When the American Graded Stakes committee meets next month, there will be serveral stakes that could be upgraded or downgraded for 2011. The following predictions are of races that I think may see or may not see grade changes for next year. These are just my opinons and mine alone, they might happen, they might not. Today is Part One of a three part series.
Fair Grounds Oaks G2
This race has been a key second (sometimes final) prep for the Kentucky Oaks. Since 1999 5 horses who won this race have gone onto win the Oaks (Silverbulletday, Ashado, Summerly, Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra). This year the runner up of the race Champagne d' Oro has won two G1 races.
Predicition: stays as a G2. Dispite the firepower of Rachel winning last year, this race really hasn't been a key race the rest of the year (with the exception of 08 with Proud Spell and last year with Rachel of course). The other reason being is that the Fair Grounds just pushed the purse of the LA Derby up to $1,000,000 for a race that really has produced anything for the Derby (and the rest of the year) since 2003 when Peace Rules won with Funny Cide crossing the line in third but upgraded to second with the DQ of Kafwain. This dispite Pyro and Friesan Fire winning in past years.
Discovery Handicap G3
This race is one of what I call "border" races. It's one of those that might be too late in the year except for those late blooming 3yos. Although last year's winner Haynesfield won a G1 this year over Blame who would go on to win the BC Classic.
Prediction: stays a G3. Just barely though, unfortanlly when it's held is a bit of a tricky spot since it's after most of the good three year olds are either done for the year or retired. More for those late blooming 3yos.
Obeah Stakes G3
Named after the dam of Go For Wand, the likes of Fleet Indian and Unbridled Belle have won this race, Miss Singsix won this years edition before finishing second in the DelCap. Was upgraded from ungraded status a few years ago.
Prediction: stays a G3. There is probley a small chance that it gets downgraded dispite the fact that Morena has finished second in this race two years in a row as well as finishing third in the Personal Ensign last year. It will be interesting what happens.
Clark Handicap G1
Up and down, down and up. It has bounced between G1 and G2 status the past few years. Einstein, Preminum Tap and Blame have all won this race in past years.
Prediction: Downgraded to a G2. Just because it's been bouncing around the past few years. Although if 4 horses (Brass Hat, Apart, Morning Line and/or Dakota Phone) win it remains a G1. I think any other horse might be enough for it get downgraded once more. I just wish the AGS would make a final decision and stick with it for 2 years in a row.
Delaware Oaks G2
The past four winners of this race have finished in the Top 4 in their next race which was the Alabama (only Moon Catcher did not win, she finished fourth). Add in the fact that this years winner Blind Luck will more then likely be named Champion 3yo Filly to add to Proud Spell who won in 08 (if it wheren't for a certin Medaglia d' Oro filly last years winner Careless Jewel would have also taken home 3yo filly honors). Also getting stakes wins this year where last year's runner up Malibu Prayer and this year's runner up Havre de Grace.
Prediction: Upgraded to a G1. This race finally gets it's due just for the fact that Blind Luck and Havre de Grace fared very well at the BC. I think had they thrown a Careless Jewel then the race would have remained a G2.
Ashland Stakes G1
Really the last chance for those who want to get into the Oaks. The past three winners have been Little Belle, Hooh Why and Evening Jewel.
Prediction: Downgraded to a G2. This was a tough one to predict because of the history of this race. However, with the surface change from dirt to poly most of these horses have experience over a synthetic or turf. The last horse to win the Oaks after winning this race was Silverbulletday in 1999 (Although both Evening Jewel and Little Belle where close to winning the Oaks). And with the exception of Evening Jewel since 2007 the winners did not accomplish much more after winning this race.
Part 2 will be coming later on this week.
Rachel, don't forget, it is not based just on the winner, but the entire field. That can make a big difference in the grading.
ReplyDeleteGood point Chris. That's why more then likely none of my predictions will come true. Although I do feel that the Ashland really does need to be downgraded.
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