Welcome to the Final Night of the Breeder's Cup Fields. Today I have four races and I'll preview each field. Instead of telling you how I'm going to play them (which I should note I'm actually this is all hypothetcial as I'm a horrible handicapper and bettor), I'm just going to tell you who want to win, who I think will win and the dark horse.
Filly & Mare Turf
1 Visit (GB), J. Velazquez, 10-1
2 Forever Together, J. Leparoux, 5/2
3 Rutherienne, Alan Garcia, 8-1
4 Magical Fantasy, Alex Solis, 3-1
5 Pure Clan, G. Gomez, 5-1
6 Midday (GB), T. Queally, 4-1
7 Dynaforce, K. Desormeaux, 8-1
8 Maram, J. Lezcano, 15-1
The winner of this race could be F/M Eclipse Champion unless Diamondrella, Goldikova or Dar Re Mi win their respective races. While Forever Together is the defending champ, I really don't like her chances here. She's really not been the same horse, and should have beaten Diamondrella both times they met. Rutherienne is coming in somewhat under the radar, she won her prep and has been a bit underated in her career. Beware of Magical Fantasy as well, she's the local in the race, Midday and Visit could be factors as well. I'm tossing Dynaforce, and Pure Clan as they may need softer courses to win. Maram could suprise everyone like she did last year in the Juvy Fillies Turf.
Who I want to win: Rutherianne, Visit, Midday
Who I think will win: Magical Fantasy, Forever Together, Midday
Dark Horse: Maram
BC Turf
1 Telling, J. Castellano, 20-1
2 Conduit (IRE), Ryan Moore, 7/5
3 Red Rocks (IRE), J. Leparoux, 20-1
4 Allegre, J. Velazquez, 50-1 scratched due to injury5 Dar Re Mi (GB), L. Dettori, 3-1
6 Presious Passion, Elvis Trujillo, 4-1
7 Spanish Moon, K. Fallon, 5/2
8 Monzante, R. Bejarano, 30-1
No Sea the Stars, no Youmzin, not really interested in watching this year. Outside of Conduit, Dar Re Mi and Pressious Passion, this is a really sucky field dispite having Red Rocks, Telling and Spanish Moon. And those three are either Grade or Group 1 winners. However the three I mentioned first are the ones to beat. Conduit is the defending champ and is coming off a 3rd place finish in the Arc, Dar Re Mi gets a jockey change after she finished 5th in the Arc. Red Rocks is just not the same at age 6 that he was at age 3, 4, and 5. This is going to be his final race before being sold at Keenland, Spanish Moon hopefully won't have gate problems. However, they are all going to have to chase my pick Presious Passion around the track. The firm surface will keep him happy and give him his third G1 of the year, it won't be enough to steal Eclipse Turf Male away from Gio Ponti, but it will set him up for next year.
Who I want to win: Presious Passion, Telling, Dar Re Mi
Who I think will win: Dar Re Mi, Presious Passion, Conduit
Dark Horse:Telling
Ladies' Classic
1 Careless Jewel, Robert Landry, 2-1
2 Life Is Sweet, Garret Gomez, 8-1
3 Mushka, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
4 Lethal Heat, Alex Solis, 20-1
5 Proviso (GB), J. Velazquez, 8-1
6 Cocoa Beach (CHI), R. Migliore, 8-1
7 Music Note, R. Maragh, 9/5
8 Rainbow View, J. Leparoux, 6-1
9 times out of 10 the possible 3yo Champion Filly and the possible Older Champion Filly/Mare would meet here for the first time ever. However the possible Older Champion Mare taking on the boys and the slam dunk 3yo Champion Filly taking a rest, it's still a nice race. Any other year Careless Jewel would have been that slam dunk 3yo Champion Filly with her wins in the Delaware Oaks, Alabama and Collition. She's a pacesetter, although she can also sit off the pace. Any other year Music Note would be the possible Older Champion Filly/Mare, and is coming off two very impressive wins in the Ballerina and Beldame, she'll come from mid-pack, back of the pack. Instead the second fiddles to Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will go for bragging rights here. I personally perfer Music Note over Careless Jewel, if Proviso can stay stright she has a chance as well, however if there is an upset of either Music Note or Careless Jewel, I think it will be from Lethal Heat. She almost was cross entered in this race and the Turf Sprint, but due to an over subscription of the latter, her connections had to choose a race. My only concern is that she has raced quite a bit in the past two months, however her last race was the Lady's Secret where finished second behind Zenyatta. Rainbow View could suprise people as well.
Who I want to win: Music Note, Careless Jewel, Lethal Heat
Who I think will win: Music Note, Life is Sweet, Proviso
Dark Horse: Lethal Heat, Proviso, Rainbow View
Last, but not least!
BC Classic
1 Mine That Bird, Calvin Borel, 12-1
2 Colonel John, G. Gomez, 12-1
3 Summer Bird, K. Desormeaux, 9/2
4 Zenyatta, Mike Smith, 5/2
5 Twice Over (GB), T. Queally, 20-1
6 Richard's Kid, Alex Solis, 12-1
7 Gio Ponti, R. Dominguez, 12-1
8 Einstein (BRZ), J. Leparoux, 12-1
9 Girolamo, Alan Garcia, 20-1
10 Rip Van Winkle (IRE), J. Murtagh, 7/2
11 Regal Ransom, R. Migliore, 20-1
12 Quality Road, J. Velazquez, 12-1
13 Awesome Gem, David Flores, 30-1
The big race of the day. Many people think a win by Zenyatta or Summer Bird could give them a chance at Horse of the Year, however don't count out Einstein or Richard's Kid. These where 2-1 in the Pacific Classic in August (Einstein was second, Richard's Kid won in a shocker), plus Einstein won the Santa Anita Handicap in March. Rip Van Winkle is a deserving second choice, however he has feet issues which is why I wouldn't use him, Regal Ransom could be the pace setter along with Quality Road, but don't expect either of them near the end (although QR has a very grassy female side and has the defending sire of this race as his sire). A win by either Einstein or Gio Ponti will give them Older Male, but don't forget the forgotten Bird. Although this is not his favorite surface, once again Mine That Bird is coming into a big race under radar. And with him and Borel on the rail, if he gets the trip that he got in the Derby he could steal this race and help "Borail's" BFF ice HOY (aka Rachel). Now go watch either Twice Over (who of the two Euros I perfer) or Awesome Gem win the race.
