The more I think about it, the more I have narrowed down who my pick will be for the Belmont. While I won't announce until Friday, I thought I would post some of the horses that I think have a good chance.
Nehro- The Derby runner-up was closing better then Animal Kingdom IMO. In reality I think if he had won the Derby, we might have seen a Triple Crown winner this year. His past three races where all 2nd place finishes and he was closing like a train in each race. This son of Mineshaft could give Steve Asmussen his first Belmont winner, and Ahmed Zayat who had been close with Pioneerof the Nile in the 09 Derby, his first TC race winner.
Stay Thirsty- Everyone knows that Afleet Alex won the 2005 Belmont, but what people forget is that Andromeda's Hero finished in second. This Bernardini colt is his little brother. Wouldn't it be something if Mike Repole wins after his big horse Uncle Mo well... was struck by the Juvenile curse.
Master of Hounds- Kingmambo like his great mother was a miler, however he does have stamina on his dams side. He showed that dirt will not be a problem for him. Kingmambo has already sired a Belmont winner in Lemon Drop Kid.
Brilliant Speed- Wanna talk about a horse bred for the distance. Dynaformer colt who is from the same family as Touch Gold who of course is a Belmont winner himself and With Approval who won the CAN Triple Crown. This horse could run to Antartica and back if you asked him.
Animal Kingdom- You have to wonder how much did his grinding second place finish took out of him. While his sire was a miler, he does have loads of stamina on his dam side. The Belmont track should suit the Leroidesermex (BRZ) colt well with it being a large track. My only question is does he have enough in the tank?
Shackleford- A couple of good things about him and bad things about him. Belmont tends to be a speed favoring track, and the pace for the Belmont tends to be slower then the other two races. However, he did set a slow pace in the Derby and faltered at the end. The other thing is, he is by Forestry so you have to wonder how far he really wants to go. The other good news is that his broodmare sire does have a Belmont winner, and one of his sisters finished second on this track as a 3yo. Although Lady Joanne's race was a one turn race. Much like Animal Kingdom, he's run in both TC races, the others listed have not. Will he have enough in the tank?
Prime Cut- Probley the lone horse who will have not started in either the Derby or Preakness. This Bernstein colt defeated Bind who had won his maiden impressively down at the Fair Grounds. He does have some stakes experience, but has yet to win one. He does get help on his dam's side through her sire of Stravinsky, in turn Stravinsky is a brother to Moscow Ballet the defending broodmare sire and the sire of one of my favorite fillies, Moscow Burning.
Others considered: Ruler on Ice and Santiva.
Showing posts with label early choices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label early choices. Show all posts
June 7, 2011
December 28, 2009
Early Derby Choices and a Very Special Announcement
I know it's early, but Friday we will only be four months away from the First Saturday in May, the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports, the Run for the Roses: The Kentucky Derby! So with that I'm going to put out my first Derby prospects together in this post. I will tell you that the horse that I'm gaga over (aka Rule) is not #1 (I'm not that stupid to put a G3 winner ahead of a G1 winner on the first list), nor is the Juvenile Champ (Vale of York (IRE)). However, I think the rest of the list is very reasonble and interesting. There are five of them for right now going in reverse order (worst to best, although all of these horses are very good horses).
#5 Noble's Promise (Cuvee): Won the Dixiana Breeders Futurity (G1) and the Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes. He was third in the BC Juvenile (behind Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky), and second in the Cash Call Futurity. The big concern with him is that he's never been on dirt (only synth and turf) and his sire Cuvee had one race beyond a mile and he finished last. Now of course Noble has out done his father by winning the mile and sixtheenth Breeders, but still the question of dirt is big.
