I will be posting several posts on how much confidence I have in a horse winning the Kentucky Derby this year. This is something new that I am trying, and I'm not 100% sure how well this is going to go. For that reason, there might be many horses mentioned who could be lower or higher then they really should be. The horses are going in reverse order with the least amount of confidence to the most. For now, here are #'s 15-11!
15. Palace Malice (Curlin): The first of what could be a record 6 starters for his trainer (whose former boss has some big shots himself this year). 2nd in the Bluegrass after being run down in the final yards, he was also third in the Risen Star. Sadly the winner of that race is now injured and the runner up like him ran poorly in the LA Derby. The good news? He's won on dirt, but that was in August of last year. Still... he goes into the Derby with more foundation then his dad did in 2007 (where he finished 3rd to Street Sense and Hard Spun finishing well ahead of the #17's dad).
14. Mylute (Midnight Lute): 2nd to #15's stablemate in the Louisiana Derby, he is a horse who has the looks to be a nice runner, but tends to do better on smaller tracks (bullrings) then larger. That being said, he did break his maiden at Arlington on their Polytrack. He gets a big upgrade in jockey though from Shaun Bridgemohan to Rosie Napravnik who was not chosen for the LA Derby winner after his jockey chose another horse.
13. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid): Runner up in the Risen Star, he then tanked in the Louisiana Derby by finishing 6th. After the defection of his stablemate Super Ninety Nine (who orginally was 12th on this list), he gets in via points. His full brother won the Peter Pan and was fourth in both the 09 Belmont and Travers. We'll see if he stays in though as there could be a horse who goes in the Derby if he wins this weekend's Derby Trial (Titletown Five).
12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union): The second of the Pletcher trainees on the list. The winner of the Arkansas Derby, he also won the Remesen which looked like a disaster of a race until the runner up had come back to finish second to yet another Pletcher trainee in the Wood. Even though he is by the defending Belmont winning sire and has a broodmare sire who ran against the likes of Cigar, his pedigree is very different from Union Rags' was. Meadow Breeze was a G1 winner, but that was at a sprinting distance and she lost when going longer. That being said, she did beat both Octave and Cash's Girl in that race and the both of them went onto graded wins at 3 (Octave having the unfortunate in being finishing right behind both Rags to Riches her stablemate and Dreaming in Anna in two big G1 races). The last thing is that his AR Derby final time was slow.
11. Charming Kitten (Kitten's Joy): I know three Pletcher trainees in this portion, but I told you Todd could have as many as 6 horses! This is the horse who has the most to prove though as he is the only one of the possible six (more then likely five) who has zero dirt experience. 3rd in the Bluegrass right behind his stablemate #15. A big reason why he is high on this list is that turf horses actually tend to do well in the Derby because of the distance. I would not be suprised if he is the Pletcher trainee who gets it done, BUT he is also in away the weakest of the five because of the no dirt experience. But hey that didn't bother Animal Kingdom one bit.
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