Who I want to win: Zenyatta, Einstein, Richard's Kid
Who I think will win: Sadly I think Zenyatta gets her first loss her, but only by a 1/2 length to Richard's Kid, Einstein in third. It would be the first Classic win for his trainer Bob Baffert and he would be the 2nd Maryland bred to win the race (the first being the one and only Cigar). Mine That Bird beats his "brother" Summer Bird for the 4th postion.
Dark Horse: Twice Over, Mine That Bird, Girolamo
Well that's it for the BC Fields, unfortanlly I have to work tomorrow and Saturday however I should be able to see some of the BC Saturday and one or two races tomorrow. I'll have a full recap on Monday, and then I'll announce what the plan for the blog is for the rest of the year. Anyway everyone good luck with your bets and hope everyone has a fablous Breeder's Cup weekend
Showing posts with label Oak Tree. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oak Tree. Show all posts
November 5, 2009
November 4, 2009
Breeder's Cup Fields (Part 2)
Welcome to Part 2 of a three part field coverage for the 2009 Breeder's Cup. This year there are 14 races over two days at Oak Tree at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. Here are the next five fields that I will be talking about over the course of three days. Also I will give how I would play each race betting wise. I may or may not play them though.
Juvenile Turf
1 Zip Quik, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Viscount Nelson, John Murtagh, 6-1
3 Codoy, G. Gomez, 15-1
4 Pounced, L. Dettori, 9/2
5 Gallant Gent, J. Rosario, 30-1
6 Awesome Act, Ryan Moore, 20-1
7 Bridgetown, R. Landry, 8-1
8 King Ledley, R. Bejarano, 20-1
9 Kera's Kitten, R. Maragh, 12-1
10 Becky's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
11 Interactif, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
12 Buzzword (GB), Ahmed Ajtebi, 6-1
All eyes are on Pounced and Interactif, however bewhere of the two Kittens: Kera's Kitten and Becky's Kitten. The two sons of Kitten's Joy could suprise here.
Who I want to win: Interactif, Becky's Kitten
Who I think will win: Pounced
How I'll play the race: $2 across the board Interactif
Dark Horse: Kera's Kitten
Turf Sprint
1 Noble Court, J. Rosario, 8-1
2 Silver Timber, J. Leparoux, 8-1
3 California Flag, J. Talamo, 7/2
4 Lord Shanakill, Jim Crowley, 8-1
5 Get Funky, R. Bejarano, 20-1
6 Cannonball, R. Dominguez, 8-1
7 Gotta Have Her, T. Baze, 15-1
8 Square Eddie, L. Dettori, 20-1
9 Diamondrella (GB), R. Maragh, 4-1
10 Canadian Ballet, A. Garcia, 20-1
11 El Gato Malo, David Flores, 30-1
12 Strike the Deal, Kieren Fallon, 15-1
13 Desert Code, R. Migliore, 20-1
14 Delta Storm, G. Gomez, 10-1
This is one of my favorite races of the day as there are several horses that I like in the race. Cannonball almost won at Royal Ascot earlier this year, Diamondrella has beaten Forever Together twice this year, the defending champ Desert Code is coming underneath the radar and Gotta Have Her has a chance. With that being said, betting wise I'm throwing them all out and going with two underachivers to possibly shock everyone. They are 08 Lone Star Derby winner El Gato Malo and 08 Breeder's Futurity winner Square Eddie. A win by both would make me very happy. With that being said this is really Cannonball's race to lose and I wouldn't be upset if he wins either.
Who I want to win: El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball
Who I think will win: Cannonball, Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her
How I'm playing: El Gato Malo/Square Eddie/Cannonball trifecta, $2 across the board El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball, Diamondrella
Dark Horse: Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her, Canadian Ballet
Juvenile
1 Alfred Nobel (IRE), J. Murtagh, 20-1
2 Piscitelli, K. Desormeaux, 50-1
3 Beethoven (IRE), R. Moore, 20-1
4 Noble's Promise, Willie Martinez, 8-1
5 D'Funnybone, E. Prado, 5/2
6 Pulsion, Mike Smith, 20-1
7 Vale of York (IRE), A. Ajtebi, 20-1
8 Eskendereya, J. Castellano, 10-1
9 Aikenite, Alan Garcia, 8-1
10 Aspire, J. Leparoux, 30-1
11 Radiohead (GB), Martin Dwyer, 15-1
12 William's Kitten, R. Dominguez, 30-1
13 Lookin At Lucky, G. Gomez, 8/5
Believe it or not, but this race will be run with 6 months to go until the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the race will have more then enough graded stakes earnings to get into the field, and I think that winner will be Aikenite. The 13 post really hurts Lookin at Lucky's chances IMO, I do think his class will get him in the top three though. However, for personal reasons I would love to see Aikenite win this race, and he has experience on synth and dirt. Eskendereya could get in there as well. My dark horse is William's Kitten whose sire I mentioned before.
