Derby and Oaks Power Rankings Week 1

  So here we go! The first Power Rankings for the 2013 Derby season are upon us. This weeks lists will be five horses each with honorable mentions (there will be two HM's per week, expanding to four in March). In March, the Derby list will go to eight and the Oaks list to seven. Finally in April, both lists will expand to 10.  Also there are no trainers listed for this week, but that will also change next week. These lists may seem to be a little out there, but honestly this is just how I feel. Next weeks should be better. Without further adieu, here are this weeks lists.

1. Princess of Sylmar (Majestic Warrior): Although New York winters have not been very strong for either boys or girls lately, she could change it all. Her owner did say to the DRF that her main goal for the year is the Alabama and she might not go in the Oaks. However with Kauai Kate and Excutivepriviledge having distance limitations, and Beholder possibly following in that same the Oaks trail is wide open. Her trainer has a big chance to sweep the Oaks and Derby, but only if she goes.

2. Pure Fun (Pure Prize): There are two reasons why she is not my #1, the first is I haven't had the time to see her races (which will change after I put up her post) and the second is I have no clue where she is heading. What I do know is that she has a win at Churchill which is big and she defeated Excutivepriviledge in the Hollywood Starlet. 

3. Sister Ginger (Student Council): Handed Rose to Gold a loss in yesterday's Martha Washington. As strong as the Oaklawn preps have been for the boys, they might be even stronger for the girls despite the Fantasy getting a downgrade in grading for 2013. 2008-2010 the winners of that race has won the Oaks, Preakness, finished second in the Derby, Woodward, Haskell, Alabama and 2 Three Year Old filly championships (Eight Belles, Rachel Alexandra and Blind Luck). Her trainer knows the Oaklawn preps well, so I assume that's where she will remain.

4. Fiftyshadesofhay (Pulpit): Winner of the Santa Ysabel in her last. Connections no strangers to the big dance. Her sire has one of the hottest sires around in Tapit, plus her dam is by one of the most popular Derby winners of the 90's. Granted her race was lacking, but the next race should have better quality company.

Honorable Mention

Flashy Gray (Flashy Bull): Formally owned by breeder of Rachel Alexandra, she won today for her new connections West Point. No stakes experience yet, but this new format might put her at an advantage then a disadvantage. 

Dawn's Charm (Hard Spun): Even though she finished third in the Santa Ynez, she almost held off Beholder. From a personal standpoint, I'm hoping that she can suprise people and do well on the trail.

1. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron): Broke the track record when defeating Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull. The FL Derby could be a barn burner. Will be interesting how much he progresses.

2. Revolutionary (War Pass): It wasn't how he won the Withers, it was the way he did it. In theory he ran possibly the best prep race imaginable. The biggest question is, can he keep up the pressure. His trainer has been loaded before and not done well, I'm hoping this is not the case again. 

3. Flashback (Tapit): His full sister Zazu was the runner up in the 2011 Oaks. One of the biggest problems with Tapit foals though is that they have a problem staying sound. The Robert Lewis which he won in his last however produced last year's Derby champ. Will be interesting where he goes. 

4. Violence (Medagalia d' Oro): Name aside, this horse hasn't done anything wrong in his three starts. My biggest concern is that his sire's best foals have been fillies. This colt might be the one to change it all.

5. Oxbow (Awesome Again): Even though the Louisiana route has been ice cold lately, the resurgence of his trainer is a big help. Winner of the Lacomte, he hails from the female family of last years Belmont runner up (Paynter's dam and his dam are full sisters). We know that horse has just as much heart off the track as he does on it.

Honorable Mention

Verrazano (More Than Ready): Last year Bodemeister almost became the first horse to win the Derby without racing at 2 since Apollo. Guess who didn't race at two, this guy! While he is 2 for 2 in his career, I just hope he doesn't sour on the Derby trail.

Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song): I tried everything in my best interest to avoid putting him on this list due to UBS not being the soundest in the world. However, he's been running at the right track and hopefully is heading in the right direction.

2013 Derby and Oaks Power Rankings Introduction

  The calandar has turned from January to February, that can mean only one thing. It's time for the start of the 2013 Derby and Oaks Power Rankings! That's right with the Derby trail just about to start the major portion of preps, I thought it would be a good time to get this post up and ready to go. So this is how the Furlong Drive Power Rankings will go for this year. Starting next Sunday and every week until the Sunday before the fields are drawn for the Derby, there will be a list of the top seven horses of who I think have chances to win the Roses. For the Oaks, the list also be out on Sunday in the same post.

Like with the Breeders' Cup rankings that where posted in the Fall, sires and trainers will be included along with a description. I'm very excited to put these lists out, weather you agree or disagree with them it does not matter. Here's to a good prep season and may all the horses return safe, as well as sound.

Hello There Point System

For years, people have been complaining that horses who have enough graded stakes earnings, but have done poorly in prep races have been allowed to enter the Derby. Well Churchill has decided to change that with throwing out the system they have been using since the 1980's and implementing a point system instead. The Oaks will have a simlar system as well.

The point of this is to put more emphasis on races a mile or over then sprints which many of the 2yo graded stakes are. There are people angry that the G1 BC Juvenile now will be worth as much as the Smarty Jones a listed race at Oaklawn. But it's not as bad as the Royal Lodge at Newmarket which is a great race I may add being a points race while the IL Derby which hasn't had Derby success lately, but has more say into the Derby then an overseas race does isn't. From what I'm understanding, unrestricted stakes will be used as a tiebreaker. So in a way, GSE will still be a factor, just not as much.

What people are also complaining about is that Filly only races will only count for the Oaks, but if they face open company then the points will count for both races. Some may say it's not fair to those who are thinking Derby without going the most adventurous rote. On the other hand though the three Derby winners who are female (Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors) had previously faced males in races before their race at Churchill. The two recent fillies who would have been left out if points where implemented when they ran are 2008 runner up Eight Belles, Three Ring, Excellent Meeting, and Devil May Care (Serena's Song had won the Spiral and very likely had locked herself into the field as her Filly only points would have counted for the Derby along with the Oaks). I think they want fillies to prove themselves that they can handle open company before going to the Derby. If not, then they have the Oaks to fall back onto. Also, the AE list will still be in effect for both races.

The biggest question is this. Will the trainers like this. As of right now, the response has been mainly negative. 

