Derby Top 15 4/2

It's been a while since I did one, with the FL Derby and the UAE Derby are over, it's a good time to look at my Top 15.

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway): The #1 3yo in the US right now. He'll be facing a few horses he's already beaten in next week's SA Derby.

2. Alpha (Bernardini): 2 for 2 at Aqueduct this year so far, he'll try to make it three for three in his Wood start next week.

3. Gemologist (Tiznow): Many where concerned that him starting in an allowance race over a stakes race would hurt him. Turned out to be wrong, he goes in the Wood next.

4. Dullahan (Even the Score): He did pop a splint, but it sounds like that Mine That Bird's brother will be ready for his next race. That will be a rematch between him and Howe Great in the Bluegrass.

5. Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy): He won the UAE Derby very impressively. While his one start on dirt wasn't anything to write about, that was as a 2yo. If Aiden O'Brien does bring him over from Ireland, he'll have run the farthest distance in a prep at a mile and 3/16 (the distance of the UAE Derby).

6. Hansen (Tapit): Waiting one more week for the Bluegrass instead of the Wood next week is a good move. You don't want to be too fresh for the Derby. Plus he's undefeated on synthetics.

7. Union Rags (Dixie Union): I will always like this colt, but his Derby chances took a serious hit after a disapointing, but closing third in the FL Derby. He did have to get a shoe replaced which might have cost him. Also the winner went gate to wire. He's starting to remind me a bit Street Sense and his leadup to Churchill. Julien Leparoux went onto Twitter Saturday to defend himself on his ride. Lets hope that he can back up that defending.

8. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley): Won the Lewis in his last race, he'll be facing Creative Cause, Liason and others in the SA Derby.

9. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy): The last time a horse came out of Sunland to win the Derby, it was the second biggest upset of all time in the race. The Sunland Derby winner is my dark horse and it will be interesting if a hot pace sets it up for him again.

10. Optimizer (English Channel): Sure his pedigree says turf, but he gave Secret Circle fits in the Rebel. I would not be suprised if he can turn the tables should Gemologist or Bodemeister faulter.

11. Bodemeister (Empire Maker): Poor Juddmonte, their former sire has the Oaks favorite in Grace Hall and possibly one of the AR Derby favorites in him. He gave Creative Cause a dogfight in the San Felipe.

12. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy): He's new to this list, but his trainer and jockey are no strangers to the spotlight. Pat Byrne trained both Countass Diana and Favorite Trick to 2yo Championships, the latter was the first 2yo since Secretariat to win Horse of the Year. Calvin "Bo-Rail/Boo" Borel has won the Derby 3 times (Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver), and of course was the regular rider for Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Take Charge Indy went gate to wire to win Saturday's FL Derby. Now the question is what will Pat's wife Jill who works for Churchill does (each year she does videos for both the Derby and Oaks websites, but my guess is they will have to hire someone to do Derby to avoid conflict of interest).

13. Midnight Transfer (Hard Spun): Two turn debut was good. However, he will be getting a new jockey for the SA Derby. Although he's not that bad himself (Mike Smith).

14. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen): Yes he got upset hugely by Hero of Honor, but he was grinding out and almost caught the winner. However, considering the LA Derby winner's record is lousy in the KY Derby, maybe it's a good thing he lost. Also he threw a shoe and was lame after the race. Not sure if that's because he threw the shoe, or he gave so much to grind out for a win that didn't happen. Either way, hopefully he's okay.

15. Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones): Almost got it done in the Sunland Derby. While he's best runs have come in New Mexico, he did finish fourth behind #8 in the Lewis. He is now the horse on the bubble, and I heard that he would get 1 more start

Notable absent

Reveron (Songandaprayer): The FL Derby runner up has yet to run outside of Florida.

Hero of Order (Sharp Humor): The shocking upset winner of the LA Derby is the biggest since Rockamundo (with Mr. Upset himself Calvin Borel in the irons) won the Arkansas Derby. He's not TC nominated and will need a ton of help in getting into the Derby because of it.

Howe Great (Hat Trick (JPN)): He's prob. better on turf and sythetic then he is on dirt. With that said, he has a win on dirt, and defeated #4 in his last race. The Bluegrass is coming up very tough.

Don't Sleep on Optimizer

D. Wayne Lukas has won the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont before. In matter of fact he's captured all three races in the same year with 2 different horses (Thunder Gulch and Timber County). However, this could be his best chance at returning to glory since last winning the Derby with Charismatic. With a flying second in the Rebel yesterday, Optimizer put himself in position to do well in the AR Derby. His pedigree suggests that he is better on turf, however his female family does their best running on dirt.

He's by English Channel, the 2007 BC Turf winner and Eclipse Turf Male champion. EC (who was trained by a former Lukas asst. Todd Pletcher), had the tendency to fight with his jockeys and the heart to squeeze into tight places. Just watch his Joe Hirsch win.



His dam Indy Pick was 8th in her lone stakes try, the 2001 Gazelle Handicap behind Exogenous. It also turned out to be her final race. She has some royal stock though behind her. Her dam Fantastic Find was a G1 winner herself (winning the Hempstead which is now named the Ogden Phipps) and is the dam to G1 winner Finder's Fee (who sadly passed away from colic) and G1 winning steeplechaser Tax Ruling. Fantastic Find herself is a 1/2 to BC Sprint winner Dancing Spree, and Oh What a Dance (the dam to Heavenly Prize (a champion in her own right, and the granddam to Persistencey who handed Rachel Alexandra her final loss) and Dancinginmydreams (dam to Dancing Forever)).

Optimizer has only won 1 race. However, he has also finished second twice in stakes races (once on turf and in the Rebel). He also has improved his finish the more times he's run over a particular track (finished 6th in the Smarty Jones in January). Then there is the downside, in that he will now more then likely be run into the ground and might not be the same horse that he is currently in the future.

However, for now, I think he is an under the radar horse. I would not be suprised if he wins the AR Derby and does well in Kentucky. We'll see what happens.