Breeder's Cup Preview: Classic

Well here it is the final Preview before I breakdown the actual fields starting tomorrow. The big race of the weekend the Classic. I'm going to be doing this one a bit different then the other ones, as I'm going to preview all of the horses that are in the pre-entry list, even those who might be excluded from the race. Using a pro and con system. This will be in alphabetical order, with the exception of the two who need help of getting in.

Awesome Gem (Awesome Again)
Pros: He is coming into the Classic with a win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and was third in the 2007 Breeder's Cup Classic behind Curlin (Smart Strike) and Hard Spun (Danzig). He also has experience over the synthtic surface as he is based in Cali.
Cons: In reality he's a fill in for his ownershipmate Macho Again (Macho Uno), also he maybe a touch or two below the field.

Awesome Gem is cross nominated for the Mile (2nd peference)

Bullsbay (Tiznow)
Pros: He's coming in off two very solid races, with an upset win in the Whitney denying Commentator his third Whitney win and a 3rd place finish in the Woodward behind Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d' Oro) and the previously mentioned Macho Again.
Cons: He missed a prep with an injury and may not race at the Breeder's Cup at all.

Bullsbay is cross nominated for the Dirt Mile (1st perference) and will be pointing there instead of the Classic.

Colonel John (Tiznow)
Pros: Has a win over the course and is coming off a second place finish in the Goodwood, plus unlike the other Americans (with the exception of Awesome Gem and Einstein), he has turf experience and this is a big deal as synthtics are more turf leaning then dirt leaning. He also has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: If he gets into traffic troubles, expect a poor effort from him. He's not a horse who can overcome them that easily.

Colonel John is cross cominated for the Mile (2nd perference)

Einstein (BRZ) (Spend a Buck)
Pros: He's coming into the race a bit under radar after a 2nd place finish in the Pacific Classic, has a win over the course and has turf expereince. Has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: He hasn't run since August, so is he too fresh? Also if he bobbles at the beggining of the race, he's done. He bobbled in the Arlington Million two years in a row.

Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat)
Pros: Has a win at the Classic distance and a win over the course and has turf experience. Plus he has beaten the Euros this year with his Arlington Million win.
Cons: Dispite winning the Kilore, Manhattahn, Man O War and Arlington Million; he has the one coming in with the most downside. Why? Yes he was second last time out, but it showed that he had a weakness, plus while he has a win over the course, his record otherwise is not that great on the main track.

Mastercraftsman (IRE) (Danehill Dancer (IRE))
Pros: A European with upswing, this 3yo is the only Euro pre-entered into the Classic who has synthtic experience. Plus he is a Group 1 winner and was one of the few horses to get really make Sea the Stars (IRE) (Cape Cross (IRE)) work for his win.
Cons: Not all synthtics are alike

Mastercraftsman is cross-nominated into the Dirt Mile (1st preference)*

*For the record, I rather see him in the Classic instead of the Dirt Mile.



Mine That Bird (Birdstone)

Pros: Like Einstein, he's coming in under the radar. You rarely see a Derby winner come in under the radar, but then again he is only the third Derby winner since 2003 to particpate in the Breeder's Cup (Funny Cide and Giacomo being the other two). Plus he has run a prep over the surface last time out. Has a win at the Classic distance.

Cons: Unfortanlly that prep was a 6th place finish, secondly he has nothing to lose, nothing to gain out of this race as he has basically lost 3yo Champion Male, oh and he has a last place finish as a 2yo over the surface. Has yet to win since the Derby.



Quality Road (Elusive Quality)

Pros: He's never been on a synth surface, but it could be good for his feet which have quarter crack history. Is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. And the big swing is no muddy surfaces. His sire had the winner last year Raven's Pass.

Cons: The fact that he has yet to be on a synthetic surface, plus a quarter crack could open up which could result in a scratch. Also has yet to win at the distance



Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor)

Pros: Is coming off a win in the Super Derby, plus has the early speed that might help him out. He's owned by the same group that owns Raven's Pass.

