November 5, 2010

Breeders' Cup Friday Preview

It's that time! Time to preview today's BC races plus my picks.

5th (4:10)
Breeders' Cup Marathon (G3)1 3/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Atoned Albarado R J Howard Neil J 126 LA 20-1
2 2 Prince Will I Am Castellano J J Nihei Michelle 122 LA 4-1
3 3 Million Seller Rose J Motion H Graham 123 LA 50-1
4 4 Eldaafer Velazquez J R Alvarado Diane 126 LA 12-1
5 5 Romp (ARG) Garcia M Mulhall Kristin 126 LA 50-1
6 6 Gabriel's Hill Leparoux J R Benzel Seth 126 LA 20-1
7 7 Awesome Gem Flores D R Dollase Craig 126 LA 7-2
8 8 Giant Oak Gomez G K Block Chris M 126 LA 4-1
9 9 Bright Horizon (GB) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 L 10-1
10 10 Alcomo (BRZ) Bejarano R Caramori Eduardo 126 LA 6-1
11 11 Precision Break Spencer J P Cole Paul F 126 L 15-1
12 12 A. U. Miner Borel C H Hanna Clark 126 LA 9-2

Even though this is the lone male BC race on Friday, there is a filly in this race in Million Seller. However, I saw her get beat badly in the Del Cap this year. Bright Horizon has never run on dirt before, but the fact that he probley has gone longer is a good sign. Eldaafer is a distance specialist as is A.U. Miner. However, I'm going with Awesome Gem. This is a horse whose run in the Classic and Mile, and I finally think he gets into the winners circle in the BC in this race. Eldaafer for second and Bright Horizon for third.

6th (4:50)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2)1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dos Lunas Court J K Glenney John 122 Blk-On L 30-1
2 2 Tale Untold Moore R L Hannon Richard 122 L 15-1
3 3 Quiet Oasis (IRE) Dettori L Meehan Brian 122 L 8-1
4 4 Kathmanblu Leparoux J R McPeek Kenneth G 122 LA 10-1
5 5 Forest Legend Dominguez R A Oliver Victoria 122 LA 30-1
6 6 Arch Support Prado E S Contessa Gary C 122 L 20-1
7 7 Winter Memories Lezcano J Toner James J 122 LA 2-1
8 8 Wyomia Bejarano R Vella Daniel J 122 L 12-1
9 9 Fancy Point Desormeaux K J Phipps William 122 L 15-1
10 10 New Normal Castellano J J Frostad Mark 122 LA 10-1
11 11 More Than Real Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 10-1
12 12 Flood Plain (GB) Buick W Gosden John H M 122 20-1
13 13 Together (IRE) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 L 5-1
14 14 Allure d'Amour Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 15-1
15 AE Nina Fever Albarado R J Ward Wesley A 122 L 30-1

This race is a bit of an enigma without White Moonstone. With that being said, Winter Memories has been awesome. Since my dark horse Tapitsfly since won last year I'm also going to make another dark horse pick. This one is a bit of a longshot, but my dark horse for this year is Arch Support. She has only won once, but she is coming off a second to Winter Memories in the Miss Grillo as the longest shot on the board.

7th (5:30)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 My Jen Velazquez J R Kenneally Eddie 122 LA 15-1
2 2 Sara Louise Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 124 L 15-1
3 3 Secret Gypsy Albarado R J Werner Ronny 124 LA 12-1
4 4 Informed Decision Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 LA 7-2
5 5 Evening Jewel Espinoza V Cassidy James 122 LA 15-1
6 6 Moontune Missy Garcia Alan Harty Eoin 124 LA 30-1
7 7 Gabby's Golden Gal Garcia M Baffert Bob 124 LA 15-1
8 8 Sweet August Moon Smith M E Koriner Brian 124 LA 30-1
9 9 Switch Rosario J Sadler John W 122 LA 20-1
10 10 Rinterval (IRE) Bejarano R Reed Eric R 124 LA 20-1
11 11 Jessica Is Back Castellano J J Wolfson Martin D 124 L 12-1
12 12 Dubai Majesty Theriot H J II Calhoun W. B 124 LA 6-1
13 13 Rightly So Velasquez C Dutrow Anthony W 124 L 3-1
14 14 Champagne d'Oro Mena M Guillot Eric 122 L 6-1
15 AE Tidal Pool Smith M E Lukas D Wayne 122 LA 30-1
16 AE First Passage Gomez G K Wolfson Martin D 124 L 30-1

Rightly So has been scratched due to lameness Tidal Pool draws in

Keep an eye on this race. Outside of the Ladies Classic, this is the best race of the day. You have the defending champion in Informed Decision, G1 winners iin Gabby's Golden Gal, Rightly So, Champagne d' Oro, Evening Jewel and Jessica is Back. Then there is Rinterval and Switch both who almost handed Zenyatta her first race. Secret Gypsy who won the Endine at Delaware last time out so I hope she does well. However, I'm going with Sara Louise. Yes she's coming off a third in the Gallent Bloom, but she has good success at Churchill. She won the Pocahontas defeating Rachel Alexandra (and until this year was the last to do so), and finished second in the Golden Rod to Rachel the next time out.

