Kentucky Derby Preview

All of the hard work is done... now 20 horses will head to the starting gate on Saturday and race for about 2 minutes for the most prestigious race for 3yo's in the US. Here is the field for this year's Kentucky Derby!

Derby Pick

All the hard work is done. We are less then 24 hours away from Orb handing his title to the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner. With Hoppertunity scratched 19 horses will race for the roses. This year I don't have time to go horse thorough horse for pros and cons. So I'll just give a few of my thoughts on this year's race.

* California Chrome with a perfect break wins, but I don't think he will and might even get involved with the speed duel.

* Danza is intruging, but not sure he wants to go farther then 9 furlongs.

* Medal Count being by sire who is known for horses who can stay is big, but this is his 3 race in 4 weeks.

* Wicked Strong has an outside post, but he has the running style that it suits him.

* If Ride On Curlin gets to the rail fast he could be a serious contender.

* The two NY breds Samraat and Uncle Sigh have big chances.

So who wins? If everything goes perfectly then it's California Chrome. However, my heart and head have been on one horse since the final preps. That horse will break from #20, is he Big Brown? No, but he doesn't have to be in this case. My pick for Derby 140 is Wicked Strong. Samraat for second and Medal Count for third. My dark horse is Dance with Fate.

Good luck to all and may everyone return safe and sound!

Kentucky Derby Draw and Thoughts

The draw was earlier today and here is this year's field for the 140th Kentucky Derby! The race will be run around 6:30 on Saturday which NBC will broadcast live.

1. Vicar's In Trouble- Napravnik
2. Harry's Holiday- Lanerie
3. Uncle Sigh- I Ortiz Jr.
4. Danza- Bravo
5. California Chrome- Espinoza
6. Samraat- J Ortiz
7. We Miss Artie- Castellano
8. General A Rod- Rosario
9. Vinceramos- Rocco Jr.
10. Wildcat Red- Saez
11. Hoppertunity- Smith
12. Dance With Fate- Nakatani
13. Chitu- Garcia
14. Medal Count- Albarado
15. Tapiture- Santana Jr.
16. Intense Holiday- Velazquez
17. Commanding Curve- Bridgemohan
18. Candy Boy- Stevens
19. Ride On Curlin- Borel
20. Wicked Strong- Maragh
AE. Pablo Del Monte

Here are my thoughts:

Poor Rosie, Vicar's is really in trouble with the #1. Looks like we'll go another year without a female winning jockey.

My heart sinks for Jimmy and Rajiv, but I rather the 20 then the 1.

Who the heck is Harry's Holiday?

Samraat with a scratch will break from the gate that 11 years ago produced the only NY bred winner in Funny Cide. (Samraat and Uncle Sigh are both NY breds, but the Wood runner up is the better of the two of them)

While many think California Chrome who is the favorite got the perfect post. Victor may have to deal with some bumping. Even though Joe will be on the inside of him has tons of big race experience, Jose who is on the outside of him is only 20 and by far the biggest race of his life (big brother Irad will be riding Uncle Sigh).

So happy to see Joe Jr. in the race and to ride for Todd! He and Rosie are former Delaware Jocks.

Speaking of Todd, too bad he couldn't convince Mr. Ramsey to scratch We Miss Artie more. He even with the Eclipse winner Javier on has no chance.

Calvin can't be happy with 19, won't get to rail quickly.

Mike is sitting in the catbird's seat.

Geeze 2nd Derby back from retirement and Gary once again gets a bad post.

I'll be back with the videos OR a post on tomorrow (weather hasn't been good here and I use natural lighting to record my videos).

Derby and Undercard preview

It's the biggest day of the year for horse racing in North America. For 20 horses it's about two minutes that stand between them and glory. Who will wear this year's Roses and be able to call themselves Kentucky Derby winner. Lets take at this year's stakes for the Derby card.

Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. 4yo+ 5 furlongs (Turf) $125,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Southern Dude Leparoux 5/G/118 Amoss

2 Havelock Gomez 6/G/120 Miller

3 Regally Ready Nakatani 6/G/118 Asmussen

4 Ghost Is Clear Rosario 5/G/118 Maker

5 Cactus Son Albarado 5/G/118 K. Smith

6 Chamberlain Bridge Mena 9/G/118 Calhoun

7 Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ) Goncalves 5/H/118 Caramori

8 Icon Ike Napravnik 4/C/120 Jones

I would love to see the old man Chamberlain Bridge win this, Icon Ike has a chance as well.

Grade 1 Humana Distaff S. 4yo+F/M 7 furlongs $300,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Jamaican Smoke Leparoux 4/F/118 Kenneally

2 Rumor M. Smith 5/M/120 Mandella

3 Same Cross Napravnik 4/F/118 Jones

4 Emma's Encore Rocco Jr. 4/F/118 Jerkens

5 There Is No Limit Krigger 6/M/118 O'Neill

6 Aubby K Prado 4/F/120 Nicks

7 Burban Lezcano 5/M/118 Kenneally

8 Byrama (GB) Rosario 4/F/118 Callaghan

9 Holiday Soiree Castellano 4/F/118 McCauley

Even without the defending champ Groupie Doll, this is a pretty good race. Emma's Encore surprised people last spring before tailing off, Rumor is looking for her first G1 win, and Aubby K could be a potential superstar. I'm going with Rumor in this race with Aubby K in second.

Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. 4yo+F/M 1 mile (Turf) $250,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Drama Drama Torres 4/F/118 V. Oliver

2 Channel Lady Bejarano 4/F/118 Pletcher

3 Daisy Devine Graham 5/M/120 McKeever

4 Frontside Goncalves 5/M/118 Carmori

5 Hungry Island Castellano 5/M/118 McGaughey

6 Stephanie's Kitten Leparoux 4/F/118 Catalano

7 Karlovy Vary Lanerie 4/F/118 Arnold

8 Marketing Mix Gomez 5/M/123 Proctor

9 Class Included Albarado 5/M/118 Romans

10 Stopshoppingmaria Velazquez 4/F/118 Pletcher

Class Included was cross entered into the La Trioanne. Hungry Island, Stephanie's Kitten, Marketing Mix and Daisy Devine in the same race? Sign me up! Marketing Mix is certinally the #1 turf female in the US, but I would love to see Daisy get it after being run down in her defence of the Jenny Wiley. Marketing Mix for second and Hungry Island for third.