As for me and how I feel about it? It certainly has it's flaws, but I really like that all the point races are a mile or more. Looking at this year's field, according DRF Trinniberg (who did all of his prep work sprinting) would have been the AE and My Adonis (a router) who was the AE would be in the field. Also Bodemeister, Dullahan and I'll Have Another would be 3 of the Top 4 (only Gemologist who ended up track crashed their party). This will limit the amount of horses like Trinniberg into the race. Sure you'll see horses who don't belong, but it's the Derby. Happens almost every year.


This will take some time getting used to, and hopefully for 2014 there will be some tweeks to get things more satisfying to trainers, owners and fans content. 

Oaks Dam Outlook

Much like the Derby Dam Outlook chart from last night. Except this time this is all about the ladies of the Oaks. You'll notice there are some new names to the list as this is this year's field as it was drawn today. Oaks Lily is the only AE for this year's edition, but I added her because of the chance she gets into the field.

Dam's Name (Sire)	Daughter (Sire)	Comments about the Dam
The Right Pew (Pulpit)	Kavlovy Vary (Dynaformer)	1 win in 8 starts. She's a 1/2 sister to G2 winner Great Intentions. Listed foal is a full sister to G2 placed Rocket Legs.
Ashlees Lady (Gilded Time)	Yara (Put It Back)	0 for 2. She is a 1/2 sister to G1 winner Healthy Addiction. Same female family as Passing Mood (dam of With Approval and Touch Gold).
Like a Gem (Tatical Cat)	Hard Not to Like (Hard Spun)	6 for 18 in her career. Won the Wonder Where to deny Kimichi the Canadian Triple Tiara at the Derby distance on turf.
Run Kate Run (Cherokee Run)	Amie's Dini (Bandini)	Unraced. Her highest earning foal to date is G3 placed Kid Kate.
Summer Exhibition (Royal Academy)	Summer Applause (Harlan's Holiday)	Unraced. Her dam Dewan's Flag is a stakes winner. She is a 1/2 sister to G2 winner Recoup the Cash. Other then listed foal, she has stakes placed Big Easy.
Eden's Causeway (Giant's Causeway)	Eden's Moon (Malibu Moon)	Won 1 out of 7. Her dam North of Eden (IRE) is a half sister to Theatrical (IRE). She is a 1/2 sister to muliple G1 winner and Champion Turf Horse Paridise Creek, multiple G2 winner Forbidden Apple, and G1 winner Wild Event.
Broadway Gold (Seeking the Gold)	Broadway's Alibi (Vindication)	3 for 11 in her career and won the Astoria. Her dam Miss Doolittle is G2 placed and is out of multiple G1 winner, 2yo Champion Filly and KY Oaks runner up Eliza. She is a 1/2 sister to G1 winner Dialed In. Foal is a 1/2 sister to G1 placed R Gypsy Gold.
Alchemist (A P Indy)	And Why Not (Street Cry (IRE))	4 for 17 and is G3 placed. Her dam Aldiza is a G1 winner and is a granddaughter to the great broodmare Courtly Dee. She is a 1/2 sister to G3 winer Altesse. Foal is a 1/2 sister to stakes placed Burj Dubai.
Colonella (Pleasent Colony)	Colonial Empress (Empire Maker)	1 for 4. Her dam Minstrella is a mulitple G1 winner in England/Ireland and 2yo Champion Filly. She is the full sister to G1 placed Colonial Minstrel and 1/2 to G2 place Minidar among others. Foal is a 1/2 sister to G3 winner Pleasant Strike.
El Fasto  (El Prado (IRE))	Believe You Can (Proud Citizen)	Unraced. She's a 1/2 sister to G2 winner Classic Elegance.
Christies Treasure (Belong to Me)	Sacristy (Pulpit)	2 for 9 is stakes placed. She's a 1/2 sister to stakes winner Dancingall Theway.
Jemima (GB) (Owington (GB))	Jemima's Pearl (Distorted Humor)	5 for 20 in the England and the US. G2 winner in England, stakes placed in the US. Foal is a 1/2 sister to stakes winner English Colony (GB).
En Silence (Rahy)	Oaks Lilly (Badge of Silver)	1 for 8 in England. 1/2 sister to stakes winner and 3rd place finisher in the KY Oaks Sneaky Quiet.
Season's Greetings (IRE) (Ezzoud (IRE))	Grace Hall (Empire Maker)	3 for 14 in France. Is a stakes winner there, and is G2 placed.

Oaks Sire Outlook

 Like the Derby Sire chart that I shared yesterday, this chart looks at the sire's who will be represented in this year's Oaks which is run at a mile and eighth. Like the Derby, not all the sires listed will be in the race, I also chose the first two outside of the Top 14 in Graded Stakes earnings.

Sire (The Sire's Sire)	Horses by This Sire	Comments About the Sire
Empire Maker (Unbridled)	Grace Hall, In Lingerie, Colonial Empress	2003 Belmont winner, he also won the FL Derby and the Wood Memorial. Among his foals are one of this year's Derby favorites Bodemiester, last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner Royal Delta, and 2009 Derby runner up Pioneerof the Nile.
Proud Citizen (Gone West)	Believe You Can	2002 Derby runner up. His best foal is 2008 Oaks and Eclipse Champion Proud Spell. He has Mark Valeski, Went the Day Well for this year's Derby.
Hard Spun (Danzig)	Hard Not to Like	2007 Derby runner up, he went on to finish second in the Haskell and Breeders' Cup Classic that same year as well. He also won the Lane's End, King's Bishop and the Kentucky Cup Classic. Among his top foals are G2 placed Glinda the Good, G2 winner in England Red Duke and G2 placed Midnight Transfer.
Dynaformer (Roberto)	Kavlory Vary	He did his best running on turf winning the 1988 Jersey Derby, but he won the Discovery on dirt the same year as well. As a sire, he has gone on to sire G1 winners Barbaro, Perfect Drift, Film Maker, McDynamo (steeplechase), among others.
Smoke Glacken (Two Punch)	On Fire Baby	The 1996 Hopeful winner, he did also capture several stakes the next year including the Riva Ridge and Southwest. Despite his sprint speciality he did have enough stamina to hold onto second in the Lexington and 3rd in the LA Derby in 1997. His some best foals to date are G1 winner Persistently, G2 winner Read the Footnotes, and stakes winner Pink Viper.
Put It Back (Honour and Glory)	Yara	Won the 2001 Riva Ridge. His best foal to date is G2 winner Smokey Stover.
Distorted Humor (Forty Niner)	Jemima's Pearl	Multiple stakes winner including the 1997 Salvatore Mile. Among his top horses include 2003 Derby, Preakness and Eclipse champion Funny Cide, G1 winner and BCC runner up Flower Alley, BCC winner Drosselmeyer, G1 winner Awesome Humor and G1 winner in Australia Rinky Dink.
Vindication (Seattle Slew)	Broadway’s Alibi	2002 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion, Eclipse 2yo Champion Male. Retired undefeated. Among his top foals include G1 placed Wyomia.
Street Cry (IRE) (Machiavellian)	And Why Not	2002 Dubai World Cup and Stephen Foster winner. Among his top foals include BC Juvenile 3rd place finisher Street Hero, 2006 BC Juvenile winner, Eclipse champion, 2007 Derby winner Street Sense, and 2008 BC Ladies Classic winner, 2009 BC Classic winner, 3 time Eclipse Champion and Horse of the Year Zenyatta.
Discreet Cat (Forestry)	Mamma Kimbo	2006 UAE Derby and Cigar Mile winner. He has G3 winner Out of Bounds.
Harlan's Holiday (Harlan)	Summer Applause	2002 FL Derby and Blue Grass winner, along with winning the Donn in 2003. As a sire he has G1 winner Majesticperfection, G1 placed Denis of Cork, G2 in UAE Mendip.
Bandini (Fusaichi Pegasus)	Amie's Dini	2005 Blue Grass winner, he also won the Skip Away the next year. To date, this is his best foal at stud.
Malibu Moon (AP Indy)	Eden's Moon	He has Prospective as a Derby contender. The downside to his career is he only won once in his two career starts. His top horses include Eclipse winner Declan's Moon, G1 winners Life at Ten, Ask the Moon, Malibu Prayer and Devil May Care.

