Breeders' Cup Friday Preview

It's that time! The Breeders' Cup has arrived. Today's post will be all about the Friday races. Much like last year's post, I will be doing a pro and cons for each the Ladies Classic contenders.

5th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $500,000. Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS. Weight 122 lbs. All Fillies allowed 3 lbs. $5,000 to pre-enter, $10,000 to enter, with guaranteed $500,000 purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (04:10 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Seeker 2 C LA 122 Leparoux Julien R. Asmussen Steven M.
2 Sum Of The Parts 2 C L 122 Maragh Rajiv Amoss Thomas M.
3 Blacky The Bull 2 C LA 122 Valenzuela Patrick A. Bonde Jeff
4 Trinniberg 2 C L 122 Velasquez Cornelio H. Parboo Bisnath
5 Shumoos 2 F L 119 Gomez Garrett K. Meehan Brian
6 Secret Circle 2 C LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Baffert Bob
7 Holdin Bullets 2 G L 122 Sanchez Jeffrey Ward Wesley A.
8 Jake Mo 2 C LA 122 Smith Mike E. Milligan Allen
9 Vexor 2 C L 122 Cohen David Kimmel John C.

The newest of the Breeders' Cup races, a good group of horses. Secret Circle is the hot horse, Jake Mo got off to a great start but has faltered a bit lately, Vexor won the shortened Nashua, Trinniberg was the runner up in the Hopeful. I'm going with Seeker who was third in the Nashua behind Vexor and Trinniberg. Vexor for second and Secret Circle for third.

6th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $1,000,000. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 2). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight: 122 lbs. $10,000 to pre-enter, $20,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One mile.). (04:50 PM) (16)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 My Gi Gi 2 F LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Koriner Brian J.
2 Dayatthespa 2 F L 122 Dominguez Ramon A. Brown Chad C.
3 Up (IRE) 2 F L 122 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
4 Stopshoppingmaria 2 F LA 122 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
5 Stephanie's Kitten 2 F LA 122 Velazquez John R. Catalano Wayne M.
6 Sweet Cat 2 F LA 122 Gomez Garrett K. Pletcher Todd A.
7 Royal Bonnie 2 F LA 122 Velasquez Cornelio H. Weaver George
8 Hard Not To Like 2 F LA 122 Smith Mike E. Cox Gail
9 Pure Gossip 2 F L 122 Curatolo Ryan Serpe Philip M.
10 Elusive Kate 2 F 122 Buick William T. Gosden John H. M.
11 Ann Of The Dance 2 F L 122 Nakatani Corey S. Wolfson Martin D.
12 Dear Lavinia 2 F 122 Lemaire Christophe P. Rouget Jean-Claude
13 Customer Base 2 F L 122 Leparoux Julien R. Proctor Thomas F.
14 Somali Lemonade 2 F LA 122 Solis Alex O. Matz Michael R.
15 Bourbonstreetgirl 2 F L 122 Talamo Joseph Contessa Gary C.
16 Karlovy Vary 2 F LA 122 Gomez Garrett K. Arnold, II George R.

Welcome back to the Breeders' Cup to the McNairs! They restarted their stable after selling their stock to Darley a few years ago. Their horse Elusive Kate has won Group 1 races in France. In matter of fact, many of these fillies could even do well in the dirt version (Elusive Kate, Hard Not the Like, Stopshoppingmaria and My Gi Gi). Stephanie's Kitten won the Alcibides last time out, but her connections sound like her career is best on the turf. Somali Lemonade could be the next Winter Memories, but the outside post hurts her. Hard Not to Like has already defeated boys twice, but her stakes win was on a soft turf against fellow CAN breds. Good news her jockey knows how to come from behind and should suit her running style well. Ann of the Dance also defeated the boys, but faltered in her two stakes tries. Elusive Kate is going to be hard to beat, but I'm going to try to with either Stephanie's Kitten, Stopshoppingmaria and/or Hard Not to Like.