#4 Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision): Is Calder the new Mid Alantic? Up until Old Fashioned's injury and Friesan Fire's debacle this year, since 2004 the Mid Alantic has sent horses who have gone on to star status starting with Smarty Jones, going to Afleet Alex, then Barbaro, then Hard Spun and finally Eight Belles and Proud Spell. Calder may just take the title away from them, with stakes winner Jackson Bend, G1 winner Homeboykris and G2 winner D'Funnybone all starting their careers at the Florida racetrack. However, the best of them all could be this filly. Filly? Uhh you know there is a race for them, don't you? Yes I know the likelyhood of this girl ending up in the Derby isn't great, but right now she is my Oaks pick and the early favorite for the race. Her only two losses where in the Del Mar Debutante and BC Juvenile Fillies, her Hollywood Starlet was by far the most impressive race I saw this year by a two year old. The cool thing is she has a win over a dirt surface. Now granted it was over 40k claimers, but still a dirt win is a plus. Hopefully she does well next year weather she is Derby or Oaks bound.
#3 Super Saver (Maria's Mon): Lets see WinStar bred, from the same female family as the sire of Personal Ensign, by a 2yo champion who has sired a Derby champ, and oh yeah did I mention he's a WinStar homebred? From the same people who brought you horses such as Funny Cide (although he did not run for WinStar), Bluegrass Cat and Colonel John brings you this G2 winner. The WinStar boys are loaded this year with a potential three headed monster (Super Saver, American Lion, and Rule). He has a win on dirt and a win at Churchill. That helped Rachel Alexandra this year, and I think it will help Super Saver next year.
#2 Buddy's Saint (Saint Liam): How hard was it to leave Rule off this list? It was extreamly hard that if he had been here, in all likely this guy (or Blind Luck) would have been left off. However, the fact that he has crossed the line first in all three of his races (he was DQ'ed from his maiden win, but rebroke his maiden in the Nashua), and that he will be facing horses such as Winslow Homer, Super Saver and Rule puts him #2. This is Saint Liam's only crop after a freak accident claimed his life, hopefully Buddy can make his dad very proud. The New York 2yo route has been hit or miss, but the fact that he has a win over dirt is a plus.
#1 Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike): Cross out the BC Juvy, that was IMO a fluke win for Vale of York. Lucky was able to return to the winners circle in the Cash Call Futurity. Of course the concern of him not winning on dirt is a strike. However, Bob Baffert (who is loaded himself of Derby prospects) has said that he will prep on dirt before the Derby. This is HUGE news considering he will have to leave Cali in order to get a dirt surface. I don't think him ajusting to a dirt surface will be a big problem, however like synths not all dirt surfaces will be alike. Baffert has three Derby winners, (Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem) is this the year he gets his fourth? Only time will tell.
Honorble Mention: Rule (Roman Ruler), Winslow Homer (Unbridled's Song), Aikenite (Yes It's True), American Lion (Tiznow)
I need to see more from: Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil)
I plan on doing a Top 5 list at the end of each month leading up to the Derby. If this is successful, I may bring it back after a 2 month break in May and June for the Breeders' Cup. Until then I hope that you enjoy this list.
Meanwhile I announced on the Facebook Fan page (you need to be a member of Facebook in order to see most of the activities), that I had a very special announcement to make. If you did not read my Twitter page earlier tonight, then you don't know about my very exciting news. I got accepected into the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance (TBA as it's known by). From their website, the TBA "are a diverse group of horse racing professionals and fans blogging about the sport we love." You can find the TBA website at: http://tbablogs.com/
I'm honored to be part of this group and in celebration of me getting in, I'm asking all my readers to donate (if they can) to Old Friends (TBA's choice) or a horse rescue of your choice. This is really exciting and I really want to thank Patrick and Brian of TBA for accepting Thoroughbred Chat as a member. Thanks guys!
#5 Noble's Promise (Cuvee): Won the Dixiana Breeders Futurity (G1) and the Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes. He was third in the BC Juvenile (behind Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky), and second in the Cash Call Futurity. The big concern with him is that he's never been on dirt (only synth and turf) and his sire Cuvee had one race beyond a mile and he finished last. Now of course Noble has out done his father by winning the mile and sixtheenth Breeders, but still the question of dirt is big.