Who I want to win: Aikenite
Who I think will win: Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite, Eskendereya
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: William's Kitten
BC Mile
1 Court Vision, R. Albarado, 12-1
2 Whatsthescript (IRE), K. Desormeaux, 15-1
3 Cowboy Cal, J. Velazquez, 6-1
4 Delegator (GB), L. Dettori, 3-1
5 Karelian, R. Maragh, 20-1
6 Courageous Cat, G. Gomez, 20-1
7 Ferneley (IRE), R. Bejarano, 20-1
8 Zacinto (GB), Ryan Moore, 8-1
9 Gladiatorus, Ahmed Ajtebi, 20-1
10 Justenuffhumor, A. Garcia, 10-1
11 Goldikova (IRE), O. Peslier, 8/5
All eyes will be on Goldikova as she tries to defend her Mile title. It would be the 4th title for her trainer Freddie Head, who won twice as a jockey on Miesque, the filly that Goldikova is often compared to. However, I see a bit of revenge taken this year by IEAH with Court Vision who ironicly is a full brother to Kipling the sire of 07 Mile and last year's runner up Kip Deville who is owned by IEAH. This would also flatter Gio Ponti (who I'll talk about tomorrow), as Court and him battled last year after the former switched to turf after the Derby. Karelian almost stole the Shadwell Mile won by Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal has a big chance as well. Keep an eye on Gladiatorus, he won in Dubai earlier this year and the other two prongs from Godolphin, Delagator and Justenuffhumor who could be Team USA's best chance in the race even with Court, Cal and Karelian.
Who I want to win: Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justenuffhumor
Who I think will win: Court Vision, Goldikova, Karelian
How I'm playing it: Court Vision/Goldikova exacta, Karlian/Cowboy Cal exacta
Dark Horse: Karelian, Gladitourus
Dirt Mile
1 Mastercraftsman (IRE), John Murtagh, 6/5
2 Furthest Land, J. Leparoux, 20-1
3 Midshipman, G. Gomez, 6-1
4 Bullsbay, J. Rose, 3-1
5 Neko Bay, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Mambo Meister, M. Cruz, 30-1
7 Pyro, J. Velazquez, 10-1
8 Mr. Sidney, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
9 Chocolate Candy, J. Rosario, 15-1
10 Ready's Echo, Calvin Borel, 20-1
This is a race where with the expection of Neko Bay, Mambo Meister, and Furthest Land the rest of the horses could be in the Classic. However, the "Dirt" Mile is where they landed. The three I just mentioned I'm throwing out this is not a race where longshots won't have a chance this year (My opinon). Midshipman has raced once this year for Goldolphin, but won the Juvy last year in his first and only race for Darley (he was a Stonerside horse before). Pyro finally got his G1 win in the Forego, and this is probley the better race for him. However, he is not a huge synth fan, so it will be interesting how he does in his final race before stud. It's also the final race for Mr. Sidney who has been running on the turf all season, the same can not be said about Mastercraftsman who prepped on the synth in England last time out. Many people, are a bit disapointed that he's not in the Classic, however not all synths are alike. Beware of Chocolate Candy, and Ready's Echo as they can possibly steal the race. Bullsbay upset Commentator in the Whitney and ran third in the Woodward, but he missed some of training time leading up to this race.
Who I want to win: Chocolate Candy, Pyro, Mastercraftsman
Who I think will win: Mastercraftsman, Pyro
Not playing this race (I like too many horses that I would have to hit the ALL button!)
Dark Horse: Ready's Echo
Well I hope you enjoyed today's races, tomorrow the final 4, F/M Turf, Turf, Ladies Classic and Classic. Hope to see you then!
Juvenile Turf
1 Zip Quik, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Viscount Nelson, John Murtagh, 6-1
3 Codoy, G. Gomez, 15-1
4 Pounced, L. Dettori, 9/2
5 Gallant Gent, J. Rosario, 30-1
6 Awesome Act, Ryan Moore, 20-1
7 Bridgetown, R. Landry, 8-1
8 King Ledley, R. Bejarano, 20-1
9 Kera's Kitten, R. Maragh, 12-1
10 Becky's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
11 Interactif, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
12 Buzzword (GB), Ahmed Ajtebi, 6-1
All eyes are on Pounced and Interactif, however bewhere of the two Kittens: Kera's Kitten and Becky's Kitten. The two sons of Kitten's Joy could suprise here.
Who I want to win: Interactif, Becky's Kitten
Who I think will win: Pounced
How I'll play the race: $2 across the board Interactif
Dark Horse: Kera's Kitten
Turf Sprint
1 Noble Court, J. Rosario, 8-1
2 Silver Timber, J. Leparoux, 8-1
3 California Flag, J. Talamo, 7/2
4 Lord Shanakill, Jim Crowley, 8-1
5 Get Funky, R. Bejarano, 20-1
6 Cannonball, R. Dominguez, 8-1
7 Gotta Have Her, T. Baze, 15-1
8 Square Eddie, L. Dettori, 20-1
9 Diamondrella (GB), R. Maragh, 4-1
10 Canadian Ballet, A. Garcia, 20-1
11 El Gato Malo, David Flores, 30-1
12 Strike the Deal, Kieren Fallon, 15-1
13 Desert Code, R. Migliore, 20-1
14 Delta Storm, G. Gomez, 10-1
This is one of my favorite races of the day as there are several horses that I like in the race. Cannonball almost won at Royal Ascot earlier this year, Diamondrella has beaten Forever Together twice this year, the defending champ Desert Code is coming underneath the radar and Gotta Have Her has a chance. With that being said, betting wise I'm throwing them all out and going with two underachivers to possibly shock everyone. They are 08 Lone Star Derby winner El Gato Malo and 08 Breeder's Futurity winner Square Eddie. A win by both would make me very happy. With that being said this is really Cannonball's race to lose and I wouldn't be upset if he wins either.
