May 18, 2012

Preakness Preview

So here we are less then 24 hours away from this year's Preakness. Who will wear the Black Eyed Susans? Lets take a look at this year's field

PP
Horse
Jockey
Age/
Sex
Weight
Trainer
Morning Line
Comments
1 Tiger Walk R A Dominguez 3/C 126 I Correas IV 30/1 4th in the Wood Memorial. Buzzy horse, has a Preakness runner up knows the Pimlico surface well on his back. Gets blinkers.

2 Teeth of the Dog J Bravo 3/C 126 M R Matz 15/1

3rd in the Wood Memorial. Neither the winner of that race or the runner up ran well at Churchill. Pimlico owes his trainer. 
3 Pretension J Santiago 3/C 126 C W Grove 30/1 Won the Caronero II which is the local prep. 9th in the IL Derby before that. Locals haven't had the best of luck in this race recently.

4 Zetterholm J Alvarado 3/C 126 R E Dutrow Jr. 20/1

3 for 4 this year including winning the Patsyprospect last time out. It will take quite a bit for him to defeat these horses.

5 Went the Day Well J R Velazquez 3/C 126 H G Motion 6/1

Was a closing 4th in the Derby. Connections where a heartbreaking second in last year's race to Shackleford. A big chance.
6 Creative Cause J Rosario 3/C 126 M Harrington 6/1

5th in the Derby after a horrible trip. However, does he have the heart to cross the wire first in a big race.
7 Bodemeister M E Smith 3/C 126 B Baffert 8/5 Lead basically all the way in the Derby to finish a solid second. He'll be on the lead again, but how much did he leave at Churchill.

8 Daddy Nose Best J R Leparoux 3/C 126 S M Asmussen 12/1

10th in the Derby, was a very buzzy horse before the race before faltering. Regains jockey who rode him in his Sunland Derby win.

9 I'll Have Another M Gutierrez 3/C 126 D F O'Neill 5/2 The Derby winner, post position is good. Jockey won 2 races yesterday at Pimlico to get acquainted with the surface. The question is, will the pace be fast enough for him? He won't get the perfect trip that he got last time. 
10 Optimizer C S Nakatani 3/C 126 D W Lukas 30/1

Has absolutely no business to be in this race after finishing 11th in the Derby. However, it's Lukas, so I really shouldn't be surprised should I.

11 Cozzetti J Lezcano 3/C 126 D L Romans 30/1 The defending trainer is back. 4th in the AR Derby behind Bode. In the top three only twice of seven career starts.


Who will win? Well new shooters don't have the greatest luck with only 3 newcomers since 2000 winning (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra). Of the new shooters, I think only Tiger Walk has a chance, and his post isn't great, plus a last minute jockey change (because Kent D. failed an breathalyzer today at Belmont). Went the Day Well's connections are surely chomping at the big after last year's heartbreaking loss. Still, I think it's between Bodemeister and I'll Have Another, with Went the Day Well possibly getting in the mix as well. Not sure what to think of Creative Cause who maybe a brilliant horse espcially because unlike the two other Californians in this race, he went home. In the end I think I'll Have Another is a good horse, but not 100% sure he's good enough to take the Triple Crown. My pick for this year's Preakness is I'll Have Another. Yeah, I know I tried to find a horse who could beat him, but I think Bode might have left it all at Churchill, Went the Day Well seems to me being a bit of an up and down horse, but I have him as my runner up. Bode for third and Creative Cause for fourth. 

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