BC Rankings: Week 4

Hi everyone! Another weekend of racing is over and this week I can announce that all of the divisions that I said I would be ranking will now be included (except for the Dirt Mile which for length reasons I will be dropping from this year's Ranking. Sorry all!). I'm also going to change the order a bit and the Classic will be the last one listed. Click after the jump to read more!





Ladies Classic

1. Royal Delta (Empire Maker), Mott: Well that rumor from last week about her going to the Classic instead of the Ladies Classic, turned out to be false. Even though many people think Awesome Feather will win the race, this is still the defending champ. If anyone is going to win, they are going to have to take it away from her. The question is, did she run her race in the Beldame?

2. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course), Brown: While in reality Royal Delta and Awesome Feather could be 1 and 1a respectively, I still have some question marks about her. Yes she beat Love and Pride, but that was before she had won 3 graded stakes races (with of course the past two being G1's). Of course she's also not the soundest horse in the world, which to me is a bit of a red flag. This is a very deep field where possibly any of the horses in the race realisticly has a chance to win.

3. Love and Pride (A.P. Indy), Pletcher: Grandma Cara Rafela game up just short in the Juvenile Fillies to My Flag, Uncle Bernardini came up just short in the Classic to Invasor. Can she break the family BC Curse? The biggest thing she has over the East Coast horses is that she has a win over the surface. The downside is that she will have company on the front end in the LC, will that end up costing her?

4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun), McLaughlin: The more I think about it, the more that I'm actually liking her chances against the Older Fillies. I sadly still don't think she'll win, but she could very well be the highest placed 3yo.

5. My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike), Asmussen: Even though training and racing over the surface are two completly different things, it was prob. a smart idea to bring her out early as the SA track tends to be speed favoring.

Others Considered

Include Me Out (Include)- The best of the West has to offer. She could suprise the East Coasters with a very good showing in the race.

In Lingrie (Empire Maker)- There is a very good chance that she goes to the turf instead. Even with that being said, she did well this year vs Questing and won the Spinster yesterday. Of course that was on Poly where she is 3 for 3.

Grace Hall (Empire Maker) It's been an up and down year for the horse that everyone thought would be leading the pack for 3yo's. Won the Gulf Oaks, lost the KY Oaks, won the DE Oaks, lost the Alabama. On Saturday she returned to the winner's circle in the Indiana Oaks.

Filly and Mare Turf

1. Marketing Mix (Medaglia d'Oro), Procter: The way she won Super Saturday was very impressive. Unlike the Male turf division which for once actually has some depth, this is a bit cut and dry with her being the best in the US.

2. The Fugue (GB) (Dansili (GB)), Gosden: Even though she is a European, her connections actually have ties to the US. Her trainer John Gosden spent some time in California, and her owner Andrew Lloyd-Weber is a legend for his Broadway Musicals. Heck even her dad's family has Californian connections thanks to the training of Bobby Frankel. She was second to Shereta in the Yorkshire Oaks, but that filly lost pretty badly in yesterday's Arc. Euro's tend to do very well in California thanks to the firm ground, she could be part of a big weekend when it comes to that.

3. Nahrain (GB) (Selkirk), Varian: Last year's runner up just outnosed Zagora in the Flower Bowl. With Snow Fairy out and as far as I know no Godolphin horses coming, there is a very good chance that she will be reunited with Frankie Dettori for the race.

4. Zagora (FR) (Green Tune), Brown: Just got pipped at the wire by Nahrain in her last. Track record setter up at Saratoga.

5. Stephanie's Kitten (Kitten's Joy), Catalano: The 3yo Fillies on the turf in the US haven't as solid as year's past. However, I think pedigree wise she's a little bit better then Lady of Shamrock. Last year she became her sire's first BC stakes winner and avenged his loss in the Turf in 2004.

Others Considered

Lady of Shamrock (Scat Daddy)- Missing the Yellow Ribbon hurt then help, still the best 3yo Filly on the West Coast.

Tapitsfly (Tapit)- Because of the configureation of SA, I believe the F/M Turf is actually a little bit longer then it has been the past few years. Not sure if she can go that far although she has regained some of her form that got her the win the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Mile

1. Wise Dan (Wiseman's Ferry), Lopresti: Although he is very possible could be pointed to the Classic (where I will have him listed in Others Considered), he is the US' best chance to win a turf race. His running style and how professionally he wins he should love the Santa Anita surface.