Who I want to win: El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball
Who I think will win: Cannonball, Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her
How I'm playing: El Gato Malo/Square Eddie/Cannonball trifecta, $2 across the board El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball, Diamondrella
Dark Horse: Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her, Canadian Ballet
Juvenile
1 Alfred Nobel (IRE), J. Murtagh, 20-1
2 Piscitelli, K. Desormeaux, 50-1
3 Beethoven (IRE), R. Moore, 20-1
4 Noble's Promise, Willie Martinez, 8-1
5 D'Funnybone, E. Prado, 5/2
6 Pulsion, Mike Smith, 20-1
7 Vale of York (IRE), A. Ajtebi, 20-1
8 Eskendereya, J. Castellano, 10-1
9 Aikenite, Alan Garcia, 8-1
10 Aspire, J. Leparoux, 30-1
11 Radiohead (GB), Martin Dwyer, 15-1
12 William's Kitten, R. Dominguez, 30-1
13 Lookin At Lucky, G. Gomez, 8/5
Believe it or not, but this race will be run with 6 months to go until the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the race will have more then enough graded stakes earnings to get into the field, and I think that winner will be Aikenite. The 13 post really hurts Lookin at Lucky's chances IMO, I do think his class will get him in the top three though. However, for personal reasons I would love to see Aikenite win this race, and he has experience on synth and dirt. Eskendereya could get in there as well. My dark horse is William's Kitten whose sire I mentioned before.
Who I want to win: Aikenite
Who I think will win: Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite, Eskendereya
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: William's Kitten
BC Mile
1 Court Vision, R. Albarado, 12-1
2 Whatsthescript (IRE), K. Desormeaux, 15-1
3 Cowboy Cal, J. Velazquez, 6-1
4 Delegator (GB), L. Dettori, 3-1
5 Karelian, R. Maragh, 20-1
6 Courageous Cat, G. Gomez, 20-1
7 Ferneley (IRE), R. Bejarano, 20-1
8 Zacinto (GB), Ryan Moore, 8-1
9 Gladiatorus, Ahmed Ajtebi, 20-1
10 Justenuffhumor, A. Garcia, 10-1
11 Goldikova (IRE), O. Peslier, 8/5
All eyes will be on Goldikova as she tries to defend her Mile title. It would be the 4th title for her trainer Freddie Head, who won twice as a jockey on Miesque, the filly that Goldikova is often compared to. However, I see a bit of revenge taken this year by IEAH with Court Vision who ironicly is a full brother to Kipling the sire of 07 Mile and last year's runner up Kip Deville who is owned by IEAH. This would also flatter Gio Ponti (who I'll talk about tomorrow), as Court and him battled last year after the former switched to turf after the Derby. Karelian almost stole the Shadwell Mile won by Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal has a big chance as well. Keep an eye on Gladiatorus, he won in Dubai earlier this year and the other two prongs from Godolphin, Delagator and Justenuffhumor who could be Team USA's best chance in the race even with Court, Cal and Karelian.
Who I want to win: Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justenuffhumor
Who I think will win: Court Vision, Goldikova, Karelian
How I'm playing it: Court Vision/Goldikova exacta, Karlian/Cowboy Cal exacta
Dark Horse: Karelian, Gladitourus
Dirt Mile
1 Mastercraftsman (IRE), John Murtagh, 6/5
2 Furthest Land, J. Leparoux, 20-1
3 Midshipman, G. Gomez, 6-1
4 Bullsbay, J. Rose, 3-1
5 Neko Bay, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Mambo Meister, M. Cruz, 30-1
7 Pyro, J. Velazquez, 10-1
8 Mr. Sidney, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
9 Chocolate Candy, J. Rosario, 15-1
10 Ready's Echo, Calvin Borel, 20-1
This is a race where with the expection of Neko Bay, Mambo Meister, and Furthest Land the rest of the horses could be in the Classic. However, the "Dirt" Mile is where they landed. The three I just mentioned I'm throwing out this is not a race where longshots won't have a chance this year (My opinon). Midshipman has raced once this year for Goldolphin, but won the Juvy last year in his first and only race for Darley (he was a Stonerside horse before). Pyro finally got his G1 win in the Forego, and this is probley the better race for him. However, he is not a huge synth fan, so it will be interesting how he does in his final race before stud. It's also the final race for Mr. Sidney who has been running on the turf all season, the same can not be said about Mastercraftsman who prepped on the synth in England last time out. Many people, are a bit disapointed that he's not in the Classic, however not all synths are alike. Beware of Chocolate Candy, and Ready's Echo as they can possibly steal the race. Bullsbay upset Commentator in the Whitney and ran third in the Woodward, but he missed some of training time leading up to this race.
Who I want to win: Chocolate Candy, Pyro, Mastercraftsman
Who I think will win: Mastercraftsman, Pyro
Not playing this race (I like too many horses that I would have to hit the ALL button!)
Dark Horse: Ready's Echo
Well I hope you enjoyed today's races, tomorrow the final 4, F/M Turf, Turf, Ladies Classic and Classic. Hope to see you then!
