Ransom Again

Last year, a Distorted Humor colt by the name of Regal Ransom came into the Kentucky Derby by defeating his highley regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby. After pressing the pace, he ended up finishing 8th. Regal went on to win the Super Derby, before finishing 8th again this time in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Flash foward 12 months, G1 winner Devil May Care will become the first filly since the late great Eight Belles to run in the Kentucky Derby. May (I just can't call her Devil, as she looks like a sweetheart when not on the track), happens to be Regal Ransom's kid sister. The difference, May is by Malibu Moon. Both of them are out of the Red Ransom mare Kelli's Ransom.

As I posted yesterday, May is inconsistant, but has been faster then the colts in the morning. And with Eskendereya now out, John Velesquez will be in the irons. The good news is that his first TC race win was on a filly, that being Rags to Riches in the 07 Belmont. She is basically replacing Rule who just hasn't been training great this week. I gotta give WinStar a lot of credit for deciding to pull him out, while he's not by DH, he's from the family that put both DH and WinStar on the map back in 2003 (I have a post that will be up in a few weeks that talks about the horse that put the former two on the map). Plus a mile and quarter is just too long for him. Possibly the Preakness which might be more up his alley (and the site of the said horses most impressive win visually).

Last thing on today's post is Birthdays. Starting in 2000 the following winners where born in the following months.

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus- April
2001: Monarchos- February
2002: War Emblem- February
2003: Funny Cide- April
2004: Smarty Jones- February
2005: Giacomo- February
2006: Barbaro- April
2007: Street Sense- February
2008: Big Brown- April
2009: Mine That Bird- May

So with the exception of the Bird, everbody else was born in either Feb or Apr. Interesting.

If the Derby where today, these are the horses to keep an eye on if you are going on this pattern.

Feb. birthdays: Endorsement, Conveyance, American Lion, Dean's Kitten, Interactif (although most likely not going), Paddo O Prado, Homeboykris, Jackson Bend
Apr: birthdays: Noble's Promise, Dublin, Awesome Act

A few other neat facts, Stately Victor will be offically three on Saturday (will he give himself a nice birthday present by winning?), and Lookin at Lucky won't be 3 until a few weeks afterwards. Devil May Care will be 3 six days after the Derby and will actually be older then her brother when he ran in the Derby last year.

Another post coming tomorrow, Weds will be reviewing the fields, Thursday the chat and Friday handicapping select races on both undercards and of course the Oaks and Derbys themselves.

Zayat Karma strikes again!

Did you hear something Sunday morning? That my friends was people tearing up their Derby future tickets with Eskendereya on them. Today, Esky was declared out of this year's Derby due to an injury. For now, Jackson Bend is on the bubble and Backtalk could be the last horse out. The reason why I say for now is that if Interactif and Devil May Care both go to the Derby (Instead of American Turf and the Oaks repectivly), then both he and Paddy O Prado would be out. Before I talk about why I think Interactif belongs, but Devil May Care doesn't in a paragraph, however I'm going to explain why I think Esky's departure is a case of a little thing I call Zayat Karma.

If you remember from last year, Ahmed Zayat and Mark Allen tried to pull a stunt which would have left Rachel Alexandra on the outside looking in for the Preakness. This would have given Zayat's Pioneerof the Nile, the runner up from the Derby a better chance to turn the table on Allen and Dr. Lenoard Blach's Mine That Bird who won the Derby. MTB would have gotten back his jockey Calvin Borel. Of course that was foiled by Marylou Whitney how said she would not enter Luv Gov if it was going to keep Rachel out. Rachel got in, and well the rest they say is history. Since then, things haven't gone exactly right for Zayat. Here is an example:

• Pioneerof the Nile retiring due to injury after the Preakness
• Thorn Song bolting in a stakes race, then going MIA (I believe he is at a hospital in California right now)
• Zensational losing the BC Sprint, then losing the Eclipse for Male Sprinter to Kodiak Kowboy.
• And to top it off, he got sued

So things have not gone Ahmed Zayat's way.

