I will be posting several posts on how much confidence I have in a horse winning the Kentucky Derby this year. This is something new that I am trying, and I'm not 100% sure how well this is going to go. For that reason, there might be many horses mentioned who could be lower or higher then they really should be. The horses are going in reverse order with the least amount of confidence to the most. For now, here are #'s 5-1!
Showing posts with label Derby confidence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Derby confidence. Show all posts
April 28, 2013
April 27, 2013
Derby Confidence: #'s 10-6
I will be posting several posts on how much confidence I have in a horse winning the Kentucky Derby this year. This is something new that I am trying, and I'm not 100% sure how well this is going to go. For that reason, there might be many horses mentioned who could be lower or higher then they really should be. The horses are going in reverse order with the least amount of confidence to the most. For now, here are #'s 10-6!
April 24, 2013
Derby Confidence: #'s 15-11
I will be posting several posts on how much confidence I have in a horse winning the Kentucky Derby this year. This is something new that I am trying, and I'm not 100% sure how well this is going to go. For that reason, there might be many horses mentioned who could be lower or higher then they really should be. The horses are going in reverse order with the least amount of confidence to the most. For now, here are #'s 15-11!
April 23, 2013
Derby Confidence: #'s 20-16
I will be posting several posts on how much confidence I have in a horse winning the Kentucky Derby this year. This is something new that I am trying, and I'm not 100% sure how well this is going to go. For that reason, there might be many horses mentioned who could be lower or higher then they really should be. The horses are going in reverse order with the least amount of confidence to the most. Please note that this is not an prediction of order of finish, just how much confidence I have in the horse to win the race. For now, here are #'s 20-16!
20. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten): Yes he won the Spiral in his last start, and he does have a couple of dirt wins, but those where races taken off the grass. Sadly the reason why he #20 is that the fact Uncaptured who he defeated in the Spiral could only finish 10th in the Bluegrass. Cerro who he finished right behind in an allowance race was in the Lexington on Saturday. He does have a few good things on his side though in that his sire was second in the Preakness and won the Santa Anita Handicap at 4. Also his trainer won the Belmont a few years ago, but Ruler On Ice has turned out to be a fluke.
19. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute): The Sunland Derby winner had a possible foot issue last week, that looks to be okay now. Also the route he is taking has only produced 1 winner of the big race and he didn't even win the Sunland Derby (Mine That Bird). Even though his dad did his best running going 1 turn, he is by a Derby winner (Real Quiet). Charlie's dam is out of a stablemate to Lute's sire the legendary Silverbulletday.
18. Vyjack (Into Mischief): This is the first horse who I don't have alot of confidence in because of his pedigree. Plus it sounds like he came out of the Wood Memorial with an infection (at least that's what I read on Twitter). He will also be under more survalince due to his trainer's recent positive in New York. His 1/2 brother Prime Cut could beat only one horse home in the 2011 Belmont.
17. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy): It's not his fault that he's this low and no believe it or not it has nothing to do with my dislike of his sire, it's just that... The Arkansas Derby kinda fell apart and well he was one of those who didn't disappoint. The good news is that he does have a good 2nd over the Churchill surface, but the winner of the race Uncaptured did not do well in his Derby preps this spring.
16. Falling Sky (Lion Heart): The Tampa Bay Derby is possibly the key race year. The winner came back to win the Wood Memorial, and the runner up winning the Bluegrass. So why is he so low? Even though he's by a Derby runner up and out of a mare by a Derby winner, I'm a little concerned about stamina. His dam never won going two turns and the one time she ran in a stakes race past six furlongs, she crossed the wire last. Also he could only manage fourth in the AR Derby. Still, I think he had a better chance to win then the runner up of that race IMO.
20. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten): Yes he won the Spiral in his last start, and he does have a couple of dirt wins, but those where races taken off the grass. Sadly the reason why he #20 is that the fact Uncaptured who he defeated in the Spiral could only finish 10th in the Bluegrass. Cerro who he finished right behind in an allowance race was in the Lexington on Saturday. He does have a few good things on his side though in that his sire was second in the Preakness and won the Santa Anita Handicap at 4. Also his trainer won the Belmont a few years ago, but Ruler On Ice has turned out to be a fluke.
19. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute): The Sunland Derby winner had a possible foot issue last week, that looks to be okay now. Also the route he is taking has only produced 1 winner of the big race and he didn't even win the Sunland Derby (Mine That Bird). Even though his dad did his best running going 1 turn, he is by a Derby winner (Real Quiet). Charlie's dam is out of a stablemate to Lute's sire the legendary Silverbulletday.
18. Vyjack (Into Mischief): This is the first horse who I don't have alot of confidence in because of his pedigree. Plus it sounds like he came out of the Wood Memorial with an infection (at least that's what I read on Twitter). He will also be under more survalince due to his trainer's recent positive in New York. His 1/2 brother Prime Cut could beat only one horse home in the 2011 Belmont.
17. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy): It's not his fault that he's this low and no believe it or not it has nothing to do with my dislike of his sire, it's just that... The Arkansas Derby kinda fell apart and well he was one of those who didn't disappoint. The good news is that he does have a good 2nd over the Churchill surface, but the winner of the race Uncaptured did not do well in his Derby preps this spring.
16. Falling Sky (Lion Heart): The Tampa Bay Derby is possibly the key race year. The winner came back to win the Wood Memorial, and the runner up winning the Bluegrass. So why is he so low? Even though he's by a Derby runner up and out of a mare by a Derby winner, I'm a little concerned about stamina. His dam never won going two turns and the one time she ran in a stakes race past six furlongs, she crossed the wire last. Also he could only manage fourth in the AR Derby. Still, I think he had a better chance to win then the runner up of that race IMO.
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