For an example here are my Head and Heart picks from years past.
2004: Who I wanted (Heart)- Smarty Jones: because he was the local for me. Who I thought would win (Head)- Smarty Jones: I was still new to the game and well... he was the favorite after all. (Smarty did win)
2005: Who I wanted to win- Afleet Alex: like the year before because he was the local, even more so then Smarty since he was based at Delaware Park. Who I thought would win- Bellamy Road: His Wood was sensational and they where calling him the next biggest thing. While I thought he would win, I didn't want him to because well I was still bitter about Smarty losing the Belmont to his trainer the year before AND he was owned by George Steinbrenner. (Giacomo of course pulled off the monster upset, Alex was third)
2006: Who I wanted to win-Showing Up: Lets see under the radar, same owner as Barbaro and Tagg trained, yep I'll go with Funny Cide's trainer any day of the week. Who I thought would win- Barbaro: A big reason his FL Derby was amazing dueling with Sharp Humor. (Barbaro won, Showing Up finished 6th)
2007: Who I wanted to win- Hard Spun: It was some big shoes to fill with Barbaro winning the year before, but with a Delaware native owner and jockey he showed why Delaware had become a hotspot. Plus he was the reason why I had skipped math class the November before, just to see him in the Port Penn. Who I thought would win- Hard Spun: I wasn't sold on Curlin and with Street Sense coming off a suprising loss I didn't know what to expect. (Street Sense won, but Hard Spun finished a game second)
2008: Who I wanted to win- Big Truck: Yeah I know, Tagg, Tagg and more Tagg. I just didn't think Eight Belles belonged in the Derby had thought she should have gone to the Oaks. Who I thought would win- Eight Belles: As much as I didn't like it, she had the defending broodmare sire and her jockey had won the Oaks the day before with Proud Spell. Also Big Brown was not in a good spot with the 20 hole. (BB won, EB was a gallent second before being euthanized after breaking down, Big Truck finished up track)
2009: Who I wanted to win- Friesan Fire: Churchill owed FHF and Larry Jones, 2 runner up finishes the previous two years with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Who I thought would win- I'll Want Revenge: Of course that didn't happen he scratched since he was scratched the morning of the race. (Mine That Bird suprised everyone to win, FF second to last).
2010: Who I wanted to win- Super Saver: Knowing that he hailed from the same female family as Bluegrass Cat was big, also he had a jockey who previously won 2 Derbys. Who I thought would win- Super Saver: To add onto what I said before, lets face it Todd Pletcher was due to win the race. Churchill owed him. (SS was able to fulfill the prediction by winning comfortbly)
2011: Who I wanted to win- Archarcharch: I'd been a fan of his trainer since I first saw a picture of a colt he trained by the name of Prom Shoes. Archarcharch had a simlar running style to him and gave Jon Court a belated trip to the Derby (he rode Line of David the year before, but was bounced off for the big race). Whoo I thought would win- Not Animal Kingdom: Honestly I really did not know who was going to win last year. I liked Mucho Macho Man, but wasn't 100% he was the right horse, Nehro was game in the LA and AR Derbies, and he showed that he wasn't a horse that should be taken lightly. (Animal Kingdom won, giving John Velazquez his first Derby winer a year after his longtime regular trainer Pletcher won. Archarcharch was vanned off after finishing towards the back of the pack)
Here are a few things to keep an eye on before the Derby tomorrow.
*Watch how the horses warm up: Normally if a horse sweats up that's not a good sign, but it's supposed to be very warm. Plus there are horses who are notorious for getting wet.
*Watch how I'll Have Another's pony acts: Why am I singling out IHA's pony and not the 19 other ponys. It's not that IHA's pony is not used to large crowds, it's that he's not used to large crowds as a pony. He acted poorly in the SA post parade, but calmed down towards post time. But then again, Lava Man is prob. one of a handful of OTTB's who are now stable ponys who could beat any of the horses running in the race. Don't be suprised if NBC gives him a shoutout like they did in the SA Derby.
*How the track plays on the undercard: That will be a big indicator onto how well the horses in the Derby will run.
*Proud Citizen: The Gone West stallion can sweep the weekend after taking the Oaks with Believe You Can. Went the Day Well is his lone chance after the defection of Mark Veleski earlier this week.
Because I do not know who is taking the mounts on horses who where expected to be ridden by Robby Albarado, I am not doing a pick card for tomorrow. However, I will share my Derby pick is.
After much studying and seeing how evenly matched this year's field actually is, I'm going with a bit of a longshot. My heart and head pick for the 2012 Kentucky Derby is, Rousing Sernon. I honestly rather see it be I'll Have Another, Creative Cause or Dullahan, but I haven't liked the reports that I seen about all three of them (IHA shockwave therepy, Creative Cause foot issues, Dullahan dullness). Plus the FG horses ran well today. Gemologist for second and Bodemeister for third. If it rains, Dullahan moves up big time and will be my pick.
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