Tiara Crowning?

Hey all! Since I didn't post my Alabama preview last night, I thought I would do it today instead. Lets take a look at this year's field.

10th Race - Saratoga - Saturday, August 20th, 2011
STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. TVG Alabama S. (Grade 1). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. No nomination fee. $5,000 to pass the entry box. All starters will receive a $2,500 rebate. The purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers if there are six (6) or more starters. All starters to be guaranteed no less than $1,000. If only five (5) or less start the purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth and 4% to fifth. Any filly that competes in both the Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama will have their entry fee waived for the Alabama. 121 lbs. Trophies will be presented to the winning owner, trainer and jockey. Closed Saturday, August 6, 2011 with 25 Nominations. (05:45 PM) (6)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Royal Delta 3 F L 121 Lezcano Jose Mott William I.
2 Pinch Pie 3 F L 121 Velazquez John R. Dutrow Anthony W.
3 Plum Pretty 3 F L 121 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
4 It's Tricky 3 F L 121 Castro Eddie McLaughlin Kiaran P.
5 St. John's River 3 F L 121 Albarado Robby Leggio, Jr. Andrew
6 Inglorious 3 F L 121 Contreras Luis Carroll Josie

Really the only horse who has zero chance is Pinch Pie, and she might not even go (at this time of writing the changes have not come out yet). It's Tricky can become the first horse since Sky Beauty to win the Triple Tiara (however, she would be the first to win the Tiara with the Alabama being part of the series, it replaced the Mother Goose the past couple of years). Royal Delta will try to rebound from her disapointing effort in the CCAO. St. John's River will try to become the 4th DE Oaks winner in a row to win the Alabama. Plum Pretty ran her eyeballs out in the CCAO, only to get caught by It's Tricky. Inglorious is the only horse in this race who has run at the Alabama distance (which she won), but that was on Polytrack.

For the past 3 years, 2 winners have gone onto be 3yo Filly Champion (Proud Spell and Blind Luck). With the exception of 2 possibly three (Pinch Pie and Royal Delta, maybe you can throw St. John's River into the mix as well), the winner of this race will be the 3yo Filly Champion (Inglorious' Woodbine races already count since she has made several starts in the US already this year). So who am I going with? I think it will go Canada, Louisana and New York. I'm going with Inglorious to win the 2011 Alabama. St. John's River for second and It's Tricky for third. Will be a fun race!

Also on the dockett, the Del Mar Oaks. However, since Sarah's Secret who would have been my pick to spring the upset is reportly scratched due to an injury, I'm not going to preview the race. However, I'm going with co-winner of the American Oaks, Cambina with Summer Soiree finishing a good second.

Also it looks like America's favorite fillies will be taking on the boys in their next races. Blind Luck will be going in the Pacific Classic and Havre de Grace in the Woodward.