January 8, 2014

Eclipse Finalist Breakdown

Now that the finalists have been announced lets take a look at the horses and humans who will be up for the 2013 Eclipse Awards.


2yo Female: Chriselliam (IRE), Ria Antonia, She’s a Tiger

Chriselliam made the US fillies look silly in the JFT and She's a Tiger crossed the wire first in the JF before being dq'ed handing the title to Ria Antonia. She's a Tiger should win, but don't be surprised if Chriselliam takes some votes away.

2yo Male: Havana, New Year’s Day, Shared Belief

New Year's Day had one stakes start and that was a win. However, he might have lost votes for the announcement of his retirement before the deadline. Shared Belief seems to be the hot horse after doing well on synthetic in the fall and winter. Havana won the Champagne before finishing second in the Juvy. I think NYD may have enough votes, but SB prob will win.

3yo Female: Beholder, Princess of Sylmar and Close Hatches

Of the horse categories this is going to be the toughest. Princess won the Oaks, but Beholder turned the tables in the Distaff. Close Hatches is in a good spot as her legendary stablemate is now retired. Had Princess skipped the BC like they had planned, she prob wins this, but I like Beholder to win now in a very close vote. This is one that could go either way.

3yo Male: Orb, Palace Malice, Will Take Charge

Even though WTC will win this by a comfortable margin, it's who is missing that is shocking. Goldencents won the SA Derby and the Dirt Mile, but didn't get enough votes to be in the top 3. Orb had a great late Winter and Spring, Palace Malice had a great late Spring and Summer, but WTC was the only one who won a stakes race in the Spring, Summer and Fall. Add on his runner up finish in the Classic to that.

Older Female: Joyful Victory, Royal Delta, Tiz Miz Sue

This was the best case senerio for Delta. Joyful 's G1 win was in the Winter, Tiz's was in her career finale. The legend will take her final Eclipse by a comfortable margin now. Either way I'm so happy I've seen 2 of the 3 of these horses in person.

Older Male: Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man, Wise Dan

Poor Dude, going against 2 BC winners and even with his great season it won't be enough to get an Eclipse. This was the worst case senerio for W. Dan. MMM should take this off his 2 G1's at the end of the year. It's not how he started the year, it's how he finished it.

Female Grass: Dank, Laughing, Mizdirection

RIP Laughing who passed away this week from colic surgery. Dank destroyed the fields both times in the States. Mizdirection who defeated the boys in the Turf Sprint again has a better chance in her other category.

Male Grass: Magician, Point of Entry, Wise Dan
W. Dan should win this as he was undefeated on the turf (and had the Shadwell not come off he prob. would have won that too), however Magician beat a good field in the Turf and had POE not been injured he would have been cleaning up the distance races.

Female Sprinter: Dance to Bristol, Groupie Doll, Mizdirection

Bristol's connections should be honored to be a finalist after the great Spring and Summer she had. However Doll and Miz are veterans of this division. Even though she didn't have the greatest year, Doll should win, but if there is any year for a turf sprinter to do it this might be the year.

Male Sprinter: Points Offthebench, Sahara Sky, Secret Circle

Sahara Sky didn't run past May, Secret Circle won the Sprint off an allowance which was over a year after he had last run. Points Offthebench passed away before the Sprint, but he grabbed 2 G1 wins. If he wins, he will join Prairie Bayou, Swale and Go For Wand as horses who won an Eclipse after passing away.

Steeplechase: Divine Fortune, Gustavian, Italian Wedding

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App. Jockey: Victor Carrasco, Manuel Franco, Edgard Zayas

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Jockey: Gary Stevens, Javier Castellano, Joel Rosario

This usally goes to the jockey who leads the nation in wins which is Javier in which he also broke the earnings mark. However, Joel won both the Dubai World Cup and Kentucky Derby. Even with those accomplishments, coming off a 7 year retirement at 50 is amazing. All Gary did this year was win the Preakness, finish 2nd in the Belmont, win the Distaff and Classic. A second snub here is Mike Smith who had just as good season as Gary and picked up the best jockey award at the BC. It was def a jockeys year as injuries plagued regular finalist Johnny V, and ended the career of Ramon Dominguez both who otherwise might have been on this finalist list.

Trainer: Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher

The Bob nomination is very contraversial after 7 deaths and an investigation. Bill of course had Royal Delta and her replacement Close Hatches could be just as good. When it was announced that D. Wayne Lukas was getting basically the equivilent of a Lifetime Achievement Award, it basically opened the door for someone to take his spot on the Finalists list. Which is a shame because he had his best year in a long time thanks to Will Take Charge and Oxbow's wins. His former asst. Todd should win this award again.

Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Juddmonte, Midwest Thoroughbreds

Sure the BC didn't go their way, but the Ramseys had a good year with the Kitten's.

Breeder: Adena, Morton Fink, Ken and Sarah Ramsey

Adena owns this category, but didn't win last year, Fink has the Dans, but the Ramseys with the Kittens get it done again.

HOY: Mucho Macho Man, Will Take Charge, Wise Dan

After the BC, I had posted that I thought that Wise Dan was going to be HOY. I still felt that way until the finalists where announced. The only one who I think has no chance is Will Take Charge on the count on one of his 2 G1 wins was restricted to 3yo's. Mucho Macho Man really didn't get going until the end of the year. If look at the entire year then yes Wise Dan is your choice, but a Classic winner has not won Horse of the Year since 2007 when Curlin took home both titles (he finished 4th in his HOY defense season, Rachel took it home in 2009, Z in 2010, Grace in 2011 and W. Dan last year). For that reason I think MMM gets it done. However if W. Dan wins which is my gut feeling anyway it wouldn't be all that suprising either. 

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