Preakness Picks

Ah the Preakness, the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown. To be honest if the Kentucky Derby is the Oscars, the Preakness is the Golden Globes. Just as famous, but a bit under appreciated. Lets take a look at the field.

Race 12 - Preakness S. (Grade I)

Purse $1,500,000. For Three-Year-Olds, $15,000 To Pass The Entry Box, Starters To Pay $15,000 Additional. 60% of the purse to the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight 126 pounds for Colts and Geldings, 121 pounds for Fillies. A replica of the Woodlawn Vase will be presented to the winning owner to remain his or her personal property. One And Three Sixteenth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Dynamic Impact (KY) 3/C L M Mena 126 M E Casse 12/1
2 2 General a Rod (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 126 M J Maker 15/1
3 3 California Chrome (CA) 3/C L V Espinoza 126 A Sherman 3/5
4 4 Ring Weekend (KY) 3/G L A Garcia 126 H G Motion 20/1
5 5 Bayern (KY) 3/C L R Napravnik 126 B Baffert 10/1
6 6 Ria Antonia (KY) 3/F L C H Borel 121 T M Amoss 30/1
7 7 Kid Cruz (KY) 3/C L J Pimentel 126 L Rice 20/1
8 8 Social Inclusion (KY) 3/C L L Contreras 126 M J Azpurua 5/1
9 9 Pablo Del Monte (FL) 3/C L J Sanchez 126 W A Ward 20/1
10 10 Ride On Curlin (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 126 W G Gowan 10/1

Historically speaking, if you did not run in the Preakness then you had no chance in the race. Since 2003, only 2 horses have won the Preakness without running in the Derby Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. That being said, Social Inclusion is the best of the newcomers. He was third in the Wood and the 1-2 in the Wood finished 4th and 5th in the Derby. He only has 3 starts under his belt (as did Bernardini) and his dad was runner up in the Derby but was up track in the Preakness (won by Rachel). General a Rod makes his second start for his new connections, but I wished that he waited for the Belmont.

If you are a girl power fan, then your trifecta should be Bayern (ridden by Rosie), Kid Cruz (trained by Linda) and Ria Antonia (the filly in the race). However Bayern and Ria don't have a chance in this race. Especially the latter, sure she'll be ridden by Rachel's rider and her come from behind style suits him. However, she was 6th in the KY Oaks and hasn't crossed the wire first since last July. That being said, unlike Rags to Riches and Rachel, she has experience against males (it didn't go well, but the winner of that race Conquest Titan did start his TC trail well before tailing off at the end). 

Then there is California Chrome. There was a tizzy made on Twitter after it was found out that he was coughing, and that he was found to have a small blister in his throat (which apparently he had pre Derby as well). If it he wins, then we worried about nothing. If he loses, then well... questions will be asked. His post is not ideal as the speed is outside of him. However, great horses overcome obstacles like this.

So who wins? Well in my heart I want a Ria/CC/Kid tri. However, that's not who I'm going to go with. After going back and forth between four horses I've decided that my Preakness pick will be Kid Cruz. He's taking a monster step up in class, but he has something that no one else has on this year's Preakness; a win on the track. California Chrome for second, Social Inclusion for third and Ring Weekend for fourth.

Good luck to all and safe travels!

Preakness Recap: The Legends Return

Gary Stevens and D. Wayne Lukas both won their last Triple Crown races before I started to follow horse racing. That is until today when Oxbow held of Itsmyluckyday and Mylute to win their third and sixth Preakness' respectfully. Orb finished fourth after having trouble in the race. While we will go another year without a TC winner, I'm actually okay with that. It was a great race and there will be more races down the road for Oxbow and Orb to face off. I'm happy for both Wayne and Gary, not bad for a trainer people thought was washed up and a jockey who just came out of retirement earlier this year... at 50 no less.

The third storyline in this is Calumet Farm's first classic win in over 40 years with Foward Pass, but this was the first time that the Devil Red was not in the winners circle. Instead new owner Brad Kelley's Black and Gold where.

With this win, it also almost guarantees that Gary will not work for NBC for the Triple Crown, Oxbow I'm sure is Belmont bound. He actually has a big chance in the race.

Other notes

Itsmyluckyday suprised me big time!

How about Mylute and Rosie! Great race by them.

Departing= Overhyped, the same can be said about Will Take Charge and Goldencents

LeComte winners are awesome! (07 winner Hard Spun had two runners up in stakes races on the undercard, Oxbow won this year) 

I had planned to do a PL post had Orb lost on the winner. However, I will not be doing Oxbow. It's because I've already done a post on his cross (Awesome Again x Cee's Tizzy mare)  last year. It was on his cousin (they are out of full sisters) last year's Belmont runner up the very inspirational Paynter. 

