Race 11 - 5:45 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5 / Oaks-Derby Double Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pick 3
STAKES Kentucky Oaks (Grade I)
Purse $1,000,000. For Purposes Of This Preference The Graded Status Of Each Race Shall Be The Graded Status Assigned To The Race By The International Cataloguing Standards Committee In Part I Of The International Cataloguing Standards As Published By The Jockey Club Information Systems, Incorporated Each Year. One And One Eighth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Joyful Victory (ON) 3/F LA M E Smith 121 J L Jones 5/2
2 2 Lilacs and Lace (KY) 3/F LA J Castellano 121 J P Terranova, II 12/1
3 3 Summer Soiree (KY) 3/F LA G Saez 121 H G Motion 5/1
4 4 Kathmanblu (KY) 3/F LA J R Leparoux 121 K G McPeek 4/1
5 5 Suave Voir Faire (KY) 3/F LA M Mena 121 D M Smithwick, Jr. 50/1
6 6 Zazu (KY) 3/F LA J Rosario 121 J W Sadler 4/1
7 7 Her Smile (VA) 3/F LA G K Gomez 121 T A Pletcher 20/1
8 8 Bouquet Booth (KY) 3/F LA J R Velazquez 121 S Margolis 20/1
9 9 Daisy Devine (KY) 3/F LA J Graham 121 A McKeever 20/1
10 10 Street Storm (KY) 3/F LA S Bridgmohan 121 S Margolis 50/1
11 11 Holy Heavens (FL) 3/F LA K J Desormeaux 121 B Chatters 50/1
12 12 Plum Pretty (PA) 3/F LA M Garcia 121 B Baffert 5/1
13 13 St. John's River (KY) 3/F L R Napravnik 121 A Leggio, Jr. 30/1
A lot of people think this is a better race then the Derby this year. And I agree, still with the defection of R Heat Lightning who was injured, this is a wide open race. I'm going to throw out Suave Vior Faire, Street Storm and Her Smile right away, since none of them really deserve or should be in this race. I think the one reason why Holy Heavens has high odds is because she didn't run well against Joyful Victory. Zazu is the one who scares me the most, as she's probley the best closer in the race but she's coming off a layoff. Plum Pretty had the most impressive win, but she has yet to do well against good horses. Lilacs and Lace and Bouquet Booth are the two in here by Flower Alley, the good news is history is on his side. The past 3 Oaks winners have been out of their sire's first crops. LL and BB are both out of Alley's first crop. However, BB was orignally supposed to be ridden by Robby Alberado, but gets a jockey change because he has recieved a broken nose in a spill. Katmanblu all of a sudden is not the horse she once was. Joyful Victory is the horse to beat off of her 2 visually impressive wins at Oaklawn. When it's said and done, I think the winner will be coming out of one of the hottest preps the past couple of years. No I'm not talking about the Fantasy. I'm talking about the Fair Grounds Oaks. I think Daisy Devine will be your 2011 Kentucky Oaks winner. Why do I think this way? She's coming in under the radar, her connections are not well known and since 2004 4 FG Oaks winners (Ashado, Summerly, Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra) have gone onto win the Kentucky Oaks. Now granted all four had one more prep underneath them (Ashado, Summerly and Proud Spell all lost in the Ashland, while Rachel won the Fantasy), but that shouldn't effect her too much. Plus her name is Daisy and that's the name of my late dog. Second I have St. John's River who was closing like a train on Daisy in the FG Oaks. Her trainer also trained the late great Happy Ticket, and her owner/breeder owns the farm where Lotta Kim (Rachel's mom) is boarded. Which means if she wins, she will become the 2nd Oaks winner in 3 years to be born at Heaven Trees. The one thing I worry is that niether of her sire's top two foals (her full sister Panty Raid and my one of my all time favorite horses Prom Shoes) where fond of Churchill. Still I hope she does well. Third either Joyful Victory or Zazu.
Churchill Downs - May 7, 2011
Race 11 - 6:24 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
STAKES Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I)
Purse $2,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds With An Entry Fee Of $25,000 Each And A Starting Fee Of $25,000 Each. One And One Fourth Miles.