Oaks and Derby Very Early Top Five

Hard to believe, but we are only a little bit over four months away from the Oaks and Derby. It will be interesting who will be the top dog going into the preps which begin in mid-Jan/Early Feb. However, here are my top 5 for now for both the Derby and the Oaks.

Derby


1. Hansen (Tapit): A huge win over Union Rags in the Juvenile, he came out of Turfway of all places to become the best thing since well... Hanson's "Umm Bop". My one concern is that Tapit's tend to get a very fast start, but tend to tail off quickly.

2. Union Rags (Dixie Union): He got a bit of a crummy ride in the Juvenile, but showed that he could go a mile and a sixteenth. Not 100% sold that a mile and a quarter is his game, but we'll see what happens.

3. Liaison (Indian Charlie): Unlike the other IC colt that everyone was raving about last year and this year... this one has a bit of clout to him. His dam and granddam are both by Belmont winners (Victory Gallop and AP Indy), so the stamina is there. Of course he gets his speed from dad. That combo might be just enough to the finish line first. But then there is the soundness issue that Charlie has passed along, lets hope he stays that way.

4. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway): A horse who maybe a wiseguy choice come Derby day. He'll have a tough time this winter going against Liaison and others such as Hierro. Right now, he's the horse who I would love to see to win the Derby the most.

5. Dullahan (Even the Score): Unlike his brother who shall remain nameless, Dullahan has run well in the BC finishing a closing fourth. While he won't be a Champion in Canada like big brother was as a 2yo, he could still have a chance on something that he missed out on, an Eclipse Championship.

Others Considered: Gemologist, Sabercat, Souper Speedy, O'Prado Again, Hierro


Oaks


1. Grace Hall (Empire Maker): Could she help get her dad home if she wins the Oaks next year? Prob. not, but with Weemissfrankie injured and My Miss Aurelia getting some time off as well she vaults into the #1 spot. Runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies, she won the Spinaway then went back to her hometrack to win the Blue Hen before her race at Churchill. The 3yo Females in Florida could be the deepest in years, will be fun to see what happens.

2. Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Prob. a Woodbine Oaks contender more then Kentucky, but I'm putting her here anyway. Her 1/2 sister is this year's Oaks/Queen's Plate winner Inglorious, who herself is by Hennesy so really a mile and eighth shouldn't be a big problem with her since her dam has not had a problem throwing distance horses with sprinter/miler stallions.

3. Now I Know (Pure Prize): Coming from OK, might work to her advantange. However, that could also be an disadvantage because she will now have to face horses of better quality. She'll have to pick up her game if she wants to hang with the big girls.

4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun): Sure she was fifth in her US debut, but she's Group placed in England and she's remaining in the US to run as a 3yo. She's out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the stamina is there. She'll give Grace Hall some fits if they face off against each other.

5. On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken): We know she loves Churchill (2 for 2), and the Golden Rod has been a pretty good indicator on how well a horse does as a 3yo. The question is if she can get that extra sixteenth. I'm not sure on it, but alot of people didn't think Plum Pretty could either.

Others considered: Inny Minnie, Yvete Sangalo (MEX), Killer Graces, Disposablepleasure

Oaks and Derby Predictions

So this is it, Derby weekend is finally upon us. Lets take a look at both fields for the Oaks and Derby.

Race 11 - 5:45 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5 / Oaks-Derby Double Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pick 3
STAKES Kentucky Oaks (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000. For Purposes Of This Preference The Graded Status Of Each Race Shall Be The Graded Status Assigned To The Race By The International Cataloguing Standards Committee In Part I Of The International Cataloguing Standards As Published By The Jockey Club Information Systems, Incorporated Each Year. One And One Eighth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Joyful Victory (ON) 3/F LA M E Smith 121 J L Jones 5/2
2 2 Lilacs and Lace (KY) 3/F LA J Castellano 121 J P Terranova, II 12/1
3 3 Summer Soiree (KY) 3/F LA G Saez 121 H G Motion 5/1
4 4 Kathmanblu (KY) 3/F LA J R Leparoux 121 K G McPeek 4/1
5 5 Suave Voir Faire (KY) 3/F LA M Mena 121 D M Smithwick, Jr. 50/1
6 6 Zazu (KY) 3/F LA J Rosario 121 J W Sadler 4/1
7 7 Her Smile (VA) 3/F LA G K Gomez 121 T A Pletcher 20/1
8 8 Bouquet Booth (KY) 3/F LA J R Velazquez 121 S Margolis 20/1
9 9 Daisy Devine (KY) 3/F LA J Graham 121 A McKeever 20/1
10 10 Street Storm (KY) 3/F LA S Bridgmohan 121 S Margolis 50/1
11 11 Holy Heavens (FL) 3/F LA K J Desormeaux 121 B Chatters 50/1
12 12 Plum Pretty (PA) 3/F LA M Garcia 121 B Baffert 5/1
13 13 St. John's River (KY) 3/F L R Napravnik 121 A Leggio, Jr. 30/1

