Zayat Karma strikes again!

Did you hear something Sunday morning? That my friends was people tearing up their Derby future tickets with Eskendereya on them. Today, Esky was declared out of this year's Derby due to an injury. For now, Jackson Bend is on the bubble and Backtalk could be the last horse out. The reason why I say for now is that if Interactif and Devil May Care both go to the Derby (Instead of American Turf and the Oaks repectivly), then both he and Paddy O Prado would be out. Before I talk about why I think Interactif belongs, but Devil May Care doesn't in a paragraph, however I'm going to explain why I think Esky's departure is a case of a little thing I call Zayat Karma.

If you remember from last year, Ahmed Zayat and Mark Allen tried to pull a stunt which would have left Rachel Alexandra on the outside looking in for the Preakness. This would have given Zayat's Pioneerof the Nile, the runner up from the Derby a better chance to turn the table on Allen and Dr. Lenoard Blach's Mine That Bird who won the Derby. MTB would have gotten back his jockey Calvin Borel. Of course that was foiled by Marylou Whitney how said she would not enter Luv Gov if it was going to keep Rachel out. Rachel got in, and well the rest they say is history. Since then, things haven't gone exactly right for Zayat. Here is an example:

• Pioneerof the Nile retiring due to injury after the Preakness
• Thorn Song bolting in a stakes race, then going MIA (I believe he is at a hospital in California right now)
• Zensational losing the BC Sprint, then losing the Eclipse for Male Sprinter to Kodiak Kowboy.
• And to top it off, he got sued

So things have not gone Ahmed Zayat's way.

The two horses to keep an eye on if they go are Interactif and Devil May Care, both are trained by Todd Pletcher (as are Rule (who is now questionable for the Derby, hopefully he pulls out. I think a mile and quarter is too far for him. Plus he had a horrible work yesterday dispite getting the bullet), Super Saver, Mission Impazable, Esky and Discreetly Mine). Interactif is owned by the same connections of Goldikova, the 2 time BC Mile winner. While he hasn't won this year, Interactif has something that Sidney's Candy doesn't: a win over dirt. He probley is a little bit better on turf/synth, but he's by Broken Vow who of course is the sire of Unbridled Belle (another Pletcher trainee), out of a Broad Brush mare who in turn is out of the great late Personal Ensign. So he's got the female family to go a mile and quarter and he's got a sire who has a G1 winner who has won at a mile and a quarter. Devil May Care however, should not. Dispite being by Malibu Moon out of Regal Ransom mare, I'm not sold of her going. Her half brother is Regal Ransom, and dispite being by one of the hottest sires around in Distorted Humor, he failed at the two times he ran at a mile and a quarter. The other thing is, she has been inconsistant throughout her career. Yes she's a G1 winner, but since then she has put together 1 good race, defeating Amen Hallujah who is likely a sprinter, and Christine Daae who ended up being overhyped. Yes DMC is running faster then the males in workouts, however races are a different monster. She's not even the best 3yo filly, that honor belongs to Blind Luck who should also be Derby bound, but will be the overwhelming favorite for the Oaks instead.

While I'm not a huge huge fan of fillies going against the boys (yes I know it's done in Europe and it was done in the US more often before, but that's not the point I'm making), I can understand why they want to face the boys now. However I would love to see DMC in the Preakness, if they want to take on the boys. Yes it's a sixteenth shorter then the Derby, but it's a smaller field (only 14 are allowed, which is the same for the Oaks and Belmont as well), most of the runners are also rans, the winner, and fresh faces, and she would have 1 extra day of rest then the rest of the field. With that being said, this year's Preakness maybe tougher then useal because horses such as Backtalk, Sutsuko maybe left out. We'll find out tomorrow where she lands.

As for this weekend's races, it was a matter of what the heck happend to D' Funnybone? He got a horrendous ride in the Withers. I'm happy for Afleet Again after throwing some clunkers, and Ibboyee, all that work and he settles for second and how about the third place finsher. IMO Ibboyee is now the best 3yo sprinter (IMO Afleet Again can run at longer distances), with D' Funnybone being a little bit behind. With that being said, at a shorter distance I think D' Funnybone can turn the tables on Afleet Again. At Churchill, Calvin Borel showed... that he's the King of Churchill! Now if things go his way on Friday on a certin 4yo filly, we could see her back in the Winners Circle (it was confirmed that Rachel will go the La Trioanne next).

