It's the biggest day of the year for horse racing in North America. For 20 horses it's about two minutes that stand between them and glory. Who will wear this year's Roses and be able to call themselves Kentucky Derby winner. Lets take at this year's stakes for the Derby card.
Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. 4yo+ 5 furlongs (Turf) $125,000
PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer
1 Southern Dude Leparoux 5/G/118 Amoss
2 Havelock Gomez 6/G/120 Miller
3 Regally Ready Nakatani 6/G/118 Asmussen
4 Ghost Is Clear Rosario 5/G/118 Maker
5 Cactus Son Albarado 5/G/118 K. Smith
6 Chamberlain Bridge Mena 9/G/118 Calhoun
7 Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ) Goncalves 5/H/118 Caramori
8 Icon Ike Napravnik 4/C/120 Jones
I would love to see the old man Chamberlain Bridge win this, Icon Ike has a chance as well.
Grade 1 Humana Distaff S. 4yo+F/M 7 furlongs $300,000
PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer
1 Jamaican Smoke Leparoux 4/F/118 Kenneally
2 Rumor M. Smith 5/M/120 Mandella
3 Same Cross Napravnik 4/F/118 Jones
4 Emma's Encore Rocco Jr. 4/F/118 Jerkens
5 There Is No Limit Krigger 6/M/118 O'Neill
6 Aubby K Prado 4/F/120 Nicks
7 Burban Lezcano 5/M/118 Kenneally
8 Byrama (GB) Rosario 4/F/118 Callaghan
9 Holiday Soiree Castellano 4/F/118 McCauley
Even without the defending champ Groupie Doll, this is a pretty good race. Emma's Encore surprised people last spring before tailing off, Rumor is looking for her first G1 win, and Aubby K could be a potential superstar. I'm going with Rumor in this race with Aubby K in second.
Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. 4yo+F/M 1 mile (Turf) $250,000
PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer
1 Drama Drama Torres 4/F/118 V. Oliver
2 Channel Lady Bejarano 4/F/118 Pletcher
3 Daisy Devine Graham 5/M/120 McKeever
4 Frontside Goncalves 5/M/118 Carmori
5 Hungry Island Castellano 5/M/118 McGaughey
6 Stephanie's Kitten Leparoux 4/F/118 Catalano
7 Karlovy Vary Lanerie 4/F/118 Arnold
8 Marketing Mix Gomez 5/M/123 Proctor
9 Class Included Albarado 5/M/118 Romans
10 Stopshoppingmaria Velazquez 4/F/118 Pletcher
Class Included was cross entered into the La Trioanne. Hungry Island, Stephanie's Kitten, Marketing Mix and Daisy Devine in the same race? Sign me up! Marketing Mix is certinally the #1 turf female in the US, but I would love to see Daisy get it after being run down in her defence of the Jenny Wiley. Marketing Mix for second and Hungry Island for third.
Grade 2 Churchill Downs S. 4yo+ 7 furlongs $400,000
PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer
1 Night Party Sellers 5/H/118 Huffman
2 Hierro Velazquez 4/C/118 Pletcher
3 Laurie's Rocket Lebron 4/C/118 Lukas
4 Handsome Mike Gutierrez 4/C/120 O'Neill
5 Unbridled's Note Nakatani 4/C/118 Asmussen
6 Pass The Dice Leparoux 5/H/118 Catalano
7 Politicallycorrect Rosario 4/G/118 Ward
8 Trinniberg Martinez 4/C/123 Parbhoo
9 Delaunay Napravnik 6/G/118 Amoss
Trinniberg ran in the Derby last year, Handsome Mike's jockey returns to the site of his greatest win and Hierro won the Derby Trial. I think Dubai took a lot of the Sprint champ, and if it rains Hierro moves up big time. Don't count out Pass the Dice who beat the Hard Spun colt in his last at Gulfstream.
Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. 4yo+ 1 1/8 (Turf) $500,000
PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer
1 Middie Torres 5/G/120 P. Oliver
2 Slim Shadey (GB) Stevens 5/G/122 Callaghan
3 Optimizer Rosario 4/C/120 Lukas
4 Silver Max Albarado 4/C/120 Romans
5 Swift Warrior Castellano 5/H/120 Terranova
6 Jeranimo Bejarano 7/H/122 Pender
7 Bim Bam Santana Jr. 6/H/118 Moquett
8 Wise Dan Lezcano 6/G/124 LoPresti
9 Point of Entry Velazquez 5/H/124 McGaughey
This is the race of the day with Wise Dan, a last minute entry instead of going to the Stephen Foster. Point of Entry beat Animal Kingdom in what was that Derby winner's final US start before he won the World Cup. This will be Wise Dan's toughest race to date in the past 2 years, Point of Entry is no horse to mess with. Don't count out Bim Bam, Jeramino or Optimizer. All three have bit chances to upset the applecart as well.
Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, 3yo 10F $2,000,000
PP Name of Horse Jockey Age/Sex/Weight Trainer
2 Oxbow Stevens 3/C/126 Lukas
3 Revolutionary Borel 3/C/126 Pletcher
4 Golden Soul Albarado 3/C/126 Stewart
5 Normandy Invasion Castellano 3/C/126 Brown
6 Mylute Napravnik 3/C/126 Amoss
7 Giant Finish Espinoza 3/C/126 Dutrow
8 Goldencents Krigger 3/C/126 O'Neill
9 Overanalyze Bejarano 3/C/126 Pletcher
10 Palace Malice M. Smith 3/C/126 Pletcher
11 Lines Of Battle Moore 3/C/126 O'Brien
12 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo 3/C/126 Plesa
13 Falling Sky Saez 3/C/126 Terranova
14 Verrazano Velazquez 3/C/126 Pletcher
15 Charming Kitten Prado 3/C/126 Pletcher
16 Orb Rosario 3/C/126 McGaughey
17 Will Take Charge Court 3/C/126 Lukas
18 Frac Daddy Lebron 3/C/126 McPeek
19 Java's War Leparoux 3/C/126 McPeek
20 Vyjack Gomez 3/G/126 Rodriguez
So this is this year's field. Can the resurgance of Wayne, plus the unretirement of Gary be 1988 all over again (when they won with Winning Colors)? Will Kevin or Victor make history for their island of St. Croix? Can the newly announced Hall of Famer Calvin get #4? (the same for Gary) Will the two first time trainers Rudy and Chad able to come out of the shadows of their mentors? Will Eddie and Tony be able to add yet another Derby title to their family? (Eddie is the brother in law to John Servis, Tony's younger brother is Rick Dutrow) Will Todd and Johnny V get their second wins, but the first together? Will Kenny's dyanmic duo get the win? Can Rosie become the female jockey to win the Roses? Will Shug finally win after almost getting it done 24 years earlier? All these questions and more will be answered on Saturday. Here is the pros and cons for each horse.
Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten)
SCRATCHED will not be replaced by Fear the Kitten (Kitten’s Joy) who was the AE as the scratch happened after 9:30.
Oxbow (Awesome Again)
Pros: Same female family as last year's Belmont runner up, jockey and trainer have teamed up for 2 Derby wins together. Won the Lecomte, has been close in many preps for the race. Jockey going for 4th Derby win.
Cons: 5th in the AR Derby, jockey is coming out of retirement.
Revolutionary (War Pass)
Pros: Jockey going for 4th Derby win and was just announced as an inductee into the Hall of Fame, same owner trainer jockey combo that won in 2010, can overcome trouble.
Cons: Is there too much pressure on him? Can he get thorough traffic fast enough. Jockey change.
Golden Soul (Perfect Soul (IRE))
Pros: Second on this surface in November, second in the Lecomte.
Cons: Had to wait to get into the race, 4th in the LA Derby and 6th in the Risen Star before that.
Normandy Invasion (Tapit)
Pros: 2nd in the Wood Memorial, buzz horse, owner was runner up twice since 2007, trainer's first starter.
Cons: Don't think as good as everyone says he says, ran off in a workout on Thursday, will be chasing the ghost of Eight Belles who has the same owner as he does and broke from this gate when she was second in 2008.
