The final week of rankings is upon us! All of the horses in this weeks ranks are Pre-Entered into their respective races. So here we go! More after the jump.
Showing posts with label rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rankings. Show all posts
October 24, 2012
October 15, 2012
BC Rankings: Week 5
Welcome to the second to last rankings for the 2012 Breeders' Cup! For those who are asking, I'll explain why next week will be the final week of rankings. Next Weds is the Pre-Entry phase for the BC. This is when we will offically know who is going and who is not. Because of this, the rankings for next week will not be out till Weds evening. Secondly, it will mark a little more then a week before the BC, so that would be a good stopping point. That doesn't mean BC coverage will go the wayside. Nope oodles of coverage as we hit the 2 week mark to this year's races at Santa Anita. Like last week, the same races will be covered, but there won't be any remarks or other horses considerd. Both of those will return next week though. As for the rankings, the biggest change is in the F/M Turf and Turf. Read more after the jump!
October 8, 2012
BC Rankings: Week 4
Hi everyone! Another weekend of racing is over and this week I can announce that all of the divisions that I said I would be ranking will now be included (except for the Dirt Mile which for length reasons I will be dropping from this year's Ranking. Sorry all!). I'm also going to change the order a bit and the Classic will be the last one listed. Click after the jump to read more!
October 1, 2012
BC Rankings Week 3
Super Saturday in the books and some very interesting things happened. The Classic became. In the Ladies Classic and Turf the gaulent was thrown down to Awesome Feather and the Euros. I was going to introduce the Dirt Mile and Turf races this week, but have decided to hold off one more week. The Sprints will be back next week as SA runs their final prep. So just the Classic and Ladies Classic for this week.
Lets take a look at this weeks rankings.
Classic
1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: Workman like proformance in Saturday's Awesome Again. He doesn't win by eye popping numbers all the time, he only does what he needs to do.
2. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno), Ritvo: Although idle, switches places with Ron the Greek after the latter bombed in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Skipping the race was not a bad idea at all.
3. Royal Delta (filly) (Empire Maker), Mott: Orginally she was going to defend her Ladies Classic title, however I read reports on Twitter that she will indeed take on the males once again. This time the dirt surface will be more to her likeing that she saw in Dubai with the Tapeta.
4. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: With a poor finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he gets bumped down to 3rd. However, a win at Santa Anita doesn't get him off the list all together.
5. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: 3rd in the JCGC who should love the speed favoring surface of Santa Anita. He just ran into on Saturday two horses who love the Belmont surface in Flat Out and Stay Thirsty.
Others Considered
Nonios (Pleasantly Perfect)- 2nd in the AA behind Game on Dude. The good news is that 9 years ago his dad won the Classic on the Santa Anita track, although that was before the surface switch form dirt to synthetic back to dirt.
Richard's Kid (Lemon Drop Kid)- Although he seems to be more of a Marathon type horse then Classic, he was 3rd in both the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again (a fast closing at that), plus runner up in the Hollywood Gold Cup.
Stay Thirsty (Bernardini)- The Jockey Club Gold Cup runner up was having a miserable season. Even though it sounds like he might be done, it wouldn't suprise me at all if his connections decide to take a shot and go for the Classic.
Flat Out (Flatter)- The now 2 time Jockey Club Gold Cup is a Belmont specialist. However, there is just something about him that makes me think that he will do at Santa Anita. Will he win? Prob. not, but he might be rounding back into form at the right time.
Alternation (Distorted Humor)- Although he is a very talented horse, him facing what is not currently top quality company hurts him on the rankings. Hopefully some nice horses face him in the Hawthorne Gold Cup.
Off the Board: Golden Ticket (Speightstown)- I got dinged a little for putting him the #5 spot last week, but honestly I really didn't know who else to put in there. Hopefully this week is much better.
Ladies Classic
1. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: Has not done anything wrong in her career, everybody thinks she will win the Ladies Classic, I'm not 100% sure.
1a. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: Just to cover all bases, I'm putting her here as well. Just in case the rumors turn out to be false.
2. Love and Pride (A.P. Indy), Pletcher: Lose Awesome Maria, no problem for Team Todd. The Personal Ensign and Zenyatta winner sent a statement to the West Coast fillies with her gate to wire win. Hopefully though there is a much fairer track.
3. My Miss Aurilia (Smart Strike), Asmussen: The biggest question mark for her now is the distance and can she overcome the speed bias track that is Santa Anita?
4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: She will press Love and Pride on the end in what will be toughest race of the entire weekend. Even if she loses the race, if she finishes in front of MMA, the 2007 Classic runner up will have a Champion in his first crop.
5. Include Me Out (Include), Ellis: Orginally, I had her in Others Considered, but reportly with Royal Delta going to the Classic, she gets put in this spot. 3rd to Love and Pride in the Zenyatta, she reportly wasn't fully cranked for the race since she already had gained her win and you're in spot.
