Early Oaks Picks

Last week I gave my early Derby picks, this week I'm doing the same thing, but with the Kentucky Oaks. Again I'll only be doing this once a month.

5. Bella Medaglia (Medaglia d' Oro): Just finished second in an allowance on Sunday, but broke her maiden pretty impressively at the Fair Grounds in December. My guess is she is Tiffany Lass or Silverbulletday bound. It helps that she is by the defending Oaks sire.

4. Biofuel (Stormin Feaver): If it wheren't for bumping with Negligee in the Juvenile Fillies, she might have won. The big concern is that she never has been on dirt, however she has beaten one of the best well bred now 3yo's in North America in Cascading (AP Indy out of a Storm Cat mare who is a 1/2 sister to Jazil, Casino Drive and Rags to Riches and a 3/4 sister to Man of Iron) up at Woodbine. Cascading turned around and won a stakes race in her next start. Biofuel's owner has won the Oaks before with Proud Spell, can he do it again with her.

3. She Be Wild (Offlee Wild): It's wierd when you put the Juvenile Fillies Champ at #3. Unlike Vale of York though she was not a flukey winner. Like Biofuel, she has yet to run on dirt, but that will change as she is prepping in Florida. The big reason why she is at #3 is that numbers 1 and 2 had two of the most impressive proformances late last year that I've seen as two year olds in a while.

2. Quiet Temper (Quiet American): It's been 12 years since Real Quiet "The Fish" won the Kentucky Derby, since then Quiet American has been known as the broodmare sire of Bernardini. However this could all change with Quiet Temper. She won the allowance race on Sunday that Bella Medaglia was in and previously won the Delta Princess. The same connections as Swift Temper, look for her to make noise this winter and spring.

1. Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision): Like I said in the Early Derby picks, of all the now 3yo's who started their careers at Calder last year. This could be the best one of them all. Although I don't think she will win the Eclipse Award for 2yo Filly (She Be Wild is your most likely winner), that's okay. The past 3 winners of the Oaks (Rags to Riches, Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra) all did not win the Eclipse at 2, (Dreaming of Anna, Indian Blessing and Stardom Bound where the winners. The 3 Oaks winners did win the Eclipse at 3 however (Rags and Spell already have their awards, Rach's award was a slam dunk by the time Tom Durkin said on the Bravo Oaks coverage "She won by 20!"). She more then likely will be following the Rags to Riches route to the Oaks which she most likely will end up, dispite being #4 on my Derby list.

Look out for: Awesome Maria (Maria's Mon)

Again these are just early picks, the Oaks is a bit more diffacult to have a standout as the fillies IMO don't get as much coverage. The only two horses who really stood out the years that they won where Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra. We'll have to see where these fillies go until the final day in April.