November 3, 2009
Breeder's Cup Fields (Part 1)
Welcome to Part 1 of a three part field coverage for the 2009 Breeder's Cup. This year there are 14 races over two days at Oak Tree at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. Here are the first five fields that I will be talking about over the course of three days. Also I will give how I would play each race betting wise. I may or may not play them though.
Marathon
1 Black Astor, Alex Solis, 12-1
2 Muhannak (IRE), Ryan Moore, 12-1
3 Nite Light, John Velazquez, 4-1
4 Cloudy's Knight, R. Homeister, 8-1
5 Father Time (GB), Eddie Ahern, 3-1
6 Mastery (GB), L. Dettori, 9/5
7 Sir Dave, Joel Rosario, 20-1
8 Eldaafer, R. Bejarano, 30-1
9 Man of Iron, John Murtagh, 8-1
10 Gangbuster, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1
While Mastery more then likely will off as the post time favorite, I'm going against him in this race. There are two horses in the race, I'm picking for their pedigrees. The first is Nite Light, a son of Thunder Gulch the 1995 KY Derby and Belmont Stakes winner out of 1991 KY Oaks winner Lite Light who in turn spoiled Meadow Star's chance at the Triple Tiara in the CCA Oaks when that race was a mile and a half. The second is a Euro named Man of Iron, who is by 2000 BC Classic runner up Giant's Causeway out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour. This makes Man of Iron a half brother to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, 2008 Peter Pan winner Casino Drive and 2007 KY Oaks and Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Keep an eye on Cloudy's Knight to possibly be there in the end. I'm throwing out Muhannak who has done nothing since he won the Marathon last year, and my dark horse is Father Time as I think Nite Light may take more money then he will.
Who I want to win: Nite Light, Man of Iron, Cloudy's Knight
Who I think will win: Father Time, Mastery, Man of Iron
How I'll play it: Nite Light/Man of Iron exacta, Father Time $2 across the board
Dark Horse: Father Time
Filly & Mare Sprint
1 Free Flying Soul, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Sara Louise, L. Dettori, 9/2
3 Game Face, E. Prado, 10-1
4 Only Green (IRE), O. Peslier, 20-1
5 Silver Swallow, Alex Solis, 30-1
6 Evita Argentina, J. Rosario, 20-1
7 Informed Decision, J. Leparous, 5/2
8 Seventh Street, Rajiv Maragh, 4-1
9 Ventura, Garret Gomez, 8/5
This race betting wise is wide open, as anybody can win this. However, I see only four horses winning. I personally would love to see Ventura win this race, however I'm going to bet against her this race. I'm going to bet Sara Louise, Game Face, and Evita Argentina, all three horses are coming a bit under the radar for a few reasons. Sara Louise, the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra was second last time out against Indian Blessing. Game Face is coming off a bit of a layoff, but did win the Princess Rooney this year at Calder, Evita Argentina beat the boys in a stakes race over the course earlier this year. My dark horse in this race is Seventh Street, she won the Apple Blossom and Go For Wand. She maybe better at least a mile, but she could suprise people here.
Who I want to win: Ventura, Sara Louise, Evita Argentina
Who I think will win: Ventura, Informed Decision
How I'll play it: Sara Louise/Game Face/Evita Argentina trifecta, Sara Louise $4 win, place, Seventh Street $2 win
Dark Horse: Seventh Street
Juvenile Fillies
1 Zilva, Jeremy Rose, 30-1
2 Ms Vanenzza, Joseph Rocco Jr., 30-1
3 Blind Luck, T. Baze, 3-1
4 Beautician, R. Albarado, 6-1
5 Bickersons, Joel Rosario, 20-1
6 Connie and Michael, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
7 Devil May Care, J. Velazquez, 8-1
8 She Be Wild, J. Leparoux, 8-1
9 Champagne d'Oro, Martin Garcia, 50-1
10 Negligee, Rajiv Maragh, 6-1
11 Always a Princess, G. Gomez, 6-1
12 Biofuel, E. Da Silva, 15-1
My heart says that Ms Vanenzza as she won her prep the Blue Hen Stakes at Delaware Park, but I'm going with She Be Wild. She was second in the Alcibides last time out, but before that she won Arlington's Lassie Stakes at 8-1 she could be a steal. Negligee is a horse, I'm tossing but I wouldn't be suprised if she turns out to be a great 3yo. Blind Luck inherated top billing after the retirement of Mi Sueno and the no show Hot Dixie Chick. Champagne d'Oro faced the boys, but did not do well at all. Hopefully she improves in this race, but I don't think she'll win. The buzz horse is Connie and Michael, who I may go against and instead go with Devil May Care. Unfortanlly this race is lacking an Awesome Maria, Hot Dixie Chick and Dattt Echo, okay so the latter is just a maiden winner, but I think she may have done well in this race.
Who I want to win: She Be Wild, Ms Vanenzza
Who I think will win: Negligee, Blind Luck, She Be Wild
How I'm playing it: $2 across the board She Be Wild
Dark Horse: Ms Vanenzza
Sprint
1 Zensational, V. Espinoza, 7/5
2 Cost of Freedom, T. Baze, 20-1
3 Fatal Bullet, E. Da Silva, 9/2
4 Crown of Thorns, R. Bejarano, 12-1
5 Gayego, G. Gomez, 5/2
6 Dancing in Silks, J. Rosario, 12-1
7 Join in the Dance, J. Velazquez, 30-1
8 Capt. Candyman Can, J. Castellano, 15-1
9 Fleeting Spirit (IRE), L. Dettori, 8-1
This is a battle of Egypt vs UAE, Zensational who is owned by a Egyptian national vs Gayego, owned by the Ruler of Dubai. However, I'm not choosing either of them. Instead I'm going with Capt. Candyman Can, who won the King's Bishop via DQ and Join in the Dance who was second in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Musket Man earlier this year. Fleeting Spirit while used to facing the boys, however she is running on a non turf surface for the first time. With that being said, she does have one of the best jockeys in the World on her. Hopefully she and Frankie can get a clear shot and suprise people, especially since girls do pretty well in the Sprint.