Others Considered
Via Villagio (Bernardini)- 4th place for 3yo in a brutal race is not bad. After all she finished in front of Amani (who hasn't lived up to her hype) and Switch. My gut feeling is she'll be rested and try the La Canada Series (or whatever is left of it) in the Winter.
It's Tricky (Mineshaft)- Although I think she's still F/M Sprint bound, until otherwise noted, she's going to be placed here.
Lets take a look at this weeks rankings.
Classic
1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: Workman like proformance in Saturday's Awesome Again. He doesn't win by eye popping numbers all the time, he only does what he needs to do.
2. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno), Ritvo: Although idle, switches places with Ron the Greek after the latter bombed in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Skipping the race was not a bad idea at all.
3. Royal Delta (filly) (Empire Maker), Mott: Orginally she was going to defend her Ladies Classic title, however I read reports on Twitter that she will indeed take on the males once again. This time the dirt surface will be more to her likeing that she saw in Dubai with the Tapeta.
4. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: With a poor finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he gets bumped down to 3rd. However, a win at Santa Anita doesn't get him off the list all together.
5. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: 3rd in the JCGC who should love the speed favoring surface of Santa Anita. He just ran into on Saturday two horses who love the Belmont surface in Flat Out and Stay Thirsty.
Others Considered
Nonios (Pleasantly Perfect)- 2nd in the AA behind Game on Dude. The good news is that 9 years ago his dad won the Classic on the Santa Anita track, although that was before the surface switch form dirt to synthetic back to dirt.
Richard's Kid (Lemon Drop Kid)- Although he seems to be more of a Marathon type horse then Classic, he was 3rd in both the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again (a fast closing at that), plus runner up in the Hollywood Gold Cup.
Stay Thirsty (Bernardini)- The Jockey Club Gold Cup runner up was having a miserable season. Even though it sounds like he might be done, it wouldn't suprise me at all if his connections decide to take a shot and go for the Classic.
Flat Out (Flatter)- The now 2 time Jockey Club Gold Cup is a Belmont specialist. However, there is just something about him that makes me think that he will do at Santa Anita. Will he win? Prob. not, but he might be rounding back into form at the right time.
Alternation (Distorted Humor)- Although he is a very talented horse, him facing what is not currently top quality company hurts him on the rankings. Hopefully some nice horses face him in the Hawthorne Gold Cup.
Off the Board: Golden Ticket (Speightstown)- I got dinged a little for putting him the #5 spot last week, but honestly I really didn't know who else to put in there. Hopefully this week is much better.
Ladies Classic
1. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: Has not done anything wrong in her career, everybody thinks she will win the Ladies Classic, I'm not 100% sure.
1a. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: Just to cover all bases, I'm putting her here as well. Just in case the rumors turn out to be false.
2. Love and Pride (A.P. Indy), Pletcher: Lose Awesome Maria, no problem for Team Todd. The Personal Ensign and Zenyatta winner sent a statement to the West Coast fillies with her gate to wire win. Hopefully though there is a much fairer track.
3. My Miss Aurilia (Smart Strike), Asmussen: The biggest question mark for her now is the distance and can she overcome the speed bias track that is Santa Anita?
4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: She will press Love and Pride on the end in what will be toughest race of the entire weekend. Even if she loses the race, if she finishes in front of MMA, the 2007 Classic runner up will have a Champion in his first crop.
5. Include Me Out (Include), Ellis: Orginally, I had her in Others Considered, but reportly with Royal Delta going to the Classic, she gets put in this spot. 3rd to Love and Pride in the Zenyatta, she reportly wasn't fully cranked for the race since she already had gained her win and you're in spot.
Others Considered
Via Villagio (Bernardini)- 4th place for 3yo in a brutal race is not bad. After all she finished in front of Amani (who hasn't lived up to her hype) and Switch. My gut feeling is she'll be rested and try the La Canada Series (or whatever is left of it) in the Winter.
It's Tricky (Mineshaft)- Although I think she's still F/M Sprint bound, until otherwise noted, she's going to be placed here.
September 24, 2012
Breeders' Cup Rankings: Week 2
Another weekend of racing has passed, and believe it or not the order has changed a bit for the Classic and Ladies Classic. This week I will also introduce the dirt Sprint divisions. The distance Turf divisions and Dirt Mile will debut next week as Super Saturday is this upcoming Sat!
Classic
1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: Big test this week in the Awesome Again. Still not a big fan of the jockey switch, but Rafael Bajarano is no slouch and honestly is a better rider then Chantal Sutherland.
2. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: If he wins the JCGC, then he would have 3 G1 wins at 3 of the most imporant tracks in the US. That's pretty big if you ask me.
3. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno), Ritvo: Jumps up two spots this week. While going into the BCC not running since September isn't ideal, I'm actually okay with it. He loves to run when he's fresh and Kathy knows this horse. She'll be able to get him ready for the big race in November.
4. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: This was a tough spot to drop him, but Saturday is not going to be an easy race for him.
5. Golden Ticket (Speightstown), McPeek: Won the little battle between him and Alpha, but it was only good for 3rd in the PA Derby. Despite his sprinter dad, something tells me he's better longer then shorter. If he wasn't going onto turf, Dullahan would have been in this spot instead.
Others Considered
Macho Macho (Macho Uno)- The WV Derby winner came up short against Handsome Mike. Don't think he's a true Classic contender this year, but will be one certinally to watch in the future.
To Honor and Serve (Bernardini)- Teetering between two races, he'll def make his ranking debut next week in one of the divisions pending the outcome of the Kelso.
Dullahan (Even the Score)- The same goes for him, but it sounds like they are more leaning towards the turf races then the dirt.
Off all together: Alpha (Bernardini)- He really is the new Stay Thirsty. Brilliant in New York, not so much everywhere else.
Ladies Classic
1. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: Okay you have convinced me, I watched her race and she's going to be awefully hard to beat. This is going to be her hardest assignment to date, and while she will get a good pace, can she overcome possible challenges?
2. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: I am not ready to give up on her. With that being said, last year's Older Females outside of Blind Luck and Havre de Grace where awful, with the both of them out of the race she was able to win with ease. This year, it's her, Awesome Feather, Love and Pride and It's Tricky. Add in Questing and My Miss Aurelia for the 3yo fillies, and it's going to be an awfully hard time for her. Hopefully a good showing in the Beldame will put her back into the winning conversation.
3. Include Me Out (Include), Ellis: According to Horse Racing Nation, Love and Pride could come out and face her in the Zenyatta. This will be her toughest test to date, but if she can handle that then she has a big chance in the LC. My 1 concern about her is that the East Coast fillies are just too good this year. Still they are coming cross country where as she is in the comfort of her own backyard.
4. My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike), Asmussen: The 2yo Champion from last year was able to run down the now former #1 3yo filly in Questing in a thrilling Cotillion. However, that was at a mile and sixteenth. The LC is a mile and an eighth which is more up to Questing's advantage. Both her and Awesome Feather are still undefeated, one of them heck even both will/could come out of the race with a blemish on their records.
5. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: A big reason why It's Tricky is not on this week's list is because honestly, this girl is much better at 9 furlongs then she is at 8.5 furlongs. And that's saying something. Yes she lost to My Miss Aurelia, but her jockey took her out of her comfort zone by slowing the pace which allowed Aurelia to stay in the race longer. She needs to blitz them from the beginning to have any chance at the end. The other thing is that she was giving weight to MMA. Luckly, Santa Anita is more speed friendly then Philadelphia is.
Others Considered
Love and Pride (A.P. Indy)- If she defeats Include Me Out (if she's going that is) or wins the Beldame at home, then next week she could very well debut here.
It's Tricky (Mineshaft)- I'm going to put her here for now, because I still think there's a very good chance she goes here. With that said, both races she's under consideration for are going to be very tough for her.
Via Villagio (Bernardini)- Not sure if she's good enough for the LC, but could be an interesting horse.
In Lingerie (Empire Marker)- There's just something about her that I like, but she's turning out to be a bit of an enigma. Just can't put my finger on it.
Sprint
1. Amazombie (Northern Afleet), Spawr: This is truly going to be a West vs East showdown. The defending champ debuts in the top spot off his win in the Bing Crosby. He heads to this weekend with eyes on defending his what was formally known as the Ancient Title championship. Hasn't finished out of the Top 3 this season.
2. Emcee (Unbridled's Song), McLaughlin: With the defeats of Questing and Alpha last weekend, all of a sudden he might be Godolphin's best horse. Out of a 1/2 sister to a G1 winner at 7 furlongs (Awesome Humor), he won the Forego in his last and was 3rd in the Vanderbilt.
3. Poseidon's Warrior (Speightstown), Reid: The Vanderbilt winner defeated Justin Phillip and the formentioned Emcee. His biggest issue is consistency, before the Vanderbilt he had finished off the board in 2 of his 3 starts. Now granted one of them was on the turf against possibly the #1 turf sprinter in the US (who won't be going to the BC once again), so that could be forgiven. Still he'll have to show that his Vandy win was no fluke.
4. Justin Phillip (First Samurai), Asmussen: Although the begging of the year didn't start well for him, he has gotten stronger as the year has gone on. 1 win this year so far, but his past 3 starts have been in the money all three times including a runner up finish to Poseidon's Warrior in his last. Justin's biggest problem is that he needs to finish it off, he's talented enough to win a G1 race, he just has to get it done.
