June 6, 2013

Belmont and Undercard Preview

  So here we are the final Triple Crown race of the year. I gotta say that even though this year's edition hasn't been as exciting I would say that the winners maybe a little bit more popular then last years.

Will Wayne or one of this three former assistants take it down or is it Shug's for the taking? Will youngsters Irad, Joel or Rosie (all of them are under 30) get it done or it will be the old timers Gary and Jon (both are either 50 or over 50)? Will Kenny and Kieren end up in the Winners Circle again together? (Tight finishes have been the norm the past couple of years in the Belmont and last year's Travers was a pretty awesome race!) Will one of the Todd Squad make it? Lets take a look at this year's field!


1 Frac Daddy (30-1) Garcia, McPeek

2 Freedom Child (8-1) Saez, Albertrani

3 Overanalyze (12-1) Velazquez, Pletcher

4 Giant Finish (30-1) Prado, Dutrow

5 Orb (3-1) Rosario, McGaughey

6 Incognito (20-1) Ortiz Jr., McLaughlin

7 Oxbow (5-1) Stevens, Lukas

8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) Gomez, Pletcher

9 Revolutionary (9-2) Castellano, Pletcher

10 Will Take Charge (20-1) Court, Lukas

11 Vyjack (20-1) Leparoux, Rodriguez

12 Palace Malice (15-1) Smith, Pletcher

13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) Napravnik, Pletcher

14 Golden Soul (10-1) Albarado, Stewart


Here are the pros and cons for each horse.


Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy)


Pros: Belmont winning jockey, Broodmare sire second in the Belmont

Cons: Ran very poorly in the Derby


Freedom Child (Malibu Moon)


Pros: Won the Peter Pan at the track, weather looks like it will be to his liking.

Cons: Was a non starter in the Wood after coming out of the gates poorly (in which only one Derby starter from that prep ran well), took awhile to break his maiden


Overanalyze (Dixie Union)


Pros: Defending sire, the AR Derby better then first expected, defending jock

Cons: Can be a hit or miss when it comes to stakes races


Giant Finish (Frost Giant)


Pros: Ran remarkably well in the Derby considering his last minute addition, has the right jock to pull the upset, race owes his trainers family

Cons: Still have to say has yet to win a NYB stakes race


Orb (Malibu Moon)


Pros: Derby winner, Belmont winning trainer, weather will help, has an awesome female family for a mile and a half

Cons: Didn't really take to the Pimlico surface, how much is in the tank


Incognito (A.P. Indy)


Pros: Belmont winning sire, mom won 2 G1's at the track going a route of ground, Belmont winning trainer, young jockey

Cons: 5th in the Peter Pan, took awhile to break maiden


Oxbow (Awesome Again)


Pros: Preakness winner, his cousin ran second in this race last year, both his jockey and trainer have won the Belmont (apart and together)

Cons: Ran in both the Derby and Preakness like Orb how much is left?


Midnight Taboo (Langfuhr)


Pros: Sire has a Triple Crown winner in Canada, Belmont winning broodmare sire

Cons: 3 starts under his belt, stakes debut


Revolutionary (War Pass)


Pros: Skipped the Preakness, gets the jockey that he won the LA Derby back, dam won at a mile and a quarter

Cons: I'm concerned that his sire's side will shine thorough a bit and he'll be backing up late


Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song)


Pros: Gets Derby rider back

Cons: Ran very poorly in the Preakness, like Orb and Oxbow ran in both races


Vyjack (Into Mischief)


Pros: Ummm none

Cons: Ran poorly in the Derby, too far IMO for his liking


Palace Malice (Curlin)


Pros: Sire second in this race in 2007, Belmont winning jock

Cons: If he sets a hot pace like he did in the Derby, he could be in serious trouble


Unlimited Budget (Street Sense)


Pros: Dad won the Derby in 2007, trainer knows how to win the Belmont with a filly

Cons: Female family not as strong for a mile and a half as Rags to Riches was, 3rd in the Oaks but IMO that was an oddly run race


Golden Soul (Perfect Soul (IRE))


Pros: 2nd in the Derby, Trainer was an asst. for previous Belmont winners

Cons: 1 win in his career, winless this year


So who gets the win this year? As much as I would love either Oxbow or Orb win, niether is my pick for the race. My pick for the 2013 Belmont is Golden Soul, Oxbow for second and Orb for third. Incognito to finish in fourth. However, this race can be a crapshoot as well, so if Orb wins, I wouldn't be suprised. 


As for the Undercard, the race of the day outside the Belmont is the Just A Game. Stephanie's Kitten vs Mizdirection? I think Steph has the advantage, but don't count out Miz or Centre Court who I think could have a monster year. I love Reload in the True North and Point of Entry in the Manhattan, but Optimizer ran so well on the two turf stakes before the the TC races. 

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