2. Excelebration (IRE) (Exceed and Excel (AUS)), O'Brien: Believe it or not, he is Europe's #2 miler. With Frankel not coming though, he is basically the defacto top miler. Rebounded from Frankel beating after Frankel beating by winning a Group 1 in France over Frankel's ownershipmate Cityscape who was third in the Woodbine Mile.

3. Obviously (IRE) (Choisir (AUS)), Mitchell: His last two races where gate to wire, with breaking a track record at Del Mar and just holding off Japan's Trailblazer on Saturday. A very talented gelding who has shown that he has what it takes to take on the Euro's and East Coasters.

4. Moonlight Cloud (GB) (Invisiable Spirit (IRE)): British bred, French based, US owner. The same trainer that brought you Goldikova, this filly beat Farahh, another horse who was throttled by Frankel in past races. She is also the horse whose been the closest in defeating the wonder from down under Black Caviar.

5. Mr. Commons (Artie Schiller), Shirreffs: He has done nothing, but shown up all year. Has been defeated by Obviously in his last two races, but he is not a horse to be messed with. Who knows, he could easily pull off the upset like dad did in 2005.

Others Considered

King David (Hat Trick (JPN))- Yes the Jamaica was an odd race, yes I'm not a firm believer in Beyer Speed Figures, but he did run a 106. That's pretty impressive for a horse was claimed in August for $25,000.

Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux (BRZ))- Maybe it's because I'm not a fan of his, but last year's Derby champ seems to be going into the deep end a bit with coming here. It doesn't help that he is not the soundest either. With that being said, he did win an allowance earlier this year on the grass, so it's a smart move to stay on here.

Little Mike (Spanish Steps)- A mile and a quarter is prob. farther then he wants to go. Shouldn't be taken lately though as he did defeat some pretty good horses in the Arlington Million.

Sprint

1. Coil (Point Given), Baffert: Even though he was supposed to be going to the Dirt Mile, the way he finished in the SA Sprint Championship to defeat Amazombie was pretty impressive. There are very few horses who have won G1 races at six furlongs and nine furlongs (Haskell last year), he joined that company today.

2. Emcee (Unbridled's Song), McLaughlin: It's going to be a very interesting race. I think this could be a race where a shocker could happen. Of course if he where to win, then it wouldn't be.

3. Capital Account (Closing Arguement), Baffert: Blossomed over the summer on the poly and was a good second against his stablemate on Saturday. He's prob. better on poly, but worth a shot here.

4. Amazombie (Northern Afleet), Spawr: Not sure what happend on Saturday to him, but finishing 4th is not going to help him at all for his defence. Then again, Midnight Lute was awful in his lone race before he won the BC Sprint again. I just think this time it would be more of a suprise.

5. Caixa Eletronica (Arromanches), Pletcher: Possibly the most versitle horse running currently, if he focused on one division he possibly could be one of the best out there.

Others Considered

Poseidon's Warrior (Speightstown)- 3rd in the Vosburgh, he'll try to become the second BC race winner from Parx to win in 2 years.

The Lumber Guy (Grand Slam)- Vosburgh winner has found his niche in sprinting, but might be up against it if he goes in the race.

Filly and Mare Sprint

1. Groupie Doll (Bowman's Band), Bradley: Of all the divisions that I'm doing rankings for, this is the one that I am the most confident in. Not only has she beaten the best the East Coast sprinting fillies has to offer, she's done it in style. In Saturday's final prep for the BC, she showed her class in a big way. Even if she loses the race, she's the only one who has locked up the Eclipse in her division and has stated her case for Horse of the Year. Shame she's not going into the Sprint as I think she would have a big chance there.

2. Dust and Diamonds (Vindication), Asmussen: Do not sleep on her, if Groupie Doll faulters she could be the one to get the hardware in the end. Super talented, has not done much wrong in her career.

3. Contested (Ghostzapper), Baffert: With Emma's Encore quickly going in the wrong direction, this is the top 3yo female sprinter in the country. The question is, will she be good enough to beat Groupie Doll.

4. Rumor (Indian Charlie), Mandella: A filly that got some buzz at the beginning of her career, then cooled off for awhile. However, she won yesterday in the LA Woman, although she beat only 3 other fillies. However, one of them was the previously undefeated Winding Way.

5. Judy the Beauty (Ghostzapper), Ward: Although winless this year, 2nd in her last two have been graded stakes races. Who knows, she might pull it together enough to pull off the shocker.