Mylute (Midnight Lute)
Pros: 2nd in the LA Derby, jockey could make history by becoming the first female jockey to win the race.
Cons: Jockey change, 7th in the Risen Star.
Giant Finish (Frost Giant)
Pros: Ummm.... 3rd in the Sprial. Trainer’s brother won the Derby in 08 with Big Brown.
Cons: Waited till the last minute to enter the race, couldn’t win a NYB stakes race. Forced out Fear the Kitten who might not have a better chance then he did, but possibly belonged more then he did.
Goldencents (Into Mischief)
Pros: Won the SA Derby, defending trainer, jockey trying to make history in becoming the first Black jockey to win in over 100 years, co-owner (although it’s only 5%) is newly announced Basketball Hall of Famer and National Champion Rick Pitino.
Cons: Will the distance catch up to him, 1st time jockey has ridden in the Derby.
Overanalyze (Dixie Union)
Pros: Won the AR Derby, sire won the Belmont last year.
Cons: Slow race, his owner (although Mike Repole has been quiet during this week).
Palace Malice (Curlin)
Pros: Second in the Blue Grass, sire was third in this race in 2007.
Cons: 7th in the LA Derby.
Lines of Battle (War Front)
Pros: Won his final prep the UAE Derby, same female family as Dynaformer who has sired a Derby winner.
Cons: Never been on dirt, no European based horse has won the race, rookie jockey, Dubai has not been kind to horses when it comes to the Derby. Last US start was uptrack (abeit on grass).
Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron)
Pros: Won the Holy Bull defeating the 2yo champ, 2nd in the FL Derby, trainer’s brother in law won the race in 2004.
Cons: No horse from last year’s BC Juvenile is in the Derby this year, makes you wonder how good Shanghai Bobby is when healthy.
Falling Sky (Lion Heart)
Pros: Won the Sam Davis, 3rd in the TB Derby.
Cons: Only 1 start outside of Florida, but that was a fourth place finish in the AR Derby.
Verrazano (More Than Ready)
Pros: Undefeated, won the Wood.
Cons: 1/2 brother ran poorly in last year’s race, unraced at 2.
Charming Kitten (Kitten’s Joy)
Pros: 3rd in the Bluegrass
Cons: Never been on dirt
Orb (Malibu Moon)
Pros: Won the FL Derby, hot jockey, great female family who has produced champions who have won at this distance.
Cons: Morning line favorites haven’t done fantastic in the past, hopefully the post doesn’t hurt him. Jockey change.
Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song)
Pros: Won the Rebel in his last over his stablemate who is also in this race (Oxbow), has a race over the surface.
Cons: Longer layoff then others, 1/2 brother was second to last in last year’s race.
Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy)
Pros: 2nd in the AR Derby, 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club over this surface last year.
Cons: 7th in the FL Derby, 6th in the Holy Bull in two other starts at 3. Although he was injured in one of those races.
Java’s War (War Pass)
Pros: Won the Bluegrass after a poor start, 2nd in the TB Derby.
Cons: 0 for 2 at Churchill, but one of those starts was on turf.
Vyjack (Into Mischief)
Pros: Won the Gotham and Jerome, 3rd in the Wood.
Cons: 20 post, first starter for trainer, many question marks onto weather he can get the distance.
This year’s Derby is really a coin toss, if this was a nine furlong race then most of these horses would have big chances. The ten furlongs though adds in some question marks. Even though Black Oynx had no chance, his scratch does change a few things. For one, Oxbow will not move over, so there is less chance for him to run into the rail. Also it means for the first time in several years, there won’t be 20 horses running in the race. The past week or so, I’ve been going back and forth between 4 horses and with the addition of Golden Soul, that went up to six. I have finally decided on four of them. After much consideration my pick for the 2013 Derby is Orb. I just feel he is the right horse for the distance and honestly Shug deserves it after Easy Goer’s duel with Sunday Silence in the 1989 Triple Crown. I also think it will come back to haunt Johnny V that he decided to stay on Verrazano. Revolutionary for second, Goldencents for third and Golden Soul for fourth.
Hopefully everyone returns safe and sound!
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