7th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. $10,000 to pre-enter, $20,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (05:30 PM) (13)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Irish Gypsy 5 M LA 124 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
2 Great Hot (BRZ) 3 F L 122 Sutherland Chantal Avila A. C.
3 Turbulent Descent 3 F LA 122 Flores David Romero Puype Mike
4 Champagne D'oro 4 F LA 124 Nakatani Corey S. Guillot Eric J.
5 Musical Romance 4 F L 124 Leyva Juan C. Kaplan William A.
6 Switch 4 F LA 124 Rosario Joel Sadler John W.
7 Tar Heel Mom 6 M LA 124 Solis Alex O. Hough Stanley M.
8 Tanda 4 F LA 124 Talamo Joseph Mitchell Mike R.
9 Golden Mystery 5 M LA 124 Carmouche Kendrick Guerrero Juan Carlos
10 Tamarind Hall 4 F LA 124 Cohen David Englehart Jeremiah C.
11 Her Smile 3 F LA 122 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
12 Pomeroys Pistol 3 F L 122 Castellano Javier Tarrant Amy
13 Shotgun Gulch 4 F L 124 Gomez Garrett K. Trout C. R.

Historically speaking, winner of this race is the Champion Female Sprinter (the exception is Indian Blessing). This is probley the most wide open race of both days and even with Turbulent Descent in this race. Switch might be tired from a campaign that had her go all different distances, but she was the runner up in this race last year. Tamarind Hall was able to go from Finger Lakes, to stakes placement. Other then Turbulent Descent do not count out Her Smile and Pomeroys Pistol, especially PP whose always there at the end. I'm going with Tar Heel Mom, she bounced in her prep, but should rebound in this race. Switch for second and Tamarind Hall or Pomeroy's Pistol for third.

Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $2,000,000. Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (06:10 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Questing (GB) 2 F L 122 Buick William T. Gosden John H. M.
2 Candrea 2 F LA 122 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
3 Rocket Twentyone 2 F LA 122 Razo, Jr. Eusebio Howard W. T.
4 Miss Netta 2 F LA 122 Maragh Rajiv McLaughlin Kiaran P.
5 Grace Hall 2 F L 122 Dominguez Ramon A. Dutrow Anthony W.
6 Self Preservation 2 F LA 122 Rosario Joel Cecil Ben D. A.
7 Putthebabiesdown 2 F LA 122 Garcia Alan McPeek Kenneth G.
8 Homecoming Queen (IRE) 2 F L 122 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.
9 My Miss Aurelia 2 F LA 122 Nakatani Corey S. Asmussen Steven M.
10 Northern Passion 2 F LA 122 Contreras Luis Casse Mark E.
11 Weemissfrankie 2 F LA 122 Bejarano Rafael Eurton Peter
12 Frolic's Revenge 2 F L 122 Velazquez John R. Wolfson Milton W.
13 Say A Novena 2 F L 122 Trujillo Elvis Plesa, Jr. Edward
14 Awesome Belle 2 F L 122 Jurado Luis Gold Stanley I.

Of the two Europeans, Questing has the better chance (has had sibs win on dirt), Homecoming Queen's half sib also has dirt experience, but then again Dylan Thomas got a beat down by Bernardini in the JCGC. This is the first of the East vs West showdowns to watch. Weemissfrankie hails from the West; Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia are from the East. Northern Passion reps Canada, and Awesome Belle hails from the same owner, sire and trainer as Awesome Feather. This past weekend's Pocahontas was going to be an indicator of how well this Juvy would have turn out. I gotta say... Weemissfrankie is going to be very hard to beat in this race. Even with her post position her running style might be okay. I rather seen Questing off the rail since she's never been on dirt so has not had dirt kicked in her face. Those are my top two with Grace Hall in third.

9th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 3/8 Mile Turf. Purse $2,000,000. Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 115 lbs. Older, 124 lbs. $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner,1% to second and 0.55% to third. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One and One Fourth mile.). (06:50 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Dubawi Heights (GB) 4 F L 124 Rosario Joel Callaghan Simon
2 Stacelita (FR) 5 M L 124 Dominguez Ramon A. Brown Chad C.
3 Harmonious 4 F LA 124 Garcia Martin Shirreffs John A.
4 Cambina (IRE) 3 F LA 120 Gomez Garrett K. Bonde Jeff
5 Nahrain (GB) 3 F L 120 Dettori Lanfranco Varian Roger
6 Announce (GB) 4 F 124 Guyon Maxime H. Fabre Andre
7 Aruna 4 F LA 124 Leparoux Julien R. Motion H. Graham
8 Perfect Shirl 4 F LA 124 Velazquez John R. Attfield Roger L.
9 Shared Account 5 M LA 124 Prado Edgar S. Motion H. Graham
10 Distorted Legacy 4 F L 124 Maragh Rajiv Penna, Jr. Angel J.
11 Dynaslew 5 M LA 124 Nakatani Corey S. Benzel Seth
12 Misty For Me (IRE) 3 F L 120 Moore Ryan L. O'Brien Aidan P.