Who I want to win: Capt. Candyman Can, Fleeting Spirit, Join in the Dance
Who I think will win: Zenzastional, Capt. Candyman Can, Gayego
How I'm playing it: Capt. Candyman Can/Fleeting Spirit/Join in the Dance trifecta, Fleeting Spirit/Zenzastional exacta
Dark Horse: Fatal Bullet
Juvenile Fillies Turf
1 Potosina, J. Velazquez, 20-1
2 Elusive Galaxy (IRE), R. Bejarano, 12-1
3 Smart Seattle, 8-1
4 Rose Catherine, J. Castellano, 8-1
5 La Nez, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Jungle Tale, S. Bridgmohan, 15-1
7 House of Grace, Michael Luzzi, 4-1
8 Lillie Langtry, J. Murtagh, 3-1
9 Hatheer, Alan Garcia, 10-1
10 Tapitsfly, Robby Albarado, 8-1
11 Junia Tepzia (IRE), K. Fallon, 8-1
12 Lisa's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
Unfortnally I don't know alot about the horses, however I'm going with Lillie Langtry who looks like she could be something special next year for the Euros. Lisa's Kitten won last time out in Texas, and House of Grace looks like she could be some value. Unfortnally the horse I really wanted to see in the race, Dad's Crazy is an AE and unlikley to make the field.
Who I want to win: Lillie Langtry
Who I think will win: Lillie Langtry
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: Tapitsfly
I hope you enjoyed Part 1, tomorrow Part 2 with five more races, and then on Thurs the final four races.
Marathon
1 Black Astor, Alex Solis, 12-1
2 Muhannak (IRE), Ryan Moore, 12-1
3 Nite Light, John Velazquez, 4-1
4 Cloudy's Knight, R. Homeister, 8-1
5 Father Time (GB), Eddie Ahern, 3-1
6 Mastery (GB), L. Dettori, 9/5
7 Sir Dave, Joel Rosario, 20-1
8 Eldaafer, R. Bejarano, 30-1
9 Man of Iron, John Murtagh, 8-1
10 Gangbuster, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1
While Mastery more then likely will off as the post time favorite, I'm going against him in this race. There are two horses in the race, I'm picking for their pedigrees. The first is Nite Light, a son of Thunder Gulch the 1995 KY Derby and Belmont Stakes winner out of 1991 KY Oaks winner Lite Light who in turn spoiled Meadow Star's chance at the Triple Tiara in the CCA Oaks when that race was a mile and a half. The second is a Euro named Man of Iron, who is by 2000 BC Classic runner up Giant's Causeway out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour. This makes Man of Iron a half brother to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, 2008 Peter Pan winner Casino Drive and 2007 KY Oaks and Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Keep an eye on Cloudy's Knight to possibly be there in the end. I'm throwing out Muhannak who has done nothing since he won the Marathon last year, and my dark horse is Father Time as I think Nite Light may take more money then he will.
Who I want to win: Nite Light, Man of Iron, Cloudy's Knight
Who I think will win: Father Time, Mastery, Man of Iron
How I'll play it: Nite Light/Man of Iron exacta, Father Time $2 across the board
Dark Horse: Father Time
Filly & Mare Sprint
1 Free Flying Soul, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Sara Louise, L. Dettori, 9/2
3 Game Face, E. Prado, 10-1
4 Only Green (IRE), O. Peslier, 20-1
5 Silver Swallow, Alex Solis, 30-1
6 Evita Argentina, J. Rosario, 20-1
7 Informed Decision, J. Leparous, 5/2
8 Seventh Street, Rajiv Maragh, 4-1
9 Ventura, Garret Gomez, 8/5
This race betting wise is wide open, as anybody can win this. However, I see only four horses winning. I personally would love to see Ventura win this race, however I'm going to bet against her this race. I'm going to bet Sara Louise, Game Face, and Evita Argentina, all three horses are coming a bit under the radar for a few reasons. Sara Louise, the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra was second last time out against Indian Blessing. Game Face is coming off a bit of a layoff, but did win the Princess Rooney this year at Calder, Evita Argentina beat the boys in a stakes race over the course earlier this year. My dark horse in this race is Seventh Street, she won the Apple Blossom and Go For Wand. She maybe better at least a mile, but she could suprise people here.
