March 25, 2011

Fair Dubai

The final preps for the Kentucky Derby begin this weekend with the Louisiana Derby. However, before I preview that race. Here are some of the other races that will be going on at the Fair Grounds and Meydan in Dubai. For Dubai I'm going to preview two races.

Golden Shaheen (Group 1) 6 furlongs

1. Kinsale King
2. Dim Sum (GB)
3. Charlie's Moment
4. Force Freeze
5. Dynamic Blitz (AUS)
6. Sunny King (IRE)
7. Euroears
8. Escape Route
9. Rocket Man (AUS)
10. Green Birdie (NZ)

A rematch from last year's Shaheen with the American Kinsale King and Singapore's Super Horse Rocket Man. Kinsale King really did not have a great US season last year, but then again he is a synthetic specialist he did win his prep at Golden Gate to get ready for his defence. Rocket Man hasn't done much wrong since his second place finish, and I do think he'll turn the tables on KK this year. Euroears is a good horse, but he never has reached that elite company when it comes to sprinting. This race however, is missing the two fastest horses in the World in Big Drama and Black Caviar. Green Birdie for third, really just for his name.

Top Three:
Rocket Man
Kinsale King
Green Birdie

Dubai World Cup (Group 1) 10 furlongs

1. Fly Down
2. Monterosso (GB)
3. Prince Bishop (IRE)
4. Cape Blanco (IRE)
5. Gio Ponti
6. Victore Pisa (JPN)
7. Musir (AUS)
8. Gitano Hernando (GB)
9. Transend (JPN)
10. Poet's Voice (GB)
11. Richard's Kid
12. Twice Over (GB)
13. Buena Vista (JPN)
14. Golden Sword (GB)

The big race on the Dubai card tomorrow. Gio Ponti will be carrying the Red, White and Blue (Fly Down will more likely stay in the Middle East after this race, Richard's Kid is now based out of the Middle East and Gitano Hernando was sold to the Chechen President (ugh :(). This is Twice Over's race to lose, he won the final prep over this surface, and is probley better on synthetic then he is on turf (even though he is a Group 1 winner on turf). Gio Ponti is really not the same horse he was 2 years ago, he had some good wins last year (including defending his Man O' War), but he's coming in without a prep. If she where to win the race, Buena Vista will become the richest horse male or female in the World.

Top three:
wice Over
Buena Vista
Gio Ponti

Now to the Fair Grounds card.

Fair Grounds - March 26, 2011

Race 6 - 2:49 PM Exacta / Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
STAKES New Orleans H. (Grade II)

Purse $400,000. For Four Year Olds And Upward. . By subscription of $400 each; $1,800 to pass the entry box; $1,800 additional to start. $400,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth 2% to fifth and 1% to sixth through ninth. Weights Thursday March 17th. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This Stake will be limited to 14 starters. High Weights will be preferred. Different owners have equal draw according to weights. Failure to draw into the race will cancel all fees. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. Closed Saturday, March 12, 2011, with 17 nominations. One And One Eighth Miles.
P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 3 Fast Alex (KY) 4/C L T Agilar 114 G Geier 10/1
1A 8 Country Flavor (KY) 5/G L S J Sellers 117 G Geier 10/1
2 1 El Caballo (KY) 7/H L R Albarado 115 R E Nicks 10/1
3 2 Mission Impazible (KY) 4/C L G K Gomez 118 T A Pletcher 3/1
4 4 Birdrun (FL) 5/H L R Maragh 119 W I Mott 5/1
5 5 Demarcation (KY) 7/G L A R Napravnik 120 P J McGee 4/1
6 6 Giant Oak (IL) 5/H L S Bridgmohan 122 C M Block 5/2
7 7 Apart (KY) 4/C L J M Campbell 118 A M Stall, Jr. 9/2

I see this a three horse race with Mission Impazible (who last year's LA Derby), Giant Oak and Apart. While he has been running into some tough luck lately, I remain on the Apart bandwagon... for now. I don't think Fair Grounds is Giant Oak's favorite track, and he has failed as the favorite since his first two starts. Demarcation did win the Mineshaft, but this is a bit of a different race with Giant Oak in here.

Top three:
Apart
Giant Oak
Mission Impazible

Fair Grounds - March 26, 2011

Race 8 - 3:56 PM Exacta / Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)
STAKES Fair Grounds Oaks (Grade II)

