Final Prep- Why It Matters and Why It Doesn't

With the final preps for the Derby winding down and the Oaks just about finished, I thought it would be a good time to look at the previous Derby and Oaks winners and how they did in their final preps. The following is a spreadsheet I've compiled that goes from last year's races to 1997. Why till then? That felt like a good stopping point.



As you can see by the Derby list, from 2000 till 2009, the evenutal winner of the Derby either finished won or finished no worse then 4th in their final prep (Super Saver being the one who broke that streak after he finished second in the AR Derby before his win in the Derby. The Wood and the SA Derby are tied with the most Derby winners/final prep runners at 3 each. Florida Derby is acutally 3 for 3 because Monarchos won the race before his second in the Wood. So basically the four races you want to run in to produce a possible Derby winner are the AR Derby, Wood, SA Derby and FL Derby, you also want to finish no worse then fourth in your final prep in order to have a chance.

Who does this spell good news for: for one it's good news for Uncle Mo, he fits right into the mold of losing your final prep and then coming back to win the big race (yes I know it wasn't a good race), it's also good news for Toby's Corner who will try to become the first Wood/Derby winner since Fu-Peg. Dialed In also falls in the good news spot off of his win in the Florida Derby and Comma to the Top's gusty second also falls in the catagory, but he's questionable for the race (he wasn't planned to be going to the race, due to distance questions). The AR Derby winner it will also be good news for him and possibly the runner up.

Now for the bad news: Midnight Interlude, yes he won the SA Derby, but no horse has caputred both races since Sunday Silence did both in 1989 (with that being said since then 1 Preakness winner and 2 Belmont winners have also won the SA Derby). To add into the Double Whammy, no horse has won without a start at 2 since Apollo did so in the 1882, guess who falls into that catagory, yep Midnight Interlude. Also for Jaycito who could be heading to the Lexington, yes Charismatic won it, but it really hasn't been a factoring race lately.

On the Oaks sides of things, it's been more spratic with more losses in the final preps then wins. The Ashland and Santa Anita Oaks lead the way with 4 Oaks winners, Fantasyhas the next amount of winners with 3. But no horse has won the Ashland and Oaks since 1999 when Silverbulletday did. It should be noted, that I think had she gone to the Oaks instead of the Derby, Eight Belles would have won so it could very easily Fantasy 4 and Ashland 3. Still what happened happend.

So who does this spell good news for: Joyful Victory, she's coming out of the hottest prep which has produced 2 Oaks winners and a Derby runner up in the past 3 years. It's also good news for Zazu who finished second in the SA Oaks. Great news for Kathmanblu as she is coming out of a 3rd place finish in the Ashland. Wyomia also falls in this catagory off her 2nd place finish.

Bad news: Lilacs and Lace is the big loser here, plus her lone start on dirt was a poor one. Also Summer Soiree.

Will any of this happen? Possibly, it all depends on one thing, luck. Anything can happen in a second, it will be interesting what happens.