $5,000,000. Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 117 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs. $50,000 to pre-enter, $100,000 to enter, with guaranteed $5 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (07:00 PM) (13)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Prayer For Relief 3 C LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Baffert Bob
2 Flat Out 5 H LA 126 Solis Alex O. Dickey Charles L.
3 Drosselmeyer 4 C LA 126 Smith Mike E. Mott William I.
4 Ruler On Ice 3 G LA 122 Gomez Garrett K. Breen Kelly J.
5 So You Think (NZ) 5 H L b 126 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
6 Ice Box 4 C LA 126 Nakatani Corey S. Zito Nicholas P.
7 Rattlesnake Bridge 3 C LA 122 Borel Calvin H. McLaughlin Kiaran P.
8 Game On Dude 4 G LA 126 Sutherland Chantal Baffert Bob
9 Stay Thirsty 3 C LA 122 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
10 Havre De Grace 4 F LA 123 Dominguez Ramon A. Jones J. Larry
11 Headache 5 G LA 126 Lopez Paco Maker Michael J.
12 Uncle Mo 3 C LA 122 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
13 To Honor And Serve 3 C LA 122 Lezcano Jose Mott William I.

Prayer for Relief is out with a fever. Here are the pros and cons for each horse.

Flat Out
Pros: Win at a mile and a quarter, great workout, buzz horse, finished ahead of Game On Dude in past race, could be a big weekend for sire and his brother
Cons: Really hasn't defeated fantastic horses this year, has already lost to Havre de Grace, race over the surface earlier this year was poor, mile and quarter win was slow (albeit in the mud).

Drosselmeyer
Pros: Distance should suit him well, has won over the surface
Cons: Might be a little too short for his taste, win was his maiden breaker, hasn't been that consistant this year.

Ruler on Ice
Pros: Distance should be okay, Belmont winner, coming off a 2nd place finish, has the defending jockey
Cons: Slop specialist (both wins where in the slop), might be too short for him

So You Think
Pros: On paper, he's the best horse in the field. Has wins over a mile and a quarter, good post.
Cons: Never been on dirt (as of this time he hasn't been released from quarantine yet), quick turn around (Arc 4 weeks ago, Champion Stakes 2 weeks ago and now the Classic, this doesn't include the travel time), NZ bred record not good in the Classic (Starcraft was seventh in 05 to St. Liam).

Ice Box
Pros: Last year lots, this year absolutely none
Cons: Oh boy, last in his last couple of races, has not won since his FL Derby win last year, is ambisously placed. 

Rattlesnake Bridge
Pros: 2nd at a mile and a quarter, has faced both Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty and done well against them, Classic winning trainer, one word: Calvin
Cons: Just started his career this year, worst loss was against horses he should have been able to beat, taking a step up in class.

Game On Dude
Pros: Good post, win at a mile and a quarter, track suits him, could make history with his jockey. Sire won the Classic in 98 over this track
Cons: Finished behind Flat Out in past race, will be tested on the front by other horses.

Stay Thirsty
Pros: won at a mile and a quarter, 2nd in the Belmont to Ruler on Ice, better of the two Repole horses, sire the runner up in 06 over this track
Cons: better at Saratoga then Churchill, ran poorly both times on this track, bad 3rd in his final prep.

Havre de Grace
Pros: Beat the boys (including Flat Out and Ice Box), won her prep well, 2nd at a mile and a quarter by a nose this year, coming in with the most consistancy, connections have good record in big races over this track (owner has 1 BC win, trainer has an Oaks win, and owner and trainer have 2 Derby runner up finishes), Sire won this race in 05.
Cons: Winner of that nose finish bombed in her next race, had a good but not great work, never won at a mile and a quarter

Headache
Pros: Won last time out
Cons: Everything else

Uncle Mo
Pros: Looks like he's over his illness winning impressively, won over this track last year, still has a chance at an award this year
Cons: reportly did not look good in his final work, never been over a mile and eighth, lost the last time he went two turns, asking him to do alot from an outside post

To Honor and Serve
Pros: Three year old with the most upside, won last time out, has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, Classic winning trainer
Cons: Record against high company is okay but not great, outside post.

So who gets the win? I gotta go with my heart and go with Havre de Grace. This would put her and Liam and inpresidented company as not only the second sire/foal combo to win the Classic (Awesome Again and Ghostzapper being the first), but the first father/daughter to do it. So lets go Grace! Flat Out for second and Stay Thirsty for third.

More importantly, I hope all the horses return safe and sound!

Breeders' Cup Friday Preview

It's that time! The Breeders' Cup has arrived. Today's post will be all about the Friday races. Much like last year's post, I will be doing a pro and cons for each the Ladies Classic contenders.

5th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $500,000. Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS. Weight 122 lbs. All Fillies allowed 3 lbs. $5,000 to pre-enter, $10,000 to enter, with guaranteed $500,000 purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (04:10 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Seeker 2 C LA 122 Leparoux Julien R. Asmussen Steven M.
2 Sum Of The Parts 2 C L 122 Maragh Rajiv Amoss Thomas M.
3 Blacky The Bull 2 C LA 122 Valenzuela Patrick A. Bonde Jeff
4 Trinniberg 2 C L 122 Velasquez Cornelio H. Parboo Bisnath
5 Shumoos 2 F L 119 Gomez Garrett K. Meehan Brian
6 Secret Circle 2 C LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Baffert Bob
7 Holdin Bullets 2 G L 122 Sanchez Jeffrey Ward Wesley A.
8 Jake Mo 2 C LA 122 Smith Mike E. Milligan Allen
9 Vexor 2 C L 122 Cohen David Kimmel John C.

The newest of the Breeders' Cup races, a good group of horses. Secret Circle is the hot horse, Jake Mo got off to a great start but has faltered a bit lately, Vexor won the shortened Nashua, Trinniberg was the runner up in the Hopeful. I'm going with Seeker who was third in the Nashua behind Vexor and Trinniberg. Vexor for second and Secret Circle for third.

