We are starting to getting down to the nitty gritty for the Breeders' Cup. This Friday will be 7 weeks (including November 2nd which is Day 1 of the 2 day event. From now until the week before the BC, I will have rankings for the 3yo+ catagories only except for the Marathon. For me, there won't be enough information for me to look at the Juvenile races until I look at the pedigrees of the horses to see who can go 2 turns and with the Marathon there maybe some Euros who while not their best surface might have the edge distance wise. That being said, when I do my big two day preview the Weds and Thurs before the races are run, I will be previewing those races. Today only I will be doing the Classic and Ladies Classic, but starting next week will be doing the other divisions.
Classic
1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: The winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup and runner up in the Pacific Classic. He won the Santa Anita Handicap last year, but he is getting a new rider for the Awesome Again (formally the Goodwood). Will that come back to haunt Bob and the rest his connections?
2. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: Last year, Bill surprised everyone when Drosselmeyer won the BC Classic. Ron has already won this year's Big Cap and won the Foster as well. Although he is one of the more consistent horses out there, he has only put together a 2 race winning streak twice in his career. Rallied a bit too late in the Whitney.
3. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: If he can do well against the likes of Ron the Greek and Flat Out (who is the defending champ), then there is a chance he could be right there with the favorites on the first Saturday in November.
4. Alpha (Bernardini), McLaughlin: In a year where the 3yo's have been dropping like flies, this is one of the top 3 who is left. Winner of the Jim Dandy and co-winner of the Travers which was run in the fastest time since Street Sense in 2007. His lone downfall is that his out of New York record is pitiful with two up the track proformances at Churchill. However, that is the only other track he's been to other then the NYRA tracks. We'll see how good he is on Saturday in the PA Derby.
5. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno): The Woodward runner up has yet to finish out of the top 3 this year and has run 1 bad race and that was at Churchill where he lost to Successful Dan whose injured and Fort Larned who won a G1 in his last. That's pretty impressive, if Mike Smith stays on him for the Classic, watch out as he could be a very serious threat.
Others Considered
Dullahan (Even the Score): The Pacific Classic winner is 3 for 3 on a synthetic main track, his dirt runs haven't been aweful, but not as good as his synthetic. In all honestly, I wouldn't be suprised if he doesn't go to the BC this year and gets shut down for a DWC try next March.
Golden Ticket (Speightstown): The co-Travers winner hadn't run since May when he photoed with Alpha a few weeks ago in Saratoga. His previous 2 graded stakes trys wheren't fantastic, but he ran the race of his life on the 2nd to last Saturday of the meet.
To Honor and Serve (Bernardini): Honestly, I think he's more likely for the Dirt Mile then he is the Classic. With that being said, him coming under the radar might be a bad thing.
Flat Out (Flatter): Last year's buzz horse going into race off a solid work. This year he isn't coming into the Jockey Club Gold Cup as strong. However, now that he's in the Bill Mott barn and having 2 other Classic contenders, that could put him in a good spot.
Ladies Classic
1. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: This is possibly the toughest division as any of the five I list could win this race. It was not easy to put the defending champ on top, especially because she is coming off a lackluster second in the Personal Ensign. However, the 3 other horses that I was considering for this top spot I'm not really that confidante in. With that being said, we know she has heart and if it comes down to a duel to the wire, she might have a enough to pull it off. With no Havre de Grace in this year's Beldame, she is the horse to beat.
2. Questing (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: Everyone knows that I'm a huge fan of this girl's sire. However, in her last two races she has shown that she is the real deal when it comes front running. The biggest thing is that she does drift out in the stretch and swish her tail in disgust when she is hit with the whip. Kiaran has asked Irad Ortiz to keep it in his hand and only use it if he has to. She'll get a big challenge this weekend from My Miss Aurelia in the Cotillion.
3. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: If she had been 100% healthy the entire time, there would be no doubt about it she would be #1 over Royal Delta. I just can't put a horse whose run only 4 times since her Juvenile Fillies win in 2010. Sure all four times have been wins, including a G1, but her soundness issues scare me. If she keeps going forward however, she will be the horse to beat and honestly could even take Older Female Championship. She has to win though.
4. Include Me Out (Include), Ellis: Since she has stretched out her record is 4 wins and a second. 2 of those wins including a G1 have been at Santa Anita. She has beaten every single top Older Female in California and had she not been injured, potentially would have faced the top 3yo Filly in Cali Potesta in the Zenyatta (formally the Lady's Secret). If it comes down to a home course advantage, the East Coast girls could be in serious trouble.
5. It's Tricky (Mineshaft), McLaughlin: How loaded is Godolphin loaded this year? She was last year's LC runner up, and if Questing wins on Sat, she could be re-routed to the F/M Sprint which could be more of her liking. With that being said, she is here on her own merits. She was just a stumble away from being undefeated this year and 9 furlongs is prob. her max distance. I am a bit concerned though because she has not run well in the heat before (Florida) and in California it's going to be a bit warm. The other thing is she is a bit of a nutcase and might handle the crowd well. If she can beat Royal Delta in the Beldame, then she moves up big time.
Other Horses Considered:
My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike): The defending 2yo Champion Filly won in her return, but it wasn't as impressive to my eye as might have been to others. Her lugging in didn't help, but the distance of the Cotillion is to her advantage. We'll see what happens.
Love and Pride (A.P. Indy): The Personal Ensign winner got the advantage of a stumble from It's Tricky, but make no mistake about it had that not happened, she loses. Still since last October, she's been out of the top 3 only 2 times. She's out of a 1/2 sister to Bernardini so distance is not an issue for her. In matter of fact, she is prob. going to be the best bred horse in this year's LC field.
In Lingerie (Empire Maker): Prob. more of a synthetic specialist then dirt. However, she won the Black Eyed Susan in May, that was the same race that put Royal Delta on the map.
Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Her 1/2 sister Inglorious won the Queen's Plate last year, she took the Prince of Wales this year. Going in the Cotillion is a bold move, especially with just 3 other horses entered. However, if she where to win that may arch some eyebrows in Canada because all of a sudden she has a G1 win and the other boy beating filly up there Irish Mission finished fifth against Older in the Northern Dancer. Could upset the applecart big time.
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