Kentucky Oaks and Undercard preview

All the hard work has payed off, we are just about 24 hours away from the Kentucky Oaks and 72 hours away from the KY Derby! Today and tomorrow's posts will be about the Oaks card and the Derby card. I'm only going to be previewing the stakes races which will be running each day with pedigree notes on the Grade 1 races only (just to save a little time). Lets take a look at tomorrow Oaks day card.

Grade 2 La Troienne S. 4yo+ f/m 1 1/16 $300,000
PP	Name of Horse	Jockey	Age/Sex/Weight	Trainer
1	Imposing Grace	Gomez	4/F/118	Catalano
2	Authenticity	Velazquez	6/M/118	Pletcher
3	More Chocolate	Rosario	4/F/120	Sadler
4	Believe You Can	Napravnik	4/F/120	Jones
5	On Fire Baby	Johnson	4/F/120	Hartlage
6	Class Included	Lanerie	5/M/118	Romans
7	Draw It	Santana Jr.	5/M/118	Dodgen

It looks like last year's Oaks winner has finally found her stride again with winning her last two races. Authenticity ran second to her stablemate in the Rampart in her last, Imposing Grace ran just behind Believe You Can in New Orleans in both the Tiffany Lass and New Orleans Ladies. More Chocolate was second to BYC's stablemate in the Santa Margarita. On Fire Baby won the Apple Blossom. Where as there is a reason why Class Included and Draw It are longshots. Going with Imposing Grace to turn the tables on BYC here, Authenticity for second and Believe You Can for third.

Edgewood S. 3yof 1 1/16 (turf) $150,000
PP	Name of Horse	Jockey	Age/Sex/Weight	Trainer
1	Street of Gold	Bridgemohan	3/F/118	McGee
2	Broken Spell	Mena	3/F/118	Lukas
3	Kitten's Dumplings	Rosario	3/F/118	Maker
4	Judy In Disguise (GB)	Smith	3/F/118	Callaghan
5	Birdlover (GB)	Krigger	3/F/118	O'Neill
6	Private Ensign	Lanerie	3/F/118	Romans
7	Emotional Kitten	Trujillo	3/F/118	Ward
8	Praia	Garcia	3/F/118	McPeek
9	Tokyo Time	Castellano	3/F/118	McGaughey
10	Wave Theory	Leparoux	3/F/118	Brown
11	Adriani	Rocco Jr.	3/F/118	Fawkes

A couple of these fillies have run against fillies who are running in the Eight Belles and Oaks later on in the card. Wave Theory is the horse to beat, but Tokyo Time is my pick for this race off her runner up finish in the Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream earlier this year. Birdlover for second (my sister would love her name :P) and Judy in Disguise for third.

Grade 3 Eight Belles S. 3yof 7f $150,000
PP	Name of Horse	Jockey	Age/Sex/Weight	Trainer
1	Chortle	Torres	3/F/118	Williamson
2	Fusaichiswonderful	Castellano	3/F/118	Pletcher
3	Blueeyesintherein	Court	3/F/118	Simms
4	Sitting At the Bar	Bridgmohan	3/F/120	Brinkman
5	Renee's Titan	Gutierrez	3/F/123	O'Neill
6	Neith	Lebron	3/F/118	Lukas
7	Spring Venture	Albarado	3/F/118	Casse
8	Gold Medal Dancer	Lanerie	3/F/118	Von Hemel
9	So Many Ways	Gomez	3/F/118	Amoss
10	Irish Lute	Hernandez Jr.	3/F/118	Stewart
11	Dancinginthecircle	Napravnik	3/F/118	Jones
12	Touch Magic	Graham	3/F/118	Devereux Jr.
13	Guadalupe High	Mena	3/F/120	Werner
14	Calistoga	Rosario	3/F/118	Mott

So Many Ways didn't return as a 3yo, the way she ended her 2yo season. However, returning to the distance she won the Spinaway at will help. Fusaichiiswonderful is a G1 winner in PR, and won her first stakes in the US in her last race. Renee's Titan upset Beholder in the 2yo champ's first race of the year, but it turned out to be a moot point. I'm going with Blueeyesintherein for the win. She won the Debutante here last summer and won the Instant Racing in her last start.

Grade 2 Alysheba S. 4yo+ 1 1/16 $300,000
PP	Name of Horse	Jockey	Age/Sex/Weight	Trainer
1	Patrioticandproud	Rosario	4/C/118	Casse
2	Laugh Track	Mena	4/C/118	Casse
3	Right to Vote	Santana Jr.	4/G/118	Moquett
4	Hymn Book	Gomez	7/G/118	McGaughey
5	Richard's Kid	Krigger	8/H/118	O'Neill
6	Take Charge Indy	Napravnik	4/C/118	Byrne
7	Macho Macho	Nakatani	4/C/118	Asmussen
8	Bourbon Courage	Castellano	4/C/118	Gorder
9	Cyber Secret	Albarado	4/C/120	Whiting

Although this race lost a little bit of it's luster when BC Classic winner Fort Larned decided to skip this race, this is prob the best field possible (dispite no Wise Dan, defending champ Successful Dan and Game on Dude, possibly the three best Older Male's in the country). Cyber Secret is the hot horse winning his owner's track's biggest race for Older Males, the Oaklawn Handicap. Both Bourbon Courage and Take Charge Indy are colts who are always there at the end. I think time has finally caught up to Richard's Kid, and the same can be said about Hymn Book whose lone win since last year's Donn was in a Listed Stakes against 3 other horses. I'm going with Bourbon Courage for this race with Take Charge Indy in second.