Grade 2 Churchill Downs S. 4yo+ 7 furlongs $400,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Night Party Sellers 5/H/118 Huffman

2 Hierro Velazquez 4/C/118 Pletcher

3 Laurie's Rocket Lebron 4/C/118 Lukas

4 Handsome Mike Gutierrez 4/C/120 O'Neill

5 Unbridled's Note Nakatani 4/C/118 Asmussen

6 Pass The Dice Leparoux 5/H/118 Catalano

7 Politicallycorrect Rosario 4/G/118 Ward

8 Trinniberg Martinez 4/C/123 Parbhoo

9 Delaunay Napravnik 6/G/118 Amoss

Trinniberg ran in the Derby last year, Handsome Mike's jockey returns to the site of his greatest win and Hierro won the Derby Trial. I think Dubai took a lot of the Sprint champ, and if it rains Hierro moves up big time. Don't count out Pass the Dice who beat the Hard Spun colt in his last at Gulfstream.

Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. 4yo+ 1 1/8 (Turf) $500,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Middie Torres 5/G/120 P. Oliver

2 Slim Shadey (GB) Stevens 5/G/122 Callaghan

3 Optimizer Rosario 4/C/120 Lukas

4 Silver Max Albarado 4/C/120 Romans

5 Swift Warrior Castellano 5/H/120 Terranova

6 Jeranimo Bejarano 7/H/122 Pender

7 Bim Bam Santana Jr. 6/H/118 Moquett

8 Wise Dan Lezcano 6/G/124 LoPresti

9 Point of Entry Velazquez 5/H/124 McGaughey

This is the race of the day with Wise Dan, a last minute entry instead of going to the Stephen Foster. Point of Entry beat Animal Kingdom in what was that Derby winner's final US start before he won the World Cup. This will be Wise Dan's toughest race to date in the past 2 years, Point of Entry is no horse to mess with. Don't count out Bim Bam, Jeramino or Optimizer. All three have bit chances to upset the applecart as well. 

Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, 3yo 10F $2,000,000

PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer

1 Black Onyx Bravo 3/C/126 Breen

2 Oxbow Stevens 3/C/126 Lukas

3 Revolutionary Borel 3/C/126 Pletcher

4 Golden Soul Albarado 3/C/126 Stewart

5 Normandy Invasion Castellano 3/C/126 Brown

6 Mylute Napravnik 3/C/126 Amoss

7 Giant Finish Espinoza 3/C/126 Dutrow

8 Goldencents Krigger 3/C/126 O'Neill

9 Overanalyze Bejarano 3/C/126 Pletcher

10 Palace Malice M. Smith 3/C/126 Pletcher

11 Lines Of Battle Moore 3/C/126 O'Brien

12 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo 3/C/126 Plesa

13 Falling Sky Saez 3/C/126 Terranova

14 Verrazano Velazquez 3/C/126 Pletcher

15 Charming Kitten Prado 3/C/126 Pletcher

16 Orb Rosario 3/C/126 McGaughey

17 Will Take Charge Court 3/C/126 Lukas

18 Frac Daddy Lebron 3/C/126 McPeek

19 Java's War Leparoux 3/C/126 McPeek

20 Vyjack Gomez 3/G/126 Rodriguez

So this is this year's field. Can the resurgance of Wayne, plus the unretirement of Gary be 1988 all over again (when they won with Winning Colors)? Will Kevin or Victor make history for their island of St. Croix? Can the newly announced Hall of Famer Calvin get #4? (the same for Gary) Will the two first time trainers Rudy and Chad able to come out of the shadows of their mentors? Will Eddie and Tony be able to add yet another Derby title to their family? (Eddie is the brother in law to John Servis, Tony's younger brother is Rick Dutrow) Will Todd and Johnny V get their second wins, but the first together? Will Kenny's dyanmic duo get the win? Can Rosie become the female jockey to win the Roses? Will Shug finally win after almost getting it done 24 years earlier? All these questions and more will be answered on Saturday. Here is the pros and cons for each horse.

Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten)

SCRATCHED will not be replaced by Fear the Kitten (Kitten’s Joy) who was the AE as the scratch happened after 9:30.

Oxbow (Awesome Again)

Pros: Same female family as last year's Belmont runner up, jockey and trainer have teamed up for 2 Derby wins together. Won the Lecomte, has been close in many preps for the race. Jockey going for 4th Derby win.

Cons: 5th in the AR Derby, jockey is coming out of retirement.

Revolutionary (War Pass)

Pros: Jockey going for 4th Derby win and was just announced as an inductee into the Hall of Fame, same owner trainer jockey combo that won in 2010, can overcome trouble. 

Cons: Is there too much pressure on him? Can he get thorough traffic fast enough. Jockey change.

Golden Soul (Perfect Soul (IRE))

Pros: Second on this surface in November, second in the Lecomte.

Cons: Had to wait to get into the race, 4th in the LA Derby and 6th in the Risen Star before that.

Normandy Invasion (Tapit)

Pros: 2nd in the Wood Memorial, buzz horse, owner was runner up twice since 2007, trainer's first starter.

Cons: Don't think as good as everyone says he says, ran off in a workout on Thursday, will be chasing the ghost of Eight Belles who has the same owner as he does and broke from this gate when she was second in 2008. 

Mylute (Midnight Lute)

Pros: 2nd in the LA Derby, jockey could make history by becoming the first female jockey to win the race.

Cons: Jockey change, 7th in the Risen Star.

Giant Finish (Frost Giant)

Pros: Ummm.... 3rd in the Sprial. Trainer’s brother won the Derby in 08 with Big Brown.

Cons: Waited till the last minute to enter the race, couldn’t win a NYB stakes race. Forced out Fear the Kitten who might not have a better chance then he did, but possibly belonged more then he did. 

Goldencents (Into Mischief)

Pros: Won the SA Derby, defending trainer, jockey trying to make history in becoming the first Black jockey to win in over 100 years, co-owner (although it’s only 5%) is newly announced Basketball Hall of Famer and National Champion Rick Pitino. 

Cons: Will the distance catch up to him, 1st time jockey has ridden in the Derby.