The two horses to keep an eye on if they go are Interactif and Devil May Care, both are trained by Todd Pletcher (as are Rule (who is now questionable for the Derby, hopefully he pulls out. I think a mile and quarter is too far for him. Plus he had a horrible work yesterday dispite getting the bullet), Super Saver, Mission Impazable, Esky and Discreetly Mine). Interactif is owned by the same connections of Goldikova, the 2 time BC Mile winner. While he hasn't won this year, Interactif has something that Sidney's Candy doesn't: a win over dirt. He probley is a little bit better on turf/synth, but he's by Broken Vow who of course is the sire of Unbridled Belle (another Pletcher trainee), out of a Broad Brush mare who in turn is out of the great late Personal Ensign. So he's got the female family to go a mile and quarter and he's got a sire who has a G1 winner who has won at a mile and a quarter. Devil May Care however, should not. Dispite being by Malibu Moon out of Regal Ransom mare, I'm not sold of her going. Her half brother is Regal Ransom, and dispite being by one of the hottest sires around in Distorted Humor, he failed at the two times he ran at a mile and a quarter. The other thing is, she has been inconsistant throughout her career. Yes she's a G1 winner, but since then she has put together 1 good race, defeating Amen Hallujah who is likely a sprinter, and Christine Daae who ended up being overhyped. Yes DMC is running faster then the males in workouts, however races are a different monster. She's not even the best 3yo filly, that honor belongs to Blind Luck who should also be Derby bound, but will be the overwhelming favorite for the Oaks instead.

While I'm not a huge huge fan of fillies going against the boys (yes I know it's done in Europe and it was done in the US more often before, but that's not the point I'm making), I can understand why they want to face the boys now. However I would love to see DMC in the Preakness, if they want to take on the boys. Yes it's a sixteenth shorter then the Derby, but it's a smaller field (only 14 are allowed, which is the same for the Oaks and Belmont as well), most of the runners are also rans, the winner, and fresh faces, and she would have 1 extra day of rest then the rest of the field. With that being said, this year's Preakness maybe tougher then useal because horses such as Backtalk, Sutsuko maybe left out. We'll find out tomorrow where she lands.

As for this weekend's races, it was a matter of what the heck happend to D' Funnybone? He got a horrendous ride in the Withers. I'm happy for Afleet Again after throwing some clunkers, and Ibboyee, all that work and he settles for second and how about the third place finsher. IMO Ibboyee is now the best 3yo sprinter (IMO Afleet Again can run at longer distances), with D' Funnybone being a little bit behind. With that being said, at a shorter distance I think D' Funnybone can turn the tables on Afleet Again. At Churchill, Calvin Borel showed... that he's the King of Churchill! Now if things go his way on Friday on a certin 4yo filly, we could see her back in the Winners Circle (it was confirmed that Rachel will go the La Trioanne next).

And with that, Derby Week offically begins. Everyday until except Thursday which will be the Live Chat and Saturday also a chat day, a new post will be posted. So check back tomorrow for Derby talk.

And it came down with a thud

The Unbridled's Song curse strikes again! Winslow Homer is off the Triple Crown Trail with a fractured cannonbone. So everybody moves up a spot and the new #10 is: American Lion (Tiznow)- The third member of what is now the WinStar fourheaded monster to land on the top ten list. Unlike the other three (Rule, Super Saver and Drosselmeyer), he has yet to run on a dirt surface. And since American Lion is now #10, I need to replace him on the next time inclusion list: And I'm going to do it with a horse who more then likely will skip the TC trail, but I won't be suprised if he makes his stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth OR the Florida Derby. The horse I'm talking about is Lentenor (Dynaformer). Also out is Laus Deo who had surgery, so Rick Porter for the first time since Hard Spun in 2007 will not be repasented in the Run for the Roses.

However, the next few weeks will be quite exciting as the true contenders start making their first starts of the year (including the horse who I think will be a very good horse this year in the Sam F. Davis or Risen Star). Quality Road goes in the Donn, Blind Luck (#4 on my Derby list, #1 on my Oaks list) goes against a filly who might be a good one in Crisp at SA. All of the Weekend preview stuff will be on Friday.

Meanwhile if you haven't signed up for the WinStar Fanstasy Stable contest and want to, you can find all of the information at WinStar's Fantasy Page. If you type in thoroughbredchat at yahoo dot com (did it this way to avoid spam), in the referral box, then I think I get money to help my stable earnings. You have until Feb. 13 at noon to sign up if you want to make changes.

Win Willy out and lets make a tie in the brackets

Well Willy is out :(. And Nowhere to Hide is in. Ah well, there's nothing that I can do. The Oaks field has been announced and will be posting on here later today along with the Derby field. Stay tuned for a special second post later today. And this time I mean it.