6th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $1,000,000. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 2). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight: 122 lbs. $10,000 to pre-enter, $20,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One mile.). (04:50 PM) (16)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 My Gi Gi 2 F LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Koriner Brian J.
2 Dayatthespa 2 F L 122 Dominguez Ramon A. Brown Chad C.
3 Up (IRE) 2 F L 122 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
4 Stopshoppingmaria 2 F LA 122 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
5 Stephanie's Kitten 2 F LA 122 Velazquez John R. Catalano Wayne M.
6 Sweet Cat 2 F LA 122 Gomez Garrett K. Pletcher Todd A.
7 Royal Bonnie 2 F LA 122 Velasquez Cornelio H. Weaver George
8 Hard Not To Like 2 F LA 122 Smith Mike E. Cox Gail
9 Pure Gossip 2 F L 122 Curatolo Ryan Serpe Philip M.
10 Elusive Kate 2 F 122 Buick William T. Gosden John H. M.
11 Ann Of The Dance 2 F L 122 Nakatani Corey S. Wolfson Martin D.
12 Dear Lavinia 2 F 122 Lemaire Christophe P. Rouget Jean-Claude
13 Customer Base 2 F L 122 Leparoux Julien R. Proctor Thomas F.
14 Somali Lemonade 2 F LA 122 Solis Alex O. Matz Michael R.
15 Bourbonstreetgirl 2 F L 122 Talamo Joseph Contessa Gary C.
16 Karlovy Vary 2 F LA 122 Gomez Garrett K. Arnold, II George R.

Welcome back to the Breeders' Cup to the McNairs! They restarted their stable after selling their stock to Darley a few years ago. Their horse Elusive Kate has won Group 1 races in France. In matter of fact, many of these fillies could even do well in the dirt version (Elusive Kate, Hard Not the Like, Stopshoppingmaria and My Gi Gi). Stephanie's Kitten won the Alcibides last time out, but her connections sound like her career is best on the turf. Somali Lemonade could be the next Winter Memories, but the outside post hurts her. Hard Not to Like has already defeated boys twice, but her stakes win was on a soft turf against fellow CAN breds. Good news her jockey knows how to come from behind and should suit her running style well. Ann of the Dance also defeated the boys, but faltered in her two stakes tries. Elusive Kate is going to be hard to beat, but I'm going to try to with either Stephanie's Kitten, Stopshoppingmaria and/or Hard Not to Like.

7th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. $10,000 to pre-enter, $20,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (05:30 PM) (13)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Irish Gypsy 5 M LA 124 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
2 Great Hot (BRZ) 3 F L 122 Sutherland Chantal Avila A. C.
3 Turbulent Descent 3 F LA 122 Flores David Romero Puype Mike
4 Champagne D'oro 4 F LA 124 Nakatani Corey S. Guillot Eric J.
5 Musical Romance 4 F L 124 Leyva Juan C. Kaplan William A.
6 Switch 4 F LA 124 Rosario Joel Sadler John W.
7 Tar Heel Mom 6 M LA 124 Solis Alex O. Hough Stanley M.
8 Tanda 4 F LA 124 Talamo Joseph Mitchell Mike R.
9 Golden Mystery 5 M LA 124 Carmouche Kendrick Guerrero Juan Carlos
10 Tamarind Hall 4 F LA 124 Cohen David Englehart Jeremiah C.
11 Her Smile 3 F LA 122 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
12 Pomeroys Pistol 3 F L 122 Castellano Javier Tarrant Amy
13 Shotgun Gulch 4 F L 124 Gomez Garrett K. Trout C. R.

Historically speaking, winner of this race is the Champion Female Sprinter (the exception is Indian Blessing). This is probley the most wide open race of both days and even with Turbulent Descent in this race. Switch might be tired from a campaign that had her go all different distances, but she was the runner up in this race last year. Tamarind Hall was able to go from Finger Lakes, to stakes placement. Other then Turbulent Descent do not count out Her Smile and Pomeroys Pistol, especially PP whose always there at the end. I'm going with Tar Heel Mom, she bounced in her prep, but should rebound in this race. Switch for second and Tamarind Hall or Pomeroy's Pistol for third.

Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $2,000,000. Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (06:10 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Questing (GB) 2 F L 122 Buick William T. Gosden John H. M.
2 Candrea 2 F LA 122 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
3 Rocket Twentyone 2 F LA 122 Razo, Jr. Eusebio Howard W. T.
4 Miss Netta 2 F LA 122 Maragh Rajiv McLaughlin Kiaran P.
5 Grace Hall 2 F L 122 Dominguez Ramon A. Dutrow Anthony W.
6 Self Preservation 2 F LA 122 Rosario Joel Cecil Ben D. A.
7 Putthebabiesdown 2 F LA 122 Garcia Alan McPeek Kenneth G.
8 Homecoming Queen (IRE) 2 F L 122 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
9 My Miss Aurelia 2 F LA 122 Nakatani Corey S. Asmussen Steven M.
10 Northern Passion 2 F LA 122 Contreras Luis Casse Mark E.
11 Weemissfrankie 2 F LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Eurton Peter
12 Frolic's Revenge 2 F L 122 Velazquez John R. Wolfson Milton W.
13 Say A Novena 2 F L 122 Trujillo Elvis Plesa, Jr. Edward
14 Awesome Belle 2 F L 122 Jurado Luis Gold Stanley I.

Of the two Europeans, Questing has the better chance (has had sibs win on dirt), Homecoming Queen's half sib also has dirt experience, but then again Dylan Thomas got a beat down by Bernardini in the JCGC. This is the first of the East vs West showdowns to watch. Weemissfrankie hails from the West; Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia are from the East. Northern Passion reps Canada, and Awesome Belle hails from the same owner, sire and trainer as Awesome Feather. This past weekend's Pocahontas was going to be an indicator of how well this Juvy would have turn out. I gotta say... Weemissfrankie is going to be very hard to beat in this race. Even with her post position her running style might be okay. I rather seen Questing off the rail since she's never been on dirt so has not had dirt kicked in her face. Those are my top two with Grace Hall in third.

