In what could be the most wide open HOY in quite awhile (at least since I've been following horse racing), it looks like the field has been narrowed down to about 7. I'll talk about their accomplishments and what I think they need to happen in the BC in order for them to be Horse of the Year.
Acclamation (Unusual Heat x Winning in Style)
Accompilishments: Wins- Eddie Read (G1), Charles Wittingham (G1), Pacific Classic (G1), Jim Murray (G2), Clement L. Hirch Turf (G2)
Profile: With the exception of his first two starts of the year, this Cal Bred has been nothing, but money. He's already beaten the top Cal based Older Males and has not only a great shot at Eclipse for Turf Male, but Older Male too. He's probley better on turf then he is dirt, so if he where to go to the Classic, I really don't think he would have a great chance. Turf is most likely his race of choice.
What Needs to Happen at the BC: Up until a few days ago, he was the one who probley had the toughest assignment with going against Cape Blanco. However, the Irish invader was injured in what turned out to be his final race. He now needs to win and have help in the Classic from a longshot.
Possible Horse of the Year Chances: Honestly slim, no turf horse has been HOY since Kotashaan was in 1993. However, that main track win in the PC will help his chances.
Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie x Playa Maya)
Accomplishments: Wins- Timely Writer, Kelso (G2) On the Board: 2nd Kings Bishop (G1), 3rd Wood Memorial (G1)
Profile: After the year he's had, it's hard to believe that he even has a chance at HOY. Yet, with the 3yo's all beating up on each other and no clear cut standout, here he is. He's going to be going a distance that he's never been before in the Classic, and his brash owner Mike Repole will try to make him the favorite for the race.
What Needs to Happen at the BC: Only a win will help him in the Classic (although I think he's a better candiate for the Dirt Mile, he does not have a G1 win on his resume this year. The good news is he did win over the Churchill surface last year going two turns in the Juvenile. The bad news, it's 3/16 shorter then the mile and quarter Classic. The upside? His sire was third in the Derby (behind his stablemate Real Quiet), has a winner at a 1 1/4 distancce, and his broodmare sire is the defending sire of the Classic (with Blame just holding off Zenyatta). He is currently Timeform's #1 US based horse.
Possible Horse of the Year Chances: Fair. If he wins the Classic, he is 3yo Champion Male and maybe HOY.
Game On Dude (Awesome Again x Wordly Pleasure)
Accomplishments: Won: Santa Anita Handicap (G1), Goodwood (G1) On the Board: 2nd Charles Town Classic (G3), Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), 3rd Lone Star Handicap (G3)
Profile: Really has not done much wrong this year, shocked the world in the Big Cap, was a nose from winning the HGC, sputtered on the poly in the Pacific Classic and won the Goodwood. Like Acclamation, he's beaten all the Califorians (including Acclamation in the CTC), and he has a jockey that fits him like a glove. Chantal Sutherland could make history herself becoming the first female jockey to win the Classic, and only the second to win a BC race (Julie Krone being the first).
What Needs to Happen at the BC: A win and he's HOY and Older Male.
Possible Horse of the Year Chances: Very good, however he might need the lead to get it done. Churchill might be the perfect surface for him to do it.
Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil)
Accomplishments: Wins: Suburban (G2), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), On the Board: 2nd Lone Star Handicap (G3), Whitney (G1) Woodward (G1)
Profile: A horse who might be a little underappriated due to the fact he ran second to both Tizway and Havre de Grace at Saratoga. Won the two big distance races at Belmont.
What Needs to Happen at the BC: See Game On Dude, the problem is his worst loss this year was at Churchill. He has yet to win going two turns (a mile and a quarter at Belmont is a turn and a half basically). His JCGC time was also the slowest since they went back to a mile and a quarter in 1990.
Possible Horse of the Year Chances: Good, I would say not as good as Game On Dude or Tizway since they already have multiple G1 wins under the belt, but he would even it up.