Also I'm calling a tie in the brackets as I just don't have the time to write them up and post them. Sorry everyone!

Square Eddie out and lots of other goodies

Well in a way it's no surpise. My guess is he'll head to the Queen's Plate, link. This means that none of the top three of last year's Juvi will be running in this year's Derby (Street Hero was retired and Midshipman is out until later this year). While I wasn't going to be rooting for Eddie, still dispointing for his connections. Although this means that Take the Points is now in! Although personally, I hope they wait till the Preakness.

And while it's less interesting, I'm still excited about the Derby.

Also an intersting article about Oaks preps, link. Lets hope that the FG Oaks/Fantasy route works again.

And while they will not be showing the Derby draw or any of the Preakness undercard this year, ESPN will be showing it on their online feed at ESPN360.com. It stinks for me since our cable company is not hooked up with it. Pooh! Link

Brakets will be coming later today!

Derby week starts out with Quality Road out

Well Derby Week starts with a bang with one of the favorites, Quality Road, now out due to a new quarter crack. Link His jockey, John Velazquez will now ride Mr. Hot Stuff.

Friesan Fire had a fast workout today, which was at 5 furlongs. While I'm a bit concerned that about the layoff, I'm not as concerned as I should be. The reason being is his trainer, Larry Jones had a colt workout the fastest pre-Derby workout in 2007. What did the colt do, almost win the Derby. Of course I'm talking about Hard Spun. Many thought that he left his race on the track, but that didn't happen. Friesan Fire is Jones' best and last chance to finally win the Derby, as he has decided to retire from public training after the Breeder's Cup.

Chocolate Candy had the second fastest workout today (behind Friesan Fire) at same distance. I love the jockey switch to Mike Smith, and they could probley suprise people and maybe even steal it.

Rachel Alexandra had the bullet for 4 furlongs, she is so ready for her showdown with Justwhistledixie. Oaks PP's get drawn tomarrow, and hopefully those two go 1-2.

The final brakets matchups will come out tomarrow, in a special two post day.

Edit (4:52 pm) Too lazy to make a new post, but I would like to share this video from Bloodhorse.com, they are doing a special on the previous Derby winners from 95 to last year. The three exceptions are Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Charismatic as they stand in Japan (Charm and Charismatic) and PA (Fish, RQ's nickname) respectivly. The rest are standing/living in Kentucky (Funny Cide lives at KHP since he is a gelding).

In matter of fact here is Funny's vid:

Breaking News: Old Fashioned out of Derby

Not suprised that he's out, just how he's out. Shame he was injured in the race, but I always thought that his stablemate was the better horse and he proved it. That helps Dunkirk (who becomes my 4th darkhorse along with Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy and Musket Man).

Link

Name change for Vallenzeri, Grapefruit out (And so much more)

Alot to talk about today, first off thank you for everyone on the RPH(rockportharbor.com/forum) site for their sympathies for the passing of my dad. Secondly, there is only a few weeks left until the opening of my home track Delaware Park. So in a few days, I will be sharing a few photos that I've taken of the past two years there, as that's how long I've been going semi-regularly. They will be of most likley, last year's DelOaks, DelCap and a few of Elusive Moment (for you Smarty Jones fans, that is his full sister who raced here a few times).

Anyway Azeri's first born was finally sold, link. However, Vallenzeri (who is by AP Indy) will be getting a name change according to his new trainer Bob Baffert. Honestly, I'm not an Azeri fan and the name was blah to me. However, with one of the best trainers in the US, he can become a really nice horse. Will he be his mom and dad? No, but only time will tell.

The Pamplemousse is out of the Derby, link. Hopefully we see him action next year, also Quality Road has a quarter crack, but that doesn't sound like they are too concerned. If he drops, then it helps Dunkirk more and more.

The winner of the third annual Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award was announced. Link

Stallion Spotlights will be returning starting next week with Bertrando. Again sorry for all of these delays.

Dubai World Cup card and another two more drop off the Derby trail

Here are all of the TB races that will be run Sat morning- early afternoon (here on the East Coast) in Dubai, UAE.
Link

Because there is no betting allowed in Dubai, plus I don't know all of the horses as they are from all around the world. I won't be analyzing all the races, but Friday I will be analyzing the UAE Derby and World Cup as those two races might have an impact in the US races later this year.