Overanalyze (Dixie Union)

Pros: Won the AR Derby, sire won the Belmont last year.

Cons: Slow race, his owner (although Mike Repole has been quiet during this week).

Palace Malice (Curlin)

Pros: Second in the Blue Grass, sire was third in this race in 2007.

Cons: 7th in the LA Derby.

Lines of Battle (War Front)

Pros: Won his final prep the UAE Derby, same female family as Dynaformer who has sired a Derby winner.

Cons: Never been on dirt, no European based horse has won the race, rookie jockey, Dubai has not been kind to horses when it comes to the Derby. Last US start was uptrack (abeit on grass).

Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron)

Pros: Won the Holy Bull defeating the 2yo champ, 2nd in the FL Derby, trainer’s brother in law won the race in 2004.

Cons: No horse from last year’s BC Juvenile is in the Derby this year, makes you wonder how good Shanghai Bobby is when healthy. 

Falling Sky (Lion Heart)

Pros: Won the Sam Davis, 3rd in the TB Derby.

Cons: Only 1 start outside of Florida, but that was a fourth place finish in the AR Derby.

Verrazano (More Than Ready)

Pros: Undefeated, won the Wood.

Cons: 1/2 brother ran poorly in last year’s race, unraced at 2.

Charming Kitten (Kitten’s Joy)

Pros: 3rd in the Bluegrass

Cons: Never been on dirt

Orb (Malibu Moon)

Pros: Won the FL Derby, hot jockey, great female family who has produced champions who have won at this distance. 

Cons: Morning line favorites haven’t done fantastic in the past, hopefully the post doesn’t hurt him. Jockey change.

Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song)

Pros: Won the Rebel in his last over his stablemate who is also in this race (Oxbow), has a race over the surface.

Cons: Longer layoff then others, 1/2 brother was second to last in last year’s race.

Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy)

Pros: 2nd in the AR Derby, 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club over this surface last year.

Cons: 7th in the FL Derby, 6th in the Holy Bull in two other starts at 3. Although he was injured in one of those races.

Java’s War (War Pass)

Pros: Won the Bluegrass after a poor start, 2nd in the TB Derby.

Cons: 0 for 2 at Churchill, but one of those starts was on turf. 

Vyjack (Into Mischief)

Pros: Won the Gotham and Jerome, 3rd in the Wood.

Cons: 20 post, first starter for trainer, many question marks onto weather he can get the distance.

This year’s Derby is really a coin toss, if this was a nine furlong race then most of these horses would have big chances. The ten furlongs though adds in some question marks. Even though Black Oynx had no chance, his scratch does change a few things. For one, Oxbow will not move over, so there is less chance for him to run into the rail. Also it means for the first time in several years, there won’t be 20 horses running in the race. The past week or so, I’ve been going back and forth between 4 horses and with the addition of Golden Soul, that went up to six. I have finally decided on four of them. After much consideration my pick for the 2013 Derby is Orb. I just feel he is the right horse for the distance and honestly Shug deserves it after Easy Goer’s duel with Sunday Silence in the 1989 Triple Crown. I also think it will come back to haunt Johnny V that he decided to stay on Verrazano. Revolutionary for second, Goldencents for third and Golden Soul for fourth. 

Hopefully everyone returns safe and sound!

Derby Power Rankings: Week 2

Hey everyone! The Oaks Rankings will be taking a week off as next week is the first G1 for fillies on the year. However, from watching the two major preps, I was impressed by. So expect a very different Oaks top 5 next week. Next week, the Derby rankings will be taking a break, while the girls take center stage.  For now, here is the Derby Top 7!

1. Orb (Malibu Moon), McGaughey: Overcame what is normally a speed biased track to win the Fountain of Youth. His female family is the same as Coronado's Quest and maybe more importantly Ruffian. Shug has never won the Derby, is this his year?

2. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron), Plesa: The FL Derby is going to be an awesome race, but if we get similar fractions going longer will this guy be able to handle it?

3. Revolutionary (War Pass), Pletcher: Is he the most hyped member of Team Todd? No, but right now he's the only one with a stakes win at three. Honestly for me, that's right now more important. Don't worry, he'll start to drop as final preps start to get under way in a few weeks. 

4. Flashback (Tapit), Baffert: I really hope mo then five horses show up for the SA Derby, because if they don't then the California horses are going to have a hard time this year I think.

5. Super Ninety Nine (Pulpit), Baffert: Ran away and hid on a sloppy track in Southwest at Oaklawn. Bob swept the big three races last year with Secret Circle and Bodemiester. One down, Rebel next?

6. I've Struck a Nerve (Yankee Gentleman), Desormeaux: Hero of Order 2.0, except better. 4th in the Lacomte, he shocked everyone with a big win in the Risen Star. Even before the race though, his record was better then last year's LA Derby winner. However, here he is leading the points standings. It does bring up something fishy about the LA trail though, if the Fair Grounds wasn't CDI track then it wouldn't be counted in the points. Well that's what I think anyway that is. He has to prove that he's no fluke in the LA Derby. Still, I hope that James Graham stays aboard instead of his trainer's younger brother who is in the Hall of Fame. 

7. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid), Baffert: In theory, this could be Baffert's best shot. 2nd in Risen Star yesterday, and 2nd previously behind #5 who is his stablemate. Full brother to Chartiable Man who was a member of the 2009 three year old crop.

Honorable Mention

Oxbow (Awesome Again): tough loss in Risen Star, hopefully he can rebound in the LA Derby. But like I said under #6, Louisiana trail the past two years have taken a hit.

Verrazano (More Than Ready): still has zero points, will be making stakes debut soon though. 

 

Derby and Oaks Power Rankings Week 1

  So here we go! The first Power Rankings for the 2013 Derby season are upon us. This weeks lists will be five horses each with honorable mentions (there will be two HM's per week, expanding to four in March). In March, the Derby list will go to eight and the Oaks list to seven. Finally in April, both lists will expand to 10.  Also there are no trainers listed for this week, but that will also change next week. These lists may seem to be a little out there, but honestly this is just how I feel. Next weeks should be better. Without further adieu, here are this weeks lists.

