I will be posting several posts on how much confidence I have in a horse winning the Kentucky Derby this year. This is something new that I am trying, and I'm not 100% sure how well this is going to go. For that reason, there might be many horses mentioned who could be lower or higher then they really should be. The horses are going in reverse order with the least amount of confidence to the most. For now, here are #'s 10-6!
10. Lines of Battle (War Front): Now we are getting down to the nitty gritty and the 10 that I had posted in the last two posts are what you could say "pretenders". Now we are getting into the possible "contenders" for this year's race. In theory, even without dirt experience LOB should be okay. He has the classic miler over stamina pedigree. So why is he so low? For one Ryan Moore will be riding him, nothing wrong with that except that he is based in Europe and finished last on Daddy Long Legs last year. Secondly, I don't think he is even the best possible candidate for the Derby with the BC JT winner last year also having a dirt friendly pedigree (but it looks like he is heading to the 2000 Guineas instead). However, the biggest issue? Dubai. The UAE Derby has not been a good race for horses to feed into the Derby. The good news is he hails from the same family as Dynaformer (sired a Derby winner) and Offlee Wild (defeated a Derby winner several times). As long as he doesn't get the #1 hole, he'll be fine.
9. Normandy Invasion (Tapit): I am ready to take on the angry mob for putting a FHF horse this low. But you can go ahead and put you're pitchforks away now. Yes his owner has been second two times since 2007, but Hard Spun and Eight Belles where AMAZING horses. This horse I feel is not as great as many people make him out to be. Sure he was second in the Wood, but I have the winner of that race in a spot I don't think anyone could expect. Also the Risen Star could turn out to be a crummy race depending on where several other Derby contenders finish. Of course people thought the same about Hard Spun and Eight Belles in 07 and 08 respectively and it took extra-ordinary horses (Street Sense and Big Brown) to defeat them. His trainer's mentor never won this race, can he win it Bobby's honor?
8. Goldencents (Into Mischief): He has the defending trainer, his jockey is trying to make history, as well as his co-owner won a National Championship with Louisville AND is going into the Basketball Hall of Fame this summer. Yes Team Goldencents is living a charmed life right now. He's already outraced his pedigree by winning the SA Derby. The question is, how much further will he be able to go. So why is he much higher then Vyjack? His broodmare sire won the Peter Pan and is by a Derby runner up.
7. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song): Ladies and Gentleman D. Wayne Lukas is back! Not only does the only trainer to win all three Triple Crown races in the same year with 2 different horses have one horse, he has TWO horses who have big chances. This is the first of the two of them. The winner of the Rebel, he did run poorly at Churchill in the Fall. However, I'm more concerned that he'll be too fresh for the race as he skipped the final major preps after his Rebel win. His dam's first foal finished 19th in last year's edition, but that IMO was a much tougher race then this years.
6. Verrazano (More Than Ready): And this is where the other shoe drops. Not only am I not a big fan of the possible morning favorite, I honestly would not be suprised if he finishes up track. Why so, well his brother last year finished 13th in the race. However the biggest thing is that no horse since Apollo has won the Derby without racing at 2. Guess who didn't? It also hasn't helped that the Wood winner has not won the Derby since 2000 and the race hasn't produced a Derby champ since 2003. If there are any positives it's that he has Johnny V on his back, but he is currently rehabbing from an injury and won't be back till sometime next week.
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