June 4, 2010

Heart over Head

So this is it, the final Triple Crown race of the year. I'm a bit sad that it's ending, because we won't be seeing a Triple Crown winner this year. It's been an interesting one to say the least, from Super Saver's Derby win, to Lookin at Lucky's Preakness to now. Unfortanlly both SS and Lucky are skipping this race, but they'll be back down the road. Here is this year's field for the Belmont:

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Dave In Dixie Calvin Borel John Sadler 20-1
2. Spangled Star Garrett Gomez Richard Dutrow, Jr. 30-1
3. Uptowncharlybrown Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
4. Make Music for Me Joel Rosario Alexis Barba 10-1
5. Fly Down John Velazquez Nick Zito 9-2
6. Ice Box Jose Lezcano Nick Zito 3-1
7. Drosselmeyer Mike Smith Bill Mott 12-1
8. Game On Dude Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 10-1
9. Stately Victor Alan Garcia Mike Maker 15-1
10. Stay Put Jamie Theriot Steve Margolis 20-1
11. First Dude Ramon Dominguez Dale Romans 7-2
12. Interactif Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12-1

Right away, I'm throwing out Dave in Dixie, Spangled Star, Drosselmeyer and Stay Put. That leaves me with eight, I think First Dude could be a fluke so I'm tossing him, Stately Victor seems to be hit or miss and I'm going to say miss in this race. Game On Dude did not run well against Ice Box in the FL Derby and is coming out of a prep that hasn't had that much sucess, so I have to toss him even though he has one of the hottest jockeys around. I want to like Ice Box, but I just think Fly Down is the better of the Zito trainees. This leaves me with three, Uptowncharlybrown, Make Music for Me and Interactif. I know on paper these three are longshots, but this is a race where I'm going with my heart instead of my head.

My pick to win the Belmont is Uptowncharlybrown, this would be the first win for his owners Fantasy Lane Stable, the second for his new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and the first for his new jockey Rajiv Maragh. All of this after Charly's orginal trainer Alan Seewald lost his life to a heart attack. However, I would be estatic if Alexis Barba becomes the first woman to win a TC race with Make Music for Me who I loved since he was a 2yo. A Belmont win by Interactif would sure make the Super Saver loss sting less for his trainer Todd Pletcher. I fully expect either Fly Down or Ice Box to win the race however giving Nick Zito his third Belmont win and Jose Lezcano his first or Johnny V his second.

Head Choices (What I think will happen):
Fly Down
Game On Dude
Ice Box

Heart Choices (What I want to happen):
Uptowncharlybrown
Make Music for Me
Interactif

Here are a few other races going on Saturday at Belmont.

6th (2:34)
Woody Stephens S. (G2)
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Eightyfiveinafifty Dominguez R A 123 L
2 Remand Velazquez J R 117 Blk-Off L
3 Discreetly Mine Castellano J J 123 L
4 Thank U Philippe Gomez G K 119 L
5 D' Funnybone Prado E S 123 L

A small, but talented field. I think Eightyfive should win this with D' Funnybone in second (as I still think this is a little bit too long for him), I wouldn't be suprised if Discreetly Mine takes it though.

9th (4:46)
Betfair TVG Acorn S. (G1)
1 Mile | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000
Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Hot Trip Coa E M 121 L
2 Tanda Solis A 121 L
3 Dances With Ashley Velazquez J R 121 L
4 Seeking the Title Desormeaux K J 121 L
5 Streaker Castellano J J 121 L
6 Amen Hallelujah Dominguez R A 121 L
7 Quiet Temper Gomez G K 121 L
8 Much Rejoicing Garcia Alan 121 L
9 Buckleupbuttercup Lezcano J 121 L
10 Tidal Pool Maragh R 121 L
11 Indian Burn Velasquez C 121 Blk-On L
12 Champagne d'Oro Garcia M 121 L
13 Crisp Borel C H 121 L

Nice size field. Seeking the Title got knocked out of her last race due to a spill, but she's back for more. Quiet Temper, Tidal Pool, Champagne d' Oro, Crisp and Amen Hallelujah all ran in the Oaks. Buckleupbuttercup upset Hot Dixie Chick in the Eight Belles, but I'm going with a horse whose sister probley should have been the 06 3yo Champion filly and with any luck, she will be at Churchill in November where her sister sadly broke down the same year. Streaker is undefeated in three starts, her half sister is the late Pine Island. Quiet Temper for second and Champagne d' Oro for third.

10th (5:36)
Woodford Reserve Manhattan H. (G1)
1 1/4 Miles (Inner turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Gio Ponti Dominguez R A Clement Christophe 122 L 2-1
2 2 Strike a Deal Gomez G K Goldberg Alan E 118 L 12-1
3 3 Pinckney Hill Maragh R Penna Angel Jr 114 L 8-1
4 4 Winchester Velasquez C Clement Christophe 115 L 15-1
5 5 Take the Points Prado E S Pletcher Todd A 121 L 9-2
6 6 Court Vision Albarado R J Dutrow, Jr. R E 120 L 4-1
7 7 Jet Propulsion Garcia M Wolfson Martin D 115 L 20-1
8 8 Grand Couturier (GB) Garcia Alan Ribaudo Robert J 117 L 12-1
9 9 Just as Well Desormeaux K J Sheppard Jonathan E 117 L 10-1
10 10 Interpatation Lezcano J Barbara Robert 116 L 30-1
11 11 Expansion Castellano J J Brown Chad C 116 L 20- 1

This is the race of the day outside of the Belmont. I really would love to see either Take the Points, Just as Well, Winchester, Gio Ponti or Court Vision win this. I wouldn't mind if Strike a Deal or Grand Couturier wins, but anyone else would be a disapointment.

That's it for the weekend preview for this week. I'll have a Triple Crown recap on Monday and start looking foward to the rest of the year.

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