9th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 3/8 Mile Turf. Purse $2,000,000. Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 115 lbs. Older, 124 lbs. $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner,1% to second and 0.55% to third. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One and One Fourth mile.). (06:50 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Dubawi Heights (GB) 4 F L 124 Rosario Joel Callaghan Simon
2 Stacelita (FR) 5 M L 124 Dominguez Ramon A. Brown Chad C.
3 Harmonious 4 F LA 124 Garcia Martin Shirreffs John A.
4 Cambina (IRE) 3 F LA 120 Gomez Garrett K. Bonde Jeff
5 Nahrain (GB) 3 F L 120 Dettori Lanfranco Varian Roger
6 Announce (GB) 4 F 124 Guyon Maxime H. Fabre Andre
7 Aruna 4 F LA 124 Leparoux Julien R. Motion H. Graham
8 Perfect Shirl 4 F LA 124 Velazquez John R. Attfield Roger L.
9 Shared Account 5 M LA 124 Prado Edgar S. Motion H. Graham
10 Distorted Legacy 4 F L 124 Maragh Rajiv Penna, Jr. Angel J.
11 Dynaslew 5 M LA 124 Nakatani Corey S. Benzel Seth
12 Misty For Me (IRE) 3 F L 120 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.

Two of the major players opted for the Turf, so this race came up a little bit of the "light side". Stacelita has done nothing wrong since her US debut which she finished third in. Nahrain will be Frankie's only mount on both cards thanks to suspention that starts on Saturday. Shared Account is the defending champ, but she hasn't had the same form that she did last year. Aruna had the option of going in the Ladies Classic, but goes here instead. I gotta stick with my girl Cambina, she's had some bad luck lately. Distance will def help her cause. Perfect Shirl for second (since someone who I assume works for her owner Chuck Fipke has an account for her sire Perfect Soul) and Stacelita for third.

Last, but not least. No Blind Luck, No Zazu, No Havre de Grace? No Problem!

10th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $2,000,000. Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-year-olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-year-olds, 116 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (07:30 PM) (10)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Miss Match (ARG) 6 M LA b 124 Gomez Garrett K. Drysdale Neil D.
2 Pachattack 5 M LA b 124 Maragh Rajiv Butler Gerard A.
3 It's Tricky 3 F LA 121 Dominguez Ramon A. McLaughlin Kiaran P.
4 Satans Quick Chick 5 M LA 124 Prado Edgar S. Reed Eric R.
5 Ask The Moon 6 M LA 124 Castellano Javier Wolfson Martin D.
6 Royal Delta 3 F LA 121 Lezcano Jose Mott William I.
7 Ultra Blend 5 M L 124 Flores David Romero Sherman Art
8 Plum Pretty 3 F L 121 Bejarano Rafael Baffert Bob
9 Medaglia D'amour 5 M LA b 124 Valenzuela Patrick A. Cecil Ben D. A.
10 Super Espresso 4 F LA 124 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.

Here we go the Ladies Classic Pros and Cons.

Miss Match
Pros: Returns to female compition, 4th at this distance last time out
Cons: Hasn't shown the same spark she did in her first two races in the West

Pachattack
Pros: Has been consistant in the US and Canada, 2nd on dirt, has won on the Main Track
Cons: Might be too short, her lone win in NA was on poly, lost to a horse who bombed in California

It's Tricky
Pros: Has beaten Plum Pretty and Turbulent Descent, multiple G1 winner, should love the Churchill surface, cooler weather
Cons: Can be antsy so the crowd could effect her, might be tailing off from a strong summer campagin, not a great second in her last start, will be facing older for the first time

Satan's Quick Chick
Pros: Dam's sister is the dam to Union Rags (Juvenile favorite), 3rd to Havre de Grace last time out
Cons: Hasn't won since January, Grace destroyed the field in the Beldame, her previous graded stakes trys this year haven't been successful.

Ask the Moon
Pros: Won two Grade 1's this summer, Churchill should suit her running style well
Cons: GREEN! She did not face Grace in those two G1's, she did not do well in California.

Royal Delta
Pros: Won the Alabama defeating Plum Pretty and It's Tricky, 2nd to Grace in the Beldame.
Cons: Really there's not much con, her worst loss was in Florida, the only thing I can think of is that she's lightly raced.

Ultra Blend
Pros: Hasn't done much wrong this year, 2nd to Zazu in the Lady's Secret, could be a dark horse
Cons: Never been outside of California.

Plum Pretty
Pros: Won on this track earlier in the year, rebounded from an okay summer last time out
Cons: Will be facing older for the first time, might be a tad longer then she really wants to go, dispite winning at this distance.

Medaglia D'amour
Pros: Uhh... PVal! And has main track experience
Cons: Never raced on dirt, never has been out of California, not really much going for her

Super Espresso
Pros: Bred simlar to Rachel Alexandra (MDO out of a Forty Niner mare, Rachel is of course out of a Roar mare, Roar is by Forty Niner), did well in stakes company especially G1's, will enjoy the return to dirt.
Cons: Has tailed off a bit since her good Ruffian showing, outside post might hurt her a bit, trainer and jockey where involved in that Life at Ten feisco last year, so there might be people who might bet against her because of that.

So who wins the race? I'm going with Royal Delta, I just think that if that the Beldame was better then people say it was and a dry track will be something she should prob. love. Ultra Blend for second and Super Espresso for third.

A Birthday Wish

Please keep Churchill Downs and the city of Louisville in your thoughts. A tornado touched down there tonight and the reports of 4 barns (including those of Jinks Fires and Carl Nafzger) being destroyed. There is no racing tomorrow at the track.

I'll be back Friday with regular posts again.

Oaks and Derby Predictions

So this is it, Derby weekend is finally upon us. Lets take a look at both fields for the Oaks and Derby.

