Preakness Picks

Ah the Preakness, the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown. To be honest if the Kentucky Derby is the Oscars, the Preakness is the Golden Globes. Just as famous, but a bit under appreciated. Lets take a look at the field.

Race 12 - Preakness S. (Grade I)

Purse $1,500,000. For Three-Year-Olds, $15,000 To Pass The Entry Box, Starters To Pay $15,000 Additional. 60% of the purse to the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight 126 pounds for Colts and Geldings, 121 pounds for Fillies. A replica of the Woodlawn Vase will be presented to the winning owner to remain his or her personal property. One And Three Sixteenth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Dynamic Impact (KY) 3/C L M Mena 126 M E Casse 12/1
2 2 General a Rod (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 126 M J Maker 15/1
3 3 California Chrome (CA) 3/C L V Espinoza 126 A Sherman 3/5
4 4 Ring Weekend (KY) 3/G L A Garcia 126 H G Motion 20/1
5 5 Bayern (KY) 3/C L R Napravnik 126 B Baffert 10/1
6 6 Ria Antonia (KY) 3/F L C H Borel 121 T M Amoss 30/1
7 7 Kid Cruz (KY) 3/C L J Pimentel 126 L Rice 20/1
8 8 Social Inclusion (KY) 3/C L L Contreras 126 M J Azpurua 5/1
9 9 Pablo Del Monte (FL) 3/C L J Sanchez 126 W A Ward 20/1
10 10 Ride On Curlin (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 126 W G Gowan 10/1

Historically speaking, if you did not run in the Preakness then you had no chance in the race. Since 2003, only 2 horses have won the Preakness without running in the Derby Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. That being said, Social Inclusion is the best of the newcomers. He was third in the Wood and the 1-2 in the Wood finished 4th and 5th in the Derby. He only has 3 starts under his belt (as did Bernardini) and his dad was runner up in the Derby but was up track in the Preakness (won by Rachel). General a Rod makes his second start for his new connections, but I wished that he waited for the Belmont.

If you are a girl power fan, then your trifecta should be Bayern (ridden by Rosie), Kid Cruz (trained by Linda) and Ria Antonia (the filly in the race). However Bayern and Ria don't have a chance in this race. Especially the latter, sure she'll be ridden by Rachel's rider and her come from behind style suits him. However, she was 6th in the KY Oaks and hasn't crossed the wire first since last July. That being said, unlike Rags to Riches and Rachel, she has experience against males (it didn't go well, but the winner of that race Conquest Titan did start his TC trail well before tailing off at the end). 

Then there is California Chrome. There was a tizzy made on Twitter after it was found out that he was coughing, and that he was found to have a small blister in his throat (which apparently he had pre Derby as well). If it he wins, then we worried about nothing. If he loses, then well... questions will be asked. His post is not ideal as the speed is outside of him. However, great horses overcome obstacles like this.

So who wins? Well in my heart I want a Ria/CC/Kid tri. However, that's not who I'm going to go with. After going back and forth between four horses I've decided that my Preakness pick will be Kid Cruz. He's taking a monster step up in class, but he has something that no one else has on this year's Preakness; a win on the track. California Chrome for second, Social Inclusion for third and Ring Weekend for fourth.

Good luck to all and safe travels!

Preakness Preview

  The field is set for this years Preakness! A field of nine are entered, lets take a look at this year's field.

1.ORB Rosario

2.GOLDENCENTS Krigger

3.TITLETOWN FIVE Leparoux

4.DEPARTING Hernandez Jr.

5.MYLUTE Napravnik

6.OXBOW Stevens

7.WILL TAKE CHARGE Smith

8.GOVENOR CHARLIE Garcia

9.ITSMYLUCKYDAY Valezquez

The big winner of this draw IMO is Oxbow and Will Take Charge. Orb is the biggest loser getting the rail, although with his running style, it shouldn't be a huge problem. Of the new shooters, the best of them is Departing. He comes out of the same prep as Mylute, Golden Soul and Revolutionary. Of course all three of them ran very well in the Derby. He won the IL Derby three weeks ago. That being said, history is not on his side with three non Derby starters winning the Preakness since 2000 (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra). Although his jockey won the BCC and his trainer did train the only horse to defeat Zenyatta (Blame). 

Several of the jockeys in this years race have MD connections. Rosie starting her career there, Gary, Mike and Martin all Preakness winners. This is going to be a very interesting race, and honestly any of these horses except for Will Take Charge (I don't think he's as good as everyone thinks he is) and Titletown Five can win. So who wins? I've been going back and forth for my third place finisher, but I think even with the post Orb gets it done. Departing will give his old pasturemate a run for his money, but will come up just short. For third, I'm sticking with my heart and going with Oxbow.