A lot of people think this is a better race then the Derby this year. And I agree, still with the defection of R Heat Lightning who was injured, this is a wide open race. I'm going to throw out Suave Vior Faire, Street Storm and Her Smile right away, since none of them really deserve or should be in this race. I think the one reason why Holy Heavens has high odds is because she didn't run well against Joyful Victory. Zazu is the one who scares me the most, as she's probley the best closer in the race but she's coming off a layoff. Plum Pretty had the most impressive win, but she has yet to do well against good horses. Lilacs and Lace and Bouquet Booth are the two in here by Flower Alley, the good news is history is on his side. The past 3 Oaks winners have been out of their sire's first crops. LL and BB are both out of Alley's first crop. However, BB was orignally supposed to be ridden by Robby Alberado, but gets a jockey change because he has recieved a broken nose in a spill. Katmanblu all of a sudden is not the horse she once was. Joyful Victory is the horse to beat off of her 2 visually impressive wins at Oaklawn. When it's said and done, I think the winner will be coming out of one of the hottest preps the past couple of years. No I'm not talking about the Fantasy. I'm talking about the Fair Grounds Oaks. I think Daisy Devine will be your 2011 Kentucky Oaks winner. Why do I think this way? She's coming in under the radar, her connections are not well known and since 2004 4 FG Oaks winners (Ashado, Summerly, Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra) have gone onto win the Kentucky Oaks. Now granted all four had one more prep underneath them (Ashado, Summerly and Proud Spell all lost in the Ashland, while Rachel won the Fantasy), but that shouldn't effect her too much. Plus her name is Daisy and that's the name of my late dog. Second I have St. John's River who was closing like a train on Daisy in the FG Oaks. Her trainer also trained the late great Happy Ticket, and her owner/breeder owns the farm where Lotta Kim (Rachel's mom) is boarded. Which means if she wins, she will become the 2nd Oaks winner in 3 years to be born at Heaven Trees. The one thing I worry is that niether of her sire's top two foals (her full sister Panty Raid and my one of my all time favorite horses Prom Shoes) where fond of Churchill. Still I hope she does well. Third either Joyful Victory or Zazu.

Churchill Downs - May 7, 2011

Race 11 - 6:24 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
STAKES Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I)

Purse $2,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds With An Entry Fee Of $25,000 Each And A Starting Fee Of $25,000 Each. One And One Fourth Miles.
1 1 Archarcharch (KY) 3/C L J K Court 126 W H Fires 10/1
2 2 Brilliant Speed (FL) 3/C LA J Rosario 126 T Albertrani 30/1
3 3 Twice the Appeal (KY) 3/C LA C H Borel 126 J Bonde 20/1
4 4 Stay Thirsty (KY) 3/C LA R A Dominguez 126 T A Pletcher 20/1
5 5 Decisive Moment (FL) 3/C LA K D Clark 126 J D Arias 30/1
6 6 Comma to the Top (FL) 3/G LA P A Valenzuela 126 P Miller 30/1
7 7 Pants On Fire (KY) 3/C LA R Napravnik 126 K J Breen 20/1
8 8 Dialed In (KY) 3/C LA J R Leparoux 126 N P Zito 4/1
9 9 Derby Kitten (KY) 3/C LA J Castellano 126 M J Maker 30/1
10 10 Twinspired (KY) 3/C LA M E Smith 126 M J Maker 30/1
11 11 Master of Hounds (KY) 3/C LA G K Gomez 126 A P O'Brien 30/1
12 12 Santiva (KY) 3/C LA S Bridgmohan 126 E Kenneally 30/1
13 13 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C LA R Maragh 126 K Ritvo 12/1
14 14 Shackleford (KY) 3/C LA J L Castanon 126 D L Romans 12/1
15 15 Midnight Interlude (KY) 3/C LA V Espinoza 126 B Baffert 10/1
16 16 Animal Kingdom (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 H G Motion 30/1
17 17 Soldat (KY) 3/C LA A Garcia 126 K P McLaughlin 12/1
18 18 Uncle Mo (KY) 3/C LA J R Velazquez 126 T A Pletcher 9/2
19 19 Nehro (KY) 3/C LA C S Nakatani 126 S M Asmussen 6/1
20 20 Watch Me Go (FL) 3/C L R Bejarano 126 K O'Connell 50/1

Juvy jinx! Juvy jinx! As you have already heard by now, Uncle Mo will not be going in this year's Derby. I do have some feelings on this (including why was he entered in the first place when he was not 100%), but I'll sound thoses if he doesn't run again. Because of that Animal Kingdom gets the big boost by getting Johnny V to replace Robby. Somewhat funny that Graham defeated Mo and Johnny in the Wood with Toby's Corner. The winner of the draw was Dialed In, the eight is the perfect postion for his type of running style. He could have first jump on everyone. The one who got the worst, Nehro and Watch Me Go. What not my boy Archarcharch? Pshh the 1 post is nothing. To tell you the truth, I almost cried when I saw he got the 1 hole. While many people make it out to be a death sentence, but he could be the one horse that might be okay with the one hole. Would I like him off the rail? Sure, you never want to be on the rail in the Derby, but it happens. Twice the Appeal has Calvin, but I don't even think he can win 3 in a row. Master of Hounds is a bit of a emigma. He's never run on dirt (niether has Animal Kingdom), he hasn't won a stakes race, he finished behind Soldat in the BCJT last year, and he has a jock that got bounced off the 3yo Champ last year. With that being said I was impressed by the UAE Derby runner up, the winner is going to the Epsom Oaks, so it will be interesting how he flatters her. There are three horses who have female trainers or rider. Of those three, I think Mucho Macho Man has the best chance. He would also become the youngest Derby winner and his trainer Kathy Rivto would become the first female trainer to win the race. Watch Me Go has the worst chance of the three no offence to his trainer Kathleen O'Connell. The third one is Pants on Fire, I somewhat want him to win since his jockey is a local, Rosie Napravnik would become the first woman rider to win the race. However, Louisiana hasn't been the best spot lately for horses (although Nehro did come back to finish second in the AR Derby).