1. Princess of Sylmar (Majestic Warrior): Although New York winters have not been very strong for either boys or girls lately, she could change it all. Her owner did say to the DRF that her main goal for the year is the Alabama and she might not go in the Oaks. However with Kauai Kate and Excutivepriviledge having distance limitations, and Beholder possibly following in that same the Oaks trail is wide open. Her trainer has a big chance to sweep the Oaks and Derby, but only if she goes.

2. Pure Fun (Pure Prize): There are two reasons why she is not my #1, the first is I haven't had the time to see her races (which will change after I put up her post) and the second is I have no clue where she is heading. What I do know is that she has a win at Churchill which is big and she defeated Excutivepriviledge in the Hollywood Starlet. 

3. Sister Ginger (Student Council): Handed Rose to Gold a loss in yesterday's Martha Washington. As strong as the Oaklawn preps have been for the boys, they might be even stronger for the girls despite the Fantasy getting a downgrade in grading for 2013. 2008-2010 the winners of that race has won the Oaks, Preakness, finished second in the Derby, Woodward, Haskell, Alabama and 2 Three Year Old filly championships (Eight Belles, Rachel Alexandra and Blind Luck). Her trainer knows the Oaklawn preps well, so I assume that's where she will remain.

4. Fiftyshadesofhay (Pulpit): Winner of the Santa Ysabel in her last. Connections no strangers to the big dance. Her sire has one of the hottest sires around in Tapit, plus her dam is by one of the most popular Derby winners of the 90's. Granted her race was lacking, but the next race should have better quality company.

Honorable Mention

Flashy Gray (Flashy Bull): Formally owned by breeder of Rachel Alexandra, she won today for her new connections West Point. No stakes experience yet, but this new format might put her at an advantage then a disadvantage. 

Dawn's Charm (Hard Spun): Even though she finished third in the Santa Ynez, she almost held off Beholder. From a personal standpoint, I'm hoping that she can suprise people and do well on the trail.

1. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron): Broke the track record when defeating Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull. The FL Derby could be a barn burner. Will be interesting how much he progresses.

2. Revolutionary (War Pass): It wasn't how he won the Withers, it was the way he did it. In theory he ran possibly the best prep race imaginable. The biggest question is, can he keep up the pressure. His trainer has been loaded before and not done well, I'm hoping this is not the case again. 

3. Flashback (Tapit): His full sister Zazu was the runner up in the 2011 Oaks. One of the biggest problems with Tapit foals though is that they have a problem staying sound. The Robert Lewis which he won in his last however produced last year's Derby champ. Will be interesting where he goes. 

4. Violence (Medagalia d' Oro): Name aside, this horse hasn't done anything wrong in his three starts. My biggest concern is that his sire's best foals have been fillies. This colt might be the one to change it all.

5. Oxbow (Awesome Again): Even though the Louisiana route has been ice cold lately, the resurgence of his trainer is a big help. Winner of the Lacomte, he hails from the female family of last years Belmont runner up (Paynter's dam and his dam are full sisters). We know that horse has just as much heart off the track as he does on it.

Honorable Mention

Verrazano (More Than Ready): Last year Bodemeister almost became the first horse to win the Derby without racing at 2 since Apollo. Guess who didn't race at two, this guy! While he is 2 for 2 in his career, I just hope he doesn't sour on the Derby trail.

Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song): I tried everything in my best interest to avoid putting him on this list due to UBS not being the soundest in the world. However, he's been running at the right track and hopefully is heading in the right direction.

2013 Derby and Oaks Power Rankings Introduction

  The calandar has turned from January to February, that can mean only one thing. It's time for the start of the 2013 Derby and Oaks Power Rankings! That's right with the Derby trail just about to start the major portion of preps, I thought it would be a good time to get this post up and ready to go. So this is how the Furlong Drive Power Rankings will go for this year. Starting next Sunday and every week until the Sunday before the fields are drawn for the Derby, there will be a list of the top seven horses of who I think have chances to win the Roses. For the Oaks, the list also be out on Sunday in the same post.

Like with the Breeders' Cup rankings that where posted in the Fall, sires and trainers will be included along with a description. I'm very excited to put these lists out, weather you agree or disagree with them it does not matter. Here's to a good prep season and may all the horses return safe, as well as sound.

Hello There Point System

For years, people have been complaining that horses who have enough graded stakes earnings, but have done poorly in prep races have been allowed to enter the Derby. Well Churchill has decided to change that with throwing out the system they have been using since the 1980's and implementing a point system instead. The Oaks will have a simlar system as well.

The point of this is to put more emphasis on races a mile or over then sprints which many of the 2yo graded stakes are. There are people angry that the G1 BC Juvenile now will be worth as much as the Smarty Jones a listed race at Oaklawn. But it's not as bad as the Royal Lodge at Newmarket which is a great race I may add being a points race while the IL Derby which hasn't had Derby success lately, but has more say into the Derby then an overseas race does isn't. From what I'm understanding, unrestricted stakes will be used as a tiebreaker. So in a way, GSE will still be a factor, just not as much.

What people are also complaining about is that Filly only races will only count for the Oaks, but if they face open company then the points will count for both races. Some may say it's not fair to those who are thinking Derby without going the most adventurous rote. On the other hand though the three Derby winners who are female (Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors) had previously faced males in races before their race at Churchill. The two recent fillies who would have been left out if points where implemented when they ran are 2008 runner up Eight Belles, Three Ring, Excellent Meeting, and Devil May Care (Serena's Song had won the Spiral and very likely had locked herself into the field as her Filly only points would have counted for the Derby along with the Oaks). I think they want fillies to prove themselves that they can handle open company before going to the Derby. If not, then they have the Oaks to fall back onto. Also, the AE list will still be in effect for both races.

The biggest question is this. Will the trainers like this. As of right now, the response has been mainly negative. 

As for me and how I feel about it? It certainly has it's flaws, but I really like that all the point races are a mile or more. Looking at this year's field, according DRF Trinniberg (who did all of his prep work sprinting) would have been the AE and My Adonis (a router) who was the AE would be in the field. Also Bodemeister, Dullahan and I'll Have Another would be 3 of the Top 4 (only Gemologist who ended up track crashed their party). This will limit the amount of horses like Trinniberg into the race. Sure you'll see horses who don't belong, but it's the Derby. Happens almost every year.