And with that, Derby Week offically begins. Everyday until except Thursday which will be the Live Chat and Saturday also a chat day, a new post will be posted. So check back tomorrow for Derby talk.

The Good Ole Switcheroo

You may or may not have heard: Eskendereya, who is on the top of many people's Derby lists (mine is not one of them), will be skipping the Florida Derby and going to the Wood Memorial instead. His stablemate Rule will be replacing him in the G1 race at Gulfstream this upcoming Saturday. This means that the son of Roman Ruler will be going into the Run to the Roses on a six week layoff. It had been previously announced that Eskendereya would be going to the Florida Derby, and Rule would be going to the Wood. Then I read that he might be going to the LA Derby. That's when my head started to spin a little bit.

I'm not a huge fan of the Florida Derby, even though both Barbaro and Big Brown won the race before their wins in the KY Derby. Gulfstream is a speed favoring track which is to Rule's advantage, but there are concerns with distance limitations (he seems to get tired towards the end of his past 2 races, the Delta Jackpot and the Sam F. Davis, both of which he won). His dam Rockcide's side I don't see him having too much problem. Even though she never broke her maiden, Rockcide is the half sister to two winners Coincide (who now is standing somewhere in South America, I think Venuzuela), and of course Funny Cide. Her sire, Personal Flag won at a mile and quarter and is a full brother to great Personal Ensign. Roman Ruler's best races where at a mile and eighth or less, although he did finish third in the Travers.

That being said, Rule has already gone a mile and sixteenth, so a mile and a eighth shouldn't be a problem. And hopefully a mile and a quarter either, but only time will tell. Other horses heading to the FL Derby include: Ice Box, Soaring Empire, Radiohead, and Lententor. Yes THAT Lententor the full brother to Barbaro. This is the big race that I will be previewing on Friday.

In a few weeks, there will be a post on one of these three fillies. A few days before I post the post, I will announce who the filly who is going to be profiled, and the winner will have bragging rights.

Here are your three choices:







So it's either Megahertz, Riskaverse or My Typhoon who I'm profiling. Leave a comment on this post (please allow time for me to approve the post), and the one(s) who guess right will then be put into a drawing and the winner will be able to write a post about their favorite horse. Stay tuned for more details on this soon

It's Todd's World

What a weekend for Todd Pletcher, three Derby preps, three wins. Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star and Connemara in the El Camino Real Derby. His mentor Wayne Lukas didn't have a shabby weekend himself as Dublin finished second in the Southwest. However, for the next 10 days, Pletcher will be on the sidelines serving his suspention that goes back to Wait A While's DQ in the BC Filly/Mare Turf. While many people think Eskendereya served notice with his FOY win, I'm worried something I would like to call the Zayat karma will end up ruining him (he's owned by the embattled Ahmed Zayat).

Is Jody Slew this year's Summerly? Much like the 05 KY Oaks winner, she won the Silverbulletday. Outnosing Quiet Temper who bounced back from a subpar effort in her last race. Devil May Care, a half sister to Regal Ransom had yet another bad race after finishing last in the BC Juvy Fillies. Jody Slew should be the favorite for the Fair Grounds Oaks, not bad for a filly who was bought to be a turf horse.

In other news right now, Goldikova's Mile win is looking better. Karlein and Courages Cat, both who lost to the two time champ both won this weekend. With Karlein upsetting the defending Turf Male Eclipse winner Gio Ponti. However, it should be noted that Gio was restless in the gate and the winner won by a nose. Still, I think the third one will be the hardest for Europe's Leading Lady if the Americans continue to improve in the Mile ranks.

The next two weekends are a bit weak for Derby preps, with the Sham this Saturday and Gotham the following weekend. However, I will have previews for other great races that are upcoming.

More to come later on this week!