So who is my pick? Post aside, I'm sticking with my heart and head. My pick for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is Archarcharch. I believe he will give Jon Court a Derby win after being taken off Line of David last year and I would love to see Jinks Fires come out of his Hall of Fame brother Earlie's shadow. Mucho Macho Man for second and Pants on Fire for third.

So that's it! I'll be back next week for reaction.

Derby and Oaks Vault Series: 1992 Derby, 2008 Oaks, 2000 Derby

The vault is back open! This time around from now till Weds, I will be doing three horses per day. 2 of them will be Derby winners and 1 Oaks winner. The reason is that I find there are more videos on YouTube of the Derby then there are of the Oaks. However, Weds Oaks will will have possibly the longest post recap ever (I'll give you a clue who it is her name begins with a R (wink, wink)). Today I will doing three races, the 1992 Derby, 2008 Oaks and 2000 Derby.

1992 Derby (Lil E. Tee)

The previous year's BC Juvenile winner Arazi was back, however he was not the same horse that he was as a 2yo. The French based colt was sent off as a mid priced shot. The favorite was the Irish bred Dr. Devious who was bought by Sidney Craig (the husband to Jenny Craig yes THAT Jenny Craig). Coming off a win in the AR Derby was Pine Bluff who had a chance to give Danzig his first Derby winner. Also coming out of that race was Little E. Tee who had finished second behind Pine Bluff in the AR Derby and was 3rd right behind him in the Southwest. Inbetween those two races he won the Jim Beam. In the end, the PA bred by At the Thresold shocked everybody to defeat fellow longshots Casual Lies and Dance Floor to give Pat Day his only Derby win.



Pine Bluff who finished 5th in the Derby extracted revenge on the Derby winner by winning the Preakness. With there being no chance for a Triple Crown, Lil E. Tee skipped the Belmont and did not race again at 3. Niether Pine Bluff or Lil E. Tee where named 3yo Champion Male. That went to AP Indy who won the Belmont and then defeated Older in the Breeders' Cup Classic to also earn Horse of the Year honors. He probley would have joined his dad Seattle Slew as a TC winner if he hadn't gotten ill before the Derby. Lil E. Tee stood in Kentucky until his death in 2009.

2008 Oaks (Proud Spell)

As a 2yo, Proud Spell was the second fiddle to Indian Blessing. As a 3yo she started the same way as well, until she defeated the two year old champ in the Fair Grounds Oaks. After a poor race in the Ashland, she was as haralded as she was after her defeat of Indian Blessing. The it horse was her own stablemate, Eight Belles. However, after the amazing filly decided to run in the Derby, the Proud Citizen filly went off as the favorite again and won over Little Belle and Pure Clan.



Of course the next day tragedy struck as Eight Belles broke down after her gallent second place finish and was euthanized. Proud Spell kept her late stablemate's legacy in tact though with wins in the Delaware Oaks, and Alabama to snag 3yo Filly honors over Music Note. Proud Spell now lives at had a Tiznow foal this year and has a Indian Charlie yearling.

2000 Derby (Fusaichi Pegasus)


1992, Pine Bluff finished was fifth. He indirectly made it into the winners circle in 2000. That's when his nephew the Mr. Prospector colt Fusaichi Pegasus became the first favorite since 1979 to win the Run for the Roses. FuPeg as he is effectionally called dam is Pine Bluff's full sister. In the race he defeated Trippi who has the Oaks favorite this year in R Heat Lightning, and arch rivals Hal's Hope and High Yield as well as super sire More Than Ready.



Red Bullet denied FuPeg the Triple Crown with a win in the Preakness. He was also denied 3yo Champion Male honors when Tiznow shocked the world to win what be the first of 2 BC Classic wins (and 1 HOY title). Fusaichi Pegasus now stands at Ashford Stud in Kentucky. His best US foal is Haskell winner Roman Ruler.

Tomorrow: 1979 Derby, 1987 Oaks, 1996 Derby

It's That Time

For my picks!

I'm not posting the fields for this weeks races as I think almost everyone has seen them. However I will be talking about each race one at a time. I'm not previewing every race.

Kentucky Juvy: It's really too early in the season to choose a 2yo who will do well the rest of the year, but Mission Impazable finished third in this race last year. For this reason, I'm going with Borrego's daughter Nina Fever.

Humana Distaff: Informed Decision lost last time out to Dr. Zic, and I think she loses again but this time to Rated Fiesty who could rebound after a poor three and four year old seasons.

Eight Belles: Hot Dixie Chick is obviously the horse to beat, but keep an eye on Bell's Shoes, third in the Martha Washington and Instant Racing. Could be a horse that flourishes in the second half of the season.

Churchill Sprint: WOW! One of the best fields on the weekend, my gut is telling me that Munnings will scratch, so I gotta go with Kensei and Warrior's Reward. Should Kensei win, it could be good news for his little brother later on in the day.

Alysheba: This is the race of the weeknd (other then the La T, Oaks, and Derby). Friesan Fire, Cool Coal Man (cross entered into the Churchill Sprint), my boy Prom Shoes, Macho Again, Bullsbay, Enriched. I would not be suprised if MA and Bull go 1-2 to set up a Stephen Foster rematch with a certin 4yo. I'll be very interested in how Enriched does outside of California, something his brother Lava Man couldn't do.

Woodford: Blues Street! Enough said, although I hope General Quarters does well in his turf debut.

La Troienne: After losing to Zardana, Rachel Alexandra will face her again. However this time, she's coming into the race better. Rachel should win this race with ease which could start the chatter of her vs Zenyatta talk again. Zardana while 3 for 3 on dirt, is also inconsistant and I believe has never been on a wet track. This race lost a key member when Careless Jewel was forced to miss the race due to a quarter crack. That's a huge sigh relief for Rachel fans as she was the biggest threat on the front end to Rachel. If all goes well, her next race could be a Woodward rematch in the Stephen Foster before possibly taking on Zenyatta in all likelyhood New York.

Oaks: It's Blind Luck's race to lose, however I'm going to go against her with three horses: Age of Humor, Quiet Temper and Evening Jewel. Age of Humor because I'm following her half brother and he's one of my favorite horses, Quiet Temper as she comes out of the hottest prep for the Oaks, the Fair Grounds Oaks and Evening Jewel for personal reasons. However, I would not be suprised if Blind Luck does win this race.