Purse $500,000. For Fillies Three Years Old. By subscription of $400 each; $1,800 to enter; $1,800 additional to start. Supplemental nominations of $15,000 will be accepted at time of entry which shall include all fees. $500,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth 2% to fifth and 1% to sixth through ninth. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. Weight: 121 Lbs. This Stake will be limited to 14 starters. Preference will be given in the following manner : first preference to graded or group winners in order (I,II,III), then highest career earnings (non-restricted), then total career earnings. Different owners have equal draw according to earnings. Second choice high earners of a same owner entry receive no consideration over a single entry. Starters to be named through the entry box at usual time of closing. Failure to draw into the race will cancel all fees. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. Closed Saturday, March 12, 2011, with 15 nominations. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Grandacious (KY) 3/F L J M Campbell 121 W B Calhoun 6/1
2 2 Little Miss Holly (KY) 3/F L E S Prado 121 S Margolis 8/1
3 3 Switching Gears (KY) 3/F L S Bridgmohan 121 S Margolis 8/1
4 4 Tapit Dancer (KY) 3/F L M C Baze 121 S M Asmussen 10/1
5 5 Daisy Devine (KY) 3/F L J Graham 121 A McKeever 8/1
6 6 Snow Fall (KY) 3/F L A R Napravnik 121 M Stidham 8/1
7 7 Tourmaline (FL) 3/F L M Mena 121 L Wiggins 20/1
8 8 St. John's River (KY) 3/F L K J Desormeaux 121 A Leggio, Jr. 8/1
9 9 Niji's Grand Girl (KY) 3/F L G K Gomez 121 K G McPeek 4/1
10 10 Inglorious (ON) 3/F L C Sutherland 121 J Carroll 3/1

Snow Fall is scratched due to illness according to DRF. Fillies in this race got a big break when Kathmanblu was not entered. Inglorious becomes the morning line favorite in this now wide open race. I do think that Daisy Devine has the best shot to upset her, with Switching Gears finishing in third.

Top three:
Daisy Devine
Inglorious
Switching Gears

Fair Grounds - March 26, 2011

Race 10 - 5:03 PM Exacta / Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)
STAKES Louisiana Derby (Grade II)

Purse $1,000,000. For Three Year Olds. (Foals of 2008) Early Bird Nomination Fee of $500 due by Monday, December 13, 2010, which includes nominating fee for, Lecomte (GIII) Stakes and Risen Star Stakes (GII) (Early Bird). Final nomination for Louisiana Derby closes Saturday, March 12, 2011, by subscription of $1,000. $5,000 to pass the entry box; $5,000 additional to start. Supplementary nominations of $50,000 will be accepted at time of entry which shall include all fees. $1,000,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth, 2% to fifth and 1% to sixth through ninth. Weight: Colts and Geldings, 122 Lbs.; Fillies, 117 Lbs. This race will be limited to 14 starters. Preference will be given in the following manner: first preference to graded or group winners in order (I,II,III), then highest career earnings (non-restricted), then total career earnings. In no case shall two horses sharing common ownership start to the exclusion of a single interest. Starters to be named through the entry box at usual time of closing. Failure to draw into the race will cancel all fees. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. One And One Eighth Miles.
P# PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Nacho Business (KY) 3/C L J Bravo 122 K J Breen 10/1
1A 2 Pants On Fire (KY) 3/C L A R Napravnik 122 K J Breen 10/1
2 3 Nehro (KY) 3/C L M C Baze 122 S M Asmussen 30/1
3 4 Mavericking (IL) 3/C L S Bridgmohan 122 N L Pessin 20/1
4 5 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C L R Maragh 122 K Ritvo 9/5
5 6 Liondrive (LA) 3/C L J Graham 122 T A Ice 50/1
6 7 Machen (KY) 3/C L E S Prado 122 N J Howard 7/2
7 8 Majestic Harbor (KY) 3/C L C J Lanerie 122 P J McGee 12/1
8 9 Le Mans (KY) 3/C L R Albarado 122 S M Asmussen 20/1
9 10 Wilkinson (KY) 3/C L G K Gomez 122 N J Howard 8/1
10 11 Left (KY) 3/G L J M Campbell 122 A M Stall, Jr. 10/1
11 12 Elite Alex (ON) 3/C L C H Borel 122 T F Ritchey 6/1
12 13 Populist Politics (LA) 3/C L R E Eramia 122 T M Amoss 30/1

Populist Politics is going in today's Cresent City Derby instead. Like the NOH, I feel this is between only a few horses. Mucho Macho Man, Elite Alex, Machen and Wilkinson. I think Left may end up being the best of the group down the road, but he's up against in this race. I would love to see a Rockport Harbor colt do well, so I'm hoping Majestic Harbor can somehow pull the upset. With that being said, MMM is the best horse in this field and should win the LA Derby. Could be best chance the Louisiana Derby has had in a while to produce a Derby winner.

Top three:
Mucho Machen Man
Wilkinson
Machen/Elite Alex/Left

Also in action this weekend, Bind and Might. In the UAE Derby Sweet Ducky is going. Gran Lioness is at Oaklawn against Arizena (Azeri's daughter). Mixed Up returns at Aiken.

Lastly, Black Caviar won today at Moonee Valley in Australia under the lights. She is now 11 for 11 in her career, what a filly!

So that's it for today, the Oaks list returns next week and I will have a recap of all the races on Monday.

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