IF Orb loses, then I would like to see Oxbow win with Orb second and Mylute finishing in third.

Preakness Predictions

The big question is, can Animal Kingdom do what he did at Churchill in what is his trainers adopted home state? Lets take a look at this year's Preakness field.

Pimlico - May 21, 2011

Race 12 - 6:18 PM EXACTA, TRIFECTA & 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 12 & 13 ) $1 SUPER HIGH 5 / 2nd HALF OF BLACK-EYED SUSAN / PREAKNESS DOUBLE

STAKES
Preakness S. (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds, $10,000 To Pass The Entry Box, Starters To Pay $10,000 Additional. 60% of the purse to the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight 126 pounds for Colts and Geldings, 121 pounds for Fillies. A replica of the Woodlawn Vase will be presented to the winning owner to remain his or her personal property. First closing January 22, 2011 Second closing March 26, 2011. One And Three Sixteenth Miles.
P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Astrology (KY) 3/C LA M E Smith 126 S M Asmussen 15/1
2 2 Norman Asbjornson (PA) 3/C LA J Pimentel 126 C W Grove 30/1
3 3 King Congie (KY) 3/C LA R Albarado 126 T Albertrani 20/1
4 4 Flashpoint (FL) 3/C L C H Velasquez 126 W A Ward 20/1
5 5 Shackleford (KY) 3/C LA J L Castanon 126 D L Romans 12/1
6 6 Sway Away (KY) 3/C LA G K Gomez 126 J Bonde 15/1
7 7 Midnight Interlude (KY) 3/C LA M Garcia 126 B Baffert 15/1
8 8 Dance City (VA) 3/C LA R A Dominguez 126 T A Pletcher 12/1
9 9 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C LA R Maragh 126 K Ritvo 6/1
10 10 Dialed In (KY) 3/C LA J R Leparoux 126 N P Zito 9/2
11 11 Animal Kingdom (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 H G Motion 2/1
12 12 Isn't He Perfect (KY) 3/C LA E S Prado 126 D Shivmangal 30/1
13 13 Concealed Identity (MD) 3/G LA S Russell 126 E D Gaudet 30/1
14 14 Mr. Commons (KY) 3/C LA V Espinoza 126 J A Shirreffs 20/1

Astrology has a trainer that won the race in 2009 and 2007, as well as a jockey who won the race in 1993. Norman Asbjornson's trainer trained Silmaril who outside of Cigar and recent HOF inductee Safely Kept is the one of the most accomplished MD breds. King Congie's trainer won the race in 2006, his jockey won it the next year. However, he is invoking to memory of an employee of his owners (who named him after himself). Flashpoint will be part of the speed. However, his trainer is known for his two year olds. Shackleford suprised people in the FL Derby and followed it up with a 4th place finish in the Derby. He is one of 2 horse eligible for a bonus. Sway Away just missed the Derby and is one of 4 horses whose sires won at Pimlico. Midnight Interlude gets a key jockey change, last year Lookin at Lucky won this race with the same rider. Dance City was third in the AR Derby and defeated a 1/2 brother to Bluegrass Cat in an allowance race. Mucho Macho Man will be starting from the same spot that my all time favorite horse won his Preakness from in 2003. Dialed In could be in for the biggest payday since Visa offered $5 million for a TC winner. Should he win, his owner will get 5 million dollars for winning the Preakness. Of course Animal Kingdom is the champ and he has a trainer who is based in Maryland. Isn't He Perfect is well... not perfect. His jockey is former local, but he also has had heartache in this race back in 2006. Concealed Identity is the local, he won the Tesio before his run here. And you think Rosie Napravnik and Jinks Fires had a big age diffence. The youngest jockey and oldest trainer in this year's Derby have nothing on CI's jockey and trainer. Much like Sway Away and Norman (who I forgot to mention before in his preview), his dad won this race (SW it was in 2005, CI 2004 and Norman 1998 I think you can figure out who they are). Mr. Commons gets the 2002 Preakness winning jockey and 2005 3rd place trainer, he also is trying to follow in his sire's footsteps (dad defeated AK's dad in the BC Mile).