Two of the major players opted for the Turf, so this race came up a little bit of the "light side". Stacelita has done nothing wrong since her US debut which she finished third in. Nahrain will be Frankie's only mount on both cards thanks to suspention that starts on Saturday. Shared Account is the defending champ, but she hasn't had the same form that she did last year. Aruna had the option of going in the Ladies Classic, but goes here instead. I gotta stick with my girl Cambina, she's had some bad luck lately. Distance will def help her cause. Perfect Shirl for second (since someone who I assume works for her owner Chuck Fipke has an account for her sire Perfect Soul) and Stacelita for third.

Last, but not least. No Blind Luck, No Zazu, No Havre de Grace? No Problem!

10th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, November 4th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $2,000,000. Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-year-olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-year-olds, 116 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. $20,000 to pre-enter, $40,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including nominator awards of which 54% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 9.9% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus stallion nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third and foal nominator awards of 3% to the winner, 1% to second and 0.55% to third. (07:30 PM) (10)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Miss Match (ARG) 6 M LA b 124 Gomez Garrett K. Drysdale Neil D.
2 Pachattack 5 M LA b 124 Maragh Rajiv Butler Gerard A.
3 It's Tricky 3 F LA 121 Dominguez Ramon A. McLaughlin Kiaran P.
4 Satans Quick Chick 5 M LA 124 Prado Edgar S. Reed Eric R.
5 Ask The Moon 6 M LA 124 Castellano Javier Wolfson Martin D.
6 Royal Delta 3 F LA 121 Lezcano Jose Mott William I.
7 Ultra Blend 5 M L 124 Flores David Romero Sherman Art
8 Plum Pretty 3 F L 121 Bejarano Rafael Baffert Bob
9 Medaglia D'amour 5 M LA b 124 Valenzuela Patrick A. Cecil Ben D. A.
10 Super Espresso 4 F LA 124 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.

Here we go the Ladies Classic Pros and Cons.

Miss Match
Pros: Returns to female compition, 4th at this distance last time out
Cons: Hasn't shown the same spark she did in her first two races in the West

Pachattack
Pros: Has been consistant in the US and Canada, 2nd on dirt, has won on the Main Track
Cons: Might be too short, her lone win in NA was on poly, lost to a horse who bombed in California

It's Tricky
Pros: Has beaten Plum Pretty and Turbulent Descent, multiple G1 winner, should love the Churchill surface, cooler weather
Cons: Can be antsy so the crowd could effect her, might be tailing off from a strong summer campagin, not a great second in her last start, will be facing older for the first time

Satan's Quick Chick
Pros: Dam's sister is the dam to Union Rags (Juvenile favorite), 3rd to Havre de Grace last time out
Cons: Hasn't won since January, Grace destroyed the field in the Beldame, her previous graded stakes trys this year haven't been successful.

Ask the Moon
Pros: Won two Grade 1's this summer, Churchill should suit her running style well
Cons: GREEN! She did not face Grace in those two G1's, she did not do well in California.

Royal Delta
Pros: Won the Alabama defeating Plum Pretty and It's Tricky, 2nd to Grace in the Beldame.
Cons: Really there's not much con, her worst loss was in Florida, the only thing I can think of is that she's lightly raced.

Ultra Blend
Pros: Hasn't done much wrong this year, 2nd to Zazu in the Lady's Secret, could be a dark horse
Cons: Never been outside of California.

Plum Pretty
Pros: Won on this track earlier in the year, rebounded from an okay summer last time out
Cons: Will be facing older for the first time, might be a tad longer then she really wants to go, dispite winning at this distance.

Medaglia D'amour
Pros: Uhh... PVal! And has main track experience
Cons: Never raced on dirt, never has been out of California, not really much going for her

Super Espresso
Pros: Bred simlar to Rachel Alexandra (MDO out of a Forty Niner mare, Rachel is of course out of a Roar mare, Roar is by Forty Niner), did well in stakes company especially G1's, will enjoy the return to dirt.
Cons: Has tailed off a bit since her good Ruffian showing, outside post might hurt her a bit, trainer and jockey where involved in that Life at Ten feisco last year, so there might be people who might bet against her because of that.

So who wins the race? I'm going with Royal Delta, I just think that if that the Beldame was better then people say it was and a dry track will be something she should prob. love. Ultra Blend for second and Super Espresso for third.