Who I want to win: Ventura, Sara Louise, Evita Argentina
Who I think will win: Ventura, Informed Decision
How I'll play it: Sara Louise/Game Face/Evita Argentina trifecta, Sara Louise $4 win, place, Seventh Street $2 win
Dark Horse: Seventh Street
Juvenile Fillies
1 Zilva, Jeremy Rose, 30-1
2 Ms Vanenzza, Joseph Rocco Jr., 30-1
3 Blind Luck, T. Baze, 3-1
4 Beautician, R. Albarado, 6-1
5 Bickersons, Joel Rosario, 20-1
6 Connie and Michael, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
7 Devil May Care, J. Velazquez, 8-1
8 She Be Wild, J. Leparoux, 8-1
9 Champagne d'Oro, Martin Garcia, 50-1
10 Negligee, Rajiv Maragh, 6-1
11 Always a Princess, G. Gomez, 6-1
12 Biofuel, E. Da Silva, 15-1
My heart says that Ms Vanenzza as she won her prep the Blue Hen Stakes at Delaware Park, but I'm going with She Be Wild. She was second in the Alcibides last time out, but before that she won Arlington's Lassie Stakes at 8-1 she could be a steal. Negligee is a horse, I'm tossing but I wouldn't be suprised if she turns out to be a great 3yo. Blind Luck inherated top billing after the retirement of Mi Sueno and the no show Hot Dixie Chick. Champagne d'Oro faced the boys, but did not do well at all. Hopefully she improves in this race, but I don't think she'll win. The buzz horse is Connie and Michael, who I may go against and instead go with Devil May Care. Unfortanlly this race is lacking an Awesome Maria, Hot Dixie Chick and Dattt Echo, okay so the latter is just a maiden winner, but I think she may have done well in this race.
Who I want to win: She Be Wild, Ms Vanenzza
Who I think will win: Negligee, Blind Luck, She Be Wild
How I'm playing it: $2 across the board She Be Wild
Dark Horse: Ms Vanenzza
Sprint
1 Zensational, V. Espinoza, 7/5
2 Cost of Freedom, T. Baze, 20-1
3 Fatal Bullet, E. Da Silva, 9/2
4 Crown of Thorns, R. Bejarano, 12-1
5 Gayego, G. Gomez, 5/2
6 Dancing in Silks, J. Rosario, 12-1
7 Join in the Dance, J. Velazquez, 30-1
8 Capt. Candyman Can, J. Castellano, 15-1
9 Fleeting Spirit (IRE), L. Dettori, 8-1
This is a battle of Egypt vs UAE, Zensational who is owned by a Egyptian national vs Gayego, owned by the Ruler of Dubai. However, I'm not choosing either of them. Instead I'm going with Capt. Candyman Can, who won the King's Bishop via DQ and Join in the Dance who was second in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Musket Man earlier this year. Fleeting Spirit while used to facing the boys, however she is running on a non turf surface for the first time. With that being said, she does have one of the best jockeys in the World on her. Hopefully she and Frankie can get a clear shot and suprise people, especially since girls do pretty well in the Sprint.
Who I want to win: Capt. Candyman Can, Fleeting Spirit, Join in the Dance
Who I think will win: Zenzastional, Capt. Candyman Can, Gayego
How I'm playing it: Capt. Candyman Can/Fleeting Spirit/Join in the Dance trifecta, Fleeting Spirit/Zenzastional exacta
Dark Horse: Fatal Bullet
Juvenile Fillies Turf
1 Potosina, J. Velazquez, 20-1
2 Elusive Galaxy (IRE), R. Bejarano, 12-1
3 Smart Seattle, 8-1
4 Rose Catherine, J. Castellano, 8-1
5 La Nez, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Jungle Tale, S. Bridgmohan, 15-1
7 House of Grace, Michael Luzzi, 4-1
8 Lillie Langtry, J. Murtagh, 3-1
9 Hatheer, Alan Garcia, 10-1
10 Tapitsfly, Robby Albarado, 8-1
11 Junia Tepzia (IRE), K. Fallon, 8-1
12 Lisa's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
Unfortnally I don't know alot about the horses, however I'm going with Lillie Langtry who looks like she could be something special next year for the Euros. Lisa's Kitten won last time out in Texas, and House of Grace looks like she could be some value. Unfortnally the horse I really wanted to see in the race, Dad's Crazy is an AE and unlikley to make the field.
Who I want to win: Lillie Langtry
Who I think will win: Lillie Langtry
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: Tapitsfly
I hope you enjoyed Part 1, tomorrow Part 2 with five more races, and then on Thurs the final four races.
October 2, 2009
Super Weekend!
Final Preperations for the Breeder's Cup really start get going tomorrow at Belmont, 5 G1's in 5 dividesons (Classic, Ladies Classic, Turf, F/M Turf, Sprint). Here is a breakdown of each race,
Beldame- A small field of 5 including the coupled entry of Captains Lover (SAF) and 07 Beldame winner Unbridled Belle. However, 4 time G1 winner Music Note is the one to beat, she won the Ballerina last time out (over Indian Blessing and Informed Decideson both who came back to win). Also she finally is rounding back into form. There is some rain in the forcast, and that might give Belle in advantage. She won the Obeah in the mud, however she doesn't care for it with a dismal proformance in the 07 Breeder's Cup Distaff. I gotta go with those two preferably Unbridled Belle on top as this more then likely will be her final start of her career.
Flower Bowl- One word: Dynaforce. The Beverly D champ comes back to defend her Flower Bowl title. Criticsisim may give her a run for her money, but the daughter of Dynaformer is my pick for the race. And in all honesty, if she wins this I think she can upset the Euros and Forever Together in the F/M Turf (Unless my Arc pick comes over, but I'll get to that race in a little bit).
Vosburgh- Like the Beldame, a small field but very talented. I'm going to go right away and throw out Munnings. With rain in the forcast, and his last two races he ran okay over it (a pair of thirds, Haskell (which he wouldn't have won anyway) and the King's Bishop (which he should have won)). Instead I'm going with the 1-2 from the Vanderbilt, except in reverse order. So, I'm putting my boy Go Go Shoot first and hopefully Fablous Strike finishes second.