This will take some time getting used to, and hopefully for 2014 there will be some tweeks to get things more satisfying to trainers, owners and fans content. 

Derby Dam Outlook

Last week I looked at the sire's of the Derby, however they can't do it alone. Today I look at the mother's of the Derby contenders. I've included the two horses who are prob. going to be the AE's for this year's Derby as well.

Dam (Sire)	Son (Sire)	Comments About Dam
Stormy Sunday (Sir Cat)	Hansen (Tapit)	Won 3 of 4 races in her career. The lone loss was a 3rd at Mountaineer. Full brother to listed horse has won 2 races in his career.
Tempo (Gone West)	Union Rags (Dixie Union)	Won 2 of 3 starts in her career at 3 different race tracks. Her lone loss was a runner up finish behind Quiet Dance who would go onto to be the dam to Saint Liam. Other then the listed horse, her highest earner is Miss Pauline who earned $207,867 in her career.
Untouched Talent (Storm Cat)	Bodemeister (Empire Maker)	Won 2 of 4 races, running only at the age of 2. However, all 4 of those races where in stakes races. She won the G3 Sorrento Stakes and finished second in both the G1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes and the G1 Alicibiades. In the latter, she finished in front of future G1 winner Cotton Blossom. Listed horse is the only horse to run to this date.
Tiz Maie's Day (Tiznow)	Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen)	Unraced. Her dam Sweet Roberta was the runner up in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She is a 1/2 sister multiple stakes runner up Sweet Breanna.
Munnaya (Nijinsky)	Alpha (Bernardini)	Epsom Oaks Trial was her only win in her career. She was also 3rd in the Pretty Polly. However both of those races where on turf. Other then horse listed, highest earner is UAE stakes placed Numaany. Female family of KY Oaks winner Seaside Attraction.
Bella Dorato (Goldminers Gold)	Trinniberg (Teuflesberg)	Only 1 for 17 in her career, but she did finish third in the Finger Lakes Juvenile Fillies Stakes. Lone other horse to race Troponin, has won 3 races primarly in claiming company.
Mining My Own (Smart Strike)	Dullahan (Even the Score)	Unraced in her career. Her dam Aspenelle was the runner up in the Canadian Oaks. The mare in question is the dam to Canadian 2yo Champion and KY Derby winner Mine That Bird.
Arch's Gal Edith (Arch)	I'll Have Another (Flower Alley)	1 win in 1 start. Other then foal listed highest earning foal is Those Wer the Days.
Take Charge Lady (Dehere)	Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy)	Multiple G1 winner including winning the Spinster twice. Won 11 races out of 22 starts. Was runner up in the Kentucky Oaks when she was 3. One of two millionaire broodmares in the race.
Pocho's Dream Girl (Fortunate Prospect)	Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen)	7 for 32 in her career, including multiple stakes wins. Finished third in the G1 Beldame. Other then listed horse, highest earner is Yankee Doodle Girl.
Follow Your Bliss (Thunder Gulch)	Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy)	0 for 12, with only 2 top three finishes. Her dam Follow the Money won the G2 Dahlia.
Enchanted Rock (Giant's Causeway)	El Padrino (Pulpit)	0 for 1 in her career. Her dam won Chic Shirine won the G1 Ashland. She is a 1/2 sister to G2 winners Waldoboro and Tara Roma.
Miner's Blessing (Forty Niner)	Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat)	Unraced. Her dam Bless You was 3rd in the Geisha Handicap. She is the 1/2 sister to G1 placed Conquistadoress.
Dreamy Maiden (Meadowlake)	Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy)	Multiple stakes winner. She won 5 of 13 starts in her career. Best foal other then foal listed is mulitple stakes winner Tres Dream.
Dream of Summer (Siberian Summer)	Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway)	Won 10 of 20 starts including the G1 Apple Blossom Handicap. The second of the two Derby broodmares who where millionaires in their racing days.
Crystal Shard (Mr. Prospector)	Gemologist (Tiznow)	Unraced. Her dam Sulemeif won the G3 Suwannee River. She's a 1/2 sister to Japanese stakes placed Kyowa Alysheba and full sister to KY Oaks runner up Withallprobability. Other then the foal listed, she also has stakes winner Clear Destiny and stakes placed Perfect Cut.
Galloping Gal (Victory Gallop)	Liaison (Indian Charlie)	4 wins in 19 starts. A mulitple stakes winner and finishing 4th in the G2 Golden Rod (ahead of future G1 winner Stellar Jayne and behind stakes winner Lotta Kim (dam of Rachel Alexandra)) and 2nd in the G2 Alcibidies.
Spirited Away (Awesome Again)	Prospective (Malibu Moon)	4 wins in 8 starts. She won the Truly Bound Handicap in her final start for her lone stakes win.
Dixie Talking (Dixieland Band)	Done Talking (Broken Vow)	3 out of 4 in her career. She won the G3 Cicada defeating future G1 winner Acey Deucey.
Indy Pick (A.P Indy)	Optimizer (English Channel)	2 wins out of 6 starts. Her dam Fantastic Find won the G1 Hempstead. She is a half sister to multiple G1 winner Finder's Fee and multiple G1 winning steeplechaser Tax Ruling.
Silent Justice (Elusive Quality)	My Adonis (Pleasently Perfect)	Unraced. 1/2 sister to G2 placed Lakota Brave.

I feel like I might be missing a dam, if I am please leave a comment and I can add her quickly. The Oaks chart will be posted tomorrow. 

