Is it LA's Year?

It's been 16 years since Grindstone swept the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Since then 14 horses have won the LA Derby, but not the KY Derby (the 2006 edition was canceled do to Hurricane Katrina). Lets take a look at the horses who have won and where they have finished in the Triple Crown races since Grindstone.

1997- Crypto Star (Cryptoclearnence): 5th in the KY Derby, 4th in the Belmont
1998- Comic Strip (Red Ransom): did not participate
1999- Kimberlite Pipe (Take Me Out): 6th in the KY Derby, 8th in the Preakness
2000- Mighty (Lord at War (ARG)): did not participate
2001- Fifty Stars (Quiet American): 9th in the KY Derby
2002- Repent (Louis Quatorze): did not participate
2003- Peace Rules (Jules): 3rd in the KY Derby, 4th in the Preakness
2004- Wimbledon (Wild Rush): did not participate (was scratched from the Derby after entries where taken)
2005- High Limit (Maria's Mon): 20th in the KY Derby, 5th in the Preakness
2006: No Race due to Hurricane Katrina
2007- Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch): 6th in the KY Derby, 5th in the Preakness
2008- Pyro (Pulpit): 8th in the KY Derby
2009- Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy): 18th in the KY Derby, 10th in the Preakness
2010- Mission Impazible (Unbridled's Song): 9th in the KY Derby
2011- Pants On Fire (Jump Start): 9th in the KY Derby

Even though the LA Derby winner hasn't gone on to win the KY Derby, there is a bit of a loophole in that the race has produced a winner of the Run for the Roses since 1996. Finishing third behind Peace Rules in 2003 was Funny Cide (who eventually was award 2nd place prize money in the LA Derby after the DQ of Kafwain), turned the tables on him in the KY Derby and then beat him in the Preakness. The record after the Triple Crown is not good either. While Repent finished second in the Travers, and Mission Impazible has done well in his G1 adventures post TC (with several runner up finishes), only two have gone onto win G1 races after the TC. Those two are Peace Rules and Pyro, both winning their G1's in NY.

And from those group, Repent has had the best stud career (Pyro's first foals where born last year, and most will be running in Japan where he is standing, Friesan Fire just entered stud this year, Circuler Quey's first foals are 2yo's this year).

Could El Padrino or Mark Valeski who went 1-2 in the final prep the Risen Star turn the luck of the Louisiana Derby around? It's too early to tell, they most likely will be the two favorites in the race should they both go. It should be very fun race.