Race 11 - 5:45 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5 / Oaks-Derby Double Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pick 3
STAKES Kentucky Oaks (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000. For Purposes Of This Preference The Graded Status Of Each Race Shall Be The Graded Status Assigned To The Race By The International Cataloguing Standards Committee In Part I Of The International Cataloguing Standards As Published By The Jockey Club Information Systems, Incorporated Each Year. One And One Eighth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Joyful Victory (ON) 3/F LA M E Smith 121 J L Jones 5/2
2 2 Lilacs and Lace (KY) 3/F LA J Castellano 121 J P Terranova, II 12/1
3 3 Summer Soiree (KY) 3/F LA G Saez 121 H G Motion 5/1
4 4 Kathmanblu (KY) 3/F LA J R Leparoux 121 K G McPeek 4/1
5 5 Suave Voir Faire (KY) 3/F LA M Mena 121 D M Smithwick, Jr. 50/1
6 6 Zazu (KY) 3/F LA J Rosario 121 J W Sadler 4/1
7 7 Her Smile (VA) 3/F LA G K Gomez 121 T A Pletcher 20/1
8 8 Bouquet Booth (KY) 3/F LA J R Velazquez 121 S Margolis 20/1
9 9 Daisy Devine (KY) 3/F LA J Graham 121 A McKeever 20/1
10 10 Street Storm (KY) 3/F LA S Bridgmohan 121 S Margolis 50/1
11 11 Holy Heavens (FL) 3/F LA K J Desormeaux 121 B Chatters 50/1
12 12 Plum Pretty (PA) 3/F LA M Garcia 121 B Baffert 5/1
13 13 St. John's River (KY) 3/F L R Napravnik 121 A Leggio, Jr. 30/1

A lot of people think this is a better race then the Derby this year. And I agree, still with the defection of R Heat Lightning who was injured, this is a wide open race. I'm going to throw out Suave Vior Faire, Street Storm and Her Smile right away, since none of them really deserve or should be in this race. I think the one reason why Holy Heavens has high odds is because she didn't run well against Joyful Victory. Zazu is the one who scares me the most, as she's probley the best closer in the race but she's coming off a layoff. Plum Pretty had the most impressive win, but she has yet to do well against good horses. Lilacs and Lace and Bouquet Booth are the two in here by Flower Alley, the good news is history is on his side. The past 3 Oaks winners have been out of their sire's first crops. LL and BB are both out of Alley's first crop. However, BB was orignally supposed to be ridden by Robby Alberado, but gets a jockey change because he has recieved a broken nose in a spill. Katmanblu all of a sudden is not the horse she once was. Joyful Victory is the horse to beat off of her 2 visually impressive wins at Oaklawn. When it's said and done, I think the winner will be coming out of one of the hottest preps the past couple of years. No I'm not talking about the Fantasy. I'm talking about the Fair Grounds Oaks. I think Daisy Devine will be your 2011 Kentucky Oaks winner. Why do I think this way? She's coming in under the radar, her connections are not well known and since 2004 4 FG Oaks winners (Ashado, Summerly, Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra) have gone onto win the Kentucky Oaks. Now granted all four had one more prep underneath them (Ashado, Summerly and Proud Spell all lost in the Ashland, while Rachel won the Fantasy), but that shouldn't effect her too much. Plus her name is Daisy and that's the name of my late dog. Second I have St. John's River who was closing like a train on Daisy in the FG Oaks. Her trainer also trained the late great Happy Ticket, and her owner/breeder owns the farm where Lotta Kim (Rachel's mom) is boarded. Which means if she wins, she will become the 2nd Oaks winner in 3 years to be born at Heaven Trees. The one thing I worry is that niether of her sire's top two foals (her full sister Panty Raid and my one of my all time favorite horses Prom Shoes) where fond of Churchill. Still I hope she does well. Third either Joyful Victory or Zazu.

Churchill Downs - May 7, 2011

Race 11 - 6:24 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
STAKES Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I)

Purse $2,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds With An Entry Fee Of $25,000 Each And A Starting Fee Of $25,000 Each. One And One Fourth Miles.
1 1 Archarcharch (KY) 3/C L J K Court 126 W H Fires 10/1
2 2 Brilliant Speed (FL) 3/C LA J Rosario 126 T Albertrani 30/1
3 3 Twice the Appeal (KY) 3/C LA C H Borel 126 J Bonde 20/1
4 4 Stay Thirsty (KY) 3/C LA R A Dominguez 126 T A Pletcher 20/1
5 5 Decisive Moment (FL) 3/C LA K D Clark 126 J D Arias 30/1
6 6 Comma to the Top (FL) 3/G LA P A Valenzuela 126 P Miller 30/1
7 7 Pants On Fire (KY) 3/C LA R Napravnik 126 K J Breen 20/1
8 8 Dialed In (KY) 3/C LA J R Leparoux 126 N P Zito 4/1
9 9 Derby Kitten (KY) 3/C LA J Castellano 126 M J Maker 30/1
10 10 Twinspired (KY) 3/C LA M E Smith 126 M J Maker 30/1
11 11 Master of Hounds (KY) 3/C LA G K Gomez 126 A P O'Brien 30/1
12 12 Santiva (KY) 3/C LA S Bridgmohan 126 E Kenneally 30/1
13 13 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C LA R Maragh 126 K Ritvo 12/1
14 14 Shackleford (KY) 3/C LA J L Castanon 126 D L Romans 12/1
15 15 Midnight Interlude (KY) 3/C LA V Espinoza 126 B Baffert 10/1
16 16 Animal Kingdom (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 H G Motion 30/1
17 17 Soldat (KY) 3/C LA A Garcia 126 K P McLaughlin 12/1
18 18 Uncle Mo (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 T A Pletcher 9/2
19 19 Nehro (KY) 3/C LA C S Nakatani 126 S M Asmussen 6/1
20 20 Watch Me Go (FL) 3/C L R Bejarano 126 K O'Connell 50/1

Juvy jinx! Juvy jinx! As you have already heard by now, Uncle Mo will not be going in this year's Derby. I do have some feelings on this (including why was he entered in the first place when he was not 100%), but I'll sound thoses if he doesn't run again. Because of that Animal Kingdom gets the big boost by getting Johnny V to replace Robby. Somewhat funny that Graham defeated Mo and Johnny in the Wood with Toby's Corner. The winner of the draw was Dialed In, the eight is the perfect postion for his type of running style. He could have first jump on everyone. The one who got the worst, Nehro and Watch Me Go. What not my boy Archarcharch? Pshh the 1 post is nothing. To tell you the truth, I almost cried when I saw he got the 1 hole. While many people make it out to be a death sentence, but he could be the one horse that might be okay with the one hole. Would I like him off the rail? Sure, you never want to be on the rail in the Derby, but it happens. Twice the Appeal has Calvin, but I don't even think he can win 3 in a row. Master of Hounds is a bit of a emigma. He's never run on dirt (niether has Animal Kingdom), he hasn't won a stakes race, he finished behind Soldat in the BCJT last year, and he has a jock that got bounced off the 3yo Champ last year. With that being said I was impressed by the UAE Derby runner up, the winner is going to the Epsom Oaks, so it will be interesting how he flatters her. There are three horses who have female trainers or rider. Of those three, I think Mucho Macho Man has the best chance. He would also become the youngest Derby winner and his trainer Kathy Rivto would become the first female trainer to win the race. Watch Me Go has the worst chance of the three no offence to his trainer Kathleen O'Connell. The third one is Pants on Fire, I somewhat want him to win since his jockey is a local, Rosie Napravnik would become the first woman rider to win the race. However, Louisiana hasn't been the best spot lately for horses (although Nehro did come back to finish second in the AR Derby).