1 1 Archarcharch (KY) 3/C L J K Court 126 W H Fires 10/1
2 2 Brilliant Speed (FL) 3/C LA J Rosario 126 T Albertrani 30/1
3 3 Twice the Appeal (KY) 3/C LA C H Borel 126 J Bonde 20/1
4 4 Stay Thirsty (KY) 3/C LA R A Dominguez 126 T A Pletcher 20/1
5 5 Decisive Moment (FL) 3/C LA K D Clark 126 J D Arias 30/1
6 6 Comma to the Top (FL) 3/G LA P A Valenzuela 126 P Miller 30/1
7 7 Pants On Fire (KY) 3/C LA R Napravnik 126 K J Breen 20/1
8 8 Dialed In (KY) 3/C LA J R Leparoux 126 N P Zito 4/1
9 9 Derby Kitten (KY) 3/C LA J Castellano 126 M J Maker 30/1
10 10 Twinspired (KY) 3/C LA M E Smith 126 M J Maker 30/1
11 11 Master of Hounds (KY) 3/C LA G K Gomez 126 A P O'Brien 30/1
12 12 Santiva (KY) 3/C LA S Bridgmohan 126 E Kenneally 30/1
13 13 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C LA R Maragh 126 K Ritvo 12/1
14 14 Shackleford (KY) 3/C LA J L Castanon 126 D L Romans 12/1
15 15 Midnight Interlude (KY) 3/C LA V Espinoza 126 B Baffert 10/1
16 16 Animal Kingdom (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 H G Motion 30/1
17 17 Soldat (KY) 3/C LA A Garcia 126 K P McLaughlin 12/1
19 19 Nehro (KY) 3/C LA C S Nakatani 126 S M Asmussen 6/1
20 20 Watch Me Go (FL) 3/C L R Bejarano 126 K O'Connell 50/1
Juvy jinx! Juvy jinx! As you have already heard by now, Uncle Mo will not be going in this year's Derby. I do have some feelings on this (including why was he entered in the first place when he was not 100%), but I'll sound thoses if he doesn't run again. Because of that Animal Kingdom gets the big boost by getting Johnny V to replace Robby. Somewhat funny that Graham defeated Mo and Johnny in the Wood with Toby's Corner. The winner of the draw was Dialed In, the eight is the perfect postion for his type of running style. He could have first jump on everyone. The one who got the worst, Nehro and Watch Me Go. What not my boy Archarcharch? Pshh the 1 post is nothing. To tell you the truth, I almost cried when I saw he got the 1 hole. While many people make it out to be a death sentence, but he could be the one horse that might be okay with the one hole. Would I like him off the rail? Sure, you never want to be on the rail in the Derby, but it happens. Twice the Appeal has Calvin, but I don't even think he can win 3 in a row. Master of Hounds is a bit of a emigma. He's never run on dirt (niether has Animal Kingdom), he hasn't won a stakes race, he finished behind Soldat in the BCJT last year, and he has a jock that got bounced off the 3yo Champ last year. With that being said I was impressed by the UAE Derby runner up, the winner is going to the Epsom Oaks, so it will be interesting how he flatters her. There are three horses who have female trainers or rider. Of those three, I think Mucho Macho Man has the best chance. He would also become the youngest Derby winner and his trainer Kathy Rivto would become the first female trainer to win the race. Watch Me Go has the worst chance of the three no offence to his trainer Kathleen O'Connell. The third one is Pants on Fire, I somewhat want him to win since his jockey is a local, Rosie Napravnik would become the first woman rider to win the race. However, Louisiana hasn't been the best spot lately for horses (although Nehro did come back to finish second in the AR Derby).
So who is my pick? Post aside, I'm sticking with my heart and head. My pick for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is Archarcharch. I believe he will give Jon Court a Derby win after being taken off Line of David last year and I would love to see Jinks Fires come out of his Hall of Fame brother Earlie's shadow. Mucho Macho Man for second and Pants on Fire for third.
So that's it! I'll be back next week for reaction.
2 Value Plays
ReplyDeleteOaks – LILACS AND LACE
Derby – ANIMAL KINGDOM