Derby: I'll be honest, I lost interest in this year's Derby when Rule was pulled out. However, my second, third and dark horse choices are still in. I think people are underestimating my pick as he wasn't the best horse in his stable, but now he is Todd Pletcher's best chance to get off the schind. I think Super Saver with Calvin "Bo-Rail" Borel will win this year's Kentucky Derby, his third Derby win in the last four years, Pletcher's first win, and WinStar's first win as an owner. Finishing in second I have Paddy O' Prado the maiden winner who finished in second in the Bluegrass, and in third I have my dark horse Backtalk. I think Devil May Care, will come up a little bit short of hitting the board. I wouldn't be suprised if Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible or Discreetly Mine win. I think Ice Box is overhyped, the 20 post will hurt Sidney's Candy and I don't think the rest of the field is that great this year. Could go down as one of the worst Derbys ever sadly.

The most important thing though is that all the horses come back safe and sound! I hope everybody enjoys the Derby, Oaks and the undercard races. Don't forget there is a Live Chat tomorrow night, and on Sunday a full recap of this weekend.

Derby and Oaks Preview Live Chat

I want to welcome everybody to the Derby and Oaks Preview Chat! If you are returning, we'll be talking about what we useally do, and if you are new don't be afraid to take part in the conversation. The rules are very easy to follow, but I'm posting them again so that everybody knows.

Rules:


1. Please be respectful of others.
2. Please keep foul language to a mininum.
3. Have Fun!

The Class of 2010

These are the names that will be known in Derby lore, will we have a favorite or an upset. Here are the fields for the 2010 Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.

11th (5:45)
Kentucky Oaks (G1)
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 It's Tea Time Garcia Alan Arnold George R II 121 LA 15-1
2 2 Jody Slew Mena M Calhoun W. B 121 LA 30-1
3 3 Quiet Temper Albarado R J Romans Dale 121 LA 10-1
4 4 Age of Humor Maragh R Maker Michael J 121 LA 30-1
5 5 Blind Luck Bejarano R Hollendorfer Jerry 121 L 6-5
6 6 Beautician Solis A McPeek Kenneth G 121 LA 15-1
7 7 Crisp Rosario J Sadler John W 121 LA 8-1
8 8 Tidal Pool Borel C H Lukas D Wayne 121 LA 8-1
9 9 Bella Diamante Smith M E Milligan Allen 121 LA 30-1
10 10 Champagne d'Oro Garcia M Guillot Eric 121 L 30-1
11 11 Evening Jewel Desormeaux K J Cassidy James 121 L 10-1
12 12 Ailalea Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 121 Blk-On LA 15-1
13 13 Amen Hallelujah Leparoux J R Dutrow, Jr. R E 121 L 8-1
14 14 Joanie's Catch Lopez P Rose Barry R 121 LA 30-1

It's Tea Time finished second to Evening Jewel in her last race and is a Wise Girl choice (instead of Wise Guy). Jody Slew and Quiet Temper battled in New Orleans with Jody Slew winning two races, and Quiet Temper 1. However, the race that Quiet Temper won has produced the last 2 winners of the Oaks (Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra). Age of Humor finished in front of the highey regarded Cascading at Turfway. What can I say about Blind Luck? She's coming out of a race that produced last year's winner (Rachel), she's a much better horse on dirt and she showed in her last race. Beautician maybe better a mile, Crisp did beat Blind Luck, but everything went wrong for BL that day. Tidal Pool was second to BL last time out at Oaklawn and has the defending jockey on her back. I don't know much about Bella Diamante, Champagane d' Oro is trying to become the second Medaglia d' Oro filly to win this race. Evening Jewel won the Ashland defeating It's Tea Time and She Be Wild. Alialea's trainer has won this race before, don't count her out. Amen Hallelujah is probley a better sprinter, and Joanie's Catch will have to channel her inner Hal's Hope to have a chance.

11th (6:24)
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)
1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Lookin At Lucky Gomez G K 126 Blk-Off LA
2 Ice Box Lezcano J 126 LA
3 Noble's Promise Martinez W 126 LA
4 Super Saver Borel C H 126 LA
5 Line of David Bejarano R 126 LA
6 Stately Victor Garcia Alan 126 LA
7 American Lion Flores D R 126 LA
8 Dean's Kitten Albarado R J 126 LA
9 Make Music for Me Rosario J 126 LA
10 Paddy O'Prado Desormeaux K J 126 LA
11 Devil May Care Velazquez J R 121 Blk-On LA
12 Conveyance Garcia M 126 LA
13 Jackson Bend Smith M E 126 LA
14 Mission Impazible Maragh R 126 LA
15 Discreetly Mine Castellano J J 126 LA
16 Awesome Act Leparoux J R 126 LA
17 Dublin Thompson T J 126 LA
18 Backtalk Mena M 126 L
19 Homeboykris Dominguez R A 126 L
20 Sidney's Candy Talamo J 126 LA

Lookin at Lucky sadly should be renamed Looking at Unlucky, I think the 1 hole does hurt him, but the fact a def. closer is on his outside is a plus. Ice Box is trying to become the third Florida Derby winner to wear the roses in 5 years (Barbaro in 06 and Big Brown in 08). Noble's Promise is supposed to be a miler, but has outrun his pedigree. Super Saver has the defending jockey on his back and could be Todd Pletcher's best chance to get off the Derby ofer. Line of David may scratch due to a possible muddy track, but he will be part of the pace if he stays in, he's the first Derby starter for his sire Lion Heart. Stately Victor is the first Derby starter for his sire Ghostzapper, won the Bluegrass last time out. American Lion could be Eion Harty's best chance at a Derby win, he was an asst. to Bob Baffert before. Dean's Kitten is the first starter for his sire Kitten's Joy, he won the Lane's End. Make Music for Me is replacing Interactif who was pulled for grass races later in the year, should he win, his trainer Alexis Barba will be the first female trainer to win the Derby. Paddy O' Prado went from maiden to graded stakes winner to G1 placed in 2 starts (broke his maiden on turf, finished second in the Bluegrass). Devil May Care will try to become the first filly to win the Derby since Winning Colors did in 1988, my one concern about her is her consistancy. Conveyance will be part of the pace, and could become the first Dubai owned horse to win the Derby. Jackson Bend was a horse who probley was a little bit overhyped for most of the year, but comes in off a second place finish in the Wood Memorial. Mission Impazible is could be the fastest one coming at the end of the race. Awesome Act will become the first Euro to win a TC race since Go and Go won the Belmont in 1990. Dublin has been hit and miss since his Hopeful win last year and is the first starter in the Derby for his sire Afleet Alex. Should the sloppy conditions arrive, that will help Backtalk, who is 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones' first starter. Homeboykris has Joe Torre as an owner... and that's it, he's the first Derby starter for his sire Roman Ruler. Sidney's Candy will have to overcome that 20 post with the twenty year old Joe Talemo in the saddle.