So who is my pick? Post aside, I'm sticking with my heart and head. My pick for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is Archarcharch. I believe he will give Jon Court a Derby win after being taken off Line of David last year and I would love to see Jinks Fires come out of his Hall of Fame brother Earlie's shadow. Mucho Macho Man for second and Pants on Fire for third.

So that's it! I'll be back next week for reaction.

Breeders' Cup Saturday Preview

Here we go with Day 2 of the BC! Here are the races along with my picks. Lets just hope that today is much better then yesterday.

4th (1:50)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2)
1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Typhoon Slew Leparoux J R Maker Michael J 122 LA 15-1
2 2 Deciphering Dreams Dominguez R A Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 L 20-1
3 3 Mantoba (GB) Dettori L Meehan Brian 122 L 5-1
4 4 Air Support Maragh R McGaughey III C R 122 L 8-1
5 5 Master of Hounds Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 L 9-2
6 6 Utley Buick W Gosden John H M 122 6-1
7 7 Willcox Inn Velazquez J R Stidham Michael 122 LA 20-1
8 8 Banned Rosario J Proctor Thomas F 122 LA 10-1
9 9 Soldat Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 122 LA 8-1
10 10 Madman Diaries Sanchez J Ward Wesley A 122 L 12-1
11 11 Rough Sailing Napravnik A R Stidham Michael 122 LA 15-1
12 12 Humble and Hungry Peslier O Correas Ignacio IV 122 LA 20-1
13 13 Pluck Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 6-1

Master of Hounds is the favorite off doing well in a Group 1 last time out, but I'm going with Utley. He's a half to a 2yo Champ in Rainbow View and is also a half to Just as Well. Plus he's naemd after the Phillies second baseman. Air Support for second and Soldat for third.

5th (2:30)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1)6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Big Drama Coa E M Fawkes David 126 L 7-2
2 2 Girolamo Garcia Alan bin Suroor Saeed 126 L 3-1
3 3 Wise Dan Bejarano R Lopresti Charles 124 LA 10-1
4 4 Hamazing Destiny Rosario J Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 20-1
5 5 Smiling Tiger Baze R A Bonde Jeff 124 LA 6-1
6 6 Pashito the Che Castellano J J Lake Scott A 126 LA 15-1
7 7 Kinsale King Garcia M O'Callaghan Carl 126 LA 8-1
8 8 Cash Refund Velazquez J R Margolis Steve 126 LA 20-1
9 9 Supreme Summit Gomez G K Puype Mike 126 LA 15-1
10 10 Riley Tucker Dominguez R A Asmussen Steven M 126 LA 8-1
11 11 Atta Boy Roy Borel C H Lund Valorie 126 LA 12-1
12 12 Warrior's Reward Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R 126 L 12-1

This is really a race where you could say it's Girolamo vs the field. Big Drama always does well, but I think he'll throw a clunker here. Kinsale King and Smiling Tiger are probley synthetic specialists. Atta Boy Roy won at Churchill earlier this year and Warrior's Reward is always money. My pick? I gotta stay with Girolamo with Warrior's Reward a very close secon and Pashito the Che for third.

6th (3:15)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G2)5 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Chamberlain Bridge Theriot H J II Calhoun W. B 126 LA 6-1
2 2 Central City Albarado R J Werner Ronny 126 LA 12-1
3 3 Stradivinsky Velazquez J R Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 10-1
4 4 Unzip Me Bejarano R Jones Martin F 123 LA 8-1
5 5 Silver Timber Leparoux J R Brown Chad C 126 LA 4-1
6 6 Waveline Dettori L Cecil B D A 123 LA 20-1
7 7 Bridgetown Trujillo E McPeek Kenneth G 124 LA 12-1
8 8 Quick Enough Valenzuela P A O'Neill Doug 126 LA 8-1
9 9 Rose Catherine Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 121 LA 6-1
10 10 Due Date Gomez G K Margolis Steve 126 LA 15-1
11 11 Grand Adventure Husbands P Frostad Mark 126 LA 12-1
12 12 California Flag Espinoza V Koriner Brian 126 L 12-1
13 13 Tropic Storm Flores D R Dollase Craig 126 Blk-On LA 15-1
14 14 Canadian Ballet Desormeaux K J Rice Linda 123 LA 20-1
15 AE Yield Bogey Samyn J L Kelly Patrick J 126 LA 50-1

The defending champ California Flag hasn't really shown the form he's shown the past two years. Silver Timber seems to be very verable here. I gotta go with Rose Cathrine, she just seems to be coming into the race the best. In matter of fact I'm going to make it a filly exacta as I have Canadian Ballet finishing in second and Grand Adventure for third.

7th (3:55)
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Biondetti Ajtebi A Al Zarooni Mahmood 122 L 12-1
2 2 Boys At Tosconova Dominguez R A Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 L 5-2
3 3 J. B.'s Thunder Bridgmohan S X Stall Albert M Jr 122 LA 12-1
4 4 J P's Gusto Valenzuela P A Hofmans David 122 L 10-1
5 5 Riveting Reason Espinoza V Cho Myung Kwon 122 Blk-On L 30-1
6 6 Stay Thirsty Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 8-1
7 7 Uncle Mo Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 7-5
8 8 Murjan Bejarano R Miller Darrin 122 L 30-1
9 9 Rogue Romance Leparoux J R McPeek Kenneth G 122 LA 30-1
10 10 Jaycito Smith M E Mitchell Mike 122 LA 8-1

Everyone has their eyes on Uncle Mo and Boys at Toscanova. However, I think Stay Thirsty, Biondetti, Jaycito and Rouge Romance will finish in front of the two of them. Not nessarly in that order, but I do think that Stay Thirsty will be the winner and stamp himself as the early Derby favorite. Murjan is a bit of an unknown, but could be an interesting horse next year.