Derby Sire Outlook

Hard to believe that we are only two weeks away from the Kentucky Derby! Today's post is all about the sires of the horses who will be going into this year's mile and quarter race. I've put together a little table so you can see side by side by side whose sires did well at longer distances and whose sire's didn't. I've also included the sire's of horses who at this time of writing have not made a decision on weather they are going or not and/or are not in the race quite yet. Sire's listed are not in alphabetical order, they are in the order that I had thought of them to put in this list. (Note: the horses listed are the top 22 horses in Graded Stakes Earnings)

Sire (The Sire's Sire)	Horses by This Sire	Comments About the Sire
Tapit (Pulpit)	Hansen	Won the Laurel Futurity and Wood Memorial. Finished 9th in the 2004 Derby in the mud and then 9th in the PA Derby. As a sire, he has 2 Two Year Old Champions, Stardom Bound and his rep in this year's Derby. Another one of his successful foals is G1 placed Trappe Shot.
Scat Daddy (Johannesburg)	Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best	The Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby winner. Finished a dismal 18th in the 2007 Derby and never ran again. As a sire, he's off to amazing start. His two reps are tied for the most reps for a sire in this year's Derby, the former is a G2 winner, the latter is a G3 winner.
Dixie Union (Dixieland Band)	Union Rags	Norfolk and Haskell winner. Didn't participate in the Triple Crown, but finished 4th in the 2000 Travers. Among his top horses are G1 winners Dixie Chatter, Hot Dixie Chick, and G2 winner Justwhistledixie.
A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew)	Take Charge Indy	One of two Belmont winning sires possible for the Derby this year. Won the 1992 Belmont and Breeders' Cup Classic to become Horse of the Year. His sire Seattle Slew is the only undefeated winner of the Triple Crown. Indy is the sire of many great horses such as Preakness winner Bernardini (who will also be repasented in this year's Derby by Alpha), and Belmont winner Rags to Riches (the first filly to win the Belmont in over 100 years). He is the broodmare sire of Derby runner up Bluegrass Cat (who will be repped by Sabercat).
Flower Alley (Distorted Humor)	I'll Have Another	While he could only finish 9th in the 2004 Kentucky Derby, Flower Alley won the Travers that summer at the same distance as the Derby. He would go onto finish 2nd behind Saint Liam. It wasn't enough to get 3yo Champion Male honors though as Afleet Alex had done enough to win the Eclipse. His rep in this year's Derby is one of 2 G1 winners he has, the other is Ashland winner Lilacs and Lace.
Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat)	Sabercat	Nashua and Remsen winner at 2. 2006 Derby Travers and Belmont runner up also won the Haskell at 3. His top horse is G2 winner Kathmanblu. He hails from the same female family as 2010 Derby winner Super Saver.
Empire Maker (Unbridled)	Bodemeister	The second of the two Belmont winners being repped in this year's race. The 2003 winner, also finished 2nd in that year's Derby, Sham and Jim Dandy while picking up wins in the FL Derby and Wood Memorial. His best foals include 2009 Derby runner up Pioneerof the Nile, G1 winner Stardom Bound, Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner Royal Delta and Oaks favorite Grace Hall.
Indian Charlie (In Excess (IRE))	Liaison	1998 SA Derby winner, he finished third behind his stablemate Real Quiet in the Derby. Among his top foals include 2yo Champion Filly and Champion Female Sprinter Indian Blessing, 2yo Champion Uncle Mo and Ms. Cornstalk the dam of Canadian champions Biofuel and Tu Endie Wei are among his foals.
Teuflesberg (Johannesburg)	Trinniberg	Southwest and Woody Stephens winner, he was 17th in the 2007 Derby. The horse in question is his best foal.
Tiznow (Cee's Tizzy)	Gemologist	The only 2 time Breeders' Cup Classic winner (2000 and 2001), he did not participate in the Triple Crown. He has Eclipse champion Forklore, G1 placed Bear Now, G2 winner American Lion, G1 winner Col. John and Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed.
Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy)	Prospective	Raced twice in his career winning once. His top horses include Eclipse winner Declan's Moon, G1 winners Life at Ten, Ask the Moon, Malibu Prayer and Devil May Care.
Even the Score (Unbridled's Song)	Dullahan	Did alot of his running on the turf, but all of his stakes wins where on dirt including the 2004 Californian, and then ended his career with a 3rd place finish in the Hollywood Gold Cup at the Derby distance the same year. His best foal to date is G1 winner Take the Points.
Proud Citizen (Gone West)	Mark Valeski, Went the Day Well	Lexington winner, he finished second in the 2002 Derby and then followed that up with a 3rd place finish in the Preakness. His best foal to date is the Eclipse champion Proud Spell, he also has Oaks contender Belive You Can.
Bernardini (A.P. Indy)	Alpha	2006 Eclipse 3yo Male. Preakness, Jim Dandy, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He was the runner up in Breeders' Cup Classic the same year as he won those races. His best foal to date is G1 winner Stay Thirsty.
English Channel (Smart Strike)	Optimizer	All of his running was done on the turf where he won the BC Turf and was Eclipse Turf Male Champion. His full brother however Sedgefield, was 5th in the 2007 Derby. The horse listed the best foal for his sire so far.
Pulpit (A.P. Indy)	El Padrino	Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass winner. He was fourth in the 1997 Derby. He is the sire of G1 winners Pyro, BC Dirt Mile winner Corinthian, Ice Box, Stroll, and Purge among others.
Broken Vow (Unbridled)	Done Talking	Iselin and Sir Barton winner. He was third in the 2001 Gulfstream Park Handicap. His best foals to date are G1 winners Sassy Image, Cotton Blossom and Unbridled Belle.
Lucky Pulpit (Pulpit)	Rousing Sermon	The 2004 Santa Catalina runner up, he won the Smile at Arlington (not the one at Calder). The horse listed is his best foal to date.
Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat)	Creative Cause	Although he ran all, but one of his races on turf, he was the runner up of the 2000 English Two Thousand Guineas and BCC. His foals have had success on both turf and dirt. Among them, G1 winners Argorn, Giant Oak, My Typhoon (IRE), Shamadal, Heatseeker (IRE) and Swift Temper.

Edit: I had Went the Day well down as being by Hat Trick (JPN) (Sunday Silence), he's actually by Proud Citizen. Liason was orginally listed being by Lawyer Ron (Langfur) he is actually by Indian Charlie. Sedgefield was 5th not 4th in the 2007 Derby. Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones) has been removed from Derby consideration. Hero of Order (Sharp Humor) will be added shortly.

I will be doing an Oaks one that will be up tomorrow.

1/29 Derby Top Five

It's been over a month since I introducted the Top 5, and there are some changes to the list. In mid-Feb, the list will expand to Top 7 and by March will be at the Top 15. The goal is by the begining of the final preps to really have the Top 20 set up and ready to go. For now, here is the first Top Five list of the new year.

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway)- Dad was so close of winning the Classic as 3yo 12 years ago this year. Mom was an amazing horse, and with some buzzy horses coming out of California, I'm actually liking his chances more.