So we head to the mile and half race in three weeks. Will the Wayne train continue with either him or his two former assistants  who where 2-3 in the Derby? Will a filly be entered? Will Orb pull a Riva Ridge/Swale/Thunder Gulch (win Derby, loses Preakness win Belmont)? We'll find out soon enough.

Preakness Preview

  The field is set for this years Preakness! A field of nine are entered, lets take a look at this year's field.

1.ORB Rosario

2.GOLDENCENTS Krigger

3.TITLETOWN FIVE Leparoux

4.DEPARTING Hernandez Jr.

5.MYLUTE Napravnik

6.OXBOW Stevens

7.WILL TAKE CHARGE Smith

8.GOVENOR CHARLIE Garcia

9.ITSMYLUCKYDAY Valezquez

The big winner of this draw IMO is Oxbow and Will Take Charge. Orb is the biggest loser getting the rail, although with his running style, it shouldn't be a huge problem. Of the new shooters, the best of them is Departing. He comes out of the same prep as Mylute, Golden Soul and Revolutionary. Of course all three of them ran very well in the Derby. He won the IL Derby three weeks ago. That being said, history is not on his side with three non Derby starters winning the Preakness since 2000 (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra). Although his jockey won the BCC and his trainer did train the only horse to defeat Zenyatta (Blame). 

Several of the jockeys in this years race have MD connections. Rosie starting her career there, Gary, Mike and Martin all Preakness winners. This is going to be a very interesting race, and honestly any of these horses except for Will Take Charge (I don't think he's as good as everyone thinks he is) and Titletown Five can win. So who wins? I've been going back and forth for my third place finisher, but I think even with the post Orb gets it done. Departing will give his old pasturemate a run for his money, but will come up just short. For third, I'm sticking with my heart and going with Oxbow.

IF Orb loses, then I would like to see Oxbow win with Orb second and Mylute finishing in third.

Preakness Vault: 2005 Afleet Alex

The 2005 KY Derby had two interesting storylines going into the race, the first was Bellamy Road, the Wood Memorial winner who was owned by George Steinbrenner of the New York Yankees and trained by Nick Zito who had spoiled Smarty Jones' TC bid the year before with Birdstone. The other storyline was of Afleet Alex who had won the Arkansas Derby and was coming out of Delaware Park, just 1/2 hour away from Smarty's home base of Philadelphia Park. Of course 5th place finisher in the SA Derby Giacomo who was 50-1 gave Mike Smith his first Derby winner and put his trainer John Shierffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss (of course Jerry being the M in A & M Records) on the map. While most people thought that Giacomo was a fluke (including myself), down at Pimlico, Alex was getting ready to take another shot at him.

Afleet Alex had already been an overachiever by the time he had crossed the wire 3rd at Churchill. In matter of fact, the Northern Afleet colt was a bit of a miracle foal. His dam Maggy Hawk couldn't produce enough milk, and until a nurse mare could be brought in his breeder John Silvertand's daughter fed him using a beer bottle. As a two year old, Alex won the Hopeful and was second in both the Champagne and Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In his first start at three, he won the Mountain Valley at Oaklawn as his trainer Tim Richey had decided to take the Smarty path to the Derby. In the Rebel though, he got a jockey change from Jeremy Rose who had ridden him in all of his starts to John Velazquez who was the regular rider of Ashado who had won the Kentucky Oaks the year before. It was disaster as Alex would finish last behind Greater Good and Rockport Harbor (whose trainer and jockey where the same as Smarty). In the AR Derby, all was righted as Rose was back on him and they won by open lengths. If it weren't for a dead rail at Churchill that First Saturday in May, Alex would have most likely won. Instead he and Jeremy would have to settle for third behind Giacomo and Closing Argument.

Facing a full field of 14, Alex was sent off as the favorite. He sat towards the back of the pack for most of the race until the final turn. As they turned for home, longshot Scrappy T who was coming off a win in the Withers had the lead. It looked like that Giacomo was going to come up short to a horse who like him would have defied the odds. Except there was one horse moving forward in a field of backpedalling horses, Afleet Alex. Then disaster almost struck. Ramon Dominguez who was riding Scrappy T and at the time riding at Delaware Park (as was Jeremy) hit Scrappy on the right hand side. That made him veer out... right in Alex's path. What would happen next? Well take a look and see for your self.



That moment would be named the NTRA moment of the year for 2005. With no Triple Crown on the line, both Alex and Giacomo headed to the Belmont for the rubber match. It turned out to be no contest as Alex blew by the Derby winner easily to win the mile and half race. Sadly, it turned out to be his final race as it was discovered that an injury more then likely suffered in the infamous bump and run had ended his season. Alex would be named 3yo Champion Male over Travers winner and BCC runner up Flower Alley and Champion Sprinter Lost in the Fog. Both Alex and Foggy though would lose HOY honors to St. Liam who had won the BCC that same season.

As a sire, Alex has Travers winner Afleet Express and BC Marathon winner Afleet Again. He is also the sire of Afleeting Lady, who is a 1/2 sister to fellow Preakness winner Shackleford.

Preakness Vault: 1983 Deputed Testamony

Sunny's Halo was coming into the race as the Derby champion. Surely he was the one to beat in the race. Somebody forgot to tell that to the local Deputed Testamony. Trained by Bill Boniface, the Traffic Cop colt entered the Preakness off a win in the Keystone Stakes, and had won the Tesio over the Pimlico  Before he was 6th in the Bluegrass and won the Tesio Stakes which is Pimlico's prep for the race. Deputed Testamony would not disappoint the hometown crowd as he won over Desert Wine and High Honors with Sunny's Halo finishing in sixth. Here is the video of that:



Deputed Testamony would go onto finish 6th in the Belmont and come back to win the Haskell two starts later. He would end his career with two wins at Pimlico with his final stakes win the City of Baltimore Handicap his final race as well. He would stand his entire stallion career in Maryland where he would sire Hurry Home Hillary, the dam of G1 winner Bellamy Road, stakes winners Under Oath and Donald's Pride as well as G3 placed Churchbell Chimes. He is also the broodmare sire of G1 winner Whitmore's Conn. Deputed Testamony passed away in September of 2012 at Bonita Farm where he was born and stood. He was 32.

Fun Fact: As a 2yo, Deputed Testamony would finish second to Dixieland Band (who would become the grandsire of Union Rags and Broodmare Sire of Street Sense) in the Maryland Juvenile Championship the 3rd place finisher Caveat would win the Belmont in 1983.

Preakness Preview

So here we are less then 24 hours away from this year's Preakness. Who will wear the Black Eyed Susans? Lets take a look at this year's field

PP

Horse

Jockey

Age/ Sex

Weight

Trainer

Morning Line

Comments

1	Tiger Walk	R A Dominguez	3/C	126	I Correas IV	30/1	4th in the Wood Memorial. Buzzy horse, has a Preakness runner up knows the Pimlico surface well on his back. Gets blinkers.
2	Teeth of the Dog	J Bravo	3/C	126	M R Matz	15/1	3rd in the Wood Memorial. Neither the winner of that race or the runner up ran well at Churchill. Pimlico owes his trainer.
3	Pretension	J Santiago	3/C	126	C W Grove	30/1	Won the Caronero II which is the local prep. 9th in the IL Derby before that. Locals haven't had the best of luck in this race recently.
4	Zetterholm	J Alvarado	3/C	126	R E Dutrow Jr.	20/1	3 for 4 this year including winning the Patsyprospect last time out. It will take quite a bit for him to defeat these horses.
5	Went the Day Well	J R Velazquez	3/C	126	H G Motion	6/1	Was a closing 4th in the Derby. Connections where a heartbreaking second in last year's race to Shackleford. A big chance.
6	Creative Cause	J Rosario	3/C	126	M Harrington	6/1	5th in the Derby after a horrible trip. However, does he have the heart to cross the wire first in a big race.
7	Bodemeister	M E Smith	3/C	126	B Baffert	8/5	Lead basically all the way in the Derby to finish a solid second. He'll be on the lead again, but how much did he leave at Churchill.
8	Daddy Nose Best	J R Leparoux	3/C	126	S M Asmussen	12/1	10th in the Derby, was a very buzzy horse before the race before faltering. Regains jockey who rode him in his Sunland Derby win.
9	I'll Have Another	M Gutierrez	3/C	126	D F O'Neill	5/2	The Derby winner, post position is good. Jockey won 2 races yesterday at Pimlico to get acquainted with the surface. The question is, will the pace be fast enough for him? He won't get the perfect trip that he got last time.
10	Optimizer	C S Nakatani	3/C	126	D W Lukas	30/1	Has absolutely no business to be in this race after finishing 11th in the Derby. However, it's Lukas, so I really shouldn't be surprised should I.
11	Cozzetti	J Lezcano	3/C	126	D L Romans	30/1	The defending trainer is back. 4th in the AR Derby behind Bode. In the top three only twice of seven career starts.

Who will win? Well new shooters don't have the greatest luck with only 3 newcomers since 2000 winning (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra). Of the new shooters, I think only Tiger Walk has a chance, and his post isn't great, plus a last minute jockey change (because Kent D. failed an breathalyzer today at Belmont). Went the Day Well's connections are surely chomping at the big after last year's heartbreaking loss. Still, I think it's between Bodemeister and I'll Have Another, with Went the Day Well possibly getting in the mix as well. Not sure what to think of Creative Cause who maybe a brilliant horse espcially because unlike the two other Californians in this race, he went home. In the end I think I'll Have Another is a good horse, but not 100% sure he's good enough to take the Triple Crown. My pick for this year's Preakness is I'll Have Another. Yeah, I know I tried to find a horse who could beat him, but I think Bode might have left it all at Churchill, Went the Day Well seems to me being a bit of an up and down horse, but I have him as my runner up. Bode for third and Creative Cause for fourth. 

The Dark Side of the Preakness

When the 11 horses in this year's Preakness enter this year's gate, 3 of them will be overshadowed by their trainers. Zetterholm, Daddy Nose Best and the Derby winner I'll Have Another have three of the many bad apples in horse racing. Rick Dutrow Jr., Steve Asmussen and Doug O'Neill have numerous drug positives in their careers.

With Rick Dutrow, he is currently battling a 10 year suspension thanks to his numerous positives especially in New York where he is based. Even with that, he "thinks" that he is "good for the sport". However, the truth is that he's not. Many people don't like him (myself included), because of his brashness. The 2008 Derby and Preakness winner also last year had a horse put on the Steward's List in New York for running a horse within a 12 day period 4 times. He also admittedly gave Big Brown steroids and called out another trainer for being a cheater.

In Steve Asmussen's case, his positives have been almost forgotten about thanks to his popular runners Curlin and Rachel Alexandra. However, he's gotten caught with his hand in the cookie jar as well. In July of 2006 to January 2007, he was suspended. In May of 2008, he had another positive which he promised to fight. Still he was given a 6 month suspension (however I'm not sure if he ever served that). On top of it, in 2007 Curlin was running steroids, but was taken off them after his owner the late Jess Jackson asked them to be removed.

Finally, there is this year's Derby winner. Doug O'Neill currently has as many as 15 horses on the vets list in California. It doesn't help that the week before the Derby, I'll Have Another was automatically put on the vets list when he was given a controversial treatment called Shock Wave therapy. However, this NY Times article takes the cake. Not only does it talking about his history of milkshakes (not the kind you or I would want to drink), but the story of him dumping a filly by the name of Burna Dette at Los Alamitos where she sadly broke down and was euthanized. While his history isn't brushed under the carpet as much as Asmussen's, many people overlook his history as well. Why? Lava Man. He was so popular during his career, that I think many people root for him to well as a stable pony. 


There are certinally more bad apples out there that we know of, but right now these three are the most high profile trainers out there.

Preakness Predictions

The big question is, can Animal Kingdom do what he did at Churchill in what is his trainers adopted home state? Lets take a look at this year's Preakness field.

Pimlico - May 21, 2011

Race 12 - 6:18 PM EXACTA, TRIFECTA & 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 12 & 13 ) $1 SUPER HIGH 5 / 2nd HALF OF BLACK-EYED SUSAN / PREAKNESS DOUBLE

STAKES
Preakness S. (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds, $10,000 To Pass The Entry Box, Starters To Pay $10,000 Additional. 60% of the purse to the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight 126 pounds for Colts and Geldings, 121 pounds for Fillies. A replica of the Woodlawn Vase will be presented to the winning owner to remain his or her personal property. First closing January 22, 2011 Second closing March 26, 2011. One And Three Sixteenth Miles.
P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Astrology (KY) 3/C LA M E Smith 126 S M Asmussen 15/1
2 2 Norman Asbjornson (PA) 3/C LA J Pimentel 126 C W Grove 30/1
3 3 King Congie (KY) 3/C LA R Albarado 126 T Albertrani 20/1
4 4 Flashpoint (FL) 3/C L C H Velasquez 126 W A Ward 20/1
5 5 Shackleford (KY) 3/C LA J L Castanon 126 D L Romans 12/1
6 6 Sway Away (KY) 3/C LA G K Gomez 126 J Bonde 15/1
7 7 Midnight Interlude (KY) 3/C LA M Garcia 126 B Baffert 15/1
8 8 Dance City (VA) 3/C LA R A Dominguez 126 T A Pletcher 12/1
9 9 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C LA R Maragh 126 K Ritvo 6/1
10 10 Dialed In (KY) 3/C LA J R Leparoux 126 N P Zito 9/2
11 11 Animal Kingdom (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 H G Motion 2/1
12 12 Isn't He Perfect (KY) 3/C LA E S Prado 126 D Shivmangal 30/1
13 13 Concealed Identity (MD) 3/G LA S Russell 126 E D Gaudet 30/1
14 14 Mr. Commons (KY) 3/C LA V Espinoza 126 J A Shirreffs 20/1

Astrology has a trainer that won the race in 2009 and 2007, as well as a jockey who won the race in 1993. Norman Asbjornson's trainer trained Silmaril who outside of Cigar and recent HOF inductee Safely Kept is the one of the most accomplished MD breds. King Congie's trainer won the race in 2006, his jockey won it the next year. However, he is invoking to memory of an employee of his owners (who named him after himself). Flashpoint will be part of the speed. However, his trainer is known for his two year olds. Shackleford suprised people in the FL Derby and followed it up with a 4th place finish in the Derby. He is one of 2 horse eligible for a bonus. Sway Away just missed the Derby and is one of 4 horses whose sires won at Pimlico. Midnight Interlude gets a key jockey change, last year Lookin at Lucky won this race with the same rider. Dance City was third in the AR Derby and defeated a 1/2 brother to Bluegrass Cat in an allowance race. Mucho Macho Man will be starting from the same spot that my all time favorite horse won his Preakness from in 2003. Dialed In could be in for the biggest payday since Visa offered $5 million for a TC winner. Should he win, his owner will get 5 million dollars for winning the Preakness. Of course Animal Kingdom is the champ and he has a trainer who is based in Maryland. Isn't He Perfect is well... not perfect. His jockey is former local, but he also has had heartache in this race back in 2006. Concealed Identity is the local, he won the Tesio before his run here. And you think Rosie Napravnik and Jinks Fires had a big age diffence. The youngest jockey and oldest trainer in this year's Derby have nothing on CI's jockey and trainer. Much like Sway Away and Norman (who I forgot to mention before in his preview), his dad won this race (SW it was in 2005, CI 2004 and Norman 1998 I think you can figure out who they are). Mr. Commons gets the 2002 Preakness winning jockey and 2005 3rd place trainer, he also is trying to follow in his sire's footsteps (dad defeated AK's dad in the BC Mile).

So who gets it done? History is not on the new shooters side. Since 2000, there have been five TC spoilers in the Preakness, 3 of them (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra) did not race in the Derby (the other two of course where Afleet Alex and Lookin at Lucky). With that being said, I don't buy Animal Kingdom. I think he was a horse who had things go his way in the Derby. No offence to his trainer or jockey, but his main owner irks many people and rubbed me the wrong way. I want a Deputed Testamony, which is why I'm going with Concealed Identity. He would be a popular win, since his trainer Eddie Gaudet has been in Maryland for a long time and it could send his jockey Sheldon Russell into the stradosphere. The thirteen post isn't ideal, but a horse has recently won from that post (see Rachel). Plus fans of possibly the second most popular Preakness winner this century would be extreamly happy since this would be his first G1 winner as a sire (of course I'm talking about Smarty Jones). It's a step up in class for him though, so the likelyhood of this actually happing is sadly slim to none :(. kMucho Macho Man for second and King Congee to suprise people for third.

Oh speaking of Smarty and Rachel, Versus is showing their Preakness highlights along with Alex's famous bump and run today at 3pm EDT just before Black Eyed Susan coverage begins.

The Redheaded Race and Maryland racing

What do the following horses have in common:

Point Given
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Afleet Alex
Bernardini
Curlin
Rachel Alexandra
Lookin at Lucky

All them where 3yo Champions (in PG,Curl and Rach's case HOY) and they all won the Preakness. That's right since 2001 the eventual 3yo Male Champion has won the Preakness. Of course the lone exception to this theory is Rachel who of course is a female. Still Lucky was able to hold that form last year when he took the race defeating Super Saver.

Unfortunately, while the Preakness is the most important Spring race it's also the most underappricated. Then again it doesn't help that Maryland racing is fighting for it's life (Laurel is probley going to be shut down due to slots at a local mall, Pimlico isn't doing much better). What could help? Either one of two horses winning. The first is the Derby champ Animal Kingdom, he would go into the Belmont the first since Big Brown to try for the Triple Crown. He's also based in Maryland at Fair Hill. His trainer gave Maryland racing a minor boost in the fall when Shared Account for Sagamore Farm (which is currently owned by Under Armor founder Kevin Plank) won the BC F/M Turf. Of course last weekend with the Derby win as well. The second horse is a bit will be a longshot if he goes, however he could make history for his sire.

The horse in question is Concealed Identity, who is trained by Ed Guadet. CI happens to a son of Smarty Jones. This is a horse who has a chance to be like 1983 Preakness winner Deputed Testamony who was born, raised, owned, trained and ridden by Maryland residents/natives. Much like the broodmare sire of Bellemy Road, CI won the Tesio this past Saturday over Ruler on Ice. If he where to go and win the Preakness, not only would he win a race that his dad won, he would also be Smarty's first G1 winner. It would also set him up to be the 3yo Champion Male.

Of course horses like Dialed In, Astrology, Mr. Commons, and others will be going after the Black Eyed Susans as well. Should be a fun race all around.

It's Preak Time!

Two weeks ago, Super Saver and Calvin Borel ruled Churchill Downs, giving Todd Pletcher his first Derby win. Now it's time for Pimlico and the second leg of the Triple Crown. The Preakness (named after Preakness, the first winner of the Dinner Party Stakes which is now the Dixie Stakes, a race that will also be run tomorrow), is often where championships are made (as I posted on Monday).

Here is this year's field for the 136th Preakness.

12th (6:12)
Preakness S. (G1)
1 3/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Aikenite Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 20-1
2 2 Schoolyard Dreams Coa E M Ryan Derek S 126 LA 15-1
3 3 Pleasant Prince Leparoux J R Ward Wesley A 126 LA 20-1
4 4 Northern Giant Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 30-1
5 5 Yawanna Twist Prado E S Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 30-1
6 6 Jackson Bend Smith M E Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 12-1
7 7 Lookin At Lucky Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 LA 3-1
8 8 Super Saver Borel C H Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 5-2
9 9 Caracortado Atkinson P Machowsky Michael 126 LA 10-1
10 10 Paddy O'Prado Desormeaux K J Romans Dale 126 LA 9-2
11 11 First Dude Dominguez R A Romans Dale 126 LA 20-1
12 12 Dublin Gomez G K Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 10-1

Aikenite is the stablemate of Super Saver, and is coming off a second place finish in the Derby Trial, Schoolyard Dreams finished second just in front of the Derby champ in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pleasant Prince is coming into the race off a third in the Derby Trial, Northern Giant finished second in the Lane's End, and ... Yawanna Twist will have to channel his inner Funny Cide (he's a NY Bred) to have a chance, he's also the closes to a local as his trainer is from Maryland and his jockey started his US career here. Jackson Bend, I still think is a bit overhyped, but he could suprise people. A much better post for Lookin at Lucky, and gets a key jockey change. The champ is here! No jockey has won back to back Preakness' since Pat Day did it three times in a row, and Calvin's record outside of Churchill isn't great, but Super Saver well he's the champ afterall. Caracortado (Scarface is Spanish), is considered to be the best of the new shooters. Paddy O' Prado and his stablemate First Dude have jockeys who know Pimlico very well and Dublin will try to win from the same post that his dad did.

There is not much pace in this race which means if Super Saver gets a loose lead he could wire them. The downside the last time a Maria's Mon colt was going against a Baffert trainee who was very good was Monarchos who ran in the 01 Preakness against Point Given, after defeating the son of Thunder Gulch in the Derby. However Point Given showed that he was a very good horse by turning the tables on Monarchos. That's the one thing that concerns me about this race is that Lucky will turn the tables on Super Saver. Then there is Caracoratdo who ran pretty well in California. I think Paddy sadly is going to bounce in this race. In all this is really not a great race sadly.

My top three are going to be Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and either Caracorado, Aikenite, Dublin or Yawanna Twist for third. It would be the second Preakness win for Calvin Borel, and first for both Todd Pletcher and WinStar as an owner (they of course bred Funny Cide). Now lets just hope that it ends up this way.

The undercard somewhat leaves alot to be desiered. Rainbow View is in action as is Nicanor and Just as Well, other then those three that's really it. Hopefully the Belmont undercard is better.

Of course my condolences go out to Carolyn Hine as she lost her wonderful Champion Skip Away today at the age of 17. #3 on the North American Earnings List, in a way Skip Away should be #1 as the 1-2 (Curlin and Cigar respectivly) had run in the Dubai World Cup which is why they are 1 and 2. Of many races, "Skippy" as he was called is honored with his own race the Skip Away down at Gulfstream. Somewhat fitting he passes away on the eve of the Preakness which he finished second in 1996 to Louis Quatorze. Skip Away was trained by Mrs. Hine's husband Sonny.

There's no chat tomorrow, I will be announcing the Summer Series List sometime in the next two to three weeks.