5. Camp Victory (Forest Camp), Mitchell: Even though he's more of a synth/turf specialist, he did win at SA last year on the dirt. The winner of the Triple Bend, he was third in the Pat O'Brien in his last race. Going against Amazombie is one thing, but with 3yo filly Renesgotzip also possible for the SA Sprint Championship, who knows what's going to happen to him.
Others Considered
Sean Avery (Cherokee Run)- Last year's Vanderbilt winner returned to the racetrack a resounding winner in a listed stakes. His biggest issue is that he has a history of soundness issues and well honestly I thought the Vandy would be the last time we would ever see him. I'm glad to say I was wrong about that, but hopefully he stays healthy.
Trinniberg (Teuflesberg)- In what was the strongest 3yo division well... it's been turned upside down now. He did rebound from his poor King's Bishop to finish second in the Gallant Bob in his last, but arch rival Currency Swap wasn't so lucky.
Fort Loudon (Awesome of Course)- From the same breeder/owner that brought you Jackson Bend and Awesome Feather. 2nd in the King's Bishop after finishing 5th in the Amsterdam to Currency Swap. Defeated Trinniberg in the Carry Back in Florida.
Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Groupie Doll (Bowman's Band), Bradley: In what is another tough division, this is a little bit more clear cut. She's already defeated both Switch and Musical Romance in the Humana in May. She had an injury that kept her out for the summer, but it wasn't an issue when she returned a few weeks ago in the PI Masters. While doubtful she heads that way, she could easily do well in the Sprint or Dirt Mile as well as she was second to Boys at Toscanova in an Allowance earlier this year.
2. Dust and Diamonds (Vindication), Asmussen: Also defeated Musical Romance, and added Turbulent Descent to her list as well when she won the Gallant Bloom on Saturday. I actually saw her on DelCap day when she won the Dashing Beauty where she put on a flat out clinic that day. She hasn't done much wrong in her career having not finished out of the money.
3. Switch (Quiet American), Sadler: The 2 time runner up in this race is due. While she has only won once this year, it was a graded stakes over a good group of horses. At 5, the BC will prob. be her farewell to the track. However the good news is her female family has a great successor in Questing.
4. Contested (Ghostzapper), Baffert: Rebounded in the Test from a very poor Mother Goose. However, in that race she had to do something that she had never done before and that's come from the back of the pack. This won't be an easy race for her, but a good showing could put her in a spot to be the top Female Sprinter for next year.
5. Winding Way (Malibu Moon), Gaines: Although there is a chance a win might be taken away from her, she is a very talented filly. After a terrible break in her last race, she was able to overcome the start to grind out the win. That was pretty impressive considering she prefers to run up front in the early stages. She hasn't raced on dirt yet, but her little sister is Kauai Katie who won a G2 at Saratoga this Summer.
Others Considered
Judy the Beauty (Ghostzapper)- runner up in both the Prioress and Gallant Bloom, spent last year as a bit of a world traveler where she won races in Kentucky, France and Canada.
Emma's Encore (Congrats)- Although she somewhat struggled against older on Saturday, she did surprise everyone in her previous two starts the Prioress and Victory Ride, the latter where she upset then undefeated Agave Kiss.
Musical Romance (Concorde's Tune)- It's not that the defending champion having a horrible year, after all she did win the Princess Rooney. It's that she's been unfortunate to run into Groupie Doll 3 times this year and losing all three times. While she and Switch should swap places, I put the latter where I did, because honestly I trust her more then I do the former.
It's Tricky (Mineshaft)- She could make her debut on this list next week should it be decided to keep her and Questing apart.
Classic
1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: Big test this week in the Awesome Again. Still not a big fan of the jockey switch, but Rafael Bajarano is no slouch and honestly is a better rider then Chantal Sutherland.
2. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: If he wins the JCGC, then he would have 3 G1 wins at 3 of the most imporant tracks in the US. That's pretty big if you ask me.
3. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno), Ritvo: Jumps up two spots this week. While going into the BCC not running since September isn't ideal, I'm actually okay with it. He loves to run when he's fresh and Kathy knows this horse. She'll be able to get him ready for the big race in November.
4. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: This was a tough spot to drop him, but Saturday is not going to be an easy race for him.
5. Golden Ticket (Speightstown), McPeek: Won the little battle between him and Alpha, but it was only good for 3rd in the PA Derby. Despite his sprinter dad, something tells me he's better longer then shorter. If he wasn't going onto turf, Dullahan would have been in this spot instead.
Others Considered
Macho Macho (Macho Uno)- The WV Derby winner came up short against Handsome Mike. Don't think he's a true Classic contender this year, but will be one certinally to watch in the future.
To Honor and Serve (Bernardini)- Teetering between two races, he'll def make his ranking debut next week in one of the divisions pending the outcome of the Kelso.
Dullahan (Even the Score)- The same goes for him, but it sounds like they are more leaning towards the turf races then the dirt.
Off all together: Alpha (Bernardini)- He really is the new Stay Thirsty. Brilliant in New York, not so much everywhere else.
Ladies Classic
1. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: Okay you have convinced me, I watched her race and she's going to be awefully hard to beat. This is going to be her hardest assignment to date, and while she will get a good pace, can she overcome possible challenges?
2. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: I am not ready to give up on her. With that being said, last year's Older Females outside of Blind Luck and Havre de Grace where awful, with the both of them out of the race she was able to win with ease. This year, it's her, Awesome Feather, Love and Pride and It's Tricky. Add in Questing and My Miss Aurelia for the 3yo fillies, and it's going to be an awfully hard time for her. Hopefully a good showing in the Beldame will put her back into the winning conversation.
3. Include Me Out (Include), Ellis: According to Horse Racing Nation, Love and Pride could come out and face her in the Zenyatta. This will be her toughest test to date, but if she can handle that then she has a big chance in the LC. My 1 concern about her is that the East Coast fillies are just too good this year. Still they are coming cross country where as she is in the comfort of her own backyard.
4. My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike), Asmussen: The 2yo Champion from last year was able to run down the now former #1 3yo filly in Questing in a thrilling Cotillion. However, that was at a mile and sixteenth. The LC is a mile and an eighth which is more up to Questing's advantage. Both her and Awesome Feather are still undefeated, one of them heck even both will/could come out of the race with a blemish on their records.
5. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: A big reason why It's Tricky is not on this week's list is because honestly, this girl is much better at 9 furlongs then she is at 8.5 furlongs. And that's saying something. Yes she lost to My Miss Aurelia, but her jockey took her out of her comfort zone by slowing the pace which allowed Aurelia to stay in the race longer. She needs to blitz them from the beginning to have any chance at the end. The other thing is that she was giving weight to MMA. Luckly, Santa Anita is more speed friendly then Philadelphia is.
Others Considered
Love and Pride (A.P. Indy)- If she defeats Include Me Out (if she's going that is) or wins the Beldame at home, then next week she could very well debut here.
It's Tricky (Mineshaft)- I'm going to put her here for now, because I still think there's a very good chance she goes here. With that said, both races she's under consideration for are going to be very tough for her.
Via Villagio (Bernardini)- Not sure if she's good enough for the LC, but could be an interesting horse.
In Lingerie (Empire Marker)- There's just something about her that I like, but she's turning out to be a bit of an enigma. Just can't put my finger on it.
Sprint
1. Amazombie (Northern Afleet), Spawr: This is truly going to be a West vs East showdown. The defending champ debuts in the top spot off his win in the Bing Crosby. He heads to this weekend with eyes on defending his what was formally known as the Ancient Title championship. Hasn't finished out of the Top 3 this season.
2. Emcee (Unbridled's Song), McLaughlin: With the defeats of Questing and Alpha last weekend, all of a sudden he might be Godolphin's best horse. Out of a 1/2 sister to a G1 winner at 7 furlongs (Awesome Humor), he won the Forego in his last and was 3rd in the Vanderbilt.
3. Poseidon's Warrior (Speightstown), Reid: The Vanderbilt winner defeated Justin Phillip and the formentioned Emcee. His biggest issue is consistency, before the Vanderbilt he had finished off the board in 2 of his 3 starts. Now granted one of them was on the turf against possibly the #1 turf sprinter in the US (who won't be going to the BC once again), so that could be forgiven. Still he'll have to show that his Vandy win was no fluke.
4. Justin Phillip (First Samurai), Asmussen: Although the begging of the year didn't start well for him, he has gotten stronger as the year has gone on. 1 win this year so far, but his past 3 starts have been in the money all three times including a runner up finish to Poseidon's Warrior in his last. Justin's biggest problem is that he needs to finish it off, he's talented enough to win a G1 race, he just has to get it done.
5. Camp Victory (Forest Camp), Mitchell: Even though he's more of a synth/turf specialist, he did win at SA last year on the dirt. The winner of the Triple Bend, he was third in the Pat O'Brien in his last race. Going against Amazombie is one thing, but with 3yo filly Renesgotzip also possible for the SA Sprint Championship, who knows what's going to happen to him.
Others Considered
Sean Avery (Cherokee Run)- Last year's Vanderbilt winner returned to the racetrack a resounding winner in a listed stakes. His biggest issue is that he has a history of soundness issues and well honestly I thought the Vandy would be the last time we would ever see him. I'm glad to say I was wrong about that, but hopefully he stays healthy.
Trinniberg (Teuflesberg)- In what was the strongest 3yo division well... it's been turned upside down now. He did rebound from his poor King's Bishop to finish second in the Gallant Bob in his last, but arch rival Currency Swap wasn't so lucky.
Fort Loudon (Awesome of Course)- From the same breeder/owner that brought you Jackson Bend and Awesome Feather. 2nd in the King's Bishop after finishing 5th in the Amsterdam to Currency Swap. Defeated Trinniberg in the Carry Back in Florida.
Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Groupie Doll (Bowman's Band), Bradley: In what is another tough division, this is a little bit more clear cut. She's already defeated both Switch and Musical Romance in the Humana in May. She had an injury that kept her out for the summer, but it wasn't an issue when she returned a few weeks ago in the PI Masters. While doubtful she heads that way, she could easily do well in the Sprint or Dirt Mile as well as she was second to Boys at Toscanova in an Allowance earlier this year.
2. Dust and Diamonds (Vindication), Asmussen: Also defeated Musical Romance, and added Turbulent Descent to her list as well when she won the Gallant Bloom on Saturday. I actually saw her on DelCap day when she won the Dashing Beauty where she put on a flat out clinic that day. She hasn't done much wrong in her career having not finished out of the money.
3. Switch (Quiet American), Sadler: The 2 time runner up in this race is due. While she has only won once this year, it was a graded stakes over a good group of horses. At 5, the BC will prob. be her farewell to the track. However the good news is her female family has a great successor in Questing.
4. Contested (Ghostzapper), Baffert: Rebounded in the Test from a very poor Mother Goose. However, in that race she had to do something that she had never done before and that's come from the back of the pack. This won't be an easy race for her, but a good showing could put her in a spot to be the top Female Sprinter for next year.
5. Winding Way (Malibu Moon), Gaines: Although there is a chance a win might be taken away from her, she is a very talented filly. After a terrible break in her last race, she was able to overcome the start to grind out the win. That was pretty impressive considering she prefers to run up front in the early stages. She hasn't raced on dirt yet, but her little sister is Kauai Katie who won a G2 at Saratoga this Summer.
Others Considered
Judy the Beauty (Ghostzapper)- runner up in both the Prioress and Gallant Bloom, spent last year as a bit of a world traveler where she won races in Kentucky, France and Canada.
Emma's Encore (Congrats)- Although she somewhat struggled against older on Saturday, she did surprise everyone in her previous two starts the Prioress and Victory Ride, the latter where she upset then undefeated Agave Kiss.
Musical Romance (Concorde's Tune)- It's not that the defending champion having a horrible year, after all she did win the Princess Rooney. It's that she's been unfortunate to run into Groupie Doll 3 times this year and losing all three times. While she and Switch should swap places, I put the latter where I did, because honestly I trust her more then I do the former.
It's Tricky (Mineshaft)- She could make her debut on this list next week should it be decided to keep her and Questing apart.
September 20, 2012
Breeders' Cup Rankings: Week 1
We are starting to getting down to the nitty gritty for the Breeders' Cup. This Friday will be 7 weeks (including November 2nd which is Day 1 of the 2 day event. From now until the week before the BC, I will have rankings for the 3yo+ catagories only except for the Marathon. For me, there won't be enough information for me to look at the Juvenile races until I look at the pedigrees of the horses to see who can go 2 turns and with the Marathon there maybe some Euros who while not their best surface might have the edge distance wise. That being said, when I do my big two day preview the Weds and Thurs before the races are run, I will be previewing those races. Today only I will be doing the Classic and Ladies Classic, but starting next week will be doing the other divisions.
Classic
1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: The winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup and runner up in the Pacific Classic. He won the Santa Anita Handicap last year, but he is getting a new rider for the Awesome Again (formally the Goodwood). Will that come back to haunt Bob and the rest his connections?
2. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: Last year, Bill surprised everyone when Drosselmeyer won the BC Classic. Ron has already won this year's Big Cap and won the Foster as well. Although he is one of the more consistent horses out there, he has only put together a 2 race winning streak twice in his career. Rallied a bit too late in the Whitney.
3. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: If he can do well against the likes of Ron the Greek and Flat Out (who is the defending champ), then there is a chance he could be right there with the favorites on the first Saturday in November.
4. Alpha (Bernardini), McLaughlin: In a year where the 3yo's have been dropping like flies, this is one of the top 3 who is left. Winner of the Jim Dandy and co-winner of the Travers which was run in the fastest time since Street Sense in 2007. His lone downfall is that his out of New York record is pitiful with two up the track proformances at Churchill. However, that is the only other track he's been to other then the NYRA tracks. We'll see how good he is on Saturday in the PA Derby.
5. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno): The Woodward runner up has yet to finish out of the top 3 this year and has run 1 bad race and that was at Churchill where he lost to Successful Dan whose injured and Fort Larned who won a G1 in his last. That's pretty impressive, if Mike Smith stays on him for the Classic, watch out as he could be a very serious threat.
Others Considered
Dullahan (Even the Score): The Pacific Classic winner is 3 for 3 on a synthetic main track, his dirt runs haven't been aweful, but not as good as his synthetic. In all honestly, I wouldn't be suprised if he doesn't go to the BC this year and gets shut down for a DWC try next March.