2. Algorimthms (Bernardini)- Defeated the 2yo Champ Hansen today in the Holy Bull. Here's the thing, he might not be Todd Pletcher's strongest bullet.

3. Dullahan (Even the Score)- There's just something that I love about him that I didn't about his brother. I'm very excited to see what he does down in FL.

4. Gemologist (Tiznow)- This horse could be a freak. Why is he ranked so low? I'm too scared that I will curse him if I put him higher then 4th.

5. Union Rags (Dixie Union)- Alot of people are rooting for this guy, six years after his trainers most famous and beloved charge won the Run for the Roses (today is the fifth aniversary of Barbaro's death).

Dropped off: Hansen (Tapit), Liasion (Indian Charlie)

Others Considered: Sabrecat, Out of Bounds, Midnight Transfer

It's a shame that the Shackleford's little bro, Stephanoatsee is injured and off the TC trail (would have loved to see what Oatsee did with a distance stallion). The Oaks Top 5 will be released later this week.

Finally, San Pail was named HOY last night and a very happy 6th birthday to Rachel Alexandra! (She and baby is currently at Rood and Riddle, but could be going home soon).

Oaks and Derby Very Early Top Five

Hard to believe, but we are only a little bit over four months away from the Oaks and Derby. It will be interesting who will be the top dog going into the preps which begin in mid-Jan/Early Feb. However, here are my top 5 for now for both the Derby and the Oaks.

Derby


1. Hansen (Tapit): A huge win over Union Rags in the Juvenile, he came out of Turfway of all places to become the best thing since well... Hanson's "Umm Bop". My one concern is that Tapit's tend to get a very fast start, but tend to tail off quickly.

2. Union Rags (Dixie Union): He got a bit of a crummy ride in the Juvenile, but showed that he could go a mile and a sixteenth. Not 100% sold that a mile and a quarter is his game, but we'll see what happens.

3. Liaison (Indian Charlie): Unlike the other IC colt that everyone was raving about last year and this year... this one has a bit of clout to him. His dam and granddam are both by Belmont winners (Victory Gallop and AP Indy), so the stamina is there. Of course he gets his speed from dad. That combo might be just enough to the finish line first. But then there is the soundness issue that Charlie has passed along, lets hope he stays that way.

4. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway): A horse who maybe a wiseguy choice come Derby day. He'll have a tough time this winter going against Liaison and others such as Hierro. Right now, he's the horse who I would love to see to win the Derby the most.

5. Dullahan (Even the Score): Unlike his brother who shall remain nameless, Dullahan has run well in the BC finishing a closing fourth. While he won't be a Champion in Canada like big brother was as a 2yo, he could still have a chance on something that he missed out on, an Eclipse Championship.

Others Considered: Gemologist, Sabercat, Souper Speedy, O'Prado Again, Hierro


Oaks


1. Grace Hall (Empire Maker): Could she help get her dad home if she wins the Oaks next year? Prob. not, but with Weemissfrankie injured and My Miss Aurelia getting some time off as well she vaults into the #1 spot. Runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies, she won the Spinaway then went back to her hometrack to win the Blue Hen before her race at Churchill. The 3yo Females in Florida could be the deepest in years, will be fun to see what happens.

2. Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Prob. a Woodbine Oaks contender more then Kentucky, but I'm putting her here anyway. Her 1/2 sister is this year's Oaks/Queen's Plate winner Inglorious, who herself is by Hennesy so really a mile and eighth shouldn't be a big problem with her since her dam has not had a problem throwing distance horses with sprinter/miler stallions.

3. Now I Know (Pure Prize): Coming from OK, might work to her advantange. However, that could also be an disadvantage because she will now have to face horses of better quality. She'll have to pick up her game if she wants to hang with the big girls.

4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun): Sure she was fifth in her US debut, but she's Group placed in England and she's remaining in the US to run as a 3yo. She's out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the stamina is there. She'll give Grace Hall some fits if they face off against each other.

5. On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken): We know she loves Churchill (2 for 2), and the Golden Rod has been a pretty good indicator on how well a horse does as a 3yo. The question is if she can get that extra sixteenth. I'm not sure on it, but alot of people didn't think Plum Pretty could either.

Others considered: Inny Minnie, Yvete Sangalo (MEX), Killer Graces, Disposablepleasure

Oaks and Derby Predictions

So this is it, Derby weekend is finally upon us. Lets take a look at both fields for the Oaks and Derby.

Race 11 - 5:45 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5 / Oaks-Derby Double Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pick 3
STAKES Kentucky Oaks (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000. For Purposes Of This Preference The Graded Status Of Each Race Shall Be The Graded Status Assigned To The Race By The International Cataloguing Standards Committee In Part I Of The International Cataloguing Standards As Published By The Jockey Club Information Systems, Incorporated Each Year. One And One Eighth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Joyful Victory (ON) 3/F LA M E Smith 121 J L Jones 5/2
2 2 Lilacs and Lace (KY) 3/F LA J Castellano 121 J P Terranova, II 12/1
3 3 Summer Soiree (KY) 3/F LA G Saez 121 H G Motion 5/1
4 4 Kathmanblu (KY) 3/F LA J R Leparoux 121 K G McPeek 4/1
5 5 Suave Voir Faire (KY) 3/F LA M Mena 121 D M Smithwick, Jr. 50/1
6 6 Zazu (KY) 3/F LA J Rosario 121 J W Sadler 4/1
7 7 Her Smile (VA) 3/F LA G K Gomez 121 T A Pletcher 20/1
8 8 Bouquet Booth (KY) 3/F LA J R Velazquez 121 S Margolis 20/1
9 9 Daisy Devine (KY) 3/F LA J Graham 121 A McKeever 20/1
10 10 Street Storm (KY) 3/F LA S Bridgmohan 121 S Margolis 50/1
11 11 Holy Heavens (FL) 3/F LA K J Desormeaux 121 B Chatters 50/1
12 12 Plum Pretty (PA) 3/F LA M Garcia 121 B Baffert 5/1
13 13 St. John's River (KY) 3/F L R Napravnik 121 A Leggio, Jr. 30/1