So who gets it done? History is not on the new shooters side. Since 2000, there have been five TC spoilers in the Preakness, 3 of them (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra) did not race in the Derby (the other two of course where Afleet Alex and Lookin at Lucky). With that being said, I don't buy Animal Kingdom. I think he was a horse who had things go his way in the Derby. No offence to his trainer or jockey, but his main owner irks many people and rubbed me the wrong way. I want a Deputed Testamony, which is why I'm going with Concealed Identity. He would be a popular win, since his trainer Eddie Gaudet has been in Maryland for a long time and it could send his jockey Sheldon Russell into the stradosphere. The thirteen post isn't ideal, but a horse has recently won from that post (see Rachel). Plus fans of possibly the second most popular Preakness winner this century would be extreamly happy since this would be his first G1 winner as a sire (of course I'm talking about Smarty Jones). It's a step up in class for him though, so the likelyhood of this actually happing is sadly slim to none :(. kMucho Macho Man for second and King Congee to suprise people for third.

Oh speaking of Smarty and Rachel, Versus is showing their Preakness highlights along with Alex's famous bump and run today at 3pm EDT just before Black Eyed Susan coverage begins.

It's Preak Time!

Two weeks ago, Super Saver and Calvin Borel ruled Churchill Downs, giving Todd Pletcher his first Derby win. Now it's time for Pimlico and the second leg of the Triple Crown. The Preakness (named after Preakness, the first winner of the Dinner Party Stakes which is now the Dixie Stakes, a race that will also be run tomorrow), is often where championships are made (as I posted on Monday).

Here is this year's field for the 136th Preakness.

12th (6:12)
Preakness S. (G1)
1 3/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Aikenite Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 20-1
2 2 Schoolyard Dreams Coa E M Ryan Derek S 126 LA 15-1
3 3 Pleasant Prince Leparoux J R Ward Wesley A 126 LA 20-1
4 4 Northern Giant Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 30-1
5 5 Yawanna Twist Prado E S Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 30-1
6 6 Jackson Bend Smith M E Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 12-1
7 7 Lookin At Lucky Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 LA 3-1
8 8 Super Saver Borel C H Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 5-2
9 9 Caracortado Atkinson P Machowsky Michael 126 LA 10-1
10 10 Paddy O'Prado Desormeaux K J Romans Dale 126 LA 9-2
11 11 First Dude Dominguez R A Romans Dale 126 LA 20-1
12 12 Dublin Gomez G K Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 10-1

Aikenite is the stablemate of Super Saver, and is coming off a second place finish in the Derby Trial, Schoolyard Dreams finished second just in front of the Derby champ in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pleasant Prince is coming into the race off a third in the Derby Trial, Northern Giant finished second in the Lane's End, and ... Yawanna Twist will have to channel his inner Funny Cide (he's a NY Bred) to have a chance, he's also the closes to a local as his trainer is from Maryland and his jockey started his US career here. Jackson Bend, I still think is a bit overhyped, but he could suprise people. A much better post for Lookin at Lucky, and gets a key jockey change. The champ is here! No jockey has won back to back Preakness' since Pat Day did it three times in a row, and Calvin's record outside of Churchill isn't great, but Super Saver well he's the champ afterall. Caracortado (Scarface is Spanish), is considered to be the best of the new shooters. Paddy O' Prado and his stablemate First Dude have jockeys who know Pimlico very well and Dublin will try to win from the same post that his dad did.

There is not much pace in this race which means if Super Saver gets a loose lead he could wire them. The downside the last time a Maria's Mon colt was going against a Baffert trainee who was very good was Monarchos who ran in the 01 Preakness against Point Given, after defeating the son of Thunder Gulch in the Derby. However Point Given showed that he was a very good horse by turning the tables on Monarchos. That's the one thing that concerns me about this race is that Lucky will turn the tables on Super Saver. Then there is Caracoratdo who ran pretty well in California. I think Paddy sadly is going to bounce in this race. In all this is really not a great race sadly.

My top three are going to be Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and either Caracorado, Aikenite, Dublin or Yawanna Twist for third. It would be the second Preakness win for Calvin Borel, and first for both Todd Pletcher and WinStar as an owner (they of course bred Funny Cide). Now lets just hope that it ends up this way.

The undercard somewhat leaves alot to be desiered. Rainbow View is in action as is Nicanor and Just as Well, other then those three that's really it. Hopefully the Belmont undercard is better.

Of course my condolences go out to Carolyn Hine as she lost her wonderful Champion Skip Away today at the age of 17. #3 on the North American Earnings List, in a way Skip Away should be #1 as the 1-2 (Curlin and Cigar respectivly) had run in the Dubai World Cup which is why they are 1 and 2. Of many races, "Skippy" as he was called is honored with his own race the Skip Away down at Gulfstream. Somewhat fitting he passes away on the eve of the Preakness which he finished second in 1996 to Louis Quatorze. Skip Away was trained by Mrs. Hine's husband Sonny.