#4 Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision): Is Calder the new Mid Alantic? Up until Old Fashioned's injury and Friesan Fire's debacle this year, since 2004 the Mid Alantic has sent horses who have gone on to star status starting with Smarty Jones, going to Afleet Alex, then Barbaro, then Hard Spun and finally Eight Belles and Proud Spell. Calder may just take the title away from them, with stakes winner Jackson Bend, G1 winner Homeboykris and G2 winner D'Funnybone all starting their careers at the Florida racetrack. However, the best of them all could be this filly. Filly? Uhh you know there is a race for them, don't you? Yes I know the likelyhood of this girl ending up in the Derby isn't great, but right now she is my Oaks pick and the early favorite for the race. Her only two losses where in the Del Mar Debutante and BC Juvenile Fillies, her Hollywood Starlet was by far the most impressive race I saw this year by a two year old. The cool thing is she has a win over a dirt surface. Now granted it was over 40k claimers, but still a dirt win is a plus. Hopefully she does well next year weather she is Derby or Oaks bound.
#3 Super Saver (Maria's Mon): Lets see WinStar bred, from the same female family as the sire of Personal Ensign, by a 2yo champion who has sired a Derby champ, and oh yeah did I mention he's a WinStar homebred? From the same people who brought you horses such as Funny Cide (although he did not run for WinStar), Bluegrass Cat and Colonel John brings you this G2 winner. The WinStar boys are loaded this year with a potential three headed monster (Super Saver, American Lion, and Rule). He has a win on dirt and a win at Churchill. That helped Rachel Alexandra this year, and I think it will help Super Saver next year.
#2 Buddy's Saint (Saint Liam): How hard was it to leave Rule off this list? It was extreamly hard that if he had been here, in all likely this guy (or Blind Luck) would have been left off. However, the fact that he has crossed the line first in all three of his races (he was DQ'ed from his maiden win, but rebroke his maiden in the Nashua), and that he will be facing horses such as Winslow Homer, Super Saver and Rule puts him #2. This is Saint Liam's only crop after a freak accident claimed his life, hopefully Buddy can make his dad very proud. The New York 2yo route has been hit or miss, but the fact that he has a win over dirt is a plus.
#1 Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike): Cross out the BC Juvy, that was IMO a fluke win for Vale of York. Lucky was able to return to the winners circle in the Cash Call Futurity. Of course the concern of him not winning on dirt is a strike. However, Bob Baffert (who is loaded himself of Derby prospects) has said that he will prep on dirt before the Derby. This is HUGE news considering he will have to leave Cali in order to get a dirt surface. I don't think him ajusting to a dirt surface will be a big problem, however like synths not all dirt surfaces will be alike. Baffert has three Derby winners, (Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem) is this the year he gets his fourth? Only time will tell.
Honorble Mention: Rule (Roman Ruler), Winslow Homer (Unbridled's Song), Aikenite (Yes It's True), American Lion (Tiznow)
I need to see more from: Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil)
I plan on doing a Top 5 list at the end of each month leading up to the Derby. If this is successful, I may bring it back after a 2 month break in May and June for the Breeders' Cup. Until then I hope that you enjoy this list.
Meanwhile I announced on the Facebook Fan page (you need to be a member of Facebook in order to see most of the activities), that I had a very special announcement to make. If you did not read my Twitter page earlier tonight, then you don't know about my very exciting news. I got accepected into the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance (TBA as it's known by). From their website, the TBA "are a diverse group of horse racing professionals and fans blogging about the sport we love." You can find the TBA website at: http://tbablogs.com/
I'm honored to be part of this group and in celebration of me getting in, I'm asking all my readers to donate (if they can) to Old Friends (TBA's choice) or a horse rescue of your choice. This is really exciting and I really want to thank Patrick and Brian of TBA for accepting Thoroughbred Chat as a member. Thanks guys!
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