Also according to DRF.com, Silver City will be focusing on sprinting and his next race will be the Derby Trial, also off the trail is Beethoven due to a small injury. This is a shame, because I thought he would to well in the FL Derby. Maybe we see him in the Haskell later this year.

The brackets will return tomarrow. :)

Rags foals, Proud Spell returns, a legendary race is supended (again) and no Derby for 'Drama'

Rags to Riches (AP Indy x Better Than Honour) had her first foal, a filly by Giant's Causeway. (Link) The 2007 Kentucky Oaks and Belmont Stakes winner will be bred back to Henrythenavagator. I'm really excited to see this girl run in two years. She'll have a ton of pressure on her, because of who her mother is.

Meanwhile, last year's Oaks winner Proud Spell (Proud Citizen x Pacific Spell) will prep for the Apple Blossom on Thursday at Oaklawn. (Link) She could face defending champion Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom.

Meanwhile, this year's Derby's prospects got thinner, when it was announced that Big Drama will skip this Derby, because he is not quite ready to return from his injury. (Link)
)
Last but not least, the Pimlico Special has been suspended again. (Link) It's really a shame to see a race like this to be suspended for the second time in three years. This is the race that is most known for being the match race of Seabiscuit vs War Admiral.

Weekend Recap, Three off the TC Trail

So I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend! Alot has happend with the Derby picture, including three horses saying goodbye to the Triple Crown.

First off is Notonthesamepage and Break Water Edison, both who did not do well in yesterday's FOY will be taking some time off and heading to sprints. The following is from Bloodhorse.com, the reason why I'm not posting a link, because the first half of the article has nothing to do with these two horses.

Eli Gindi’s Break Water Edison was scheduled for X-rays, a head-to-toe
once-over, and likely a
nuclear scan as trainer John Kimmel seeks to explain
why the 3-year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid had to be pulled up in the stretch
of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. The winner of the Nashua Stakes (gr. III) at
Aqueduct Nov. 3 has now finished last in his two stakes attempts at
Gulfstream Park, and the way he ran Feb. 28 under jockey Eibar Coa has Kimmel, a
licensed
veterinarian, concerned about what the tests will find.
“Eibar
said he seemed to put himself in a great position until they got into the turn,”
said Kimmel. “He switched his lead and immediately took himself off the bridle
and kept
switching back so that Eibar thought he hurt himself. He tried to
protect the
horse and the horse seemed pretty willing to pull himself up.“We
don’t know
yet, but if these X-rays don’t show anything, I have a feeling
the nuclear scan
will. A lot of times the X-rays will come back clean, but
the scintigraphy will
light up bruises on the cannon bone. I hope that’s not
the case, because that’s
60-90 days right there, and that would pretty much
wipe out his season.”
Scintigraphy is a diagnostic test in which a
two-dimensional picture
of a body-radiation source is obtained through the
use of radioisotopes.
Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s Spectacular Bid Stakes winner
Notonthesamepage
suffered pulmonary bleeding during the Fountain of Youth
and will be sent to a
hyperbaric chamber and pointed to shorter races in the
future. “He bled
pretty bad,” said trainer Wesley Ward. “It’s something
we’ve been fighting with
him and it came out again yesterday. It’s
unfortunate, but I think we’ve got the
makings of a pretty good miler.
That’s where we will look from
here.” Notonthesamepage was an impressive
front-running winner of the
Spectacular Bid Jan. 3. With a fast pace
expected in the Fountain of
Youth, Ken Ramsey, Ward, and jockey Elvis
Trujillo decided to experiment with
taking back off the pace. Ramsey now
regrets that call. “I told them let’s
see if he can take back, but it now
looks like that put stress on him,” Ramsey
said. “We’ve studied why horses
bleed like this and it’s always the stress. We
thought maybe we could take
him back and send him a signal when it was time to
go, but instead it just
stressed him out. It was bad timing.”

Also off the trail for the TC is last year's BC Juvi winner, Midshipman. This is not good news for Godolphin who bought him from the McNairs when Darley bought Stonerside last year. They do have a good shot with Desert Party, but he's going have to run the race of his life to beat the four year olds in the UAE Derby and then come back home to run in the KY Derby. Link to the Midshipman article. BTW this means that Street Sense will remain the only Juvi/Derby winner, until at least next year.

Now to weekend recaps.

I'm going ahead and skipping the claiming race as Arcata finished second to last :(, one finished fourth and the other scratched. So total for this race is $0.