That's it those are your fields for this year's Oaks and Derby. Friday I will have my picks for both undercards and the Oaks and Derby. Don't forget there is a Live Chat tomorrow night at 7pm. I hope to see everyone there!

Early Oaks Picks

Last week I gave my early Derby picks, this week I'm doing the same thing, but with the Kentucky Oaks. Again I'll only be doing this once a month.

5. Bella Medaglia (Medaglia d' Oro): Just finished second in an allowance on Sunday, but broke her maiden pretty impressively at the Fair Grounds in December. My guess is she is Tiffany Lass or Silverbulletday bound. It helps that she is by the defending Oaks sire.

4. Biofuel (Stormin Feaver): If it wheren't for bumping with Negligee in the Juvenile Fillies, she might have won. The big concern is that she never has been on dirt, however she has beaten one of the best well bred now 3yo's in North America in Cascading (AP Indy out of a Storm Cat mare who is a 1/2 sister to Jazil, Casino Drive and Rags to Riches and a 3/4 sister to Man of Iron) up at Woodbine. Cascading turned around and won a stakes race in her next start. Biofuel's owner has won the Oaks before with Proud Spell, can he do it again with her.

3. She Be Wild (Offlee Wild): It's wierd when you put the Juvenile Fillies Champ at #3. Unlike Vale of York though she was not a flukey winner. Like Biofuel, she has yet to run on dirt, but that will change as she is prepping in Florida. The big reason why she is at #3 is that numbers 1 and 2 had two of the most impressive proformances late last year that I've seen as two year olds in a while.

2. Quiet Temper (Quiet American): It's been 12 years since Real Quiet "The Fish" won the Kentucky Derby, since then Quiet American has been known as the broodmare sire of Bernardini. However this could all change with Quiet Temper. She won the allowance race on Sunday that Bella Medaglia was in and previously won the Delta Princess. The same connections as Swift Temper, look for her to make noise this winter and spring.

1. Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision): Like I said in the Early Derby picks, of all the now 3yo's who started their careers at Calder last year. This could be the best one of them all. Although I don't think she will win the Eclipse Award for 2yo Filly (She Be Wild is your most likely winner), that's okay. The past 3 winners of the Oaks (Rags to Riches, Proud Spell and Rachel Alexandra) all did not win the Eclipse at 2, (Dreaming of Anna, Indian Blessing and Stardom Bound where the winners. The 3 Oaks winners did win the Eclipse at 3 however (Rags and Spell already have their awards, Rach's award was a slam dunk by the time Tom Durkin said on the Bravo Oaks coverage "She won by 20!"). She more then likely will be following the Rags to Riches route to the Oaks which she most likely will end up, dispite being #4 on my Derby list.

Look out for: Awesome Maria (Maria's Mon)

Again these are just early picks, the Oaks is a bit more diffacult to have a standout as the fillies IMO don't get as much coverage. The only two horses who really stood out the years that they won where Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra. We'll have to see where these fillies go until the final day in April.

Bird Town and Storm Flag Flying: The tale of two broodmares

Colors Flying, the first foal out of 2002 2yo champion female Storm Flag Flying (By Storm Cat) is finally making his first start this Saturday at Belmont.

Colors Flying
Your Comment: 2006 c AP Indy x Storm Flag Flying
Date: May 23, 2009
Track: Belmont Park
Race: 7 Distance: Six And One Half Furlongs
Surface: Dirt Age: 3U
Race Type: Maiden Special Weight
Purse: $43,000
Jockey: Raymundo D. Fuentes
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III

I don't know anything about his jockey and hopefully trainer Shug McGaughey has him ready for this start. Unfortanlly this will be the only SSF foal at the track for awhile, as she has not having foals hitting the track.

Storm Flag Flying is the granddaughter to two of the best Phipps horses to race in the late 80's. Undeafted super filly and 1988 Breeder's Cup Distaff winner Personal Ensign, and 1989 Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer, who is more known for his rivarly with that year's Derby and Preakness winner Sunday Silence. Those two are the parent's of SSF's dam, My Flag. I really good filly herself, she beat Cara Rafala (who would become the dam of Bernardini) in the 1995 BC Juvi Fillies. My Flag followed up her 2yo season with a third place finish in the Belmont, as well as winning the Coaching Club Oaks.

Storm Flag Flying, won the BC Juvi Filllies, like her mother did. She also won the Matron and Frizette Stakes. Her 3yo season didn't go as well, although she did finish second in the Comley S. As a 4yo, she won the Personal Ensign, a race named after her grandmother, as well as the Shuvee. She wrapped up her career with a 2nd place finish in the Breeder's Cup Distaff in 2004, a race her grandmother had won 16 years earlier. The winner, Ashado, would become one of the greatest fillies to race.

Since this time she's had Colors Flying, but that has been her only success, she aborted twice (Once to Seeking the Gold (now pensioned) and Distorted Humor), another foal passed away last year. That colt was also by Distorted Humor.

Storm Flag Flying's failure of getting foals to the track reminds me of another mare, Bird Town is the same age as SSF and she's had simlar problems.

A daughter of Cape Town out of the Storm Bird mare, Dear Birdie, Bird Town did not have the success that SSF had as a two year old. However the light went on at 3, by winning the KY Oaks and Acorn, she was named Champion 3yo female in 2003. Retired at 4, she was bred to Belmont winner Empire Maker. In 2005, a colt was born, unfortanlly a freak accident claimed his life. Her second foal, named Elusive Bird (By Elusive Quality), never made a start. I believe she went to Indian Charlie this year. She does have a Ghostzapper colt named Bird Zapper, a Bernardini yearling colt and had an Awesome Again colt this year.

So who has the edge? In number of foals, it's Bird Town, but number of foals getting to the track, it's Storm Flag Flying. Hopefully both of these broodmares will have success in years to come.

Remembering Sunline and Oaks pick

I had planned to preview the undercards, but then figured it would take up too much time. Sadly, I do have an article to post. It's about the Aussie champion Sunline who lost her battle against laminatis, link. Back to back winner of the Cox Plate, she was Makybe Diva before Makybe became a superstar. She will be buried in New Zealand.