Cons: Can he do well on a synth which is something he hasn't done in the past, and can he stretch his speed to a mile and a quarter.


Regal Ransom is cross nominated into the Dirt Mile (2nd perference)

Richard's Kid (Lemon Drop Kid)
Pros: Coming off a solid 3rd place finish in the Goodwood, has a win at the Classic distance which he won the Pacific Classic in a shocker. He also has the trainer to do it in Bob Baffert.
Cons: He's still a bit of an unknown after being brought over from Maryland earlier this year. He may go off at lower odds then he should, and there will be a bullseye on his back because he has done well the past two races.

Rip Van Winkle (IRE) (Galieo (IRE))
Pros: A G1 winner in Europe, and ran behind Sea the Stars earlier this year. He is supposed to be the better of the two possible Coolmore entrients into the Classic (he's the more likely of the two to go with Mastercraftsman in the Dirt Mile).
Cons: And there are lots of them zero synthtic experience and injury prone. Add in his sire who is a half brother to Sea the Stars, did not do well in the Classic in 2001. However that was over a dirt surface. And for a personal perspective, I rather see Mastercraftsman in the race then him. Of the two Euros expected in the race, I think he's the weak link.

Summer Bird (Birdstone)
Pros: A win in the Classic may give him a chance for Horse of the Year, as he would have won the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He's won at the Classic distance and has beaten Quality Road (twice), and Mine That Bird. His trainer is an up and comer and has a Hall of Fame jockey. With his credintals, one would think he is the solid favorite.
Cons: Unfortanlly that is not the case, with a certin mare who I will talk about in a few minutes. Also, while he trained over a synthtic surface as a two year old, he has yet to race over it. Training and racing, are two compleatly different animals IMO. The other big thing is he has done all of his running this year, so far it hasn't caught up to him. However, you have to wonder if the wear and tear will get to him on Saturday.

Summer Bird is cross nominated to the Turf (2nd preference)

Twice Over (GB) (Observatory)
Pros: Is coming of a win in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket, has a win at the Classic distance
Cons: Lack of synthtic experience and the compleate unknown of the two Euros expected to be entered. However that maybe a good thing.

Zenyatta (Street Cry (IRE))
Pros: Lets see, going for #14 in a row, basically on home turf (actual homebase is Hollywood Park), could get Horse of the Year with a win, has a win over the course, is the defending Ladies Classic champion, and oh yeah she's Zenyatta whatelse does she need to do.

Cons: This will not only be the longest she's ever gone, but she is facing the boys for the first time. She did almost lose this year, however it was on Poly which is not her best synth and at a mile and sixthteenth, where as she's better at a mile and eighth. If she where to be Horse of the Year, she needs to beat these boys and will close ground on Rachel Alexandra. But wouldn't it be something if it ends up in a tie and then the Horses of the Year would be a 3yo boy beating filly and a 5yo boy beating mare. Girl power all the way!

Zenyatta is cross nominated to the Ladies Classic (2nd perference)



And the two that need(ed) help:



Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride (ARG))
Pros: Has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, plus he has a win over synthetic tracks
Cons: Has yet to win the Classic distance, did not do well in the Triple Crown

Chocolate Candy is cross nominated to the Dirt Mile (1st perference)



Girolamo (A.P. Indy)
Pros: By a Classic winner, out of a Mr. Prospector mare who in turn is out of a mare who is the half sister to Private Account, the sire of Personal Ensign. So he has the pedigree to go that mile and quarter distance.
Cons: In this is a case where coming under the radar maybe a bad idea. While he won a G2 this year, his venture G1 company last year did not go well.

Girolamo is cross nominated Dirt Mile (2nd perference)



So that's it, that is your Breeder's Cup Classic preview. A few final notes, late tonight here in the US will be the Melbourne Cup which is Australia's biggest race of the year. I will have a mini recap of that race tomorrow as I plan to stay up and watch it on my computer. Starting tomorrow, I will have the fields for 5 of this year's Breeder's Cup races. Weds another 5 and then Thurs the final 4 races. I find this the easiest way to get everything up in a prompt matter.