Golden Ticket (Speightstown): The co-Travers winner hadn't run since May when he photoed with Alpha a few weeks ago in Saratoga. His previous 2 graded stakes trys wheren't fantastic, but he ran the race of his life on the 2nd to last Saturday of the meet.
To Honor and Serve (Bernardini): Honestly, I think he's more likely for the Dirt Mile then he is the Classic. With that being said, him coming under the radar might be a bad thing.
Flat Out (Flatter): Last year's buzz horse going into race off a solid work. This year he isn't coming into the Jockey Club Gold Cup as strong. However, now that he's in the Bill Mott barn and having 2 other Classic contenders, that could put him in a good spot.
Ladies Classic
1. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: This is possibly the toughest division as any of the five I list could win this race. It was not easy to put the defending champ on top, especially because she is coming off a lackluster second in the Personal Ensign. However, the 3 other horses that I was considering for this top spot I'm not really that confidante in. With that being said, we know she has heart and if it comes down to a duel to the wire, she might have a enough to pull it off. With no Havre de Grace in this year's Beldame, she is the horse to beat.
2. Questing (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: Everyone knows that I'm a huge fan of this girl's sire. However, in her last two races she has shown that she is the real deal when it comes front running. The biggest thing is that she does drift out in the stretch and swish her tail in disgust when she is hit with the whip. Kiaran has asked Irad Ortiz to keep it in his hand and only use it if he has to. She'll get a big challenge this weekend from My Miss Aurelia in the Cotillion.
3. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: If she had been 100% healthy the entire time, there would be no doubt about it she would be #1 over Royal Delta. I just can't put a horse whose run only 4 times since her Juvenile Fillies win in 2010. Sure all four times have been wins, including a G1, but her soundness issues scare me. If she keeps going forward however, she will be the horse to beat and honestly could even take Older Female Championship. She has to win though.
4. Include Me Out (Include), Ellis: Since she has stretched out her record is 4 wins and a second. 2 of those wins including a G1 have been at Santa Anita. She has beaten every single top Older Female in California and had she not been injured, potentially would have faced the top 3yo Filly in Cali Potesta in the Zenyatta (formally the Lady's Secret). If it comes down to a home course advantage, the East Coast girls could be in serious trouble.
5. It's Tricky (Mineshaft), McLaughlin: How loaded is Godolphin loaded this year? She was last year's LC runner up, and if Questing wins on Sat, she could be re-routed to the F/M Sprint which could be more of her liking. With that being said, she is here on her own merits. She was just a stumble away from being undefeated this year and 9 furlongs is prob. her max distance. I am a bit concerned though because she has not run well in the heat before (Florida) and in California it's going to be a bit warm. The other thing is she is a bit of a nutcase and might handle the crowd well. If she can beat Royal Delta in the Beldame, then she moves up big time.
Other Horses Considered:
My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike): The defending 2yo Champion Filly won in her return, but it wasn't as impressive to my eye as might have been to others. Her lugging in didn't help, but the distance of the Cotillion is to her advantage. We'll see what happens.
Love and Pride (A.P. Indy): The Personal Ensign winner got the advantage of a stumble from It's Tricky, but make no mistake about it had that not happened, she loses. Still since last October, she's been out of the top 3 only 2 times. She's out of a 1/2 sister to Bernardini so distance is not an issue for her. In matter of fact, she is prob. going to be the best bred horse in this year's LC field.
In Lingerie (Empire Maker): Prob. more of a synthetic specialist then dirt. However, she won the Black Eyed Susan in May, that was the same race that put Royal Delta on the map.
Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Her 1/2 sister Inglorious won the Queen's Plate last year, she took the Prince of Wales this year. Going in the Cotillion is a bold move, especially with just 3 other horses entered. However, if she where to win that may arch some eyebrows in Canada because all of a sudden she has a G1 win and the other boy beating filly up there Irish Mission finished fifth against Older in the Northern Dancer. Could upset the applecart big time.
Classic
1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: The winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup and runner up in the Pacific Classic. He won the Santa Anita Handicap last year, but he is getting a new rider for the Awesome Again (formally the Goodwood). Will that come back to haunt Bob and the rest his connections?
2. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: Last year, Bill surprised everyone when Drosselmeyer won the BC Classic. Ron has already won this year's Big Cap and won the Foster as well. Although he is one of the more consistent horses out there, he has only put together a 2 race winning streak twice in his career. Rallied a bit too late in the Whitney.
3. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: If he can do well against the likes of Ron the Greek and Flat Out (who is the defending champ), then there is a chance he could be right there with the favorites on the first Saturday in November.