My Oaks picks: Rachel Alexandra, Justwhistledixie, Tweeter/Gabby's Golden Gal (either order)

Good luck to everyone on their better, I will have my Derby pick tomarrow night.

Breakdown of Oaks and Derby

Okay here is the plan for the rest of the week. Today will be the breakdown of both races, tomarow I preview the undercards for both days and choose my Oaks winner (Although it should be no suprise), meanwhile Friday will be final thoughts on the Derby and my pick for the Kentucky Derby!

Here is the G1 Kentucky Oaks

1. Tweeter
2. Be Fair
3. Stone Legacy
4. Gabby's Golden Gal
5. Justwhistledixie
6. Rachel Alexandra
7. Nan
8. Flying Spur

For the first time in awhile, there are no G1 winners. It's really a two horse race, but I'll talk about everyone. Tweeter has only a maiden win, but she might do well here as her half sister won the Kentucky Oaks in 2003 as the first part of the NY sweep with Funny Cide (I should note that Bird Town is a KY bred, but her owner and trainer live in New York), D.Wayne Lukas (Who did not train Bird Town), trains her. Right next her is her stablemate Be Fair and next to her is their other stablemate Stone Legacy, who ironicly is by Tweeter's 3/4 brother 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone. Gabby's Golden Gal could start a big weekend for her trainer Bob Baffert, coming off a win in Sunland Oaks she is by Medaglia d'Oro (Who I'll talk about more in a little bit). Justwhistledixie who will be the second choice is next to Gabby, she won down at Gulfstream last time out and is on a 5 race winning streak. Then there is the favorite and the other MDO filly in the race, Rachel Alexandra. Let can I say about my fellow Rachel, lets see.. she's on a four race win streak, she's won in the slop, on a fast track, at Oaklawn, at Fair Grounds and most importantly at Churchill Downs. Nan had been running behind Stardom Bound in Cali and Flying Spur was second behind Rach in the Fair Grounds Oaks.

And now to the Kentucky Derby!

1. West Side Bernie (30-1)
2. Musket Man (20-1)
3. Mr Hot Stuff (30-1)
4. Advice (30-1)
5. Hold Me Back (15-1)
6. Friesan Fire (5-1)
7. Papa Clem (20-1)
8. Mine that Bird (50-1)
9. Join in the Dance (50-1)
10. Regal Ransom (30-1)
11. Chocolate Candy (20-1)
12. General Quarters (20-1)
13. I Want Revenge (3-1)
14. Atomic Rain (50-1)
15. Dunkirk (4-1)
16. Pioneerof the Nile (4-1)
17. Summer Bird (50-1)
18. Nowhere to Hide (50-1)
19. Desert Party (15-1)
20. Flying Private (50-1)

West Side Bernie was second behind I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Musket Man won the IL Derby last time out, and also won the Tampa Bay Derby. Mr. Hot Stuff is the full brother to Col. John and one of three WinStar horses in the race. His trainer Eion Harty won the Dubai World Cup in March with Well Armed who like Mr. Hot and John is by Tiznow, maybe good omen? Advice won the Lexington 2 weeks ago and is the second WinStar horse, and Hold Me Back, the Lane's End winner is the final WinStar horse. AP Indy has a Preakness and Belmont wins as a sire, this could be his best chance to win the Derby with Friesan Fire. The Derby gods also owe his trainer, jockey and co-owner some good news as well. Papa Clem won the AR Derby, upsetting former favorite Old Fashioned. Mine That Bird, really doesn't have a chance IMO. Join in the Dance joins Advice and Dunkirk as the triple threat from Todd Pletcher. Regal Ransom upset his stablemate in the UAE Derby. Chocolate Candy finished second behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, and should take to dirt with no problem. General Quarters is the Cinderella horse in the race, from 20k claimer to G1 winner. I Want Revenge is a nice horse with a young jockey and a trainer who will be suspended starting the day after the Derby. He is the deserving favorite after winning a troubled trip in the Wood. Atomic Rain is a late addition to the Derby. Dunkirk is lightly raced, but very talented. Pioneerof the Nile won the SA Derby last time out, his sire was second in the 03 Derby. Summer Bird is by Birdstone and he closes like daddy, maybe not Derby material, but look out for him in the Belmont. Nowhere to Hide is trained by Birdstone (and Bird Town)'s trainer Nick Zito. He was added to field after the defection of Win Willy. Last, but not least, Flying Private will try to win from the 20 hole like Big Brown..

Well there you have it, the breakdown of the Oaks and Derby. Stay tuned for my picks in the next two days.

Win Willy out and lets make a tie in the brackets

Well Willy is out :(. And Nowhere to Hide is in. Ah well, there's nothing that I can do. The Oaks field has been announced and will be posting on here later today along with the Derby field. Stay tuned for a special second post later today. And this time I mean it.

Also I'm calling a tie in the brackets as I just don't have the time to write them up and post them. Sorry everyone!

Derby week starts out with Quality Road out

Well Derby Week starts with a bang with one of the favorites, Quality Road, now out due to a new quarter crack. Link His jockey, John Velazquez will now ride Mr. Hot Stuff.

Friesan Fire had a fast workout today, which was at 5 furlongs. While I'm a bit concerned that about the layoff, I'm not as concerned as I should be. The reason being is his trainer, Larry Jones had a colt workout the fastest pre-Derby workout in 2007. What did the colt do, almost win the Derby. Of course I'm talking about Hard Spun. Many thought that he left his race on the track, but that didn't happen. Friesan Fire is Jones' best and last chance to finally win the Derby, as he has decided to retire from public training after the Breeder's Cup.

Chocolate Candy had the second fastest workout today (behind Friesan Fire) at same distance. I love the jockey switch to Mike Smith, and they could probley suprise people and maybe even steal it.

Rachel Alexandra had the bullet for 4 furlongs, she is so ready for her showdown with Justwhistledixie. Oaks PP's get drawn tomarrow, and hopefully those two go 1-2.

The final brakets matchups will come out tomarrow, in a special two post day.

Edit (4:52 pm) Too lazy to make a new post, but I would like to share this video from Bloodhorse.com, they are doing a special on the previous Derby winners from 95 to last year. The three exceptions are Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Charismatic as they stand in Japan (Charm and Charismatic) and PA (Fish, RQ's nickname) respectivly. The rest are standing/living in Kentucky (Funny Cide lives at KHP since he is a gelding).

In matter of fact here is Funny's vid: