Tomorrow afternoon (evening in Dubai), 13 colts/geldings and 1 filly will enter the starting gate for the richest race in the world. Lets take a look at the field:
1. Master of Hounds (Kingmambo): The defending UAE Derby runner up has done well for his new Dubai connections. He's finished no less then 3rd as four year old at Meydan. While he's not new to the surface or distance, his post could be less then ideal being all the way in the inside. It will be interesting how he does here before returning to Europe for what is certainly to be an interesting Summer campaign.
2. Eishin Flash (JPN) (Kings Best): The Japanese have been through alot in the past year, last year's surprise win by Victore Pisa brought hope to the country after a devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown. This horse had been chasing Victore Pisa in 2010, and last year chased Buena Vista and in last race of the year Orfevre. This will be his synthetic debut, but his sire does help here in that he's a 1/2 brother to Urban Sea.
3. Zazou (GER) (Shamardal): A Group 1 winner in Italy, he won on synthetic in his last start. He's run well at this distance. His sire's dam is a full sister to DWC winner Street Cry.
4. So You Think (NZ) (High Chapparal (IRE)): Make no mistake, he is a very talented horse. The problem is, he tends to falter when it counts the most, in the big races. Having his trainer's son on his back might make a difference in possibly getting him the win.
5. Smart Falcon (JPN) (Gold Allure (JPN): The second of Japan's three pronged attack. He has dirt experience in Japan including defeating the third member of the Japanese contingent. His grandfather is the defending grandsire of this race (Neo Universe, the sire of Victore Pisa is also by Gold Allure's sire the great KY Derby winner Sunday Silence).
6. Planteur (IRE) (Danehill Dancer (IRE)): He's been chasing home the likes of Workforce and Behkabad. His last two races in France have been at a mile, but the distance change shouldn't be an issue with him winning at a mile and 3/8ths early last year defeating Sarafina.
7. Royal Delta (Empire Maker): The first of the two Americans in this year's edition. A runner up finish by Japan's To The Victory just behind Captain Steve (whose trainer I'll be talking about in a little bit) in 2001, is the best finish by a filly in this race. However, she has a few things that are in her favor. A good post, the surface (she's won on Keeneland's Polytrack), the distance (Alabama last year), and her trainer Bill Mott who of course won the inaugural edition with the legendary Cigar. Her first race though this year at Gulfstream wasn't fantastic. However, I wouldn't be too concerned as she started last year off horribly as well. Still, while it's a long way from home, the reports are that she is training well with UAE Derby entrant Lucky Chappy. A win here will put the pressure on the Older Female leaders Awesome Maria, Awesome Feather and the defending Horse of the Year Havre de Grace.
8. Monterosso (GB) (Dubwai (IRE)): The first of Godolphin's four entries. Since his start in the DWC last year, he's only started once and it was a fourth place finish behind his stablemate who is also entered in this race. His synthetic record is very good, and could surprise people here. His grandsire is the late great Dubai Millennium, 2000 winner of the DWC.
9. Silver Pond (FR) (Act One (GB)): Poor Silver Pond. In 6 of his last 7 races he's been beaten by several horses that he'll be facing here, plus Dunaden (Melbourne Cup winner), Sarafina and Danedream (Arc winner). He's coming off a runner up finish in his last race.
10. Transcend (JPN) (Wild Rush): The final member of the three pronged attack from the Far East. A half a length is what separated him from the winner's circle in last year's race. He's run 4 times since then including defending his Japan Cup Dirt title. Unlike last year though, he's not coming into this race off a win. He's also lost to Smart Falcon who is also in this race.
11. Capponi (IRE) (Medicean (GB)): The synthetic specialist of Godolphin's pronged attack. His turf record is okay, his synthetic record is remarkable. He would be coming into the race on a three win streak, if he wasn't DQ'ed in January. This could be Godolphin's best chance to win this year.
12. Prince Bishop (IRE) (Dubwai (IRE)): One of two geldings in the race, he is the weakest of the Godolphin foursome. However his jockey has won this race before, and knows his way around this track.
13. Mendip (Harlan's Holiday): The final Godolphin horse, and prob. the horse with the most to prove. He's talented, but much like So You Think can't always put it together on the big days. Although his sire was runner up in this race in 2003, his first try at the distance didn't go as well as planned.
14. Game On Dude (Awesome Again): Both of the Americans this year can make history. Of course Royal Delta becoming the first filly to win the race, and The Dude's rider Chantal Sutherland not only becoming the first female to ride in the race, but to win it as well. His trainer Bob Baffert has won the race twice with Silver Charm and Captain Steve. Other then two out of state races where he was ridden by two different jockeys, since March of last year, he and Sutherland have won 3 times (including the Big Cap) and finished second twice (including the BCC behind Chantal's ex-fiance Mike Smith and Drosselmeyer who had defeated him in the previous year's Belmont)). He has runner up finish on the synth (by a nose!) and a 4th place finish behind last year's Older Male Champ Acclamation. The 14 hole isn't ideal, but with his running style it might end up not mattering if he can get out the gates quickly and to the front.
So who wins? A local owned horse hasn't won since Invasor won in 2007, and a locally based horse hasn't won since Electrocutionist in 2006. That being said, Capponi is a horse who could change all of that. However, my pick for the 2012 Dubai World Cup is Royal Delta. I think she'll be able to sit off the pace, and if a speed duel happens could just waltz on by to make history. Capponi for second and Game On Dude for third.
Good luck to all the horses and may they return safe and sound!