Tizway (Tiznow x Bethany)
Accomplishments: Wins- Whitney (G1), Met Mile (G1) On the Board: 3rd Gulfstream Park Handicap (G3), Charles Town Classic (G3)
Profile: After starting the year slow, he went on to win the stallion making Met Mile and defeated Flat Out in the Whitney. The problem is an illness popped up before the JCGC which he was forced to miss the race. He will need to be on his A game if he has any chance now to win the Classic.
What Needs to Happen at the BC: He needs to win and then have the other contenders finish up track. The reason being is that since he did miss some time, he can get it back if they all finish poorly.
Possible Horse of the Year Chances: Good to Fair. He seems to be an up and down horse who might be better in New York (all, but one of his wins where there) then anywhere else. Also he has yet to win at the Mile and Quarter distance (he was third in the 09 JCGC). The final whammy against him is that no horse over the age of 5 has won the Classic. Tizway is six.
Stay Thirsty (Bernardini x Marozia)
Accomplishments: Wins- Gotham (G3), Jim Dandy (G2), Travers (G1), On the Board: 2nd Belmont (G1), 3rd Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)
Profile: For all of last year, and the spring till the Belmont he was in his stablemate Uncle Mo's shadow. However, after a runner up finish in the Belmont he showed that he might just be a pretty good horse on his own. Mo fans started getting worried after he won both the Jim Dandy and Travers that their favorite horse was passed in his own stable. However, he was brought back down to reality after Mo won the Kelso and Thirsty was third in the JCGC.
What Needs to Happen at the BC: A win will get him HOY and 3yo Champion Male. If he does not win, while he'll be out of HOY contention, he still could get 3yo Honors.
Possible Horse of the Year Chances: Fair, honestly Churchill might not be his best track. He may very well be a Saratoga wonderhorse, even though his first stakes win was at Aqueduct. The one thing that seperates him and Mo is that he has a win at a mile and a quarter.
Havre de Grace (Saint Liam x Easter Bunnette)
Accomplishments: Wins- Azeri (G3), Apple Blossom (G1), Obeah (G3), Woodward (G1), Beldame (G1), On the Board: 2nd Delaware Handicap (G2)
Profile: I never got to see Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta in person during their racing days. I had the honor to see this girl and her arch rival Blind Luck at this year's Delaware Handicap where they did not dissapoint. Only a nose loss to BL is between her and a perfect season. She has already beaten the boys in the Woodward, and she has won in the slop (Beldame). With Older Female honors locked up (Blind Luck's uncharaistic finish sealed the deal) it's time to go after the big prize, Horse of the Year.
What Needs to Happen at the BC: A win in the Classic and she's HOY. The concern is that the last time her owner and trainer ran a female in a major Open race, she was a valient second and sadly was euthanzied due to a break down after the race (Eight Belles, 2008 Kentucky Derby). Also she has yet to win at a mile and a quarter, but gave Blind Luck all she could handle both times at this distance. If it comes up sloppy, she moves up big time.
Possible Horse of the Year Chances: Very good, in matter of fact she is in the drivers seat. Before last year, Female HOY's never happend Back to Back. Rachel, Z and Grace would be the first back to back to back Female HOYs.
It will be interesting on what happens to all of these horses, in the weeks leading up to the race.
Showing posts with label Flat Out. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Flat Out. Show all posts
October 5, 2011
October 2, 2011
BC Classic Top 7
With the US Major preps over, here are the Top 7 Horses to Watch in the Classic.
1. Havre de Grace (Saint Liam)- Beat the boys, won for fun in the Slop in the Beldame. While she has yet to win at 10 furlongs, she has been very close both times she's run at the distance. Will work at Keeneland which has worked before for her owners with Round Pond. I just hope her arch rival Blind Luck who uncharistically not closing in her race yesterday. Was third in the Ladies Classic last year.
2. Tizway (Tiznow)- Dispite missing the Jockey Club Gold Cup, that race really did not show much with a horse for a course winning and a Marathon contender in second. Lets just hope his illness doesn't take his sharpness off.