The Big Showdown is upon us

Girl vs Boys, Oaks winner vs Derby winner, Unknown trainer vs High profile trainer, backup vs backup. This is the 2009 Preakness Stakes field

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Morning-line odds
1. Big Drama David Fawkes John Velazquez 10-to-1
2. Mine That Bird Chip Woolley Mike Smith 6-to-1
3. Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 8-to-1
4. Luv Gov D. Wayne Lukas Jamie Theriot 50-to-1
5. Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 6-to-1
6. Terrain Al Stall Jr. Jeremy Rose 30-to-1
7. Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 12-to-1
8. General Quarters Tom McCarthy Julien Leparoux 20-to-1
9. Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 5-to-1
10. Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Alan Garcia 50-to-1
11. Take the Points Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 30-to-1
12. Tone It Down William Komlo Kent Desormeaux 50-to-1
13. Rachel Alexandra Steve Asmussen Calvin Borel 8-to-5

Big Drama won the Swale Stakes, however was DQ'ed after interfering with the second place finisher This One's For Phil. He did win the Delta Jackpot last year and has Johnny V on, he'll figure into the early speed. The more I think about it, the more I think Mine That Bird is a one hit wonder, I really like him, but his connections have turned me off. And while he has the last jockey to win on a 50-1 shot in the Derby (Giacomo), he won't get that rail trip he got last time. Mike Smith is in the irons for the first time, replacing Calvin Borel. (And if Zenyatta and Rach do go in the Classic this year, you can be sure that Mine will get his old jockey (and Mike's girlfriend), Chantal Sutherland, back in the saddle (Mike is the jockey for Zenyatta)). Musket Man, I think is a poorman's verison of Afleet Alex, he came into the Derby quite under radar, and I really like his chances here, although I don't think he'll be in the top three. However, I won't be suprised if he and Eibar Coa find a way to win. Luv Gov, almost didn't run in the race, if he was going to keep out Rachel Alexandra. While I think he will do better in the Belmont, I really hope that he does extremly well here, unfortanlly I don't know alot Jamie Teriot, even though he has ridden some nice horses before. While I'm still on the Friesan Fire bandwagon, I rather see him in the Belmont. This may be a little too short for him, and he did have some excuses in the Derby. But now that Gabe Saez has two Derbys under his belt, I trust him and hopefully (if Rach can't win), the two of them gives Larry Jones his first Triple Crown race win. While I consider Musket a poorman's Afleet Alex, Terrian's jockey Jeremy Rose knows Alex well as he rode the 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner. I don't know how well Terrian will do here, although having a local is very helpful. Can Snow Chief help Papa Clem? Well if it's 1985 all over again, it could happen. Rafael Bajarano will have to channel his inner (and fellow Cali based jock), Alex Solis. Thankfully after a little accident yesterday, Julian Leparoux's mount, General Quarters, is fine. He's still this year's Cinderella to me. I really do not like Pioneerof the Nile's chances here, no matter what Garrett Gomez does. Why is Flying Private in this race? He has last year's TC spoiler jockey in Alan Garcia... and well that's it. I would love to see Pimlico give some love to Edgar Prado after what happend in 2006, and I see it happening this year. I've been following his mount, Take the Points since earlier this year. He's coming out of an okay proformance in the SA Derby where the winner and 2nd place finisher, where 2nd and 5th in the Derby. It's funny, last year Kent Desormeaux last year was on the top of the world with Big Brown, and this year he rides the longest shot on the board, Tone It Down. Ironicly his trainer's late son, is a former quarterback for the University of Delaware, my hometown college team (Although he was on the run from the law. But that's a story for another day). While Kent went from winner to longshot, Calvin Borel is going from longshot winner, to favorite. While her post isn't the greatest, Rachel Alexandra, will be fine out of the 13 hole. Horses won't crowd around her, and she will be able to just get outside of Big Drama and rate like she did in the Oaks. Not too thrilled they pointed her to the race, but this is the shot in the arm that the Preakness needed. She will be the first filly to run since Excellent Meeting ran in 1999, unfortnally she DNFed as Charismatic showed he was no fluke. (Ironicly, TC spolier that year Lemon Drop Kid has a good chance to win the Belmont as a sire with Charitable Man)

So that is your 2009 Preakness. Should be an exciting race!

Top three:
Rachel (duh!)
Friesan
Points

I'll preview the Black-Eyed Susan Day and the undercard tomarrow.

Let's not crown Rachel yet

As much as I love Rachel Alexandra, lets not get too ahead of ourselves yet. And this article makes excellent points why we should not, link. Can she become a legend? Of course, especially if she can beat the boys in a Classic race. In matter of fact when you think about it, it happens all the time overseas.

