Horse of the Year Candidates

With the Breeders' Cup now less then 2 weeks away, lets take a look at the horses who will be in the drivers seat to succeed Wise Dan as Horse of the Year.


Shared Belief (Candy Ride (ARG))

What does he have to do?: Win the Classic or finish ahead of Tonalist, California Chrome and Bayern

Can he do it?: Yes, he already has a win at the Classic distance and he has 2 big wins on dirt.

Why he won't do it?: The three years rule this division and he is far from the only one in the field. In fact, there are 3 other horses who have HOY chances who are 3 and will be in this field. Also there might be an older horse who may surprise people.

Main Sequence (Aldebaran)

What does he have to do?: Win the Turf and hope either Shared Belief, Tonalist, Bayern and California Chrome do not win the Classic.

Can he do it?: Of the 5 horses who have HOY title hopes, he has the one who has the biggest hill the climb. That being said he is 3 for 3 in the US, still the Euro's will be very tough and he could get a stiff challenge on the home front.

Why he won't do it?: He is possibly going to be in the second most anticipated race (other then Classic) on the weekend. Arc runner up Flintshire is expected to come as is the defending champ Magician. For the Americans it will likely be lead by Arlington Million winner Hardest Core, Twilight Eclipse and Imagining.

Tonalist (Tapit)

What does he have to do?: Win the Classic or hope for an upset and finish ahead of Shared Belief, Bayern and California Chrome.

Can he do it?: Even though he won both the Belmont and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I'm not 100% sold he can win outside of Belmont at this point (although he did break his maiden earlier this year at Gulfstream).

Why he won't do it?: The Cali 3yo's are peaking at the right time.

Bayern (Oflee Wild)

What does he have to do?: Win the Classic and hope Main Sequence loses the Turf

Can he do it?: As long has he gets a loose lead. I think he gets pressed in anyway it will help him wilt quicker. Beware of the closers if that is the case.

Why he won't do it?: Moreno (if he goes) will press him early on.

California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit)

What does he have to do?: Win the Classic or finish ahead Tonalist, Bayern, Shared Belief and hope Main Sequence loses the Turf

Can he do it?: If you had asked me in May I might have actually said yes. However, it seems that he has peaked and is starting to decline quite a bit. Sure he might have needed a race in the PA Derby, but he just didn't seem to be in it. He has the second biggest hill to climb with who is pointing towards the race.

Why he won't do it?: For the things I said above and the fact that Shared Belief looks to be the better horse at this point.