I will be posting several posts on how much confidence I have in a horse winning the Kentucky Derby this year. This is something new that I am trying, and I'm not 100% sure how well this is going to go. For that reason, there might be many horses mentioned who could be lower or higher then they really should be. The horses are going in reverse order with the least amount of confidence to the most. For now, here are #'s 5-1!
5. Oxbow (Awesome Again): The second on the Lukas trainees, I will admit there are several reasons why he is this high even without winning a single prep race. The first is, he hails from an amazing family. Not only can he call a BCC winner AND runner up Uncles, but a cousin (or 3/4 brother since he is also by Awesome Again, but a different dam) is the one and only Paynter. The second reason is that it's been 25 years since Winning Colors won the Derby, the last filly to do so. Her trainer and jockey once again team up here. Keep in mind, this time last year Gary Stevens was getting to analyze the Derby for NBC. Now he has a chance to win his 4th Derby at the age of 50! If there is any concern I have about him is that he was 5th in the AR Derby, but I think he had a bit of a nightmarish trip in that race.
4. Java's War (War Pass): The Bluegrass winner who came last to first to win the race. Even though he's never won on dirt, he didn't run that horribly in the TB Derby (second to Verrazano) and honestly could improve the 2nd time on the Churchill surface (was 6th in the KYJC). What's interesting is that his pedigree is in a way mirrors Animal Kingdom's. By a champion who prob. was best at a mile out of a mare who won at a mile and a quarter abeit on grass. However what's impressive is that she did it against the boys and there is a ton of stamina influence on her side of the family.
3. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron): The Florida Derby runner up handed Shanghai Bobby his first defeat in the Holy Bull. He is a horse who in a way is flying under the radar with people looking at Verrazano and #1 on this list. The biggest concern though is the distance as his late sire faultered both times in big races at a mile and a quarter (06 Derby and 07 BCC).
2. Revolutionary (War Pass): If this comes down to a slugout, then this colt will win. He's a fighter who doesn't give up too easily. On paper, his races haven't been what you would normally say "impressive", but how he's finished is what makes it impressive. He does lose Javier Castellano to Normandy Invasion (which I think will come back and haunt him dearly) and WinStar fans picked Rosie Napravnik to possibly ride him. Instead he'll be ridden by newly announced Hall of Famer Calvin Borel who knows the track with the back of his hand. After all he like Stevens is going for his fourth Derby. (and to top it off, he has a great chance in the Oaks as well on Rose to Gold. If he wins both races, it would be the second time that he did it in the same year. The last time? Why in 2009 with Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra (a future Hall of Famer in her own right.))
1. Orb (Malibu Moon): With all of the new school goings in horse racing, the horse I have the most confidence in winning this year's Derby has old school connections. Not only are his co-owners and trainer looking for their first Derby win (24 years after the rivalry that was Sunday Silence and Easy Goer), but he has a very good female family. Two names stand out in Coroando's Quest who won the Travers (who can be found under his fourth dam Laugher) as well as the 2 time Champion and Hall of Famer Ruffian (found under his fifth dam Shenanigans). Like Revolutionary he does lose his jockey, but Joel Rosario knows him having been to the winners circle twice with him. Also he did win the Dubai World Cup this year, so the Derby would be another feather in his cap.
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