Hard to believe, but we are only a little bit over four months away from the Oaks and Derby. It will be interesting who will be the top dog going into the preps which begin in mid-Jan/Early Feb. However, here are my top 5 for now for both the Derby and the Oaks.
Derby
1. Hansen (Tapit): A huge win over Union Rags in the Juvenile, he came out of Turfway of all places to become the best thing since well... Hanson's "Umm Bop". My one concern is that Tapit's tend to get a very fast start, but tend to tail off quickly.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union): He got a bit of a crummy ride in the Juvenile, but showed that he could go a mile and a sixteenth. Not 100% sold that a mile and a quarter is his game, but we'll see what happens.
3. Liaison (Indian Charlie): Unlike the other IC colt that everyone was raving about last year and this year... this one has a bit of clout to him. His dam and granddam are both by Belmont winners (Victory Gallop and AP Indy), so the stamina is there. Of course he gets his speed from dad. That combo might be just enough to the finish line first. But then there is the soundness issue that Charlie has passed along, lets hope he stays that way.
4. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway): A horse who maybe a wiseguy choice come Derby day. He'll have a tough time this winter going against Liaison and others such as Hierro. Right now, he's the horse who I would love to see to win the Derby the most.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score): Unlike his brother who shall remain nameless, Dullahan has run well in the BC finishing a closing fourth. While he won't be a Champion in Canada like big brother was as a 2yo, he could still have a chance on something that he missed out on, an Eclipse Championship.
Others Considered: Gemologist, Sabercat, Souper Speedy, O'Prado Again, Hierro
Oaks
1. Grace Hall (Empire Maker): Could she help get her dad home if she wins the Oaks next year? Prob. not, but with Weemissfrankie injured and My Miss Aurelia getting some time off as well she vaults into the #1 spot. Runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies, she won the Spinaway then went back to her hometrack to win the Blue Hen before her race at Churchill. The 3yo Females in Florida could be the deepest in years, will be fun to see what happens.
2. Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Prob. a Woodbine Oaks contender more then Kentucky, but I'm putting her here anyway. Her 1/2 sister is this year's Oaks/Queen's Plate winner Inglorious, who herself is by Hennesy so really a mile and eighth shouldn't be a big problem with her since her dam has not had a problem throwing distance horses with sprinter/miler stallions.
3. Now I Know (Pure Prize): Coming from OK, might work to her advantange. However, that could also be an disadvantage because she will now have to face horses of better quality. She'll have to pick up her game if she wants to hang with the big girls.
4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun): Sure she was fifth in her US debut, but she's Group placed in England and she's remaining in the US to run as a 3yo. She's out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the stamina is there. She'll give Grace Hall some fits if they face off against each other.
5. On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken): We know she loves Churchill (2 for 2), and the Golden Rod has been a pretty good indicator on how well a horse does as a 3yo. The question is if she can get that extra sixteenth. I'm not sure on it, but alot of people didn't think Plum Pretty could either.
Others considered: Inny Minnie, Yvete Sangalo (MEX), Killer Graces, Disposablepleasure
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