Grade 2 American Turf S. 3yo 1 1/16 (Turf) $200,000
PP	Name of Horse	Jockey	Age/Sex/Weight	Trainer
1	Anyriderill Do	Mena	3/C/118	Werner
2	Bashaar	Johnson	3/C/118	Peitz
3	Channel Isle	Rocco Jr.	3/C/118	Lukas
4	Noble Tune	Castellano	3/C/120	Brown
5	War Dancer	Garcia	3/C/118	McPeek
6	Positively	Napravnik	3/C/118	Byrne
7	I'll Call	Prado	3/C/118	Motion
8	Tenforthemoney	Lanerie	3/C/118	Romans
9	Admiral Kitten	Smith	3/C/120	Maker
10	Fire Guard	Alvarado	3/C/118	Mott
11	Joelito	Rosario	3/C/118	Sadler
12	Redwood Kitten	Trujillo	3/G/118	Ward
13	Prado Cat	Stevens	3/C/118	Romans

Although he's only run once since his runner up finish in last year's BC Juvenile Turf, this is Noble Tune's race to lose. Postively could start a monster weekend for his dam, as his ½ brother has one of the favorites for the Derby in Orb. Admiral Kitten beat Texas Bling in a stakes race last year at Retama, but was 11^th in his other stakes race. Channel Isle returns to turf for the first time since his maiden win. War Dancer won his last two including beating Positively in an allowance at Keeneland, and makes his stakes debut here. I'm going with Nobel Tune for the win, Admiral Kitten for second and Positively for third.

Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 3 yo Fillies 1 1/8th $1,000,000
PP	Name of Horse	Jockey	Age/Sex/Weight	Trainer
1	Silsita	Stevens	3/F/121	Pletcher
2	Midnight Lucky	Bejarano	3/F/121	Baffert
3	Beholder	Gomez	3/F/121	Mandella
4	Unlimited Budget	Castellano	3/F/121	Pletcher
5	Seaneen Girl	Napravnik	3/F/121	Flint
6	Princess of Sylmar	Smith	3/F/121	Pletcher
7	Pure Fun	Leparoux	3/F/121	McPeek
8	Dreaming of Julia	Velazquez	3/F/121	Pletcher
9	Rose to Gold	Borel	3/F/121	Santoro
10	Flashy Gray	Alvarado	3/F/121	Mott
11	Close Hatches	Rosario	3/F/121	Mott

David Grening DRF reported yesterday that Flashy Gray is out of the race due to a bruised foot.

Like I've done the past for the Breeders' Cup, I will be doing pros and cons for each horse.

Silsita (Macho Uno)

Pros: Won her prep, the Bourbonette in her last start.

Cons: Winless on dirt in a race that was a 1/16^th shorter then the Oaks distance.

Midnight Lucky (Midnight Lute)

Pros: Undefeated in two starts, will be Baffert's only horse in either of the two big races over the weekend.

Cons: Unraced at 2, has yet to face the likes of Beholder, Dreaming of Julia ect. Lack of racing experience catch up to her?

Beholder (Henny Hughes)

Pros: 2yo Champion, won final prep, has already picked up 2 G1 wins this year.

Cons: Pedigree could be an issue, if it does become one it would not be good news for the two horses who are by her ½ brother Into Mischief who are Derby bound.

Unlimited Budget (Street Sense)

Pros: Undefeated, won the hottest prep for the Oaks in the FG Oaks, sire won the Derby in 2007.

Cons: only 4 starts under her belt, but not sure if the lack of experience will hurt her too much.

Seaneen Girl (Spring at Last)

Pros: 3^rd in the FG Oaks, won the Golden Rod last Fall.

Cons: Only horse from the Golden Rod to run in this year's Oaks, so suspect who she beat.

Princess of Sylmar (Majestic Warrior)

Pros: 2^nd in the Gazelle in her last, won 2 stakes before that.

Cons: Faces much tougher here then she did in NY.

Pure Fun (Pure Prize)

Pros: G1 winner, winner over the surface.

Cons: Not improved from 2 to 3, 7^th against the boys in last (but that was over a poly surface).

Dreaming of Julia (A.P Indy)

Pros: Sire has 2 Oaks winners, an eye popping 21 ½ length winner in her last race the Gulfstream Oaks.

Cons: Last time on the big stage, could only manage a 3^rd, the Gulfstream Oaks has been a hit or miss race when it comes to the KY Oaks. Would not be surprised if she ends up track.

Rose to Gold (Friends Lake)

Pros: Won her final prep, the Fantasy which has produced 2 of the most popular Oaks winners since 2009 in Rachel Alexandra and Blind Luck, plus 08 Derby runner up Eight Belles.

Cons: Lone G1 start was a 12^th place finish, but that was on Poly.

Close Hatches (First Defence)

Pros: Undefeated, won at the distance, beat a horse in the field already.

Cons: Like Midnight Lucky, unraced at 2, 3 races under her belt, will that effect her?

I will admit that I really haven't been focusing on the Oaks this year as I've been looking forward to a few fillies who ended up not heading towards this race. Still, you have Beholder and Julia from last year's BC, Close Hatches from Juddmonte (and we all know how good Juddmonte fillies can be in the US), Todd has 4 horses, Bob has a horse and you have a Calder filly. The Oaks on paper is a much better race then the Derby IMO. Of course there is always a question can it live up to those expectations. If Julia wins this race, don't expect it to be to her winning margin from last time. As for my pick in the race? Well I've narrowed it down to five: Julia, Budget, Beholder, Close and Rose. I don't like Midnight Lucky in this race at all. I'm going with Rose to Gold, her jockey has a big chance to sweep both races like he did in 2009 with Rachel (Oaks) and MTB (Derby). Unlimited Budget for second and Beholder or Dreaming of Julia for third.