Joe Hirish Turf Classic Invit.- Will he go, or won't he? That is the question. Gio Ponti, who could be the one to beat in the BC Turf (unless Sea the Stars comes over) could instead go out to California for his final prep. With that being said, he and Al Khali are my picks. Pressious Passion is another one, but I'm concerned about the soft turf with him. The last time he ran over a course like that he finished last.
Jockey Club Gold Cup- Outside of the Belmont, this is the big race at the Elmont track. Summer Bird can become the first horse since Easy Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Gold Cup. That's pretty amazing to be mentioned in the same breath as the arch rival to Sunday Silence. However, I'm going to say he comes up just a bit short in that bid. Instead, I'm going with my heart and going with Dry Martini. He's trained by one of my favorite trainers in Barclay Tagg, and ridden by Edgar Prado. Like Summer Bird, Dry Martini has a win at this distance of mile and quarter with a win in the Suburban in July. However, with the possible rain I do like Summer Bird here and really wouldn't be suprised if he wins. Macho Again who is trying to become the lastest lose to Girl Wonder Rachel (Alexandra) and win next time out. Asiatic Boy is trying to rebound from his first off the board finish in the US. As for the other three year old in the race, Quality Road, as useal I'm tossing him. I really don't get the hype and the last time he ran at this distance he failed miserbly. So my top four in any order are Summer Bird, Dry Martini, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy. Preferably with either Summer Bird or Dry Martini on top.
Also this weekend: a pair of juvi races at Oak Tree, a pair of juvi turf races at Belmont, Cal Cup (Lava Man's half brother Enriched goes in the Cal Cup Mile), Goldikova runs in her final prep for her title defence in the BC Mile, and the Arc. I see Sea the Stars and Stacelita both going down this weekend, and I'm going with Dar Re Mi (to get revenge on the French) and defending BC Turf champ Conduit. If Dar Re Mi wins, it would be back to back titles for fillies (the undefeated Zarkava won last year).
Also a few notes, Commentator will be going to Old Friends. And sadly, the dam of Ashado, Sunriver and Ballado's Halo (dam of one of my favorite colts Speight the Halo), Goulash lost her battle with laminatis. I will have a full recap of this past weekends races on Sunday.
Beldame- A small field of 5 including the coupled entry of Captains Lover (SAF) and 07 Beldame winner Unbridled Belle. However, 4 time G1 winner Music Note is the one to beat, she won the Ballerina last time out (over Indian Blessing and Informed Decideson both who came back to win). Also she finally is rounding back into form. There is some rain in the forcast, and that might give Belle in advantage. She won the Obeah in the mud, however she doesn't care for it with a dismal proformance in the 07 Breeder's Cup Distaff. I gotta go with those two preferably Unbridled Belle on top as this more then likely will be her final start of her career.
Flower Bowl- One word: Dynaforce. The Beverly D champ comes back to defend her Flower Bowl title. Criticsisim may give her a run for her money, but the daughter of Dynaformer is my pick for the race. And in all honesty, if she wins this I think she can upset the Euros and Forever Together in the F/M Turf (Unless my Arc pick comes over, but I'll get to that race in a little bit).
Vosburgh- Like the Beldame, a small field but very talented. I'm going to go right away and throw out Munnings. With rain in the forcast, and his last two races he ran okay over it (a pair of thirds, Haskell (which he wouldn't have won anyway) and the King's Bishop (which he should have won)). Instead I'm going with the 1-2 from the Vanderbilt, except in reverse order. So, I'm putting my boy Go Go Shoot first and hopefully Fablous Strike finishes second.
Joe Hirish Turf Classic Invit.- Will he go, or won't he? That is the question. Gio Ponti, who could be the one to beat in the BC Turf (unless Sea the Stars comes over) could instead go out to California for his final prep. With that being said, he and Al Khali are my picks. Pressious Passion is another one, but I'm concerned about the soft turf with him. The last time he ran over a course like that he finished last.
Jockey Club Gold Cup- Outside of the Belmont, this is the big race at the Elmont track. Summer Bird can become the first horse since Easy Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Gold Cup. That's pretty amazing to be mentioned in the same breath as the arch rival to Sunday Silence. However, I'm going to say he comes up just a bit short in that bid. Instead, I'm going with my heart and going with Dry Martini. He's trained by one of my favorite trainers in Barclay Tagg, and ridden by Edgar Prado. Like Summer Bird, Dry Martini has a win at this distance of mile and quarter with a win in the Suburban in July. However, with the possible rain I do like Summer Bird here and really wouldn't be suprised if he wins. Macho Again who is trying to become the lastest lose to Girl Wonder Rachel (Alexandra) and win next time out. Asiatic Boy is trying to rebound from his first off the board finish in the US. As for the other three year old in the race, Quality Road, as useal I'm tossing him. I really don't get the hype and the last time he ran at this distance he failed miserbly. So my top four in any order are Summer Bird, Dry Martini, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy. Preferably with either Summer Bird or Dry Martini on top.
Also this weekend: a pair of juvi races at Oak Tree, a pair of juvi turf races at Belmont, Cal Cup (Lava Man's half brother Enriched goes in the Cal Cup Mile), Goldikova runs in her final prep for her title defence in the BC Mile, and the Arc. I see Sea the Stars and Stacelita both going down this weekend, and I'm going with Dar Re Mi (to get revenge on the French) and defending BC Turf champ Conduit. If Dar Re Mi wins, it would be back to back titles for fillies (the undefeated Zarkava won last year).
Also a few notes, Commentator will be going to Old Friends. And sadly, the dam of Ashado, Sunriver and Ballado's Halo (dam of one of my favorite colts Speight the Halo), Goulash lost her battle with laminatis. I will have a full recap of this past weekends races on Sunday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)