3. Awesome Gem (Awesome Again)- Yes he was second in his race today, but man was he closing like a train. He actually could go in several races, but I would love to see him go in the Classic. He's had the best finish (3rd in 07) there. Plus with the speed in the race, he could pick up the pieces.
4. Flat Out (Flatter)- Yes he's won at mile and a quarter now, something that 2 of the top 3 have not. However, he was sixth at Churchill earlier this year and both of his graded stakes wins where at Belmont. Plus his mile and a quarter JCGC winning time was the slowest since 1990 when the race went back to a mile and a quarter.
5. To Honor and Serve (Bernardini)- Distance should not be a problem (especially with Deputy Minister on the bottom), trainer also had his sire who was runner up in the Classic in 06. If he finishes in front of Uncle Mo in the Classic, he may very well be 3yo Champion Male. That's how wide open this group is.
6. Game On Dude (Awesome Again)- It's been an up and down season for him. He was able to turn the tables on Awesome Gem, but he is going to be on the lead to have a chance. He could make history with win in the Classic. Not only would it give his trainer his first Classic win, but he could make his jockey the first Female winning jock.
7. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)- stablemate Stay Thirsty was able to get out of the 2yo Champions shadow for the summer, but has taken a step back now that he's back. Not only did he put away Jackson Bend in the stretch, but he did it impressively. He's won at Churchill before. So why is he so low? Well he's a miler, not a mile and a quarter specialist. In matter of fact if he goes with the speed, he prob. backs up towards the end. However, a win in the Classic would give him another championship and very well Horse of the Year honors.
It will be interesting how this race turns out. The reason I did not include So You Think is that frankly Euro's don't have the greatest luck with 2 wins in the Classic. However, that doesn't he doesn't have a chance.
1. Havre de Grace (Saint Liam)- Beat the boys, won for fun in the Slop in the Beldame. While she has yet to win at 10 furlongs, she has been very close both times she's run at the distance. Will work at Keeneland which has worked before for her owners with Round Pond. I just hope her arch rival Blind Luck who uncharistically not closing in her race yesterday. Was third in the Ladies Classic last year.
2. Tizway (Tiznow)- Dispite missing the Jockey Club Gold Cup, that race really did not show much with a horse for a course winning and a Marathon contender in second. Lets just hope his illness doesn't take his sharpness off.
3. Awesome Gem (Awesome Again)- Yes he was second in his race today, but man was he closing like a train. He actually could go in several races, but I would love to see him go in the Classic. He's had the best finish (3rd in 07) there. Plus with the speed in the race, he could pick up the pieces.
4. Flat Out (Flatter)- Yes he's won at mile and a quarter now, something that 2 of the top 3 have not. However, he was sixth at Churchill earlier this year and both of his graded stakes wins where at Belmont. Plus his mile and a quarter JCGC winning time was the slowest since 1990 when the race went back to a mile and a quarter.
5. To Honor and Serve (Bernardini)- Distance should not be a problem (especially with Deputy Minister on the bottom), trainer also had his sire who was runner up in the Classic in 06. If he finishes in front of Uncle Mo in the Classic, he may very well be 3yo Champion Male. That's how wide open this group is.
6. Game On Dude (Awesome Again)- It's been an up and down season for him. He was able to turn the tables on Awesome Gem, but he is going to be on the lead to have a chance. He could make history with win in the Classic. Not only would it give his trainer his first Classic win, but he could make his jockey the first Female winning jock.
7. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)- stablemate Stay Thirsty was able to get out of the 2yo Champions shadow for the summer, but has taken a step back now that he's back. Not only did he put away Jackson Bend in the stretch, but he did it impressively. He's won at Churchill before. So why is he so low? Well he's a miler, not a mile and a quarter specialist. In matter of fact if he goes with the speed, he prob. backs up towards the end. However, a win in the Classic would give him another championship and very well Horse of the Year honors.
It will be interesting how this race turns out. The reason I did not include So You Think is that frankly Euro's don't have the greatest luck with 2 wins in the Classic. However, that doesn't he doesn't have a chance.
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