A lot of people think this is a better race then the Derby this year. And I agree, still with the defection of R Heat Lightning who was injured, this is a wide open race. I'm going to throw out Suave Vior Faire, Street Storm and Her Smile right away, since none of them really deserve or should be in this race. I think the one reason why Holy Heavens has high odds is because she didn't run well against Joyful Victory. Zazu is the one who scares me the most, as she's probley the best closer in the race but she's coming off a layoff. Plum Pretty had the most impressive win, but she has yet to do well against good horses. Lilacs and Lace and Bouquet Booth are the two in here by Flower Alley, the good news is history is on his side. The past 3 Oaks winners have been out of their sire's first crops. LL and BB are both out of Alley's first crop. However, BB was orignally supposed to be ridden by Robby Alberado, but gets a jockey change because he has recieved a broken nose in a spill. Katmanblu all of a sudden is not the horse she once was. Joyful Victory is the horse to beat off of her 2 visually impressive wins at Oaklawn. When it's said and done, I think the winner will be coming out of one of the hottest preps the past couple of years. No I'm not talking about the Fantasy. I'm talking about the Fair Grounds Oaks. I think Daisy Devine will be your 2011 Kentucky Oaks winner. Why do I think this way? She's coming in under the radar, her connections are not well known and since 2004 4 FG Oaks winners (Ashado, Summerly, Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra) have gone onto win the Kentucky Oaks. Now granted all four had one more prep underneath them (Ashado, Summerly and Proud Spell all lost in the Ashland, while Rachel won the Fantasy), but that shouldn't effect her too much. Plus her name is Daisy and that's the name of my late dog. Second I have St. John's River who was closing like a train on Daisy in the FG Oaks. Her trainer also trained the late great Happy Ticket, and her owner/breeder owns the farm where Lotta Kim (Rachel's mom) is boarded. Which means if she wins, she will become the 2nd Oaks winner in 3 years to be born at Heaven Trees. The one thing I worry is that niether of her sire's top two foals (her full sister Panty Raid and my one of my all time favorite horses Prom Shoes) where fond of Churchill. Still I hope she does well. Third either Joyful Victory or Zazu.

Churchill Downs - May 7, 2011

Race 11 - 6:24 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
STAKES Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I)

Purse $2,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds With An Entry Fee Of $25,000 Each And A Starting Fee Of $25,000 Each. One And One Fourth Miles.
1 1 Archarcharch (KY) 3/C L J K Court 126 W H Fires 10/1
2 2 Brilliant Speed (FL) 3/C LA J Rosario 126 T Albertrani 30/1
3 3 Twice the Appeal (KY) 3/C LA C H Borel 126 J Bonde 20/1
4 4 Stay Thirsty (KY) 3/C LA R A Dominguez 126 T A Pletcher 20/1
5 5 Decisive Moment (FL) 3/C LA K D Clark 126 J D Arias 30/1
6 6 Comma to the Top (FL) 3/G LA P A Valenzuela 126 P Miller 30/1
7 7 Pants On Fire (KY) 3/C LA R Napravnik 126 K J Breen 20/1
8 8 Dialed In (KY) 3/C LA J R Leparoux 126 N P Zito 4/1
9 9 Derby Kitten (KY) 3/C LA J Castellano 126 M J Maker 30/1
10 10 Twinspired (KY) 3/C LA M E Smith 126 M J Maker 30/1
11 11 Master of Hounds (KY) 3/C LA G K Gomez 126 A P O'Brien 30/1
12 12 Santiva (KY) 3/C LA S Bridgmohan 126 E Kenneally 30/1
13 13 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C LA R Maragh 126 K Ritvo 12/1
14 14 Shackleford (KY) 3/C LA J L Castanon 126 D L Romans 12/1
15 15 Midnight Interlude (KY) 3/C LA V Espinoza 126 B Baffert 10/1
16 16 Animal Kingdom (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 H G Motion 30/1
17 17 Soldat (KY) 3/C LA A Garcia 126 K P McLaughlin 12/1
18 18 Uncle Mo (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 T A Pletcher 9/2
19 19 Nehro (KY) 3/C LA C S Nakatani 126 S M Asmussen 6/1
20 20 Watch Me Go (FL) 3/C L R Bejarano 126 K O'Connell 50/1

Juvy jinx! Juvy jinx! As you have already heard by now, Uncle Mo will not be going in this year's Derby. I do have some feelings on this (including why was he entered in the first place when he was not 100%), but I'll sound thoses if he doesn't run again. Because of that Animal Kingdom gets the big boost by getting Johnny V to replace Robby. Somewhat funny that Graham defeated Mo and Johnny in the Wood with Toby's Corner. The winner of the draw was Dialed In, the eight is the perfect postion for his type of running style. He could have first jump on everyone. The one who got the worst, Nehro and Watch Me Go. What not my boy Archarcharch? Pshh the 1 post is nothing. To tell you the truth, I almost cried when I saw he got the 1 hole. While many people make it out to be a death sentence, but he could be the one horse that might be okay with the one hole. Would I like him off the rail? Sure, you never want to be on the rail in the Derby, but it happens. Twice the Appeal has Calvin, but I don't even think he can win 3 in a row. Master of Hounds is a bit of a emigma. He's never run on dirt (niether has Animal Kingdom), he hasn't won a stakes race, he finished behind Soldat in the BCJT last year, and he has a jock that got bounced off the 3yo Champ last year. With that being said I was impressed by the UAE Derby runner up, the winner is going to the Epsom Oaks, so it will be interesting how he flatters her. There are three horses who have female trainers or rider. Of those three, I think Mucho Macho Man has the best chance. He would also become the youngest Derby winner and his trainer Kathy Rivto would become the first female trainer to win the race. Watch Me Go has the worst chance of the three no offence to his trainer Kathleen O'Connell. The third one is Pants on Fire, I somewhat want him to win since his jockey is a local, Rosie Napravnik would become the first woman rider to win the race. However, Louisiana hasn't been the best spot lately for horses (although Nehro did come back to finish second in the AR Derby).

So who is my pick? Post aside, I'm sticking with my heart and head. My pick for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is Archarcharch. I believe he will give Jon Court a Derby win after being taken off Line of David last year and I would love to see Jinks Fires come out of his Hall of Fame brother Earlie's shadow. Mucho Macho Man for second and Pants on Fire for third.

So that's it! I'll be back next week for reaction.