8th (4:40)
TVG Breeders' Cup Mile (G1)1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Beethoven (IRE) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 123 L 20-1
2 2 Society's Chairman Leparoux J R Attfield Roger L 126 LA 20-1
3 3 Gio Ponti Dominguez R A Clement Christophe 126 L 4-1
4 4 Court Vision Albarado R J Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 12-1
5 5 Delegator (GB) Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 126 L 12-1
6 6 Paco Boy (IRE) Moore R L Hannon Richard 126 L 6-1
7 7 The Usual Q. T. Espinoza V Cassidy James 126 LA 15-1
8 8 Get Stormy Castellano J J Bush Thomas M 126 LA 20-1
9 9 Sidney's Candy Rosario J Sadler John W 123 LA 10-1
10 10 Goldikova (IRE) Peslier O Head Freddie 123 L 6-5
11 11 Proviso (GB) Smith M E Mott William I 123 LA 12-1

Everyone is calling this the cornation of Goldikova. She will be trying to become the first horse to win the Mile 3 times in a row. The French have had a good week so far with Americain (who used to be owned by Goldikova's owners) winning the Melbourne Cup. However, I think that she will be denied by a member of Team USA. That member will either be Proviso who with the exception 1 loss this year has been fantastic or Court Vision the Woodbine Mile winner. If Sidney's Candy hadn't be scratched from his prep I would be high on him, but something is fishy on that.

9th (5:20)
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1)1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dakota Phone Rosario J Hollendorfer Jerry 126 LA 30-1
2 2 Tizway Maragh R Bond Harold James 126 LA 6-1
3 3 Aikenite Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 123 LA 50-1
4 4 Mad Flatter Court J K Thornbury Jeffrey D 126 LA 12-1
5 5 Here Comes Ben Solis A Lopresti Charles 126 L 6-1
6 6 Gayego Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 126 LA 6-1
7 7 Thiskyhasnolimit Theriot H J II Asmussen Steven M 123 LA 10-1
8 8 Crown of Thorns Bejarano R Mandella Richard 126 L 4-1
9 9 Hurricane Ike Borel C H Sadler John W 123 LA 20-1
10 10 Morning Line Castellano J J Zito Nicholas P 123 LA 7-2
11 11 Mine That Bird Smith M E Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 20-1
12 12 Vineyard Haven Garcia Alan bin Suroor Saeed 126 L 10-1
13 13 Cool Coal Man Leparoux J R Zito Nicholas P 126 L 20-1

Crown of Thorns has been scratched due to injury

Why is Mine That Bird in this race? Really? He has not been the same horse since last year's Preakness. I'm going with Aikenite. Ignore his odds, he had to wait it out to see if he would even make the field. He has done okay this season though. Alot of these horses are seven furlong specialists, had it been at seven furlongs then I would go with Vineyard Haven and Here Comes Ben. However, I think that the extra furlong will help Aikenite.

10th (6:00)
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf (G1)1 1/2 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $3,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Champ Pegasus Rosario J Mandella Richard 126 L 10-1
2 2 Winchester Velasquez C Clement Christophe 126 Blk-On L 8-1
3 3 Telling Castellano J J Hobby Steve 126 LA 20-1
4 4 Debussy (IRE) Buick W Gosden John H M 126 L 10-1
5 5 Al Khali Leparoux J R Mott William I 126 LA 10-1
6 6 Workforce (GB) Moore R L Stoute Sir Michael 122 L 7-5
7 7 Behkabad (FR) Lemaire C P Rouget Jean-Claude 122 9-5
8 8 Dangerous Midge Dettori L Meehan Brian 126 Blk-On L 12-1

 I'm going with an American to upset the Euros who will/could be left. My pick is Winchester, why him? He has had a sensational year. He defeated his stablemate Gio Ponti and Paddy O' Prado who most thought would go in this race. Al Khali for second and Behkabad for third.

11th (6:45)
Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Quality Road Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 5-1
2 2 Paddy O'Prado Desormeaux K J Romans Dale 122 LA 15-1
3 3 Haynesfield Dominguez R A Asmussen Steven M 126 LA 12-1
4 4 First Dude Albarado R J Romans Dale 122 LA 15-1
5 5 Blame Gomez G K Stall Albert M Jr 126 LA 9-2
6 6 Fly Down Leparoux J R Zito Nicholas P 122 LA 15-1
7 7 Musket Man Maragh R Ryan Derek S 126 LA 20-1
8 8 Zenyatta Smith M E Shirreffs John 123 LA 8-5
9 9 Pleasant Prince Rosario J Ward Wesley A 122 L 30-1
10 10 Etched Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 126 LA 30-1
11 11 Espoir City (JPN) Sato T Adachi Akio 126 20-1
12 12 Lookin At Lucky Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 LA 6-1

So this is it! The biggest race of the year with Horse of the Year honors on the line. Here are the Pro's and Con's of each horse.

Quality Road
Pros: Coming off a win, Churchill tends to be more speed bias.
Cons: Gate problems, has not won at the distance, breaking from the rail is not ideal.

Paddy O' Prado
Pros: Has run well on this surface, has a win at the distance, coming off a second place finish.
Cons: Better on turf, really needs a sloppy surface to stay with high class dirt runners.

Haynesfield
Pros: Coming off a win, has a win at the distance, has defeated a horse in the race.
Cons: more of a Belmont lover then anything, probley better around 1 turn

First Dude
Pros: Is always there at the end
Cons: Hasn't won a race other then his maiden, has not run at this distance yet.

Blame
Pros: Has won on the surface, coming off a second place finish, has defeated a horse in this race.
Cons: Might be regressing at the wrong time, got caught on a speed bias track last time out, jockey was injured on Thursday but won a couple of races yesterday.

Fly Down
Pros: Always there at the end like First Dude, finished second at this distance by a nose two back, finished third last time out.
Cons: Has not won since February

Musket Man
Pros: Did well on this surface last year
Cons: Everything else. Plus I'm not a fan of his connections.