8th (6:10)
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Indian Gracey Bejarano R Hollendorfer Jerry 122 LA 15-1 2 2 Theyskens' Theory Dettori L Meehan Brian 122 L 10-1
3 3 R Heat Lightning Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 4-1
4 4 Awesome Feather Sanchez J Gold Stanley I 122 L 6-1
5 5 Harlan's Ruby Leparoux J R McPeek Kenneth G 122 LA 15-1
6 6 Joyful Victory Dominguez R A Dutrow Anthony W 122 L 15-1
7 7 Izshelegal Smith M E Knight Terry 122 Blk-On L 30-1
8 8 A Z Warrior Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 LA 7-2
9 9 Delightful Mary Bridgmohan S X Casse Mark 122 LA 8-1
10 10 Believe in A. P. Gomez G K Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 L 15-1
11 11 Soundwave Albarado R J Werner Ronny 122 LA 20-1
12 12 Tell a Kelly Borel C H Sadler John W 122 LA 9-2
13 13 Jordy Y Rosario J Catalano Wayne M 122 LA 30-1

Indian Gracey has been scratched due to injury.

All eyes will be on the undefeated Awesome Feather who is taking a huge step up in class to take on the big girls. There are three horses to keep an eye on Joyful Victory, A Z Warrior and Theyskens' Theory. These three could be the superstars for next year. Especially Theyskens' Theory who is a half to Stevie Wonderboy. However I gotta go with my heart and go with A Z Warrior. She's a half to one of my favorite fillies J Z Warrior and her brother E Z Warrior was a pretty good horse himself. Theyskens' Theory for second and Joyful Victory for third.

9th (6:50)
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1)1 3/8 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Plumania (GB) Peslier O Fabre Andre 124 8-1
2 2 Eclair de Lune (GER) Alvarado J McAnally Ronald 124 L 15-1
3 3 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J Attfield Roger L 124 LA 8-1
4 4 Keertana Lezcano J Proctor Thomas F 124 LA 30-1
5 5 Shared Account Prado E S Motion H Graham 124 LA 30-1
6 6 Harmonious Rosario J Shirreffs John 121 LA 6-1
7 7 Midday (GB) Queally T P Cecil Henry 124 L 6-5
8 8 Hot Cha Cha Graham J Sims Phillip A 124 LA 30-1
9 9 Hibaayeb (GB) Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 121 LA 8-1
10 10 Red Desire (JPN) Desormeaux K J Matsunaga Mikio 124 LA 8-1
11 11 Forever Together Napravnik A R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 LA 10-1

The big question will be can anyone stop the Midday express. Harmonious and Eclair de Lune lead Team USA, and then there is Red Desire from the Far East. However, I really would not count out Forever Together. This might be the race she needs to her career on a high note,  Miss Keller for second and Midday for third.

10th (7:30)
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1)1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Life At Ten Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 124 LA 7-2
2 2 It's Tea Time Leparoux J R Arnold George R II 122 LA 15-1
3 3 Malibu Prayer Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 124 LA 8-1
4 4 Milwaukee Appeal Bejarano R Fairlie Scott H 124 LA 30-1
5 5 Acting Happy Lezcano J Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 Blk-On L 20-1
6 6 Persistently Garcia Alan McGaughey III C R 124 LA 12-1
7 7 Seeking the Title Borel C H Stewart Dallas 122 LA 30-1
8 8 Unrivaled Belle Desormeaux K J Mott William I 124 LA 8-1
9 9 Acoma Albarado R J Carroll David 124 LA 20-1
10 10 Blind Luck Rosario J Hollendorfer Jerry 122 LA 9-5
11 11 Havre de Grace Rose J Dutrow Anthony W 122 L 4-1

The nightcapper under the lights for Day 1. This is one of two races that I will be doing Pros and Cons with (the other is the Classic). So here we go!

Life at Ten
Pros: Has a win at the distance, has beaten several of these horses in this race, is coming off a win.
Cons: On the rail, might give her stablemate a run for her money too early. Probley better around one turn then two.

It's Tea Time
Pros: Has defeated older
Cons: Better on turf, lone main track win was on a sloppy race course, last time at Churchill dirt did poorly.

Malibu Prayer
Pros: Has a win at the distance and surface, has defeated another horse in this race, is coming off a second place finish.
Cons: Could be pressured too early by her stablemate, her jockey was involved in a spill yesterday but is okay.

Milwaukee Appeal
Pros: Has a win at this distance, is coming off a second place finish
Cons: Hasn't really shown the same form that she did last year, probley better on the synthetic.

Acting Happy
Pros: Has a win at this distance
Cons: Has not run since August

Persistently
Pros: Showed that Personal Ensign win was not a fluke by finishing third next time out.
Cons: Better closers in the race then her.

Seeking the Title
Pros: Well bred
Cons: Everything else

Unriveled Belle
Pros: Has a win over the track, coming off a second place finish
Cons: No wins at this distance, has yet to win since May, has lost to the Pletcher fillies on multiple occasions.

Acoma
Pros: Well bred, has a win over the surface sloppy and fast, has a win at the distance, coming off a win.
Cons: Better on turf.

Blind Luck
Pros: Has a win on this surface at this distance, coming off a second place finish, has won over both fast and sloppy tracks..
Cons: A slow pace could hurt her, traffic problems, and the fact if the Pletcher fillies get their way her arch rival Havre de Grace gets first run at them.

Havre de Grace
Pros: Coming off a win, finally turned the tables on her arch rival.
Cons: Was carrying 10 pounds less then Blind Luck, has lost to her twice, has yet to run at this distance, outside post.

When all is said and done, I think Grace will once again upset Blind Luck. Life at Ten for third just holding off Malibu Prayer.

I'll be back tomorrow with the Saturday preview.

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