Breakdown of Oaks and Derby

Okay here is the plan for the rest of the week. Today will be the breakdown of both races, tomarow I preview the undercards for both days and choose my Oaks winner (Although it should be no suprise), meanwhile Friday will be final thoughts on the Derby and my pick for the Kentucky Derby!

Here is the G1 Kentucky Oaks

1. Tweeter
2. Be Fair
3. Stone Legacy
4. Gabby's Golden Gal
5. Justwhistledixie
6. Rachel Alexandra
7. Nan
8. Flying Spur

For the first time in awhile, there are no G1 winners. It's really a two horse race, but I'll talk about everyone. Tweeter has only a maiden win, but she might do well here as her half sister won the Kentucky Oaks in 2003 as the first part of the NY sweep with Funny Cide (I should note that Bird Town is a KY bred, but her owner and trainer live in New York), D.Wayne Lukas (Who did not train Bird Town), trains her. Right next her is her stablemate Be Fair and next to her is their other stablemate Stone Legacy, who ironicly is by Tweeter's 3/4 brother 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone. Gabby's Golden Gal could start a big weekend for her trainer Bob Baffert, coming off a win in Sunland Oaks she is by Medaglia d'Oro (Who I'll talk about more in a little bit). Justwhistledixie who will be the second choice is next to Gabby, she won down at Gulfstream last time out and is on a 5 race winning streak. Then there is the favorite and the other MDO filly in the race, Rachel Alexandra. Let can I say about my fellow Rachel, lets see.. she's on a four race win streak, she's won in the slop, on a fast track, at Oaklawn, at Fair Grounds and most importantly at Churchill Downs. Nan had been running behind Stardom Bound in Cali and Flying Spur was second behind Rach in the Fair Grounds Oaks.

And now to the Kentucky Derby!

1. West Side Bernie (30-1)
2. Musket Man (20-1)
3. Mr Hot Stuff (30-1)
4. Advice (30-1)
5. Hold Me Back (15-1)
6. Friesan Fire (5-1)
7. Papa Clem (20-1)
8. Mine that Bird (50-1)
9. Join in the Dance (50-1)
10. Regal Ransom (30-1)
11. Chocolate Candy (20-1)
12. General Quarters (20-1)
13. I Want Revenge (3-1)
14. Atomic Rain (50-1)
15. Dunkirk (4-1)
16. Pioneerof the Nile (4-1)
17. Summer Bird (50-1)
18. Nowhere to Hide (50-1)
19. Desert Party (15-1)
20. Flying Private (50-1)

West Side Bernie was second behind I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Musket Man won the IL Derby last time out, and also won the Tampa Bay Derby. Mr. Hot Stuff is the full brother to Col. John and one of three WinStar horses in the race. His trainer Eion Harty won the Dubai World Cup in March with Well Armed who like Mr. Hot and John is by Tiznow, maybe good omen? Advice won the Lexington 2 weeks ago and is the second WinStar horse, and Hold Me Back, the Lane's End winner is the final WinStar horse. AP Indy has a Preakness and Belmont wins as a sire, this could be his best chance to win the Derby with Friesan Fire. The Derby gods also owe his trainer, jockey and co-owner some good news as well. Papa Clem won the AR Derby, upsetting former favorite Old Fashioned. Mine That Bird, really doesn't have a chance IMO. Join in the Dance joins Advice and Dunkirk as the triple threat from Todd Pletcher. Regal Ransom upset his stablemate in the UAE Derby. Chocolate Candy finished second behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, and should take to dirt with no problem. General Quarters is the Cinderella horse in the race, from 20k claimer to G1 winner. I Want Revenge is a nice horse with a young jockey and a trainer who will be suspended starting the day after the Derby. He is the deserving favorite after winning a troubled trip in the Wood. Atomic Rain is a late addition to the Derby. Dunkirk is lightly raced, but very talented. Pioneerof the Nile won the SA Derby last time out, his sire was second in the 03 Derby. Summer Bird is by Birdstone and he closes like daddy, maybe not Derby material, but look out for him in the Belmont. Nowhere to Hide is trained by Birdstone (and Bird Town)'s trainer Nick Zito. He was added to field after the defection of Win Willy. Last, but not least, Flying Private will try to win from the 20 hole like Big Brown..

Well there you have it, the breakdown of the Oaks and Derby. Stay tuned for my picks in the next two days.