Others Considered

Switch (Quiet American)- Although her best days are behind her, when it comes to Breeders' Cup time, she always shines.

It's Tricky (Mineshaft)- I hope this is where Godolphin puts her. She has a big chance if she comes.

Off all together:

Winding Way (Malibu Moon)- really never took to dirt.

Turf

1. Point of Entry (Dynaformer), McGaughey: The Breeders' Cup has been a blessing a nightmare for Shug and the Phipps family. A win in the Distaff with Personal Ensign and runner up in Classic with Easy Goer, the latest history has been filled with a broken heart. If Point of Entry can become the first US based horse since English Channel to win the race, expect some tears to flow in the Winners' Circle. Big sister Pine Island broke down and was euthanized in the 2006 Distaff, had she won she would have been 3yo Female Champion.

2. Trailblazer (JPN) (Zenno Rob Roy (JPN)), Ikee: 2nd going shorter then he's been going over track he's never been on is pretty impressive. Unfortnally like how the US starts in Japan haven't been very sucessful lately, the same can be said for the Japansese starters in the US. With that being said, his connections came up just short in the Arc and with the horse who won the race coming, they might come here just for some redemption. Don't be suprised if he goes in the Mile instead.

3. Solemia (IRE) (Poliglote (GB)), Laffon-Parias: It's not like she was having a horrible year, but just not the type that screams Arc winner. What helped her was the less then ideal conditions and the fact that only Ofvere the runner up was the only favorite who really fired yesterday. Her owners are French, but have a US string (in matter of fact, her female family spent sometime in the US) and are not afraid to travel for the Breeders' Cup. The downside of her winning the Arc is that the record for winners is awful. Dylan Thomas, the last horse to participate in the BC after winning the Arc finished 5th in 2007. Although that was under less then ideal conditions as well.

4. St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) (Montjeu (IRE)), O'Brien: The year started so promising for him, but the last 3 races where against Frankel, Snow Fairy and the Arc. Still, if the Euro's win a race, this is going to be the one they get.

5. Slim Shadey (GB) (Val Royal (FR)), Callaghan: Had a great winter after coming over from Europe, an okay summer and got his fall off well with a bang. His worst race was against Acclamation, but he's out for the year and he was able to turn the tables on Turbo Compressor. Just not sure he's good as the top 4 when BC Saturday will roll around.

Others Considered

Turbo Compressor (Halo's Image)- Although he's a G1 winner this year, his worst races where against quality company. Although he was second to Slim Shadey in his last race.

Treasure Beach (GB) (Galileo (IRE))- Has always done well in the US, rebounded from a bad Arlington Million to finish second to Point of Entry at Belmont on Super Saturday. He didn't run in the Arc this year, so he should be more fresh for the race.

Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer)- Winless this year, but somehow always there at the end. Could make believers out of sceptics if he runs well at Santa Anita. That is if he goes.

Classic

1. Game On Dude (Awesome Again), Baffert: Firing on all cylindars right now and on his hometrack. This should be a fun race even without a horse like Royal Delta to spice things up.

2. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno), Ritvo: His jockey has been critized by others and himself for early moves. Honestly he puts too much pressure on himself, just ride the race and if he wins great, if not? Then that's okay too.

3. Ron the Greek (Full Mandate), Mott: Everyone is going to ignore him off his poor loss in the JCGC. I personally think is that last thing you want to do for a Mott horse. They will fire when you least expect it.

4. Fort Larned (E Dubai), Wilkes: The 2008 a member of his sire's female family won the Classic (Raven's Pass). Although that was on synthetic and this is on dirt. Still, he has a big chance when you think about it.

5. Richard's Kid (Lemon Drop Kid), O'Neill: Trainer suprised everyone when I'll Have Another won the Derby and Preakness. Can he do the same thing with an already made horse? Possibly, but Richard's new connections are not the most popular in the world.

Others Considered

Dullahan (Even the Score): It looked like that he finally turned a corner, then he threw in a clunker on Saturday. He really is turning out to be an enigma (abeit a tiny bit better) like big brother was.

Flat Out (Flatter): He has to prove that he is more then just a Belmont lover. In matter of fact, he doesn't have to be the shining star BC week in order to do well on Saturday.

Stay Thirsty (Bernardini): Unforntally California has not been kind to 2006 Classic runner up foals. The good news maybe he could be the one to break it.