There's no chat tomorrow, I will be announcing the Summer Series List sometime in the next two to three weeks.

The Big Showdown is upon us

Girl vs Boys, Oaks winner vs Derby winner, Unknown trainer vs High profile trainer, backup vs backup. This is the 2009 Preakness Stakes field

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Morning-line odds
1. Big Drama David Fawkes John Velazquez 10-to-1
2. Mine That Bird Chip Woolley Mike Smith 6-to-1
3. Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 8-to-1
4. Luv Gov D. Wayne Lukas Jamie Theriot 50-to-1
5. Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 6-to-1
6. Terrain Al Stall Jr. Jeremy Rose 30-to-1
7. Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 12-to-1
8. General Quarters Tom McCarthy Julien Leparoux 20-to-1
9. Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 5-to-1
10. Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Alan Garcia 50-to-1
11. Take the Points Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 30-to-1
12. Tone It Down William Komlo Kent Desormeaux 50-to-1
13. Rachel Alexandra Steve Asmussen Calvin Borel 8-to-5

Big Drama won the Swale Stakes, however was DQ'ed after interfering with the second place finisher This One's For Phil. He did win the Delta Jackpot last year and has Johnny V on, he'll figure into the early speed. The more I think about it, the more I think Mine That Bird is a one hit wonder, I really like him, but his connections have turned me off. And while he has the last jockey to win on a 50-1 shot in the Derby (Giacomo), he won't get that rail trip he got last time. Mike Smith is in the irons for the first time, replacing Calvin Borel. (And if Zenyatta and Rach do go in the Classic this year, you can be sure that Mine will get his old jockey (and Mike's girlfriend), Chantal Sutherland, back in the saddle (Mike is the jockey for Zenyatta)). Musket Man, I think is a poorman's verison of Afleet Alex, he came into the Derby quite under radar, and I really like his chances here, although I don't think he'll be in the top three. However, I won't be suprised if he and Eibar Coa find a way to win. Luv Gov, almost didn't run in the race, if he was going to keep out Rachel Alexandra. While I think he will do better in the Belmont, I really hope that he does extremly well here, unfortanlly I don't know alot Jamie Teriot, even though he has ridden some nice horses before. While I'm still on the Friesan Fire bandwagon, I rather see him in the Belmont. This may be a little too short for him, and he did have some excuses in the Derby. But now that Gabe Saez has two Derbys under his belt, I trust him and hopefully (if Rach can't win), the two of them gives Larry Jones his first Triple Crown race win. While I consider Musket a poorman's Afleet Alex, Terrian's jockey Jeremy Rose knows Alex well as he rode the 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner. I don't know how well Terrian will do here, although having a local is very helpful. Can Snow Chief help Papa Clem? Well if it's 1985 all over again, it could happen. Rafael Bajarano will have to channel his inner (and fellow Cali based jock), Alex Solis. Thankfully after a little accident yesterday, Julian Leparoux's mount, General Quarters, is fine. He's still this year's Cinderella to me. I really do not like Pioneerof the Nile's chances here, no matter what Garrett Gomez does. Why is Flying Private in this race? He has last year's TC spoiler jockey in Alan Garcia... and well that's it. I would love to see Pimlico give some love to Edgar Prado after what happend in 2006, and I see it happening this year. I've been following his mount, Take the Points since earlier this year. He's coming out of an okay proformance in the SA Derby where the winner and 2nd place finisher, where 2nd and 5th in the Derby. It's funny, last year Kent Desormeaux last year was on the top of the world with Big Brown, and this year he rides the longest shot on the board, Tone It Down. Ironicly his trainer's late son, is a former quarterback for the University of Delaware, my hometown college team (Although he was on the run from the law. But that's a story for another day). While Kent went from winner to longshot, Calvin Borel is going from longshot winner, to favorite. While her post isn't the greatest, Rachel Alexandra, will be fine out of the 13 hole. Horses won't crowd around her, and she will be able to just get outside of Big Drama and rate like she did in the Oaks. Not too thrilled they pointed her to the race, but this is the shot in the arm that the Preakness needed. She will be the first filly to run since Excellent Meeting ran in 1999, unfortnally she DNFed as Charismatic showed he was no fluke. (Ironicly, TC spolier that year Lemon Drop Kid has a good chance to win the Belmont as a sire with Charitable Man)

So that is your 2009 Preakness. Should be an exciting race!

Top three:
Rachel (duh!)
Friesan
Points

I'll preview the Black-Eyed Susan Day and the undercard tomarrow.