Zenyatta
Pros: Has a win at this distance, Defending Champ, coming off a win
Cons: has only had two starts over dirt, many people think that Blame is a better closer then she is, Classic winners going for back to back titles have not fared well.

Pleasant Prince
Pros: The only FL Derby runner to run well post KY Derby.
Cons: see Musket Man's cons, has not run at this distance yet.

Etched
Pros: Pedigree (sire is a sibling to a BC winner (Cash Run's brother Forestry is Etched's sire) dam is also BC winner (Unbridled Elaine) and his broodmare sire is a BC winner (Unbridled's Song)), trainer has won the Classic before, has the right running style for the Classic.
Cons: Has yet to face this caliber of horses, not run at this distance yet.

Espoir City
Pros: Won a prestigous race in his native Japan. His grandsire (Sunday Silence) is a BC Classic winner.
Cons: A bit of an unknown, JPN horses tend not to do well in the BC (Casino Drive two years ago, Red Desire last night).

Lookin at Lucky
Pros: Can overcome bad post postions, is coming off a win, the leading 3yo of the season.
Cons: He should be renamed Lookin at Unlucky (this is the third major race where he got stuck with a poor post), quite a bit younger then most of the horses here (he didn't turn 3 till after his Preakness win), can get into traffic trouble.

Prediction: Last year I chose Richard's Kid to upset Queen Z. Of course I was wrong about that. I like Zenyatta, but I don't love Zenyatta. For that reason I'm going to the horse whose stablemate was considered her rival. I think that Steve Asmussen defeats Zenyatta with Haynesfield. He will become the first NY Bred to ever win a BC race. Zenyatta for second and Blame for third.

Good luck to all and may all the horses come back safe and sound!

Breeders' Cup Friday Preview

It's that time! Time to preview today's BC races plus my picks.

5th (4:10)
Breeders' Cup Marathon (G3)1 3/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Atoned Albarado R J Howard Neil J 126 LA 20-1
2 2 Prince Will I Am Castellano J J Nihei Michelle 122 LA 4-1
3 3 Million Seller Rose J Motion H Graham 123 LA 50-1
4 4 Eldaafer Velazquez J R Alvarado Diane 126 LA 12-1
5 5 Romp (ARG) Garcia M Mulhall Kristin 126 LA 50-1
6 6 Gabriel's Hill Leparoux J R Benzel Seth 126 LA 20-1
7 7 Awesome Gem Flores D R Dollase Craig 126 LA 7-2
8 8 Giant Oak Gomez G K Block Chris M 126 LA 4-1
9 9 Bright Horizon (GB) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 L 10-1
10 10 Alcomo (BRZ) Bejarano R Caramori Eduardo 126 LA 6-1
11 11 Precision Break Spencer J P Cole Paul F 126 L 15-1
12 12 A. U. Miner Borel C H Hanna Clark 126 LA 9-2

Even though this is the lone male BC race on Friday, there is a filly in this race in Million Seller. However, I saw her get beat badly in the Del Cap this year. Bright Horizon has never run on dirt before, but the fact that he probley has gone longer is a good sign. Eldaafer is a distance specialist as is A.U. Miner. However, I'm going with Awesome Gem. This is a horse whose run in the Classic and Mile, and I finally think he gets into the winners circle in the BC in this race. Eldaafer for second and Bright Horizon for third.

6th (4:50)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2)1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dos Lunas Court J K Glenney John 122 Blk-On L 30-1
2 2 Tale Untold Moore R L Hannon Richard 122 L 15-1
3 3 Quiet Oasis (IRE) Dettori L Meehan Brian 122 L 8-1
4 4 Kathmanblu Leparoux J R McPeek Kenneth G 122 LA 10-1
5 5 Forest Legend Dominguez R A Oliver Victoria 122 LA 30-1
6 6 Arch Support Prado E S Contessa Gary C 122 L 20-1
7 7 Winter Memories Lezcano J Toner James J 122 LA 2-1
8 8 Wyomia Bejarano R Vella Daniel J 122 L 12-1
9 9 Fancy Point Desormeaux K J Phipps William 122 L 15-1
10 10 New Normal Castellano J J Frostad Mark 122 LA 10-1
11 11 More Than Real Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 10-1
12 12 Flood Plain (GB) Buick W Gosden John H M 122 20-1
13 13 Together (IRE) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 L 5-1
14 14 Allure d'Amour Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 15-1
15 AE Nina Fever Albarado R J Ward Wesley A 122 L 30-1

This race is a bit of an enigma without White Moonstone. With that being said, Winter Memories has been awesome. Since my dark horse Tapitsfly since won last year I'm also going to make another dark horse pick. This one is a bit of a longshot, but my dark horse for this year is Arch Support. She has only won once, but she is coming off a second to Winter Memories in the Miss Grillo as the longest shot on the board.

7th (5:30)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 My Jen Velazquez J R Kenneally Eddie 122 LA 15-1
2 2 Sara Louise Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 124 L 15-1
3 3 Secret Gypsy Albarado R J Werner Ronny 124 LA 12-1
4 4 Informed Decision Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 LA 7-2
5 5 Evening Jewel Espinoza V Cassidy James 122 LA 15-1
6 6 Moontune Missy Garcia Alan Harty Eoin 124 LA 30-1
7 7 Gabby's Golden Gal Garcia M Baffert Bob 124 LA 15-1
8 8 Sweet August Moon Smith M E Koriner Brian 124 LA 30-1
9 9 Switch Rosario J Sadler John W 122 LA 20-1
10 10 Rinterval (IRE) Bejarano R Reed Eric R 124 LA 20-1
11 11 Jessica Is Back Castellano J J Wolfson Martin D 124 L 12-1
12 12 Dubai Majesty Theriot H J II Calhoun W. B 124 LA 6-1
13 13 Rightly So Velasquez C Dutrow Anthony W 124 L 3-1
14 14 Champagne d'Oro Mena M Guillot Eric 122 L 6-1
15 AE Tidal Pool Smith M E Lukas D Wayne 122 LA 30-1
16 AE First Passage Gomez G K Wolfson Martin D 124 L 30-1

Rightly So has been scratched due to lameness Tidal Pool draws in

Keep an eye on this race. Outside of the Ladies Classic, this is the best race of the day. You have the defending champion in Informed Decision, G1 winners iin Gabby's Golden Gal, Rightly So, Champagne d' Oro, Evening Jewel and Jessica is Back. Then there is Rinterval and Switch both who almost handed Zenyatta her first race. Secret Gypsy who won the Endine at Delaware last time out so I hope she does well. However, I'm going with Sara Louise. Yes she's coming off a third in the Gallent Bloom, but she has good success at Churchill. She won the Pocahontas defeating Rachel Alexandra (and until this year was the last to do so), and finished second in the Golden Rod to Rachel the next time out.