Styime: Barrier Reef was the only one who hit the board with him winning. Researcher and Barcola did okay, but I'm really pleased with Mateca who finished fourth in his first try in open company. Chart

Fountian of Youth: I had Capt. Candyman Can, Theregoesjojo and Beethoven. Well Quality Road suprised me with a very impressive win. Jojo and Beethoven got second and third respectvlly and Capt. was fourth. Chart

Sham Stakes: I had The Pamplemousse, Take the Points, Mr. Hot Stuff. Can I just say that I rock! I had the top three in order! Nice job by all three of them. Chart

I will have an updated earnings probley tomarrow, as it's supposed to snow here, and well I won't have anything to do.

Before I wrap up this post. There is one other race I would like to share with you. Yesterday at Oaklawn was the Mountian Valley Stakes. It's a six furlong sprint for 3yo's, and is best known for Afleet Alex's 3yo debut (this was before his poor Rebel (In which Jeremy Rose was not riding him for the only time in his life) and amazing AR Derby). Well a horse very near and dear to my heart, Citizen won the race as the longest shot on the board. How much did he pay? $60.00! I've been following him since his debut, he's a former Stonerside horse who is by City Zip out of Rachel's Star (hence I put him in my stable, since well my name is Rachel :P). Here's the chart.

New top 5 coming tomarrow night.

Indygo Mountian off the TC trail

Sorry for the double post for today, but another horse has dropped off the TC Trail. This time it's Indygo Mountain.

The following is from Bloodhorse.com

One Risen Star alumnus definitely not going on to the Louisiana Derby is seventh-place finisher INDYGO MOUNTAIN (A.P. Indy), who has been declared off the Triple Crown Trail. The Clarence Scharbauer Jr. colorbearer came out of the race well, but trainer Bret Calhoun has concluded that the colt needs more time to develop.
"We have no excuses," Calhoun said Sunday morning. "We had a good trip yesterday. We just need to regroup with this horse. He had some problems earlier this winter and we need to take some time with him now. It doesn't look like he'll be ready for the big dance. He needs to freshen up a little bit. Luckily, Mr. Scharbauer has the other horse to keep his hopes alive this spring."

His stablemate Silver City will face Friesian Fire's stablemate Old Fashioned in Monday's Southwest. It should be interesting race.

Big Weekend Preview (Part 2), Patena, Tiago and Injuries

Here is the final big race on the weekend.


Oaklawn Park - February 7th, 2009 - Race 9
Essex H. - Grade:
Estimated Local
Post Time: 5:02 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Four Year Old and Upward
Purse: $100,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Going Ballistic (FL) 5 Horse 115 M. Clifton Berry
2 Golden Yank (KY) 4 Gelding 119 Timothy T. Doocy
3 Solar Flare (ARG) 5 Horse 115 Calvin H. Borel
4 Prom Shoes (KY) 5 Horse 115 Christopher A. Emigh
5 Spotsgone (KY) 6 Horse 113 Joe M. Johnson
6 Encaustic (MD) 5 Horse 113 Luis S. Quinonez
7 Que Paso (VA) 6 Gelding 110 Martin Escobar
8 Telling (KY) 5 Horse 116 Eusebio Razo, Jr.

Last year Spotsgone went gate to wire to win the Essex Handiacap. I see Jinx Fires defending this title, but not with Spotsgone. I'm going with his stablemate Prom Shoes who loves Oaklawn. He won the final older male stakes race at Oaklawn last year and had an okay year afterwards (for Prom Shoes standards). He's coming off a pretty bad loss, but that was on turf which is not his best surface. Second I'm going with Solar Flare and Going Ballistic for third.

Top three:
Prom Shoes
Solar Flare
Going Ballistic

A few things as well. Saratoga Sinner is off the Derby trail with a chip in his knee, link. Every year there is a horse who doesn't stay on the trail for that long and this year it's him. Square Eddie is out for 30 days with a sore shin, link. It's a shame because I thought he would be the horse to upset Old Fashioned in the Southwest. Even if he doesn't make it back for the Derby, look out for him in the Queen's Plate which is on Poly (He's a Candian bred). Patena (TC 3yo colt #4) is heading to the LA Derby, link, and Tiago (TC Older Male #2) is back in Sunday's San Antonio at Santa Anita, due to a lack of time, I won't make a prediction other then go Tiago and Well Armed! Link

Tomarrow is the Stallion Spotlight.