Derby Power Rankings: Week 2

Hey everyone! The Oaks Rankings will be taking a week off as next week is the first G1 for fillies on the year. However, from watching the two major preps, I was impressed by. So expect a very different Oaks top 5 next week. Next week, the Derby rankings will be taking a break, while the girls take center stage.  For now, here is the Derby Top 7!

1. Orb (Malibu Moon), McGaughey: Overcame what is normally a speed biased track to win the Fountain of Youth. His female family is the same as Coronado's Quest and maybe more importantly Ruffian. Shug has never won the Derby, is this his year?

2. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron), Plesa: The FL Derby is going to be an awesome race, but if we get similar fractions going longer will this guy be able to handle it?

3. Revolutionary (War Pass), Pletcher: Is he the most hyped member of Team Todd? No, but right now he's the only one with a stakes win at three. Honestly for me, that's right now more important. Don't worry, he'll start to drop as final preps start to get under way in a few weeks. 

4. Flashback (Tapit), Baffert: I really hope mo then five horses show up for the SA Derby, because if they don't then the California horses are going to have a hard time this year I think.

5. Super Ninety Nine (Pulpit), Baffert: Ran away and hid on a sloppy track in Southwest at Oaklawn. Bob swept the big three races last year with Secret Circle and Bodemiester. One down, Rebel next?

6. I've Struck a Nerve (Yankee Gentleman), Desormeaux: Hero of Order 2.0, except better. 4th in the Lacomte, he shocked everyone with a big win in the Risen Star. Even before the race though, his record was better then last year's LA Derby winner. However, here he is leading the points standings. It does bring up something fishy about the LA trail though, if the Fair Grounds wasn't CDI track then it wouldn't be counted in the points. Well that's what I think anyway that is. He has to prove that he's no fluke in the LA Derby. Still, I hope that James Graham stays aboard instead of his trainer's younger brother who is in the Hall of Fame. 

7. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid), Baffert: In theory, this could be Baffert's best shot. 2nd in Risen Star yesterday, and 2nd previously behind #5 who is his stablemate. Full brother to Chartiable Man who was a member of the 2009 three year old crop.

Honorable Mention

Oxbow (Awesome Again): tough loss in Risen Star, hopefully he can rebound in the LA Derby. But like I said under #6, Louisiana trail the past two years have taken a hit.

Verrazano (More Than Ready): still has zero points, will be making stakes debut soon though. 

 

Derby and Oaks Power Rankings Week 1

  So here we go! The first Power Rankings for the 2013 Derby season are upon us. This weeks lists will be five horses each with honorable mentions (there will be two HM's per week, expanding to four in March). In March, the Derby list will go to eight and the Oaks list to seven. Finally in April, both lists will expand to 10.  Also there are no trainers listed for this week, but that will also change next week. These lists may seem to be a little out there, but honestly this is just how I feel. Next weeks should be better. Without further adieu, here are this weeks lists.

1. Princess of Sylmar (Majestic Warrior): Although New York winters have not been very strong for either boys or girls lately, she could change it all. Her owner did say to the DRF that her main goal for the year is the Alabama and she might not go in the Oaks. However with Kauai Kate and Excutivepriviledge having distance limitations, and Beholder possibly following in that same the Oaks trail is wide open. Her trainer has a big chance to sweep the Oaks and Derby, but only if she goes.

2. Pure Fun (Pure Prize): There are two reasons why she is not my #1, the first is I haven't had the time to see her races (which will change after I put up her post) and the second is I have no clue where she is heading. What I do know is that she has a win at Churchill which is big and she defeated Excutivepriviledge in the Hollywood Starlet. 

3. Sister Ginger (Student Council): Handed Rose to Gold a loss in yesterday's Martha Washington. As strong as the Oaklawn preps have been for the boys, they might be even stronger for the girls despite the Fantasy getting a downgrade in grading for 2013. 2008-2010 the winners of that race has won the Oaks, Preakness, finished second in the Derby, Woodward, Haskell, Alabama and 2 Three Year Old filly championships (Eight Belles, Rachel Alexandra and Blind Luck). Her trainer knows the Oaklawn preps well, so I assume that's where she will remain.

4. Fiftyshadesofhay (Pulpit): Winner of the Santa Ysabel in her last. Connections no strangers to the big dance. Her sire has one of the hottest sires around in Tapit, plus her dam is by one of the most popular Derby winners of the 90's. Granted her race was lacking, but the next race should have better quality company.

Honorable Mention

Flashy Gray (Flashy Bull): Formally owned by breeder of Rachel Alexandra, she won today for her new connections West Point. No stakes experience yet, but this new format might put her at an advantage then a disadvantage. 

Dawn's Charm (Hard Spun): Even though she finished third in the Santa Ynez, she almost held off Beholder. From a personal standpoint, I'm hoping that she can suprise people and do well on the trail.

1. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron): Broke the track record when defeating Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull. The FL Derby could be a barn burner. Will be interesting how much he progresses.

2. Revolutionary (War Pass): It wasn't how he won the Withers, it was the way he did it. In theory he ran possibly the best prep race imaginable. The biggest question is, can he keep up the pressure. His trainer has been loaded before and not done well, I'm hoping this is not the case again. 

3. Flashback (Tapit): His full sister Zazu was the runner up in the 2011 Oaks. One of the biggest problems with Tapit foals though is that they have a problem staying sound. The Robert Lewis which he won in his last however produced last year's Derby champ. Will be interesting where he goes. 

4. Violence (Medagalia d' Oro): Name aside, this horse hasn't done anything wrong in his three starts. My biggest concern is that his sire's best foals have been fillies. This colt might be the one to change it all.

5. Oxbow (Awesome Again): Even though the Louisiana route has been ice cold lately, the resurgence of his trainer is a big help. Winner of the Lacomte, he hails from the female family of last years Belmont runner up (Paynter's dam and his dam are full sisters). We know that horse has just as much heart off the track as he does on it.

Honorable Mention

Verrazano (More Than Ready): Last year Bodemeister almost became the first horse to win the Derby without racing at 2 since Apollo. Guess who didn't race at two, this guy! While he is 2 for 2 in his career, I just hope he doesn't sour on the Derby trail.

Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song): I tried everything in my best interest to avoid putting him on this list due to UBS not being the soundest in the world. However, he's been running at the right track and hopefully is heading in the right direction.

2013 Derby and Oaks Power Rankings Introduction

  The calandar has turned from January to February, that can mean only one thing. It's time for the start of the 2013 Derby and Oaks Power Rankings! That's right with the Derby trail just about to start the major portion of preps, I thought it would be a good time to get this post up and ready to go. So this is how the Furlong Drive Power Rankings will go for this year. Starting next Sunday and every week until the Sunday before the fields are drawn for the Derby, there will be a list of the top seven horses of who I think have chances to win the Roses. For the Oaks, the list also be out on Sunday in the same post.

Like with the Breeders' Cup rankings that where posted in the Fall, sires and trainers will be included along with a description. I'm very excited to put these lists out, weather you agree or disagree with them it does not matter. Here's to a good prep season and may all the horses return safe, as well as sound.