8th (6:10)
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Indian Gracey Bejarano R Hollendorfer Jerry 122 LA 15-1 2 2 Theyskens' Theory Dettori L Meehan Brian 122 L 10-1
3 3 R Heat Lightning Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 4-1
4 4 Awesome Feather Sanchez J Gold Stanley I 122 L 6-1
5 5 Harlan's Ruby Leparoux J R McPeek Kenneth G 122 LA 15-1
6 6 Joyful Victory Dominguez R A Dutrow Anthony W 122 L 15-1
7 7 Izshelegal Smith M E Knight Terry 122 Blk-On L 30-1
8 8 A Z Warrior Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 LA 7-2
9 9 Delightful Mary Bridgmohan S X Casse Mark 122 LA 8-1
10 10 Believe in A. P. Gomez G K Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 L 15-1
11 11 Soundwave Albarado R J Werner Ronny 122 LA 20-1
12 12 Tell a Kelly Borel C H Sadler John W 122 LA 9-2
13 13 Jordy Y Rosario J Catalano Wayne M 122 LA 30-1

Indian Gracey has been scratched due to injury.

All eyes will be on the undefeated Awesome Feather who is taking a huge step up in class to take on the big girls. There are three horses to keep an eye on Joyful Victory, A Z Warrior and Theyskens' Theory. These three could be the superstars for next year. Especially Theyskens' Theory who is a half to Stevie Wonderboy. However I gotta go with my heart and go with A Z Warrior. She's a half to one of my favorite fillies J Z Warrior and her brother E Z Warrior was a pretty good horse himself. Theyskens' Theory for second and Joyful Victory for third.

9th (6:50)
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1)1 3/8 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Plumania (GB) Peslier O Fabre Andre 124 8-1
2 2 Eclair de Lune (GER) Alvarado J McAnally Ronald 124 L 15-1
3 3 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J Attfield Roger L 124 LA 8-1
4 4 Keertana Lezcano J Proctor Thomas F 124 LA 30-1
5 5 Shared Account Prado E S Motion H Graham 124 LA 30-1
6 6 Harmonious Rosario J Shirreffs John 121 LA 6-1
7 7 Midday (GB) Queally T P Cecil Henry 124 L 6-5
8 8 Hot Cha Cha Graham J Sims Phillip A 124 LA 30-1
9 9 Hibaayeb (GB) Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 121 LA 8-1
10 10 Red Desire (JPN) Desormeaux K J Matsunaga Mikio 124 LA 8-1
11 11 Forever Together Napravnik A R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 LA 10-1

The big question will be can anyone stop the Midday express. Harmonious and Eclair de Lune lead Team USA, and then there is Red Desire from the Far East. However, I really would not count out Forever Together. This might be the race she needs to her career on a high note,  Miss Keller for second and Midday for third.

10th (7:30)
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1)1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Life At Ten Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 124 LA 7-2
2 2 It's Tea Time Leparoux J R Arnold George R II 122 LA 15-1
3 3 Malibu Prayer Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 124 LA 8-1
4 4 Milwaukee Appeal Bejarano R Fairlie Scott H 124 LA 30-1
5 5 Acting Happy Lezcano J Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 Blk-On L 20-1
6 6 Persistently Garcia Alan McGaughey III C R 124 LA 12-1
7 7 Seeking the Title Borel C H Stewart Dallas 122 LA 30-1
8 8 Unrivaled Belle Desormeaux K J Mott William I 124 LA 8-1
9 9 Acoma Albarado R J Carroll David 124 LA 20-1
10 10 Blind Luck Rosario J Hollendorfer Jerry 122 LA 9-5
11 11 Havre de Grace Rose J Dutrow Anthony W 122 L 4-1

The nightcapper under the lights for Day 1. This is one of two races that I will be doing Pros and Cons with (the other is the Classic). So here we go!

Life at Ten
Pros: Has a win at the distance, has beaten several of these horses in this race, is coming off a win.
Cons: On the rail, might give her stablemate a run for her money too early. Probley better around one turn then two.

It's Tea Time
Pros: Has defeated older
Cons: Better on turf, lone main track win was on a sloppy race course, last time at Churchill dirt did poorly.

Malibu Prayer
Pros: Has a win at the distance and surface, has defeated another horse in this race, is coming off a second place finish.
Cons: Could be pressured too early by her stablemate, her jockey was involved in a spill yesterday but is okay.

Milwaukee Appeal
Pros: Has a win at this distance, is coming off a second place finish
Cons: Hasn't really shown the same form that she did last year, probley better on the synthetic.

Acting Happy
Pros: Has a win at this distance
Cons: Has not run since August

Persistently
Pros: Showed that Personal Ensign win was not a fluke by finishing third next time out.
Cons: Better closers in the race then her.

Seeking the Title
Pros: Well bred
Cons: Everything else

Unriveled Belle
Pros: Has a win over the track, coming off a second place finish
Cons: No wins at this distance, has yet to win since May, has lost to the Pletcher fillies on multiple occasions.

Acoma
Pros: Well bred, has a win over the surface sloppy and fast, has a win at the distance, coming off a win.
Cons: Better on turf.

Blind Luck
Pros: Has a win on this surface at this distance, coming off a second place finish, has won over both fast and sloppy tracks..
Cons: A slow pace could hurt her, traffic problems, and the fact if the Pletcher fillies get their way her arch rival Havre de Grace gets first run at them.

Havre de Grace
Pros: Coming off a win, finally turned the tables on her arch rival.
Cons: Was carrying 10 pounds less then Blind Luck, has lost to her twice, has yet to run at this distance, outside post.

When all is said and done, I think Grace will once again upset Blind Luck. Life at Ten for third just holding off Malibu Prayer.

I'll be back tomorrow with the Saturday preview.