4. Alpha (Bernardini), McLaughlin: In a year where the 3yo's have been dropping like flies, this is one of the top 3 who is left. Winner of the Jim Dandy and co-winner of the Travers which was run in the fastest time since Street Sense in 2007. His lone downfall is that his out of New York record is pitiful with two up the track proformances at Churchill. However, that is the only other track he's been to other then the NYRA tracks. We'll see how good he is on Saturday in the PA Derby.
5. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno): The Woodward runner up has yet to finish out of the top 3 this year and has run 1 bad race and that was at Churchill where he lost to Successful Dan whose injured and Fort Larned who won a G1 in his last. That's pretty impressive, if Mike Smith stays on him for the Classic, watch out as he could be a very serious threat.
Others Considered
Dullahan (Even the Score): The Pacific Classic winner is 3 for 3 on a synthetic main track, his dirt runs haven't been aweful, but not as good as his synthetic. In all honestly, I wouldn't be suprised if he doesn't go to the BC this year and gets shut down for a DWC try next March.
Golden Ticket (Speightstown): The co-Travers winner hadn't run since May when he photoed with Alpha a few weeks ago in Saratoga. His previous 2 graded stakes trys wheren't fantastic, but he ran the race of his life on the 2nd to last Saturday of the meet.
To Honor and Serve (Bernardini): Honestly, I think he's more likely for the Dirt Mile then he is the Classic. With that being said, him coming under the radar might be a bad thing.
Flat Out (Flatter): Last year's buzz horse going into race off a solid work. This year he isn't coming into the Jockey Club Gold Cup as strong. However, now that he's in the Bill Mott barn and having 2 other Classic contenders, that could put him in a good spot.
Ladies Classic
1. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: This is possibly the toughest division as any of the five I list could win this race. It was not easy to put the defending champ on top, especially because she is coming off a lackluster second in the Personal Ensign. However, the 3 other horses that I was considering for this top spot I'm not really that confidante in. With that being said, we know she has heart and if it comes down to a duel to the wire, she might have a enough to pull it off. With no Havre de Grace in this year's Beldame, she is the horse to beat.
2. Questing (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: Everyone knows that I'm a huge fan of this girl's sire. However, in her last two races she has shown that she is the real deal when it comes front running. The biggest thing is that she does drift out in the stretch and swish her tail in disgust when she is hit with the whip. Kiaran has asked Irad Ortiz to keep it in his hand and only use it if he has to. She'll get a big challenge this weekend from My Miss Aurelia in the Cotillion.
3. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: If she had been 100% healthy the entire time, there would be no doubt about it she would be #1 over Royal Delta. I just can't put a horse whose run only 4 times since her Juvenile Fillies win in 2010. Sure all four times have been wins, including a G1, but her soundness issues scare me. If she keeps going forward however, she will be the horse to beat and honestly could even take Older Female Championship. She has to win though.
4. Include Me Out (Include), Ellis: Since she has stretched out her record is 4 wins and a second. 2 of those wins including a G1 have been at Santa Anita. She has beaten every single top Older Female in California and had she not been injured, potentially would have faced the top 3yo Filly in Cali Potesta in the Zenyatta (formally the Lady's Secret). If it comes down to a home course advantage, the East Coast girls could be in serious trouble.
5. It's Tricky (Mineshaft), McLaughlin: How loaded is Godolphin loaded this year? She was last year's LC runner up, and if Questing wins on Sat, she could be re-routed to the F/M Sprint which could be more of her liking. With that being said, she is here on her own merits. She was just a stumble away from being undefeated this year and 9 furlongs is prob. her max distance. I am a bit concerned though because she has not run well in the heat before (Florida) and in California it's going to be a bit warm. The other thing is she is a bit of a nutcase and might handle the crowd well. If she can beat Royal Delta in the Beldame, then she moves up big time.
Other Horses Considered:
My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike): The defending 2yo Champion Filly won in her return, but it wasn't as impressive to my eye as might have been to others. Her lugging in didn't help, but the distance of the Cotillion is to her advantage. We'll see what happens.
Love and Pride (A.P. Indy): The Personal Ensign winner got the advantage of a stumble from It's Tricky, but make no mistake about it had that not happened, she loses. Still since last October, she's been out of the top 3 only 2 times. She's out of a 1/2 sister to Bernardini so distance is not an issue for her. In matter of fact, she is prob. going to be the best bred horse in this year's LC field.
In Lingerie (Empire Maker): Prob. more of a synthetic specialist then dirt. However, she won the Black Eyed Susan in May, that was the same race that put Royal Delta on the map.
Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Her 1/2 sister Inglorious won the Queen's Plate last year, she took the Prince of Wales this year. Going in the Cotillion is a bold move, especially with just 3 other horses entered. However, if she where to win that may arch some eyebrows in Canada because all of a sudden she has a G1 win and the other boy beating filly up there Irish Mission finished fifth against Older in the Northern Dancer. Could upset the applecart big time.
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