Ouija Board, Sunline, Makybe Diva, Zakava

Those four where the best fillies and mares when they where racing.

Ouija Board- Group/Grade 1 winner, 2 time Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner, thrilling winner against Alexander Goldrun, upset DWC Electrocusionist in what would be his final start before his untimely death.

Sunline- Two time Cox Plate winner

Makybe Diva- the legendary Aussie super mare, multible Melborne Cup winner

Zakava- Undefted, Arc winner

Now in Rach's defence all four of those filles race on turf only, she has done it on dirt only. In many people's eyes she's the mordern day Ruffian, but people forget that Ruffian never lost a race. Also she lead at every call in her career, now granted what happend to her in her match race against Foolish Pleasure was a compleate accident. Fillies since her death have faced the boys, and they will continue to do so afterwards.

While we are on the subject of Foolish Pleasure, it makes me happy to say that a decedent of him Smarty Jones, will have a filly running in a prep for the Irish 1,000 Guineas this weekend. Good luck to Smart Coco and hopefully she does well.

And speaking of Smarty, Thoroughbred Times is reporting that Mill Ridge will pension his grandsire Gone West. Other then Smarty's dad Elusive Quality, Gone West is the sire of Breeder's Cup Turf winner Johar, BC Sprint winner Speightstown and many other nice horses. Link

Preakness news

Ahmed Zayat (owner of Derby second place finisher Pioneerof the Nile), may have one of his trainers enter a horse or two to keep Rach out of the race. Ironcily, one of his trainers is Steve Asmussen, the new trainer of Rach. I would not be suprised if the horse he enters is one of my favs, Professor Z. He's by Grand Slam (another Gone West foal) out the Saint Ballado mare Her Halo. The problem is, I don't think he's been working, maybe injured is my guess. It's going to be a fun week upcoming as the Battle for the Woodlawn Vase heats up. Link to an article about Pioneerof the Nile.

Friesan Fire (18th in the Derby as the favorite), is also pointing towards the Preakness, pending the outcome of his workout on Tuesday. I really don't like this move, but I'll be rooting for him.

And btw Edgar Prado will be riding my boy Take the Points in the Preakness. Excellent choice Todd, excellent choice.

Edit (1:42 PM): Mine That Bird will be getting a new jockey for the Preakness (if Rach goes), as Calvin Borel has commited to Rachel Alexandra. Link

Looks like we have a very interesting Preakness

Rachel Alexandra has been sold to....

Not Darley
Not Coolmore
Not IEAH
Not Fox Hill Farm
Not Zayat Stable

She got sold to Jess Jackson and Harold T. McCormick (whose he?), link. I really like Jess Jackson who unlike his partners that are better known as Midnight Cry, he seems to be clean. Although her what appears to be new trainer Steve Asmussen has some drug positives, he has sucess with 3yo fillies winning the KY Oaks in 2005 with Summerly. I feel bad about Hal Wiggins if he does lose Rach.

And oh yeah, she could show up for the Preakness*, which would put Calvin Borel in a predictment. Does he stay on Mine That Bird, or does he jump to what he says, "the best horse I've ever been on". Lets see Derby winner, Oaks winner, Derby winner, Oaks winner. Well he has a little bit over a week to figure that out. If he does jump off Mine, look for Canadian Chantal Sutherland (Who has ridden him before and a star in Animal Planet's Jockeys) to ride him. She would try to become only the second female to win a TC race (after Julie Krone) and possibly pass Emma-Jayne Wilson as the top female jock in Canada. Although apprently other jockeys agents have conntacted Mine's connections, just in case Rach does go to Preakness and Cal rides her.

This will be a fun week and half leading up to the second leg of the Triple Crown.

* I should note that I rather see her in the Belmont then the Preakness. A. she's be a fresher horse, b. I might be going to the Belmont. But she's not my horse, but I do hope they make the best decideson for her.

Preakness Bound

Now that Derby is over, we look foward to the Preakness. Mine That Bird is going, link. This is great news after yesterday, when his connections said that he was iffy for the race. If he wins, we may have a Triple Crown winner as he has the pedigree to go a mile and half. However there are some really nice horses standing in his way, including the horse who I think will win the race in Take the Points. Why? He's faced the Californians, including Derby runner up Pioneerof the Nile, and he has wins over dirt. Others going, include Big Drama who crossed the line first in the Swale, but was DQ'ed for interference.

I'm taking off tomarrow, but stay tuned on Weds for the Pedigree Spotlights on Lotta Kim and Mining My Own, the dams of Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird resepctivly. Thurs, will be the Stallion Spotlights and Friday, who was Preakness? I'll tell you.